C/RW Bryan Little: De-buffing 30 Goal Season

[garret9]

Everyone wants Little to move to RW because "he scored 30 goals there!"

Even Strength and PP Production

YEAR | GP | ESTOI/60 | ESP/60 | ESG | ESA | PPTOI/60 | PPP/60 | PPG | PPA | SHTOI/60 | SHG | SHA | SOG | SH%
2007| 48|11.83| 1.48| 04| 10| 3.07| 0.41| 03| 1|0.04|0|0 |076|07.9
2008| 79|12.18| 1.87| 19| 12| 3.78| 3.42| 12| 8|0.04|0|0 |172|18.0
2009| 79|12.38| 1.72| 10| 18| 2.97| 1.53| 03| 3|0.05|0|0 |165|07.9
2010| 76|13.56| 1.86| 16| 21| 2.36| 3.34| 02| 8|1.65|2|1 |158|11.4
2011| 74|15.33| 1.53| 16| 15| 2.61| 4.35| 06| 7|1.48|0|1 |162|14.8

"One of these years is not like the other..." Hint: 12PPG with 3.78 PPTOI/60
Similarly to Ladd, Little started working the PK for the first time in 2010 and 2011. Unlike Ladd though that TOI came with the reduction of other time... Power play.
You combine almost 4 minutes a game on the power play, a career high sh%, career high games played, and having Kovalchuk as a line-mate on the PP and you get 12 PP goals, about a 2:3 ratio to even strength. With the addition of Jokinen, I don't see Little's power play time jumping up very soon.
I do, however, think that Little would fit better on RW as more of a fit and observation reason than statistical. Little skills to me are best fit for a winger, and if we find two other top6 C I would love for him to be opposite wing on a line with Ladd. Little does have a sniper of a shot so I could see him staying in the high 20s for a while.

Even Strength Advance Stats

YEAR | RelQoC | OZS | RelCorsi | Corsi | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60
2007| 0.253| 51.2| 04.9|-09.19| 0.42| 0.95| 1.48
2008| 0.298| 42.4| 03.2|-04.99| 1.12| 0.50| 1.87
2009| -0.034| 43.0| 04.9| 01.66| 0.61| 0.92| 1.72
2010| 0.700| 54.5| 10.1| 05.59| 0.76| 0.58| 1.86
2011| 0.565| 56.4| 13.4| 10.42| 0.85| 0.53| 1.53

2007: Atlanta rushes their draft pick (surprise). He does ok relative to the team (RelCorsi) and posts decent rookie numbers, but loses a lot of man games, probably due to being rushed.
2008: Little improves his defensive Corsi numbers and offensively explodes (goal scoring wise... see above why) playing RW.
2009: Little moved back to centre and gets a tiny bit sheltered (RelQoC) although starting mostly in the defensive zone. He continues to improve his possession numbers and posts pretty nice assists production.
2010: Enter Ladd and eventually Wheeler. No longer being sheltered and playing a power vs. power type system, Little faces highest competition of his career yet still continues improving his possession numbers and ability to out-chance his opponent.
2012: Possession-wise Little posts a career best in Winnipeg. He's leaned on heavily to do all minutes, posting the highest RelQoC for the forwards not on GST. His goal scoring slightly rises to second highest in career and his primary assists stay stable. Due to poor luck, his secondary assists almost disappear (0.16 A2/60) to the lowest on the team not on GST, causing his worst even strength points rate in his career.

Summary
Fourteen centre's played 30+ games, played similar or tougher match-ups (>0.5 QoC), out-chanced their opponents 10:1 or greater (> 10 Corsi) and posted a more than a point and a half every 60 minutes:
O'Reilly, Little, Couture, Turris, Steen, Bergeron, JStaal, Thornton, Marleau, Toews, Kopitar, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Backes
Little did post the least amount of points/60 of the group although he was unlucky to have at most half the secondary assist production as any of the others.
Similar to Ladd, Little's greatest strength comes with being able to take on tough match-ups and consistently out-chance them. He's solid enough shooter and playmaker to be a complimentary piece as a secondary shooter with a mass shooter (ex: Ladd/Kane) and a pure playmaker.
Don't expect him to reach 30 goals again but I can totally see ~23-27-50 if the right usage comes around.


