Unless there is some situation where they move down with their pick and make a subsequent trade to move up where a team takes less value.
Take this
chart for example...
Assume the Leafs get the 3rd OA pick, and the Pens pick is 17th OA.
If the Leafs anticipate their target player being available at 6th OA (Chychrun?) and see Nylander going 7th OA, here's what *could* possibly work.
Based on the chart, moving down grants a bonus value (historically based on NHL trades, see my comment history circa last draft) of about 15-25%. So let's assume Leafs bargain hard and get 25% bonus value. 2,200 * 1.25 = 2,750
So moving down to 6th OA would require an additional 1,150 points, or roughly a packaging of the 6th OA and 13th OA picks.
So then to move up from 17th OA, to land the 7th OA, and having the 13th OA to add to that, the Leafs have a combined total of: 2,100, but moving up has a penalty of 15-25%, so assuming 20% penalty, that leaves 1,680, which easily gets the 7th OA along with maybe a 4th rounder to boot.
But of course things get complicated if the Leafs pick is worse or the Pens pick is worse. But I would trust in the Leafs' negotiating prowess to get better value moving down than the penalty incurred moving up.
Curious how others feel about taking 3+17 or 6+7 or 6+13+17? Which package of picks would be your choice?