Can we actually advance to the post-season?

[socaloil]

Some fresh faces, a new coach, <mod edit> are a damn good start but if we look back to last season, and get markedly hypothetical, it might not be as daunting a task as our 62 points would have us believe.

Starting with the games against the East, because those 4 in October were the ONLY bright spot all year, we went 15-14-3 for 33/64 pts. If not for 2 skills competition losses (both to Columbus) and Hoffman’s lucky (7) we’re at 65 points in April. 5 games were lost by one goal in regulation. Somebody puts one more in per game and we end with 70 pts. An additional one in OT and we are at 75. Still out of the playoffs but that’s just 11 goals + 2 SO wins away from earning 13 extra points from our Eastern cousins.

The West:
OTL = 11 (5 of them skills comp). A mere 11 more goals at the right time and we have 86 pts. Still in the hunt come April.

1 Goal Regulation Loss = 10 (two more if one counts the 0-2 empty-netters to Van and NYR, but since we were shutout I’m not counting them…merely getting fancifully speculative because I’m bored but optimistic).

One more goal in these games gives us 96 points (hello, Calgary) and two more almost gives us the bloody West.

Thus: 34.5% of last season’s games were lost by 1 goal. 7 in Shootouts, 7 in OT and 15 could have yielded a point with 1 more lousy goal and two points with 2 goals.

Could McDavid, a healthier Hall, Korp, Let, Rein, Sek, more of Drai, Klef and Nurse have helped us score 29-44 extra goals (at the proper times, of course)? I say, Yes! We’re going to the playoffs this season because as bad as last season was, more than one-third of our games could have easily gone another way.

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[Soundwave]

Talbot/Nilsson/Scrivens will have to play incredibly well for it to happen.

There's talent but you can still see a lot of the roster flaws from last season.

Not physical enough either we have too much dead weight on the roster that doesn't bring a physical element to the game to compliment the skill.

Purcell, Ference, Nikitin need to go, and if Yakupov can't start finishing then he needs to be replaced with a bigger, more physical forward too.

 

[The Bored Man]

I would be shocked.

 

[RuneMcEres]

I would be shocked.

I wouldn't be shocked, but I'd be very pleasantly surprised. I'd be shocked if we miss the playoffs by more than 20 points, very disappointed if we miss them by more than 15.

 

[Aceboogie]

No, no, no, no

Its pre season and these are ahl level teams.

Wed need extreme luck to do so. But pre season means nothing

 

[McJeety McJeet]

If Calgary and Colorado can make the playoffs in the years they did so can we.

 

[Jumptheshark]

no--I do not think we make the post season--too many problems on the back end right now

we wont be knocked out in November this year--my guess late march early april--which is for me the goal

so for in the preseason we have faced mostly AHL teams--the tests start coming shortly

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think we CAN...but I don't think we will. Too many better teams are above us.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

 

[Mr Positive]

if calgary could do it last year, we certainly could this year

(edit: beat me to it McJeet!)

 

[Rafters]

If the NHL has a major crackdown on penalties.....I could see the Oilers winning a few games on PP goals

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

I don't think we will. But if we do I wouldn't be surprised either.

 

[Aerchon]

No.

West is too strong.

From what I have seen in preseason we have a long ways to go still.

The only team I have watched this year that seems genuinely worse than the Oilers so far is Vancouver. Not that preseason is good gauge with all the partial line ups but for system/team play Oilers are visibly not there yet.

Hypothetically its possible but certainly unlikely.

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

If Talbot is a top-15 goalie, McDavid has an outstanding Calder-winning season, Sekera emerges as a #1 defenceman, Klefbom emerges as a solid #2-3 defenceman and Yakupov has a breakout, 30 goal year, maybe.