1-2 Years in the Future
As most of you here already agree, and probably noticed me hinting at before... Little would fit best as a RW on the tough match-ups offensive (ie: two-way line) on the RW, opposite to Ladd. I can see the two of them posting decent points there if placed between a similarly minded playmaker natural centre (Scheifele? Burmistrov? Zajac?). They would compliment each other very well.
1: x-x-x
2: Ladd-x-Little
3: x-x-x

Click to read more...

 

[meedle]

Everyone wants Little to move to RW because "he scored 30 goals there!"

Even Strength and PP Production

YEAR | GP | ESTOI/60 | ESP/60 | ESG | ESA | PPTOI/60 | PPP/60 | PPG | PPA | SHTOI/60 | SHG | SHA | SOG | SH%
2007| 48|11.83| 1.48| 04| 10| 3.07| 0.41| 03| 1|0.04|0|0 |076|07.9
2008| 79|12.18| 1.87| 19| 12| 3.78| 3.42| 12| 8|0.04|0|0 |172|18.0
2009| 79|12.38| 1.72| 10| 18| 2.97| 1.53| 03| 3|0.05|0|0 |165|07.9
2010| 76|13.56| 1.86| 16| 21| 2.36| 3.34| 02| 8|1.65|2|1 |158|11.4
2011| 74|15.33| 1.53| 16| 15| 2.61| 4.35| 06| 7|1.48|0|1 |162|14.8

"One of these years is not like the other..." Hint: 12PPG with 3.78 PPTOI/60
Similarly to Ladd, Little saw begun working the PK in 2010 and 2011. Unlike Ladd though that TOI came with the reduction of other time... Power play.
You combine almost 4 minutes a game on the power play, a career high sh%, career high games played, and having Kovalchuk as a line-mate on the PP and you get 12 PP goals, about a 2:3 ratio to even strength. With the addition of Jokinen, I don't see Little's power play time jumping up very soon.
I do, however, think that Little would fit better on RW as more of a fit and observation reason than statistical. Little skills to me are best fit for a winger, and if we find two other top6 C I would love for him to be opposite wing on a line with Ladd. Little does have a sniper of a shot so I could see him staying in the high 20s for a while.

Even Strength Advance Stats

YEAR | RelQoC | OZS | RelCorsi | Corsi | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60
2007| 0.253| 51.2| 04.9|-09.19| 0.42| 0.95| 1.48
2008| 0.298| 42.4| 03.2|-04.99| 1.12| 0.50| 1.87
2009| -0.034| 43.0| 04.9| 01.66| 0.61| 0.92| 1.72
2010| 0.700| 54.5| 10.1| 05.59| 0.76| 0.58| 1.86
2011| 0.565| 56.4| 13.4| 10.42| 0.85| 0.53| 1.53

2007: Atlanta rushes their draft pick (surprise). He does ok relative to the team (RelCorsi) and posts decent rookie numbers, but loses a lot of man games, probably due to being rushed.
2008: Little improves his defensive Corsi numbers and offensively explodes (goal scoring wise... see above why) playing RW.
2009: Little moved back to centre and gets a tiny bit sheltered (RelQoC) although starting mostly in the defensive zone. He continues to improve his possession numbers and posts pretty nice assists production.
2010: Enter Ladd and eventually Wheeler. No longer being sheltered and playing a power vs. power type system, Little faces highest competition of his career yet still continues improving his possession numbers and ability to out-chance his opponent.
2012: Possession-wise Little posts a career best in Winnipeg. He's leaned on heavily to do all minutes, posting the highest RelQoC for the forwards not on GST. His goal scoring slightly rises to second highest in career and his primary assists stay stable. Due to poor luck, his secondary assists almost disappear (0.16 A2/60) to the lowest on the team not on GST, causing his worst even strength points rate in his career.

