C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 4

GermanSpitfire

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He's having a fantastic tournament, no doubt. It doesn't fundamentally change who is as a prospect, especially when you factor in how much of his production has come from 2 games vs terrible opponents.

Consider Puljujarvi - 17p in 7gp, but his competition was waaaay more difficult.

Russiax2
Canada
Sweden
Czechs
Slovakia
Belarus

Belarus was the only weak opponent in there. Finland beat them 6-0 and JP had 3 points.

So he had 14p in 6gp vs "legitimate" opponents.

Bedard has 8p in 3gp vs the "legitimate", and even then it's a much weaker pool of teams, as he hasn't had to also face Canada or Russia twice.

Did that make Puljujarvi a better prospect than Matthews, who only had 11 points? Of course not, because counting stats for this tournament, while tons of fun to talk about, don't actually mean that much when compared to what star players are doing with their club teams

For people to talk like he should be at least as good as Crosby and McDavid is insanity and the epitome of a runaway hype train. That's not me being a hater, go through and read more of my posts in this thread, I've been a vocal supporter.
You’re a smart guy - I think you know that Puljuharvi had a real strong line that tournament and wasn’t really the play driver on that line. That was Aho.

Bedard has 12 more points than his next closest teammate. The two performances are comparable, but when you look closer - Bedard blows Puljujärvi out of the water.
 

TheBeastCoast

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I do think Crosby was a level above Bedard as a prospect. Like Bedard is shitting all over basically any draft eligible prospect arguably ever in the WJC. I do think a number of things factor into that and I also don't think a 2 week tournament no matter how historical should change the narrative around a player that much. Like if you thought he was better then Crosby and McDavid prior to this tournament then fair but I don't think this tournament should be used to push him into that category of prospect if that makes any sense.

So as prospects I would have it as Crosby and then Bedard/McDavid. The fact Crosby played on the greatest junior team of all time he was never going to be given the opportunity to singularly dominate to the extent that Bedard has, not to take anything away from what Bedard has done because you can't. I just think the total package of what Crosby was as a prospect and the entire season puts him above Bedard. Maybe because I can clearly remember prospect Crosby lol I do think there is more of a conversation around Bedard and McDavid. The fact Bedard has even put himself in that conversation is a testament to his game.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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Tavares was not touted as being a generational prospect by most scouts primarily due to his skating and that held true in the NHL.

Can you show any reviews by scouts that are questioning anything about Bedard to the extent that he is not as close to McDavid/Crosby as his production warrants?

Moving the goal posts are we? Now you're just making my point. Here's a reminder of what you said I couldn't do:

Anyways, you cannot cite a single prospect who was as generationally productive as Bedard but didn't pan out due to their skills not being projectible.

John Tavares fits this to a tee.

But regardless, here is commentary about him not being a Crosby / McDavid level player in November from the Athletic:
1672754630637.png


And also here:
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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You’re a smart guy - I think you know that Puljuharvi had a real strong line that tournament and wasn’t really the play driver on that line. That was Aho.

Bedard has 12 more points than his next closest teammate. The two performances are comparable, but when you look closer - Bedard blows Puljujärvi out of the water.
Of course he does, my point is that in such a small sample size this kind of stuff can get blown out of proportion. Puljujarivi scored a bunch more points than his linemates and he was the worst player on that line. For all of Bedard's points, he's racked up a good number of "touched the puck assists". He should no doubt be leading this tournament in scoring, but I think guys like Stankoven should be a lot closer to Bedard, he's been much better than his numbers suggest.

Bedard's dominant stat line through 5 games is incredible. But it's causing the same type of overreaction we saw when Fantilli had like 15 points in his first 6 games (vs very weak opponents too) and people were ready to take him over Bedard. He's since scored 11p in his last 10gp, a great stat line but not the type of numbers that I think people were projecting early on.
 
