Cale Makar vs Connor Bedard, with a twist

[majormajor]

I'm taking Makar.

This year's Makar is dinged up but I know what he can do when healthy. Makar is in that group with Mackinnon and Matthews as the #2-#4 most valuable assets in the league. Bedard might join that group or maybe be in the #5-#10 group below it, maybe even after #10. So you go with Makar.

 

[cneely]

Isn't Makar like the highest scoring defenceman of all time at his number of games played? I remember him just edging out Bobby Orr for the fastest 300 points by a defenceman or whatever.

Yes, but he started when he was 20 so he was a lot more developed and polished. He was pretty much PPG right out of the gate. Bobby Orr had 41 and 31 points his first 2 years so his pace would have been much slower per game over his first 300.

Different eras so its really hard to compare, but Makar's career high is 86 points (he's very likely to beat that this year). At Makar's age, Orr had seasons of 120 pts, 139 pts, 117 points, and 101 points.

Makar is fantastic, I just don't think he's top 5 all time like some are touting him.

 

[authentic]

Yes, but he started when he was 20 so he was a lot more developed and polished. He was pretty much PPG right out of the gate. Bobby Orr had 41 and 31 points his first 2 years so his pace would have been much slower per game over his first 300.

Different eras so its really hard to compare, but Makar's career high is 86 points (he's very likely to beat that this year). At Makar's age, Orr had seasons of 120 pts, 139 pts, 117 points, and 101 points.

Makar is fantastic, I just don't think he's top 5 all time like some are touting him.

He’s not Bobby Orr but he’s better than Niedermayer and will go down as better than Leetch. He could easily end up top 5 all-time the way he’s trending and very few defenseman have a better playoff run than he had in 2022 or a better start to their playoff and regular season career either.

 

[cneely]

He’s not Bobby Orr but he’s better than Niedermayer and will go down as better than Leetch. He could easily end up top 5 all-time the way he’s trending and very few defenseman have a better playoff run than he had in 2022 or a better start to their playoff and regular season career either.

Meh. I don't see it, but maybe.

He's more of a Phil Housley type for me.

 

[Voight]

I think Makar gets a bit overrated around here. He's awesome, no doubt, but I wouldn't expect him to be a top 10 defenceman of all time, more of a Leetch / Neidermayer type. Certainly not horrible, but not generational.

I do think Bedard could turn out as good as Crosby, and I would consider Crosby generational.

Really? I mean, injuries are apart of the game but without them Makar would have won the last 3 Norris'.

I dont have the data handy but I imagine not many defensemen have been nominated for the Norris three straight seasons, and I'm sure the pool is even smaller if you do four straight (Makar should be nominated this year).

 

[cneely]

Really? I mean, injuries are apart of the game but without them Makar would have won the last 3 Norris'.

I dont have the data handy but I imagine not many defensemen have been nominated for the Norris three straight seasons, and I'm sure the pool is even smaller if you do four straight (Makar should be nominated this year).

Leetch was 4th, 1st, 3rd and 1st over a 6 year stretch.
Neidermayer was 1st, 2nd and 2nd over a 4 year stretch

its no shame to be compared to those guys.

 

[thefutures]

Bedard

 

[Voight]

Leetch was 4th, 1st, 3rd and 1st over a 6 year stretch.
Neidermayer was 1st, 2nd and 2nd over a 4 year stretch

its no shame to be compared to those guys.

I dont disagree, both of them were amongst the top defensemen of their era and all time. It's just Makar has been nominated for the Norris three times in four seasons; Leetch and Neids received three nominations each (in 18 seasons). Obviously they had a lot of competition (Chelios, Bourque, Lidstrom, MacInnis, Coffey etc), but so has Makar (time will tell if his peers are comparable)

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Meh. I don't see it, but maybe.

He's more of a Phil Housley type for me.

C´mon. Makar will get his 4th straight Norris nomination after the season, in his 5th season in the league.

Career PPG+ player regular season or playoffs and has a strong all-around game. Very few players in league history have been able to accomplish that.