Summary
Fourteen centre's played 30+ games, played similar or tougher match-ups (>0.5 QoC), out-chanced their opponents 10:1 or greater (> 10 Corsi) and posted a more than a point and a half every 60 minutes:
O'Reilly, Little, Couture, Turris, Steen, Bergeron, Staal, Thornton, Marleau, Toews, Kopitar, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Backes
Little did post the least amount of points/60 of the group although he was unlucky to have at most half the secondary assist production as any of the others.
Similar to Ladd, Little's greatest strength comes with being able to take on tough match-ups and consistently out-chance them. He's solid enough shooter and playmaker to be a complimentary piece as a secondary shooter with a mass shooter (ex: Ladd/Kane) and a pure playmaker.
Don't expect him to reach 30 goals again but I can totally see ~23-27-50 if the right usage comes around.


1-2 Years in the Future
As most of you here already agree, and probably noticed me hinting at before... Little would fit best as a RW on the tough match-ups offensive (ie: two-way line) on the RW, opposite to Ladd. I can see the two of them posting decent points there if placed between a similarly minded playmaker natural centre (Scheifele? Burmistrov? Zajac?). They would compliment each other very well.
1: x-x-x
2: Ladd-x-Little
3: x-x-x

Didn't he play with Kovalchuk when he scored 30. That was the main reason as i recall.

 

[GJF]

Didn't he play with Kovalchuk when he scored 30. That was the main reason as i recall.

Most of the time he did. As far as I remember Todd White was the center for the first half of the season and sometimes Eric Christensen. After picking up Peverley on waivers, he centered Kovy and I think Little was put on the 2nd line with Slava Kozlov and White, forming the "Little White Russian"-line.


If somebody knows it better, feel free to correct

 

[ps241]

Great breakdown again garret!!!

I gained a better understanding of Brian's value and that is a good thing. Definitely a very solid top 6 asset.

 

[truck]

The addition of Olli could make free up Little a little in road games.

 

[Sweech]

Little's versatility is one of the reasons I'm not always open to trading him.

Realistically, he's a RW who can play C in a pinch, much like Antropov, which should scream we need C's as those were our top 2 last year. I think keeping him helps protect our future roster against devastating injuries up the middle.

In the future I agree he should be put on the wing while guys like Burmistrov or Scheifele play in the middle. I also don't see his size as being as big an issue as he's obviously a two-way player who is very solid in the defensive game. While his offensive numbers should go up playing on the wing.

Once again great write up!

 

[Flair Hay]

Solid again garret.

Another well researched theory that basically tells us what most of us see as our main deficiency:

We have awful Center depth lol.

This team is literally that one Center away from being a contender for a mid playoff seed.

Don't let the pressure get to you, Mark.

 

[Bob E]

Solid again garret.

Another well researched theory that basically tells us what most of us see as our main deficiency:

We have awful Center depth lol.

This team is literally that one Center away from being a contender for a mid playoff seed.

Don't let the pressure get to you, Mark.

I agree. One impact center away, assuming scheifele continues to develop into a top 6 c.

So, maybe we draft one this yr- mackinnon, barkov, lindholm or monahan. Or sign one in FA, perhaps Getzlaf wants to be closer to his Saskatchewan family roots, for instance.

But with Trouba and scheifele on the way, who might contribute in a big way in a couple of yrs, I truly believe this team is pretty close. And Little on the 2nd line RW spot makes so much sense, to me.

 

[truck]

I agree. One impact center away, assuming scheifele continues to develop into a top 6 c.

So, maybe we draft one this yr- mackinnon, barkov, lindholm or monahan. Or sign one in FA, perhaps Getzlaf wants to be closer to his Saskatchewan family roots, for instance.

But with Trouba and scheifele on the way, who might contribute in a big way in a couple of yrs, I truly believe this team is pretty close. And Little on the 2nd line RW spot makes so much sense, to me.

Getzlaf would be an amazing. He'd turn the Jets into an instant contender.

Give him the max over 7 years. He's already had some practice playing with Kane.

 

[Huffer]

I agree. One impact center away, assuming scheifele continues to develop into a top 6 c.

So, maybe we draft one this yr- mackinnon, barkov, lindholm or monahan. Or sign one in FA, perhaps Getzlaf wants to be closer to his Saskatchewan family roots, for instance.

But with Trouba and scheifele on the way, who might contribute in a big way in a couple of yrs, I truly believe this team is pretty close. And Little on the 2nd line RW spot makes so much sense, to me.