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ijuka

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Of course he does, my point is that in such a small sample size this kind of stuff can get blown out of proportion. Puljujarivi scored a bunch more points than his linemates and he was the worst player on that line. For all of Bedard's points, he's racked up a good number of "touched the puck assists". He should no doubt be leading this tournament in scoring, but I think guys like Stankoven should be a lot closer to Bedard, he's been much better than his numbers suggest.

Bedard's dominant stat line through 5 games is incredible. But it's causing the same type of overreaction we saw when Fantilli had like 15 points in his first 6 games (vs very weak opponents too) and people were ready to take him over Bedard. He's since scored 11p in his last 10gp, a great stat line but not the type of numbers that I think people were projecting early on.
High hockey IQ, being in the right place at the right time. He makes such plays even when he's not getting points off them, consistently.

And you're reaching with the comparison to Puljujärvi. Bedard has 21 points, next on his team has 9. For Puljujärvi's line, the points were 17, 14, 13. One can be due to luck, one cannot.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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if Bedard can carry over the momentum he's built up in this tournament over to the WHL, I wouldn,t be shocked at all if he puts up 90+ points over his remaining games
I think that's doable, but might be a bit optimistic. At the start of the season I believe projected ~70g ~140p this year if he played 60 games. He's currently on pace for 137.

High hockey IQ, being in the right place at the right time. He makes such plays even when he's not getting points off them, consistently.

And you're reaching with the comparison to Puljujärvi. Bedard has 21 points, next on his team has 9. For Puljujärvi's line, the points were 17, 14, 13. One can be due to luck, one cannot.
Bedard can still be benefitting from luck lol. I'm not arguing he's not the best player on his team. I am saying that the gap he's created is a inflated because of this sample size. If they played 50 more games he wouldn't have 130% more points than the team's 2nd leading scorer.
 
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Mickey Marner

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I do think Crosby was a level above Bedard as a prospect. Like Bedard is shitting all over basically any draft eligible prospect arguably ever in the WJC. I do think a number of things factor into that and I also don't think a 2 week tournament no matter how historical should change the narrative around a player that much. Like if you thought he was better then Crosby and McDavid prior to this tournament then fair but I don't think this tournament should be used to push him into that category of prospect if that makes any sense.

So as prospects I would have it as Crosby and then Bedard/McDavid. The fact Crosby played on the greatest junior team of all time he was never going to be given the opportunity to singularly dominate to the extent that Bedard has, not to take anything away from what Bedard has done because you can't. I just think the total package of what Crosby was as a prospect and the entire season puts him above Bedard. Maybe because I can clearly remember prospect Crosby lol I do think there is more of a conversation around Bedard and McDavid. The fact Bedard has even put himself in that conversation is a testament to his game.
Agreed on all accounts. Crosby played a more mature game and controlled the play to a greater extent. Even though the Q is a weaker league, the CHL was the strongest it has ever been due to the lockout and Crosby dominated it to a nearly unprecedented extent. He led the CHL in scoring by 38 points and out-scored the next closest non-teammate in the Q by 60 lol.

In addition to being stacked, that WJC Canadian team also played stingy defense-first hockey under Sutter. Where as this years team defends with hopes and prayers and tries to out-score their problems, particularly on the PP.

For those who don’t know, these were the team Canada forward lines.

Crosby-Bergeron-Perry
Ladd-Getzlaf-Carter
Dawes-Richards-Stewart
MacArthur-Fraser-Dixon

A complete contrast to this years team being carried by one line.
 
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stevo61

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Not even looking ahead to what his NHL career will be, how sad is it that the Pats can have a player of Bedards caliber, a guy like Svozil on the backend and then luck into Tanner Howe but still be a terrible team. Its funny because team Canada was supposed to be this offensive team that could give some support but its almost like Im still watching the Pats.

I know the WHL and the NHL are far from the same and Regina somewhat recently went for it but man its a shame he likely wont be able to carry whatever momentum he potentially continues to build at the WJC into a legit chase for the Mem Cup.
 