 

[82Ninety42011]

So you pick one or get one and the 7th pick no brainer for me making the trade. Would be ecstatic to get either so why not take the 7th pick to as a bonus.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Depends on what you think Bedard's potential is, I think he's going to be the one to take the throne as best player in the league if/when McDavid takes a step back, so I think it's him. Any less than that, you'd be stupid to not go with Makar.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm pleasantly surprised that the poll isn't a runaway in any direction, though I'm a bit surprised that Makar is losing to Bedard by a factor of 2 to 1. I was actually concerned this would be a bit unfair to 98. Bedard's obviously going to be a whale of a player, but for so many people to take him over a guaranteed top 10 dman of all time and a 7th overall pick? And if the other GM who traded up thinks anything like HF, there's still a ~30% chance you would still get Bedard. Those are some crazy high expectations!

Part of me is curious at the preferences of the people voting to trade down? Based on the distribution of votes of Makar vs Bedard, you would think most would be expecting to receive Makar + 7th OA for Bedard. But I doubt that's actually the case.

So you pick one or get one and the 7th pick no brainer for me making the trade. Would be ecstatic to get either so why not take the 7th pick to as a bonus.

That's more or less the way I looked at it. But I could also see the logic behind just outright taking either, as a 7th overall pick isn't necessarily a lot when talking about the margins between elite players. In this case I just think it's tough enough to figure who will actually be theore impactful guy, that it's easier to just take the extra pick and let the other guy potentially make the wrong pick.

 

[wetcoast]

Bedard has come in and proven he's going to be an elite player for a long time, so I felt like this poll could be interesting.

With the benefit of hindsight, suppose each guy is 18 and entering the NHL draft in the same year. Your team is lucky enough to hold the number 1 pick, guaranteeing you a franchise altering player. The team with the #2 pick has offered you the 7th pick in the 2024 draft to swap picks with them. You have no idea who they are planning to pick.

What do you do?

I love Bedard but with hindsight it's Makar here.

Actually I thought about this and would just take #2 since it would be one of Makar/Bedard and then take the 7th pick this year where I could get another top line, top pairing type of piece.

Since both Makar/Bedard are in this hypothetical 24 draft it would be the 5th highest ranked guy and the guys in that area are Dickinson/Catton type of guys.

Good poll BTW.

 

[MoreMogilny]

This is a good poll

Excellent choices where it seems like there’s no bad choice.

I’d honestly pick Makar if the poll was a straight up question between the two of them. I’m surprised so many are choosing Bedard simply because you see what Makar has accomplished (PPG over 5 seasons, Norris winner, finalist, Conn Smythe winner!). Just how much better can you ask from a D? He’s literally franchise changing and we’ve seen the impact he has on the game.

Bedard is more shiny I guess and it looks like he’s going to live up to the hype so it’s not exactly a mystery box scenario. He could be McDavid 2.0. If he’s a 110 point player, do I take him over a 90 point Makar? I don’t think I do

Maybe I’m leaning this way because I’m the fan of a team with several 90 point forwards that have been missing a D anywhere near Makar’s calibre, but looking at the way some of the D in the game today impact their teams I think it’s hard to turn away from that opportunity to add one at the top of the list.

The asset management portion of this poll is the key. 7th overall could be a huge addition to a franchise as well if you consider these guys pretty close together. I think I’m leaning more towards just taking Makar though.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

knowing what we know now Makar is going #1 over Bedard so give me Bedard +#7 but its very, very close.

Makar is definitely better but we don't know how good Bedard can be yet. He will likely be *close* to Makar level and on top of that I get another top 7 pick which is a decent shot at a top line caliber player or at the very least a solid roster player. I will take that but might regret it if Bedard doesn't reach Makar's level

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

I'm taking Makar.

This year's Makar is dinged up but I know what he can do when healthy. Makar is in that group with Mackinnon and Matthews as the #2-#4 most valuable assets in the league. Bedard might join that group or maybe be in the #5-#10 group below it, maybe even after #10. So you go with Makar.

Speaking strictly in terms of how valuable of an asset they are, Bedard is basically already in that group with MacKinnon/Matthews/Makar.