 

[Mr Positive]

If Talbot is a top-15 goalie, McDavid has an outstanding Calder-winning season, Sekera emerges as a #1 defenceman, Klefbom emerges as a solid #2-3 defenceman and Yakupov has a breakout, 30 goal year, maybe.

imo if all that happens, we're virtually guaranteed a spot. If anything we would be making a run for the division. Low seeded playoff teams generally have huge holes in their roster. We're not that far off of at least bubble status

 

[McHaNugYakEbNurDra]

I think September is too early to be thinking about playoffs, though I hope every player trying to make the team believes the Oilers can make the playoffs, or else send them down to the AHL and hope they believe they can help the Condors make the playoffs (or else send them down to the ECHL ).

I'd rather look at the season like Bob Hartley did last year (I know, I hate to use the Flames for anything, but they did manage to pull off one of the best single season turnarounds in recent memory).

He broke the season down into 7 game segments and pushed the Flames to win each of those 7 game series. I like the logic, in that you don't start the season thinking you have to get 100 points or close to it, but rather that you have to win 4 out of the next 7 games. Once those 7 games are done you move on to the next 7 games and continue. I like it, especially for a team with fragile confidence like I expect the Oilers to have to start the season.

So I think the better question is can the Oilers win their first seven game series of the regular season:

Oct 08 @ St Louis
Oct 10 @ Nashville
Oct 13 @ Dallas
Oct 15 St Louis
Oct 17 @ Calgary
Oct 18 @ Vancouver
Oct 21 Detroit

In my mind, there is no reason we shouldn't be able to win at least 4 of those games (don't ask me which 4 though as that's more difficult to predict), and if we can, then we will be off to a good start for the season. If we don't, it's not like the season is over, but with each 7 game 'series' lost, the idea of meaningful games in March/April because much less likely.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

We would have to improve by 35 points on last year.

We could improve 25 points, and win 10 more games, and still fall well short of the playoffs.

Sure it's possible, but it isn't very likely.

 

[McJeety McJeet]

if calgary could do it last year, we certainly could this year

(edit: beat me to it McJeet!)

That's the short and sweet answer, anything can and does happen.

The long answer is obviously a lot has to go right. We need solid goaltending, Klefbom and Schultz need to take a step forward, one of Nikitin or Ference need to get their head out of their ass and play like a respectable 5 or 6 defenceman, etc, etc, etc.

I will say that I believe with this group when it clicks it's going to click in a hurry. I think a big leap in point totals year over year is more likely than a slow progression (like 14th place last year then 10th place this year then 7th the year after and so on). The three pairings of Nuge/Eberle, Hall/McDavid, and Drai/Yak could be an absolute nightmare for the opposition. In other words I think the line between "haha, we're playing the Oilers tonight" and "oh **** we're playing the Oilers tonight" is thinner than most believe.

 

[Hockey Nightmare]

Well, only one team in the nhl has 4 preseason wins so far...

 

[T-Funk]

Well, only one team in the nhl has 4 preseason wins so far...

5 isn't it?

 

[Mr Positive]

We would have to improve by 35 points on last year.

We could improve 25 points, and win 10 more games, and still fall well short of the playoffs.

Sure it's possible, but it isn't very likely.

first off, Eakins was the wrong coach for us, and so our record was artificially handicapped. Just having McLellan on the roster gives us another 15 points, and that's conservative. Nelson got 39 points in 44 games, while the roster was in chaos with trades and injuries. That's a 73 point pace, an 11 point improvement right there, and McLellan is better than Nelson I'm sure (no offense to Nelson). Then factor in all the roster changes we've had, and natural development we can assume by our young players maturing, and it's not a huge stretch

 

[Hockey Nightmare]

5 isn't it?

And so it is

 

[Rafters]

I'm just hoping for meaningful games in December......its been a while

 

[McShogun99]

Someone did the math previously on here and if we had league average goaltending our goals against would have went down by around 86 goals. That puts us right in the middle of the league goal differential wise, which makes us a bubble team. Also, allowing less goals would improve the teams confidence which would probably lead to a few more goals being scored. Bottom line is if the team can maintain a .915 SP or greater then they make the playoffs.

 

[Sheikyerbouti]

Absolutely possible. Moreso with 3v3.

This roster is good and we have some depth. Outside of Chi, Ana, Stl, Nash, we are competitive.

I want 40 wins this season!