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Pi

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Anyone think he has a very very good chance to be on Team Canada's roster for the next WCOH? There likely won't be an Under 23 team this time so his only shot is the main team and I bet he's good enough to be on the team even if he is on his ELC.
 

nbwingsfan

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If he continues to improve his skating and has a back half of season like true generational players have had, I will gladly grant him generational status.

But an elite WJC performance is not enough to propel a franchise level prospect to a generational prospect.
It’s not just an “elite” WJC.

It’s a record breaking performance and one we haven’t seen done, Nevermind by a 17yo, in decades.

This is what happens when Bedard doesn’t have to drag around a bunch of bums like he’s doing in Regina. Even then, Canada wouldn’t be here without him.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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Anyone think he has a very very good chance to be on Team Canada's roster for the next WCOH? There likely won't be an Under 23 team this time so his only shot is the main team and I bet he's good enough to be on the team even if he is on his ELC.
He has a terrific chance, especially when you factor in his success with Team Canada.

He'll be what, 19-20 by then?

It’s not just an “elite” WJC.

It’s a record breaking performance and one we haven’t seen done, Nevermind by a 17yo, in decades.

This is what happens when Bedard doesn’t have to drag around a bunch of bums like he’s doing in Regina. Even then, Canada wouldn’t be here without him.
He's been terrific. But it's 5 games. 62% of his points have come against Austria and Germany lol.
 

TheBeastCoast

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Not even looking ahead to what his NHL career will be, how sad is it that the Pats can have a player of Bedards caliber, a guy like Svozil on the backend and then luck into Tanner Howe but still be a terrible team. Its funny because team Canada was supposed to be this offensive team that could give some support but its almost like Im still watching the Pats.

I know the WHL and the NHL are far from the same and Regina somewhat recently went for it but man its a shame he likely wont be able to carry whatever momentum he potentially continues to build at the WJC into a legit chase for the Mem Cup.
I guess the small consolation to that if they don't trade him is hopefully he will get to go play for Canada again in the spring. Fully agree though it is a shame the lack of team built around him in Regina.
 

Pi

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He has a terrific chance, especially when you factor in his success with Team Canada.

He'll be what, 19-20 by then?


He's been terrific. But it's 5 games. 62% of his points have come against Austria and Germany lol.

Yeah, I am really excited to see what he can do in the NHL next year.

I think it's the perfect storm. Everything he's capable of doing is exactly the way the NHL is headed and scoring is increasing.

It wouldn't shock me to see him put up 40+ goals and PPG if he's healthy and on a team with some offensive talent already.
 
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WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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I guess the small consolation to that if they don't trade him is hopefully he will get to go play for Canada again in the spring. Fully agree though it is a shame the lack of team built around him in Regina.
It really is a shame. They have like 4 good players and then a huge fall off.

Already have had like 34 guys dress for them.
 

Skinnyjimmy08

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Someone just needs to kidnap the GM of Regina until they trade him to play with Stankoven for the rest of the season.
Hypothetically if Regina and Kamloops have been in talks of a trade involving Bedard to Kamloops and If I was Paddock and have been watching just how insane that duo has been at WJC, I'd be telling Kamloops they need to add on atleast another 1st + to the return cause you know Kamloops management/ownership has been salivating at this duo during WJC......

Pre WJC the return would be insane in a Bedard to Kamloops trade....

Post WJC the return would be ASTRONOMICAL in a Bedard to Kamloops trade
 
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nbwingsfan

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He has a terrific chance, especially when you factor in his success with Team Canada.

He'll be what, 19-20 by then?


He's been terrific. But it's 5 games. 62% of his points have come against Austria and Germany lol.
And every single year, especially by the greats, points are put up against bad teams. You don’t just get to remove those because you say so.

As I said, it’s the best tournament we’ve seen by ANYONE, not just a 17yo, in decades.

Keep downplaying it as much as you like, doesn’t mean you’re right in any kind of way.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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And every single year, especially by the greats, points are put up against bad teams. You don’t just get to remove those because you say so.

