Mickey Marner
Registered User
If he ends up back in Jr. who do you guys think takes a crack at trading for him? London? Ottawa? Kitchener?
Reading through some of those comments a little bit OT but I can't unsee the visual in Yakupov's scouting reports that said "he plays like he's always being chased by a swarm of bees" We need that guy to give us a colorful report on Byfield.
Really though at this point it's been 5-6 months since they've played meaningful hockey and that's why it's fair to wonder why people's draft rankings would change heavily. There's more time to look/review, but there's also more time to overthink. A lot of recent criticism of Byfield has been abstractions, and that's problematic. I want to know specifically how someone can call him overrated, bad IQ, etc.
Also, don't underestimate the need to offer a unique or controversial perspective.
Someone who puts Stutzle or Byfield at 5 or 8 is going to generate a lot of attention and/or clicks.
Especially for you, us, and Detroit, who have all done nothing but sit on our hands since March and rearrange chess pieces shaped like Laf, Quinton, and Tim.
I don't really have any issue with your take here.
I'm not a big fan of butting in on other people's forums but that's mainly because I've been here awhile and in general it's counterproductive. Team boards are a "safe space" for a reason to allow fans to blow off steam and discuss things with some degree of freedom from trolling and criticism. There are plenty of general boards to discuss hockey issues with other fans, but I'm not the HF police (at least not anymore) and while I ask fellow fans to refrain from injecting their helpful comments into the conversations on other team boards, they don't have to listen.
On the topic of Byfield, I think he's the general consensus #2 in the draft and more Senators fans want him than Stutzle, including myself. The poll on the Senators board speaks for itself. No one is pretending otherwise.
That being said, it's not a unanimous opinion and there appears to be no real controversy with respect to his position relative to Lafreniere, at least, not for the last 6 months or more.
Why is that? He's much bigger than Laf, he skates like the wind and he's a centre. It should be a no-brainer, but there are some question marks about Byfield which some people want to discuss. It's the reason he's a tier down.
One of my colleagues' son plays in the OHL for the Oshawa Generals, and so he's never missed watching a game in years. I asked him his opinion on the draft well before the lottery and he thought that Byfield was the most overrated player relative to his draft position based on his fairly focused following of the OHL. He mentioned that for all of Byfield's numbers, he didn't appear to show his best on the biggest stages. Small sample size, just like the WJCs, but there's still some lingering doubt there. Interestingly, the guy that really impressed him was Drysdale.
The one aspect in your post that I take issue with is the idea that Ottawa fans are souring on Byfield because there's much less likelihood that he's still be around at #3, and so we're subconsciously favouring Stutzle to offset the disappointment. I've seen far too many players in the top 5 either exceed or fall relative to their draft position to get that emotionally manipulative about it.
Heck, I was one of the Senators fans who was jumping up and down in anger at passing on Zadina for Tkachuk (who had scored a whopping 24 goals in 96 games prior to his draft) and it turns out Brady is a pretty good player after all. After Lazar had been largely selected based on "character" and "readiness for the NHL", I was worried that Ottawa had done the same with Brady. For the record, I'm not sleeping on Zadina either, still a very talented prospect. So I've learned my lesson.
There's a lot of gossip about hockey in Ottawa and unsurprisingly everyone has some take about what they heard from someone about something. It passes the time, particularly when we haven't actually seen our team play in months. The gossip about LA is hardly unique to them. They just happen to be the team with the most potential impact on Ottawa's highest draft selection in decades.
Some people actually like Stutzle more. I'm not one of those people, but they do exist, and they aren't necessarily ignorant or ill-informed or stupid or trying to emotionally shield themselves from the result on draft day. They value different skills or they have a different assessment of Byfield's or Stutzle's potential.
In any event, I would ask you what you think Byfield's biggest weaknesses are, and what about him concerns you as a Kings fan knowing that he will likely be their pick.
To me, his size represents potential, but that potential can be unrealized, particularly when a player transitions to the NHL where players are already bigger, stronger and faster than anyone they've played against in Junior. The size/reach advantage isn't as prominent against NHL competition where you're facing a pool of 10-15 years of conditioning and physical development as opposed to the 2-3 years spanning the OHL player pool. In general, I think it takes longer for players who have size to transition that advantage to the NHL. I think his ceiling is higher but his floor may be lower. You might take issue with that.
I can certainly point out my issues with Stutzle - I watched a lot of Germany at the WJCs (where Seider was the really impressive player) and my concerns with his play are typical of someone with his skillset - holds on to the puck too long, tries to beat one too many opponents when it came to the really skilled teams, has a bit of a muffin for a shot, might have trouble with the larger and more physical players. But I also acknowledge that I haven't watched him with Mannheim aside from the multitude of prospect highlight reel youtube videos that are kicking around for everyone. A lot is made of his professional experience but it is the DEL and he was placed in a pretty advantageous situation.