He's already practically a ppg player at age 18 on an awful roster. Right now, as an 18 year old Bedard probably puts up 90-100 pts with good line mates, he's already good enough to do that. I think when you consider how good he is already and his age, he might already honestly be the #2 most valuable asset in the league. As great as MacKinnon is, he is 10 years older than Bedard, Matthews is 8 and Makar is 7 years older. None are "old" but the reality is that careers are finite and guys often fall of in their 30s. Even in today's game where some continue to be stars into their late 30s its still a very real possibility. I feel that inherently you are more likely to get injured as you age and put miles on your body.

Given those realities I think if given a chance to start a hypothetical new franchise you might take Bedard over anyone not named McDavid. Obviously there would be some debate but I don't think anyone would call a GM crazy for taking the 18 year old kid with thaaat much potential who has already showed enough as a rookie that he is legit 100%

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Speaking strictly in terms of how valuable of an asset they are, Bedard is basically already in that group with MacKinnon/Matthews/Makar.

He's already practically a ppg player at age 18 on an awful roster. Right now, as an 18 year old Bedard probably puts up 90-100 pts with good line mates, he's already good enough to do that. I think when you consider how good he is already and his age, he might already honestly be the #2 most valuable asset in the league. As great as MacKinnon is, he is 10 years older than Bedard, Matthews is 8 and Makar is 7 years older. None are "old" but the reality is that careers are finite and guys often fall of in their 30s. Even in today's game where some continue to be stars into their late 30s its still a very real possibility. I feel that inherently you are more likely to get injured as you age and put miles on your body.

Given those realities I think if given a chance to start a hypothetical new franchise you might take Bedard over anyone not named McDavid. Obviously there would be some debate but I don't think anyone would call a GM crazy for taking the 18 year old kid with thaaat much potential who has already showed enough as a rookie that he is legit 100%

I think the asset valuations for players that are 25 on long term deals vs 18 get difficult, because it can require a lot of assumptions about your ability to retain the 18 year old well beyond his RFA years at a manageable cap hit.

But in the case of Makar vs Bedard as assets, Makar only has 3 years left after this season. So I think Bedard probably has the edge as an asset just because you're pretty much guaranteed to have him for at least 6 more years (and probably 8). And for 2 of those years, you're getting him at a significant discount (though Makar at 9M is a crazy good price too).

I would also argue that a player like Makar, who has enjoyed so much team success with a franchise, is probably more likely to be a career Avalanche than Bedard is to he a career Blackhawk.

Regardless of all of the above, I don't think you can reasonably look beyond the next 7-8 years or so when comparing players at these career stages. But we can try. Assuming they both resign with their teams until 2032-33 with the below assumptions, I think it's probably a coin toss until about 2030, then it's tips in favor of Bedard:

Bedard
2x4.5M ages 19-20
8x14M ages 21-28

Makar
3x9M ages 26-28
7x12.5M ages 29-35

 

[ijuka]

Yeah. It's a pretty difficult choice.

Because the choice is difficult, I feel like trading down might be best value.

 

[cneely]

C´mon. Makar will get his 4th straight Norris nomination after the season, in his 5th season in the league.

Career PPG+ player regular season or playoffs and has a strong all-around game. Very few players in league history have been able to accomplish that.

I see the fancy point totals. I don't see the all around game.

The Norris has morphed into a "best offensive Dman" trophy.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Makar easily

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Give me 2nd and 7th.

One of Bedard/Makar and another good prospect is a great haul. And as we've seen in Edmonton, one great player doesn't make a team by himself.

 

[Evergreen]

Option 3 for me. I’d prefer Makar but the difference isn’t so great that I’d pass on the 7th pick. Plus I might still get my guy anyway.

 

[authentic]

I see the fancy point totals. I don't see the all around game.

The Norris has morphed into a "best offensive Dman" trophy.

Try watching him play

 

[Machinehead]

I would take the swap and be happy with whoever's left.

The votes are fairly close. That tells you right there that the difference between them is less than a 7OA.

 

[wetcoast]

I see the fancy point totals. I don't see the all around game.

The Norris has morphed into a "best offensive Dman" trophy.

You are in the wrong thread the Norris is going to Hughes this year but maybe you haven't been watching Makar since the draft?