C/RW Mitch Marner - London Knights, OHL (2015, 4th, TOR) VI
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Muston Atthews
Bunch of Bangerz
ThrowDemTongs
kid named jeff finger
HarrisonFord
President of the Drew Doughty Fan Club
Eternal Leaf
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Atomos2
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Even if the majority of the non matthews/marner/nylander leafs prospects bust (very good possibility), you still have a dman good foundation to build upon
WilliamNylander
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- Jul 26, 2012
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Article from Sportsnet predicting OHL snipers using advanced stats:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/
Marner doesn't actually rank as high as one would think....here is a snippet on Marner (and a few others):
"Elite producers like Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Travis Konecny fall a bit further down the list than might be expected. They will take some time to recognize that a lot of what they've gotten away with in junior won't work as effectively in the NHL, an adjustment that is part of the natural transition to the next level."
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juni...-snipers-best-shot-becoming-nhl-goal-scorers/
Marner doesn't actually rank as high as one would think....here is a snippet on Marner (and a few others):
"Elite producers like Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Travis Konecny fall a bit further down the list than might be expected. They will take some time to recognize that a lot of what they've gotten away with in junior won't work as effectively in the NHL, an adjustment that is part of the natural transition to the next level."
BWDude
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- Nov 13, 2015
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Yes absolutely, they will need to adjust to the NHL, but there is one fundamental piece they missed here: Dvorak and Debrincat.
Who do they have feeding them the puck into the high danger areas- that's right Marner and Strome. It's easier to score from NHL areas when you have NHL passers.
Fascinating article. Thanks for sending. I was amazed at the goalie save percentage differential between OHL and NHL goalies in the mid-danger and high-danger areas. Here is to hoping all junior leagues (CHL, USHL), NCAA, Euro leagues, and the AHL incorporate such data going forward. More advanced breakdown of production at all levels could ultimately help the scouting process - as well as all the HF crowd armchair QB analyses!
yeah, and Marner and Strome are both more playmakers than snipers. It also doesn't even try to balance out for the equivalent of shots taken. Dvorak isn't gonna shoot the percentage he does consistently. If we fully repeated the season I doubt he shoots 42.5 from in close again.
theIceWookie
#LeafHysteriaAlert
No kidding he doesn't rank as high. That's because he doesn't rank as high in total goal scoring in the O. He was only like 13th. So him ranking 14th on this list isn't really all that much lower than he is in league scoring.
And his NHL equivalent totals are on a similar percentage to Dvorak and the rest of the leaders, in being between 30-35 percent of their OHL goal total.
It's an interesting idea but seems to be something that really doesn't have much way to correlate to actual NHL goal scoring data until more data is collected and more investigation into the data is actually done.
Semantics
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
This is interesting, but there are a lot of potential flaws in his methodology.
The most glaring one to me is that he is scaling shooting percentages according to *average* shooters in both leagues. These top players are huge outliers in the OHL, and will likely be outliers at the NHL level too. Marner's SH% will not be 17%+ like it is in the OHL, but there's no way it's going to fall to 5-6% as this article implies.
Secondly, it doesn't look like he's accounting for games played. Marner only played 57 OHL games this season. If you pro-rate to 82 games those 12 goals become 18, the same as Max Domi, and would be quite respectable for an 18 year old rookie.
I do think he is scaling shooting percentages for each player. As I understand it, he has the average OHL and NHL save percentages in all three zones - and thus the average shooting percentages for each league in all three zones - and scales individual players shooting percentage accordingly relative to the average. So every player is individually adjusted based on how he performs at the OHL level.
I do agree he might not be taking games played into account. Also I wonder if he is holding shot total constant to the OHL shots/game for each player or adjusting it somehow. Clearly more info needed by the author of the article to deep dive on conclusions.