Kane - Getzlaf / Zajac - Wheeler
Ladd - Jokinen - Little
XX - Scheifele - Burmistrov
Cormier - Slater - YY

Those first two lines would be pretty solid. Don't know about Scheifele and Burmistrov together, but this was just pie in the sky dreaming anyway.

 

[sully1410]

Getzlaf would be an amazing. He'd turn the Jets into an instant contender.

Give him the max over 7 years. He's already had some practice playing with Kane.

Wouldn't surprise me actually. Chipper has said that with the new CBA, he'll be able to invest more money into the team. I think we'll be spending sooner then we think, in my opinion. It wont be this year, but maybe next year? That was the impression that I got anyways.

 

[truck]

Kane - Getzlaf / Zajac - Wheeler
Ladd - Jokinen - Little
XX - Scheifele - Burmistrov
Cormier - Slater - YY

Those first two lines would be pretty solid. Don't know about Scheifele and Burmistrov together, but this was just pie in the sky dreaming anyway.

I believe Burmi is a lefty, I know he has played a little LW too. I love that versatility.

If it is an option Getzlaf > Zajac and it isn't close. He has that TNSE size and a ring.

Plus he is young enough to throw 7 years of good money at.

 

[truck]

Wouldn't surprise me actually. Chipper has said that with the new CBA, he'll be able to invest more money into the team. I think we'll be spending sooner then we think, in my opinion. It wont be this year, but maybe next year? That was the impression that I got anyways.

I fully believe they will offer him a deal. I mean they even went after Parise this year.

Whether or not he is interested is an unknown.

 

[garret9]

Kane - Getzlaf / Zajac - Wheeler
Ladd - Jokinen - Little
XX - Scheifele - Burmistrov
Cormier - Slater - YY

Those first two lines would be pretty solid. Don't know about Scheifele and Burmistrov together, but this was just pie in the sky dreaming anyway.

If it was Zajac I'd put him on the second line and Jokinen on the first and split minutes somewhat evenly...
If it was Getzlaf he goes on first line and you push heavy minutes to the first line.

I believe Burmi is a lefty, I know he has played a little LW too. I love that versatility.

If it is an option Getzlaf > Zajac and it isn't close. He has that TNSE size and a ring.

Plus he is young enough to throw 7 years of good money at.

Burmi is lefty but (from my limited viewings of last season and this year on icecaps) he plays on his offwing usually when he plays wing.

 

[KingBogo]

Everyone wants Little to move to RW because "he scored 30 goals there!"

Even Strength and PP Production

YEAR | GP | ESTOI/60 | ESP/60 | ESG | ESA | PPTOI/60 | PPP/60 | PPG | PPA | SHTOI/60 | SHG | SHA | SOG | SH%
2007| 48|11.83| 1.48| 04| 10| 3.07| 0.41| 03| 1|0.04|0|0 |076|07.9
2008| 79|12.18| 1.87| 19| 12| 3.78| 3.42| 12| 8|0.04|0|0 |172|18.0
2009| 79|12.38| 1.72| 10| 18| 2.97| 1.53| 03| 3|0.05|0|0 |165|07.9
2010| 76|13.56| 1.86| 16| 21| 2.36| 3.34| 02| 8|1.65|2|1 |158|11.4
2011| 74|15.33| 1.53| 16| 15| 2.61| 4.35| 06| 7|1.48|0|1 |162|14.8

"One of these years is not like the other..." Hint: 12PPG with 3.78 PPTOI/60
Similarly to Ladd, Little saw begun working the PK in 2010 and 2011. Unlike Ladd though that TOI came with the reduction of other time... Power play.
You combine almost 4 minutes a game on the power play, a career high sh%, career high games played, and having Kovalchuk as a line-mate on the PP and you get 12 PP goals, about a 2:3 ratio to even strength. With the addition of Jokinen, I don't see Little's power play time jumping up very soon.
I do, however, think that Little would fit better on RW as more of a fit and observation reason than statistical. Little skills to me are best fit for a winger, and if we find two other top6 C I would love for him to be opposite wing on a line with Ladd. Little does have a sniper of a shot so I could see him staying in the high 20s for a while.

