- Oct 31, 2007
- 39,167
- 40,893
First, let me preface this by saying I'm not a stats guy. English was always my subject in school, Math was not. I have no idea if this is relevant or if anything can be done with it, but I thought it was cool.
This is an idea I've been tossing around in my head for a couple years now. I've always been fascinated in the advantage home-ice gives a team, not only by way of the rulebook (faceoffs, shootouts, line changes, etc.), but in the "intangible" effects, such as Detroit's "springy" boards and each arena's individual crowd. Each fanbase is different, and I've always been curious if those differences could effect the way the team plays. Whether attendance has an effect on a team's performance, how "hostile" a crowd can be (either to opposing teams or to the home team), etc.
So I started the year after the lockout (since that seemed like the most logical place to start). At first, the idea was simply to see which team racks up the most wins on home ice and claim they've taken advantage of the "home ice advantage" the most. But it didn't make much sense, since a good team is going to have more wins regardless of whether they're at home or away. And unsurprisingly, the two teams that have the most wins since the lockout (Detroit and San Jose) also have the most wins on home ice (189 and 182 respectively). It seemed disadvantageous to measure those teams against teams that have, historically, been bottom-feeders.
So instead, I decided to do winning percentage. That is, of a team's total wins, how many of them came on home ice? This puts all teams on equal ground, since all teams have 41 home games, and whether they have a really good season or a really poor season often doesn't change the percentage that a team wins at home.
First, the teams in alphabetical order, for those who are just interested in their team's home-ice advantage record:
And now the teams in order of percentages:
I've got each team's record for each individual year, as well as a "5-year mark" (right after the 09 season) to compare which teams change position every half-decade.
But mostly, I can't find any discernible pattern as to why Boston and Philly seem to always struggle to win at home (or have such success away from home, if you look at it another way) and why Calgary and Columbus have led the NHL in home success for the past couple years.
So I've come here to see if any of the HF users can explain why some teams struggle on home ice and some succeed.
This is an idea I've been tossing around in my head for a couple years now. I've always been fascinated in the advantage home-ice gives a team, not only by way of the rulebook (faceoffs, shootouts, line changes, etc.), but in the "intangible" effects, such as Detroit's "springy" boards and each arena's individual crowd. Each fanbase is different, and I've always been curious if those differences could effect the way the team plays. Whether attendance has an effect on a team's performance, how "hostile" a crowd can be (either to opposing teams or to the home team), etc.
So I started the year after the lockout (since that seemed like the most logical place to start). At first, the idea was simply to see which team racks up the most wins on home ice and claim they've taken advantage of the "home ice advantage" the most. But it didn't make much sense, since a good team is going to have more wins regardless of whether they're at home or away. And unsurprisingly, the two teams that have the most wins since the lockout (Detroit and San Jose) also have the most wins on home ice (189 and 182 respectively). It seemed disadvantageous to measure those teams against teams that have, historically, been bottom-feeders.
So instead, I decided to do winning percentage. That is, of a team's total wins, how many of them came on home ice? This puts all teams on equal ground, since all teams have 41 home games, and whether they have a really good season or a really poor season often doesn't change the percentage that a team wins at home.