What is inferred from the article however - based on all the expected NHL goal totals per player - is that almost all players fall well below the average 8.5-9.0% average NHL shooting percentage. Eyeball test suggests average shooting percentage of 5.0-7.0% for most players. This can easily be accounted by looking at the NHL goalie save percentage of 2.0%, 4.0% and 9.3% for LD, MD, HD zones respectively and then realizing that OHL players take a much bigger percentage of shots from the LD/MD combisned zones relative to NHL players. More shots as a % of total outside of HD zone compared to typical NHLer means on average a given player will be below the average NHL player who generally shoots from in closer.
Despite all these unanswered questions, this is the first article I have read that helps contextualize the differences between OHL and NHL scoring by shooting zones.
kylbaz
Winnipeg <3
Carey Chant
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Don't compare the two players....think about the magic they can make when they are on the same line. Should be very fun to watch.
Semantics
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
That's what I was saying, he is scaling their shooting percentages according to the league averages. Marner, Strome, etc. are not average players, they are outliers. Generally forwards have better than average shooting percentages, and high skill forwards even more so. To assume that Marner's HD SH% is 2.8x higher in the OHL than it would be in the NHL is extremely dubious. 2.8x is such a huge number.
Marner's overall shooting percentage in the NHL won't be 5-6% like this analysis predicts. It will probably be more like 10-12%, at least, like most skilled forwards, which translates to 24 goals using the same weighting of danger areas.
My understanding is Burtch is reweighting the shot distribution to compensate for this, actually. That is, he's assuming Marner will take 24/9 as many shots from HD areas in the NHL as he does in the OHL (24% of NHL shots are from HD areas compared to 9% in the OHL).
the article also seems to be off in that snipers tend to score from further out hence the term sniper. Plus it fails to account for how many of Dvorak's goals are tap ins
Semantics
PUBLIC ENEMY #1
I agree that it's fascinating at a macro level. I had no idea that OHL players shot so much less frequently from HD areas, or that OHL goalies were that bad from HD areas.
But I don't think you can make reasonable NHL projections for individual players this way. He's partitioning down something that's already highly variable (overall SH%) into three smaller categories, which will now have even more variance, then adjusting each of those by noisy ratios, then trying to recombine them. With additional noise on top of that in the form of the weights to account for the different shooting preferences across leagues. It's like trying to turn a pig into a cow by putting it in a sausage grinder, adding a bunch of ground beef, and then forming it into the shape of a cow.
I wish he had also listed the actual goal/shot totals for each player per danger zone, because that would be interesting. I'd be curious to know if players who get a lot of HD scoring chances in the OHL translate better to the NHL, for example.
I read your recent comments - this reply and one from a few minutes earlier. While the analysis is somewhat crude I suspect he only had certain raw data and had to make some grandiose assumptions to generate projected goals. I do agree Marner and many others should be in the 10% + range in the NHL once they figure out how their shot selection needs to change at that level. This analysis implies the OHLers will shoot from the same zones at the NHL level - aka 51% of shoots @ 2.0% shooting % from LD and 40% of shots at MD @ 4.0 % shooting % for the average NHLer. So 91% of shots for average OHLer with weighted shooting % just under 3%. Surely shot selection will change once they realize how good the goalies are. We have each players shooting % by zone but we don't know what % of overall shots from each zone, so like you said a bit of a sausage grinder.
Whatever his methodology used for assumptions the article does highlight one critical point. OHLers score from LD and MD at astronomical shooting % rates compared to the NHL players AND on top of that OHL players take a much greater % of shots from LD and MD compared to HD zone relative to the NHL. Shooting percentages of 2.0%, 4.0% and 9.3% for LD, MD and HD zones for NHL players versus 6.9%, 16.5% and 26.1% respectively for OHL players. Those differences are INSANE and are roughly 3.5x, 4.1x, and 2.8x increased shooting % for LD, MD and HD zones.
Over time I hope we get more data and fewer assumptions so any predicative model has more legs to stand on but my eyes were opened big time as to the differences in OHL versus NHL scoring. It is much starker than I thought.
Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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I dunno if everyone besides those 3 bust we have a very good forward foundations to build upon, but I think our dman foundation will be pretty thin
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