Even Strength Advance Stats

YEAR | RelQoC | OZS | RelCorsi | Corsi | G/60 | A1/60 | P/60
2007| 0.253| 51.2| 04.9|-09.19| 0.42| 0.95| 1.48
2008| 0.298| 42.4| 03.2|-04.99| 1.12| 0.50| 1.87
2009| -0.034| 43.0| 04.9| 01.66| 0.61| 0.92| 1.72
2010| 0.700| 54.5| 10.1| 05.59| 0.76| 0.58| 1.86
2011| 0.565| 56.4| 13.4| 10.42| 0.85| 0.53| 1.53

2007: Atlanta rushes their draft pick (surprise). He does ok relative to the team (RelCorsi) and posts decent rookie numbers, but loses a lot of man games, probably due to being rushed.
2008: Little improves his defensive Corsi numbers and offensively explodes (goal scoring wise... see above why) playing RW.
2009: Little moved back to centre and gets a tiny bit sheltered (RelQoC) although starting mostly in the defensive zone. He continues to improve his possession numbers and posts pretty nice assists production.
2010: Enter Ladd and eventually Wheeler. No longer being sheltered and playing a power vs. power type system, Little faces highest competition of his career yet still continues improving his possession numbers and ability to out-chance his opponent.
2012: Possession-wise Little posts a career best in Winnipeg. He's leaned on heavily to do all minutes, posting the highest RelQoC for the forwards not on GST. His goal scoring slightly rises to second highest in career and his primary assists stay stable. Due to poor luck, his secondary assists almost disappear (0.16 A2/60) to the lowest on the team not on GST, causing his worst even strength points rate in his career.

Summary
Fourteen centre's played 30+ games, played similar or tougher match-ups (>0.5 QoC), out-chanced their opponents 10:1 or greater (> 10 Corsi) and posted a more than a point and a half every 60 minutes:
O'Reilly, Little, Couture, Turris, Steen, Bergeron, Staal, Thornton, Marleau, Toews, Kopitar, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, and Backes
Little did post the least amount of points/60 of the group although he was unlucky to have at most half the secondary assist production as any of the others.
Similar to Ladd, Little's greatest strength comes with being able to take on tough match-ups and consistently out-chance them. He's solid enough shooter and playmaker to be a complimentary piece as a secondary shooter with a mass shooter (ex: Ladd/Kane) and a pure playmaker.
Don't expect him to reach 30 goals again but I can totally see ~23-27-50 if the right usage comes around.


1-2 Years in the Future
As most of you here already agree, and probably noticed me hinting at before... Little would fit best as a RW on the tough match-ups offensive (ie: two-way line) on the RW, opposite to Ladd. I can see the two of them posting decent points there if placed between a similarly minded playmaker natural centre (Scheifele? Burmistrov? Zajac?). They would compliment each other very well.
1: x-x-x
2: Ladd-x-Little
3: x-x-x

Definately agree with this assessment. I'm a fan of Little maybe the Jets most quitely effective player. I really do like the idea of moving him to right wing and putting Sheifele between him and Ladd. This is Scheifele's best chance to stick playing with 2 vetrans who are good in both ends. It also opens up the possibility of a really potent first line of Kane-Olli-Wheeler.

 

[truck]

If it was Zajac I'd put him on the second line and Jokinen on the first and split minutes somewhat evenly...
If it was Getzlaf he goes on first line and you push heavy minutes to the first line.



Burmi is lefty but (from my limited viewings of last season and this year on icecaps) he plays on his offwing usually when he plays wing.

Yeah he was usually on the right side, but I believe he spent some time on the left of Antropov and Wellwood.

 

[garret9]

Definately agree with this assessment. I'm a fan of Little maybe the Jets most quitely effective player. I really do like the idea of moving him to right wing and putting Sheifele between him and Ladd. This is Scheifele's best chance to stick playing with 2 vetrans who are good in both ends. It also opens up the possibility of a really potent first line of Kane-Olli-Wheeler.