From Bob McKenzie's 2005 scouting profile on Anze Kopitar:
As one scout said, "The kid could turn out to be a great player, but if you're picking that high, do you really want to take a chance on a kid from a country that has produced no NHL talent? Look at what happened to those Swiss first rounders. I don't care what you say, it's a gamble taking kids with unconventional backgrounds."
That provides some context towards how some minds work of random scouts. They all have their own personal biases, just as it'll appear all of us do when discussing certain players. I'm providing that quote as an example though to not be so dismissive, like that ill informed scout.
If he ends up back in Jr. who do you guys think takes a crack at trading for him? London? Ottawa? Kitchener?
Here's the thing. Is Byfield not a conceptual counter to Stutzle?I find this a bit of a strange take in regards to consensus. I mean, Bob's list is the best barometer of consensus around, and Stutzle is ranked 2nd there.
As for Byfield, I think more people are sold on what he could be, than what he actually is. People are really underestimating the risk associated with him. You are putting a lot of faith in development for a top 3 pick. He's still quite raw, which creates more potential road bumps and detours on the path to reach what many who are high on him are expecting him to be.
I don't see him as a defensive shut-down guy though. If he struggles, he's going to be pushed to the wing as a guy who uses his speed to be the first on the forecheck. Stutzle's best outcome is arguably Barzal, which is a pretty damn valuable center who you can use in multiple situations.Here's the thing. Is Byfield not a conceptual counter to Stutzle?
Forget Patrice Bergeron or Anze Kopitar. If we suppose that Stutzle performs to his best comparison and becomes like Mitch Marner. And Byfield lags behind a bit and becomes like a Pierre Luc Dubois figure. I feel like we've seen that movie before. If you can put Byfield out there 20 minutes a game and he can keep the scoresheet clean when he's out there, you get some solid D-men, some two way wingers, some backup centers. If Stutzle can score 1 point a game against Byfield's team he'll look amazing, I mean PPG, that's really good. But if every game ends 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, with the occasional shutout. At that point is Stutzle really worth more.
I think one aspect of drafting that people focus less on is the development portion. Sometimes I think "bad" drafting teams have bigger weaknesses in their development programs than their actual scouts.
You draft a prospect to develope him into a player - guys like McDavid dont need much investment from the org but most prospects do.
Some prospects have amazing raw tools but need a lot of work, some have put it all together already even though they have less skill and size.
Byfield is a guy, who if developed properly, can be an absolutley dominating player.
I think LA and Ottawa are both great developing teams so I feel pretty confident in him either way. Again I'm happy LA is out of division because I'm gonna be cheering for Byfield if he ends up on either team.
I do say as a Sens fan I wish I could emotionally attach myself to Stutzle or Byfield right now haha same goes for 5th ova..guess we can tune into the draft and see. I like to dive into the gossip over which team is gonna pick who because it's fun.. but part of the excitement is not for sure knowing who goes where until the day
I don't see him as a defensive shut-down guy though. If he struggles, he's going to be pushed to the wing as a guy who uses his speed to be the first on the forecheck. Stutzle's best outcome is arguably Barzal, which is a pretty damn valuable center who you can use in multiple situations.
So whats the consensus on QB?
Great response in general. There is not a single sports writer in NY claiming we might take Byfield. In fact, just the opposite with all stating the known fact that Laf is a lock at 1. So whoever is the rogue morons writing as such are really just click baiting.But now you’re just browbeating any person who says anything contradictory to a prospect whose ranking has sunk significantly. This is due to other prospects showing more, not because your guy’s diminished in some way. It’s called leapfrogging. Your guy is still as regarded as before, a heavily flawed prospect in terms of D year resume with a highly theoretical top three player in the league projectable ceiling, but others with improving showings jump ahead. And just because a few sportswriters suggest NYR might draft him ahead because Rangers need a center and to the uninformed, who often suggest drafting by need over BPA, they consider Byfield the only center. It’s not because he’s the calibler of prospect equal or better than Lafreniere.
I've seen a ton.I have only seen a small handful of full games, and dozens and dozens of clip packages, so please correct me if you have more experience, but I don't think I have ever seen Byfield getting in deep on a forecheck.
On outnumbered attacks you can see his aggression, but on the forecheck it sure seems like he always holds back to assume that F3 spot where he darts into the fray if his teammates force a turnover, or he hangs back between the dots and blueline, sets traps and looks to strip pucks with his reach instead of using his size to disrupt transition.