First, the teams in alphabetical order, for those who are just interested in their team's home-ice advantage record:
Code:
Anaheim - 2005-11 - 293 wins, 170 home (58.02%)
Boston - 2005-11 - 292 wins, 148 home (50.68%)
Buffalo - 2005-11 - 312 wins, 165 home (52.88%)
Calgary - 2005-11 - 295 wins, 174 home (58.98%)
Carolina - 2005-11 - 288 wins, 165 home (57.29%)
Chicago - 2005-11 - 284 wins, 160 home (56.33%)
Colorado - 2005-11 - 277 wins, 154 home (55.59%)
Columbus - 2005-11 - 238 wins, 140 home (58.82%)
Dallas - 2005-11 - 305 wins, 166 home (54.42%)
Detroit - 2005-11 - 352 wins, 189 home (53.69%)
Edmonton - 2005-11 - 236 wins, 130 home (55.08%)
Florida - 2005-11 - 251 wins, 141 home (56.17%)
Los Angeles - 2005-11 - 267 wins, 146 home (54.68%)
Minnesota - 2005-11 - 282 wins, 164 home (58.15%)
Montreal - 2005-11 - 286 wins, 156 home (54.54%)
Nashville - 2005-11 - 320 wins, 181 home (56.56%)
New Jersey - 2005-11 - 326 wins, 178 home (54.60%)
New York (I) - 2005-11 - 235 wins, 134 home (57.02%)
New York (R) - 2005-11 - 304 wins, 162 home (53.28%)
Ottawa - 2005-11 - 296 wins, 160 home (54.05%)
Philadelphia - 2005-11 - 288 wins, 145 home (50.34%)
Phoenix - 2005-11 - 278 wins, 149 home (53.23%)
Pittsburgh - 2005-11 - 308 wins, 168 home (54.54%)
San Jose - 2005-11 - 339 wins, 182 home (53.68%)
St. Louis - 2005-11 - 256 wins, 146 home (57.03%)
Tampa Bay - 2005-11 - 260 wins, 150 home (57.69%)
Toronto - 2005-11 - 253 wins, 135 home (53.35%)
Vancouver - 2005-11 - 329 wins, 180 home (54.71%)
Washington - 2005-11 - 294 wins, 166 home (56.46%)
Winnipeg - 2005-11 - 266 wins, 145 home (54.51%)
And now the teams in order of percentages:
Code:
1. Calgary - 2005-11 - 295 wins, 174 home (58.98%)
2. Columbus - 2005-11 - 238 wins, 140 home (58.82%)
3. Minnesota - 2005-11 - 282 wins, 164 home (58.15%)
4. Anaheim - 2005-11 - 293 wins, 170 home (58.02%)
5. Tampa Bay - 2005-11 - 260 wins, 150 home (57.69%)
6. Carolina - 2005-11 - 288 wins, 165 home (57.29%)
7. St. Louis - 2005-11 - 256 wins, 146 home (57.03%)
8. New York (I) - 2005-11 - 235 wins, 134 home (57.02%)
9. Nashville - 2005-11 - 320 wins, 181 home (56.56%)
10. Washington - 2005-11 - 294 wins, 166 home (56.46%)
11. Chicago - 2005-11 - 284 wins, 160 home (56.33%)
12. Florida - 2005-11 - 251 wins, 141 home (56.17%)
13. Colorado - 2005-11 - 277 wins, 154 home (55.59%)
14. Edmonton - 2005-11 - 236 wins, 130 home (55.08%)
15. Vancouver - 2005-11 - 329 wins, 180 home (54.71%)
16. Los Angeles - 2005-11 - 267 wins, 146 home (54.68%)
17. New Jersey - 2005-11 - 326 wins, 178 home (54.60%)
18. Montreal - 2005-11 - 286 wins, 156 home (54.54%)
18. Pittsburgh - 2005-11 - 308 wins, 168 home (54.54%)
20. Winnipeg - 2005-11 - 266 wins, 145 home (54.51%)
21. Dallas - 2005-11 - 305 wins, 166 home (54.42%)
22. Ottawa - 2005-11 - 296 wins, 160 home (54.05%)
23. Detroit - 2005-11 - 352 wins, 189 home (53.69%)
24. San Jose - 2005-11 - 339 wins, 182 home (53.68%)
25. Toronto - 2005-11 - 253 wins, 135 home (53.35%)
26. New York (R) - 2005-11 - 304 wins, 162 home (53.28%)
27. Phoenix - 2005-11 - 278 wins, 149 home (53.23%)
28. Buffalo - 2005-11 - 312 wins, 165 home (52.88%)
29. Boston - 2005-11 - 292 wins, 148 home (50.68%)
30. Philadelphia - 2005-11 - 288 wins, 145 home (50.34%)
I've got each team's record for each individual year, as well as a "5-year mark" (right after the 09 season) to compare which teams change position every half-decade.
But mostly, I can't find any discernible pattern as to why Boston and Philly seem to always struggle to win at home (or have such success away from home, if you look at it another way) and why Calgary and Columbus have led the NHL in home success for the past couple years.
So I've come here to see if any of the HF users can explain why some teams struggle on home ice and some succeed.