There's no doubt that Noel used him as a workhorse...
2nd most amount of 5v5 time
1st amount of PP time
6th amount of PK time (but really spots 2-6 (ie: everyone but Slater) had similar amounts)

 

[Hansen Brother]

Definately agree with this assessment. I'm a fan of Little maybe the Jets most quitely effective player. I really do like the idea of moving him to right wing and putting Sheifele between him and Ladd. This is Scheifele's best chance to stick playing with 2 vetrans who are good in both ends. It also opens up the possibility of a really potent first line of Kane-Olli-Wheeler.

I would really like to see Burmistrov between those two guys. He has the offensive ability and plays very good defense. (I think. I'm trying to figure out all those fancy stats Garrett puts together and maybe using those he can show Burmi isn't as good as I think he is.)

I think Scheifele will be a better center for Kane. Personally I find Scheifele's best asset is his vision and passing, and I think he would do wonderfully on a line between Kane and Wheeler. I can just imagine all the breakaways those two wingers would get with Scheifele feeding them passes.

So in 2 years or so that would give us a top six of

Kane-Scheifele-Wheeler
Ladd-Burmi-Little

Scheifele plays pretty good defence in the few games I've watched but I don't think he will ever make it to Burmi's level.

 

[KingBogo]

There's no doubt that Noel used him as a workhorse...
2nd most amount of 5v5 time
1st amount of PP time
6th amount of PK time (but really spots 2-6 (ie: everyone but Slater) had similar amounts)

I should have called him the most unsung effective Jet. He seems to disappear into the background next to the more high profile players, but does his job night after night. I'm really a Little fan, the forgotten Jet.

 

[Bob E]

I should have called him the most unsung effective Jet. He seems to disappear into the background next to the more high profile players, but does his job night after night. I'm really a Little fan, the forgotten Jet.

I like Little too. Can play center, fairly effectively, but may be more important to the team as a 2nd line RW'er with Ladd.

I really like the thought of adding an impact center like Getzlaf.

And have a top 6...

Kane [$5.25 mill]/Getzlaf [$6-$7 mill]/Wheeler [$4.5-$5 mill on a new contract]
Ladd[$4.4 mill]/Jokinen [$4.5 mill](then, Scheifele)/Little [$3.5-$4 mill on a new contract]

and I was hoping for a bottom 6 of:

Telegin/Scheifele (until Jokinen's contract is up)/Burmi
Or
Poni/Antro/Wellwood - if re-signed to reasonable contracts

then...

Cormier/Slater/Machacek

But i'm not sure Telegin will be ready for a top 9 spot (maybe ever), so Chevy has some FA spending to do on the 3rd line too.

However, that's a Top 6 next year that costs over $29 mill - or likely 1/2 or more of the Jets total payroll. The bottom 6 would likely cost $6-$7 million minimum, or a forwards tally of over $36 mill, likely closer to $37 or $38 million.

With Enstrom ($5.75), Buff ($5.2), Bogo (on a new contract in the $4.5+ range), and then 3 or 4 more which average about $1.5 mill each, Jets are over $20 mill on D.

Add in Pavy and a back-up, Jets are pushing $62 or $63+million for a cap hit. Now, that might be okay, Jets can likely afford it for a year or two before cheaper drafted players i.e. Trouba show up (though their cap hits tend to be higher with bonus money, etc.), but i'm wondering what moves Chevy makes as he has to see where the cap is going and what the number might be when its a 50/50 split.

I suppose, Jokinen is only one more year at $4.5, and if Scheifele can prove he's ready for Top 6 minutes, a 'cheaper' Scheifele steps into that spot. Which would make signing a guy like Getzlaf a no-brainer - if he would sign here long term.

 

[garret9]

I should have called him the most unsung effective Jet. He seems to disappear into the background next to the more high profile players, but does his job night after night. I'm really a Little fan, the forgotten Jet.

Oh sorry I was planning on agreeing with you and then adding that info... but then got distracted... by strawberry rhubarb pie

 

[truck]

I like Little too. Can play center, fairly effectively, but may be more important to the team as a 2nd line RW'er with Ladd.

I really like the thought of adding an impact center like Getzlaf.

And have a top 6...

Kane [$5.25 mill]/Getzlaf [$6-$7 mill]/Wheeler [$4.5-$5 mill on a new contract]
Ladd[$4.4 mill]/Jokinen [$4.5 mill](then, Scheifele)/Little [$3.5-$4 mill on a new contract]

and I was hoping for a bottom 6 of:

Telegin/Scheifele (until Jokinen's contract is up)/Burmi
Or
Poni/Antro/Wellwood - if re-signed to reasonable contracts

then...