That's not a criticism, its just with that cerebral approach I can't see Byfield as anything other than a center. If he doesn't pan out as a #1 center, he looks an awful lot like a better skating version of Keith Primeau or even Kevin Hayes.
The funny thing is that as an offensive player without the puck, the guy he reminds of the most of is Rick Nash. Of course as a center he will end up moving more pucks than shooting them, so the comparison is more about how he strides and hangs out of the play before jumping from the outside inward as plays develop.
This Kings fan prefers Stützle, and I am almost positive he will end up the more impactful player, BUT we simply have to draft Byfield. If he puts it all together, and there is a pretty good chance he will, you just cannot turn down the opportunity to draft a potential franchise, massive, dominant center. The Kings are in a prime position to take that swing for the fences - they have plenty of top notch prospects up the middle and they can choose to buy a ticket to the lottery with the biggest jackpot.
Great response in general. There is not a single sports writer in NY claiming we might take Byfield. In fact, just the opposite with all stating the known fact that Laf is a lock at 1. So whoever is the rogue morons writing as such are really just click baiting.
Hmmm, I assume you know better in that you've seen him a lot so I'd defer to your judgment. But what would prevent him from being a shut-down guy? Attitude problems? Because I feel like if a team had the choice to turn him into a forechecking winger or a shut-down center they'd choose to turn him into a shut-down center, at least right now I feel like that's more value. So unless he's not willing or lacks some key faculties, I think he should be able to learn the role.I don't see him as a defensive shut-down guy though. If he struggles, he's going to be pushed to the wing as a guy who uses his speed to be the first on the forecheck. Stutzle's best outcome is arguably Barzal, which is a pretty damn valuable center who you can use in multiple situations.
I think he's defensively responsible, but I don't think he's a guy you put out expecting to shut down the other line-up. I mean, even your example of PLD allowed more goals when he was out at 5v5 this year, than his line scored.Hmmm, I assume you know better in that you've seen him a lot so I'd defer to your judgment. But what would prevent him from being a shut-down guy? Attitude problems? Because I feel like if a team had the choice to turn him into a forechecking winger or a shut-down center they'd choose to turn him into a shut-down center, at least right now I feel like that's more value. So unless he's not willing or lacks some key faculties, I think he should be able to learn the role.
Barzal is a good defensive forward. The scouting reports suggest that Stutzle is not, not that he could never become one. I think it's very typical, or it's my impression, of kids coming out of that region of Europe, however. Kids are basically taught from childhood that there are skill players and grinders. Kids who are grinders are never allowed by coaches to handle the puck, kids who are skill players never bother to learn defense. The quality of training has improved such that technically, as far as skating ability and stickhandling ability, players are getting better and better and now good enough to be drafted. But if they really want to learn defense they have to go to Canada. And I've noticed the Germans are better than us on this front but not by much, it's like 15% defense instead of 10% defense.
How's that? Trade? Pass on Lafreniere?
Yeah.....no. Laf is as close to a lock at 1 as you get. Stop sniffing the glue, son.
Yeah, as it were, Columbus subverts the normal team structure that you want your top 2 lines to score more than they get scored on and you want your bottom 2 lines to get scored on more than they score, but to keep that margin as low as possible, but merely having 4 bottom 6 lines that are also trying to minimize margins and then hoping for some unforeseen offense on lines TBD in a given game. Like a worse version of the Stars. Also, he's always paired with Atkinson or Texier...and I just always wonder why they have this defensive concept but they still have a player like Texier.I think he's defensively responsible, but I don't think he's a guy you put out expecting to shut down the other line-up. I mean, even your example of PLD allowed more goals when he was out at 5v5 this year, than his line scored.
He's a good kid who works hard. I haven't heard anything about his attitude being bad outside of ISS, which struck me as garbage. I'm not sure he processes the game fast enough to be an elite shutdown guy. His floor isn't a 2nd line shutdown guy. That's rarely the floor for anyone. Byfield's floor is a 3rd line winger. Not that, that, is the likely outcome.
Actually pretty curious about your thoughts on this. I've heard this before from Leafs fans, but I wonder how much of that is resultant of low expectations that Leafs fans have for their forwards when it comes to defense, because the Leafs PK was also not one of the better PKs in the league this year and the Leafs were also like 6th (or 26th) in GA/G on the season.I mean, Marner is a pretty good defensive player, and always has been. His only real limit is that his size limits him from winning battles down low. But, he read play exceptionally well, and has been used on the PK at all levels for that reason.