As I said, it’s the best tournament we’ve seen by ANYONE, not just a 17yo, in decades.

Keep downplaying it as much as you like, doesn’t mean you’re right in any kind of way.
How many players get to play TWO teams like Austria and Germany? One of those games should have been a Russia/US caliber team. All of the sudden he goes from 21p to 15p. Still incredible but its very obvious how weak his competition has been to date.
 

nergish

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Even the most cynical, advanced stat-touting hf posters had to have smiled last night watching Bedard score that overtime goal. Obviously it's especially sweet as a Canadian, but this is the kind of player that reminds you of what the game is all about.
 

prongertheman9

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Of course he does, my point is that in such a small sample size this kind of stuff can get blown out of proportion. Puljujarivi scored a bunch more points than his linemates and he was the worst player on that line. For all of Bedard's points, he's racked up a good number of "touched the puck assists". He should no doubt be leading this tournament in scoring, but I think guys like Stankoven should be a lot closer to Bedard, he's been much better than his numbers suggest.

Bedard's dominant stat line through 5 games is incredible. But it's causing the same type of overreaction we saw when Fantilli had like 15 points in his first 6 games (vs very weak opponents too) and people were ready to take him over Bedard. He's since scored 11p in his last 10gp, a great stat line but not the type of numbers that I think people were projecting early on.
I can honestly only think of like 1 or 2 assists that you could classify as a a lucky "touched the puck" assists. I think that is what has been so jaw-dropping to people who haven't seen him play much, is how much offense he is directly creating. In my opinion he's probably a bit unlucky to not have more points relative to the quantity/quality of what he has created.

The only thing that you have been right about is that he is definitely more of a Kucherov than a Stamkos.
 

jackp0t

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He has a terrific chance, especially when you factor in his success with Team Canada.

He'll be what, 19-20 by then?


He's been terrific. But it's 5 games. 62% of his points have come against Austria and Germany lol.


Even if you dont consider points, he's still generating 2/3 of Canada scoring chances.
 

lomiller1

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Something to keep in mind about Crosby's QHJHL numbers is that they were not unprecedented at the time. Brad Richards had put up a 2.9 ppg season just a few years earlier in 1999-2000, Simon Gamache had a 2.57 ppg season in 2000-2001 and Alexander Radulov had a 2.47 ppg season in 2005-2006. Crosby's 2.7 ppg season in 2004-2005 was far more impressive due to his age, but the numbers he was putting up were not completely out of line for the Q at that point in time.

In McDavid's case we would have had to go back a full decade to Patrick Kane (and Rob Schremp lol) to find comparable ppg totals but there are still comparables.

Conversely we just don't have comparables for WHL players of any age putting up over 2 points per game any time in the last 2 decades.


It may not be quite that clear cut but I'd argue that Bedard is a biggest outlier of the 3 in terms of scoring for the league he plays in, and his numbers certainly are not less impressive that Crosby or McDavid in the context they are occurring.
 

SannywithoutCompy

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He has a terrific chance, especially when you factor in his success with Team Canada.

He'll be what, 19-20 by then?


He's been terrific. But it's 5 games. 62% of his points have come against Austria and Germany lol.
That's a bit disingenuous. He was positively unlucky against the Czechs, if his teammates (Othmann largely) could finish the plays he served up on a platter he could be at 25 points by now.
 
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Mathieukferland

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And every single year, especially by the greats, points are put up against bad teams. You don’t just get to remove those because you say so.

As I said, it’s the best tournament we’ve seen by ANYONE, not just a 17yo, in decades.

Keep downplaying it as much as you like, doesn’t mean you’re right in any kind of way.
Yeah this is what I don’t get; Crosby I wasn’t old enough to remember but put McDavid up what half of his points against Denmark and Germany? Like you can only beat who is front of you, and so far against big teams bedard is averaging above 3 points a game, I don’t know what else you can ask for
 

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