Cormier/Slater/Machacek

But i'm not sure Telegin will be ready for a top 9 spot (maybe ever), so Chevy has some FA spending to do on the 3rd line too.

However, that's a Top 6 next year that costs over $29 mill - or likely 1/2 or more of the Jets total payroll. The bottom 6 would likely cost $6-$7 million minimum, or a forwards tally of over $36 mill, likely closer to $37 or $38 million.

With Enstrom ($5.75), Buff ($5.2), Bogo (on a new contract in the $4.5+ range), and then 3 or 4 more which average about $1.5 mill each, Jets are over $20 mill on D.

Add in Pavy and a back-up, Jets are pushing $62 or $63+million for a cap hit. Now, that might be okay, Jets can likely afford it for a year or two before cheaper drafted players i.e. Trouba show up (though their cap hits tend to be higher with bonus money, etc.), but i'm wondering what moves Chevy makes as he has to see where the cap is going and what the number might be when its a 50/50 split.

I suppose, Jokinen is only one more year at $4.5, and if Scheifele can prove he's ready for Top 6 minutes, a 'cheaper' Scheifele steps into that spot. Which would make signing a guy like Getzlaf a no-brainer - if he would sign here long term.

Getzlaf will get a lot of money.

He is every bit as valuable as Parise if not more. Will be interesting to see who is in and just how much the new CBA knocks down his salary.

That said he is still a no brainer for any team that doesn't have a top end #1 or any team that does and can afford him.

Even if adding him means you have to move Little or Olli you do it. An eliteish #1 C through his meaty years is huge, so you have to do it.

 

[Bob E]

Getzlaf will get a lot of money.

He is every bit as valuable as Parise if not more. Will be interesting to see who is in and just how much the new CBA knocks down his salary.

That said he is still a no brainer for any team that doesn't have a top end #1 or any team that does and can afford him.

Even if adding him means you have to move Little or Olli you do it. An eliteish #1 C through his meaty years is huge, so you have to do it.

I agree. I'd like to think that the Jets could get Getzlaf for $7 mill/yr or less on a 6 or 7 year deal - which would take him to 34 or 35 yrs old. He's not as big a point producer, so i was thinking bit more than Jordan Staal money, but that may be off.

Loved watching him when the Ducks were here last year. He's a big, physical center that definitely changes the feel of a game.

Edit: not a big point producer last year (though that may just be an off year).

 

[garret9]

I would really like to see Burmistrov between those two guys. He has the offensive ability and plays very good defense. (I think. I'm trying to figure out all those fancy stats Garrett puts together and maybe using those he can show Burmi isn't as good as I think he is.)

I think Scheifele will be a better center for Kane. Personally I find Scheifele's best asset is his vision and passing, and I think he would do wonderfully on a line between Kane and Wheeler. I can just imagine all the breakaways those two wingers would get with Scheifele feeding them passes.

So in 2 years or so that would give us a top six of

Kane-Scheifele-Wheeler
Ladd-Burmi-Little

Scheifele plays pretty good defence in the few games I've watched but I don't think he will ever make it to Burmi's level.

Burmistrov was the first guy I made one of these for, but it was during his AHL scoring drought to show how I wasn't really putting the blame on him... But maybe I will re-make him one since it didn't go nearly as in-depth as this one.

But short form:
If, Scheifele and Burmistrov hit their upsides those are the two perfect spots for them.
And, yes, Burmistrov is a great defensive player.

 

[Duke749]

Didn't he play with Kovalchuk when he scored 30. That was the main reason as i recall.

Most of the time he did. As far as I remember Todd White was the center for the first half of the season and sometimes Eric Christensen. After picking up Peverley on waivers, he centered Kovy and I think Little was put on the 2nd line with Slava Kozlov and White, forming the "Little White Russian"-line.


If somebody knows it better, feel free to correct

Little played with Todd White and Slava Kozlov that year. White had a career year and Kozzy had one of his better seasons. That and Little would park his butt in front of the net is why he scored 30 goals.