C Adam Gaudette - Northeastern University, NCAA (2015, 149th, VAN)

[PG Canuck]

Why not ?

Beat up his team a little too much, Gaudette is upset, therefore he is going to string us along.

#DoingMyBestM2BFreakout

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

just tearing it up this year... unreal

strange to see such a VERY impressive future Nucks are gonna have... IMO they are killing it lately with prospects

I really hope Gaudette signs after his season... win the Hobey Baker and then sign with Nucks

 

[M2Beezy]

Gaudette is a MONSTER

 

[Elias Pettersson]

If he continues like this, the hobey should be his

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Another 3 point game. I think that's 3 consecutive 3 point games now. He's somehow getting better.

 

[AmericanDream]

I hope he doesn't win the Hobey to be honest - though as of late the track record has been better for players at the NHL level, but for about 20 years the vast majority were NHL busts or never got a sniff.

I hope he gets the chance to step in with Vancouver if they don't make the Final Four and gets a few games in with Boeser...that would be fun to watch!

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

I hope he doesn't win the Hobey to be honest - though as of late the track record has been better for players at the NHL level, but for about 20 years the vast majority were NHL busts or never got a sniff.

I hope he gets the chance to step in with Vancouver if they don't make the Final Four and gets a few games in with Boeser...that would be fun to watch!

Im kinda hoping he wins it so then he doesnt have another reason to potentially go back for his senior year!!haha... I wanna see him in the NHL this year!

 

[AmericanDream]

Im kinda hoping he wins it so then he doesnt have another reason to potentially go back for his senior year!!haha... I wanna see him in the NHL this year!

I doubt he is even thinking about going back, I think it depends more on how they do in the playoffs vs a Hobey Baker award. Plus his linemates are both signing somewhere this year hopefully Sikura with the Hawks and Stevens likely with the Blues..so if they both leave I doubt Gaudette would want to be back as the team will not be anywhere near the same next year.

 

[elitepete]

I hope he doesn't win the Hobey to be honest - though as of late the track record has been better for players at the NHL level, but for about 20 years the vast majority were NHL busts or never got a sniff.

Sound logic

He’s gonna win it, then become an excellent top 9 forward for the Canucks.

 

[AmericanDream]

Sound logic

He’s gonna win it, then become an excellent top 9 forward for the Canucks.

it is sound logic. Outside of Eichel and Gaudreau, over the past 14 years it is a list of never was or busts. And most people at the time thought many of these kids would be solid NHLers for years. we have been talking about this for years and most times winning the Hobey Baker almost meant a pro death sentence. Outside of Matt Carle, prior to 2014 was horrific. The jury is still out on Vesey and Butcher, though both should be pro players for at least another few years so hopefully the trend of winning a Hobey Baker only to never make it in the NHL has been bucked since Johnny Hockey won.

2003Peter SejnaLeft WingColorado CollegeLiptovský Mikuláš, Czechoslovakia
2004Junior LessardRight WingMinnesota–DuluthSaint-Joseph-de-Beauce, Quebec
2005Marty SertichCenterColorado CollegeRoseville, Minnesota
2006Matt CarleDefenseDenverAnchorage, Alaska
2007Ryan DuncanLeft WingNorth DakotaCalgary, Alberta
2008Kevin PorterCenterMichiganNorthville, Michigan
2009Matt GilroyDefenseBoston UniversityNorth Bellmore, New York
2010Blake GeoffrionCenterWisconsinPlantation, Florida
2011Andy MieleLeft WingMiami (OH)Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan
2012Jack ConnollyCenterMinnesota–DuluthDuluth, Minnesota
2013Drew LeBlancCenterSt. Cloud StateDuluth, Minnesota
2014Johnny GaudreauLeft WingBoston CollegeSalem, New Jersey
2015Jack EichelCenterBoston UniversityNorth Chelmsford, Massachusetts
2016Jimmy VeseyLeft WingHarvardBoston, Massachusetts
2017Will ButcherDefenseDenverMadison, Wisconsin

 

[Blue and Green]

Most of the Baker winners who failed to make it were never drafted. Winners that were drafted have been reasonably successful as a group in the NHL. Gaudette is a draftee.

Also, you started your list at a point convenient to your argument. The previous six winners all played at least 200 NHL regular season games, they combined for more than 3700, and three of them were genuinely good NHLers (Ryan Miller, Chris Drury and Brendan Morrison).

it is sound logic. Outside of Eichel and Gaudreau, over the past 14 years it is a list of never was or busts. And most people at the time thought many of these kids would be solid NHLers for years. we have been talking about this for years and most times winning the Hobey Baker almost meant a pro death sentence. Outside of Matt Carle, prior to 2014 was horrific. The jury is still out on Vesey and Butcher, though both should be pro players for at least another few years so hopefully the trend of winning a Hobey Baker only to never make it in the NHL has been bucked since Johnny Hockey won.

2003Peter SejnaLeft WingColorado CollegeLiptovský Mikuláš, Czechoslovakia
2004Junior LessardRight WingMinnesota–DuluthSaint-Joseph-de-Beauce, Quebec
2005Marty SertichCenterColorado CollegeRoseville, Minnesota
2006Matt CarleDefenseDenverAnchorage, Alaska
2007Ryan DuncanLeft WingNorth DakotaCalgary, Alberta
2008Kevin PorterCenterMichiganNorthville, Michigan
2009Matt GilroyDefenseBoston UniversityNorth Bellmore, New York
2010Blake GeoffrionCenterWisconsinPlantation, Florida
2011Andy MieleLeft WingMiami (OH)Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan
2012Jack ConnollyCenterMinnesota–DuluthDuluth, Minnesota
2013Drew LeBlancCenterSt. Cloud StateDuluth, Minnesota
2014Johnny GaudreauLeft WingBoston CollegeSalem, New Jersey
2015Jack EichelCenterBoston UniversityNorth Chelmsford, Massachusetts
2016Jimmy VeseyLeft WingHarvardBoston, Massachusetts
2017Will ButcherDefenseDenverMadison, Wisconsin

 

[AmericanDream]

Most of the Baker winners who failed to make it were never drafted. Winners that were drafted have been reasonably successful as a group in the NHL. Gaudette is a draftee.

Also, you started your list at a point convenient to your argument. The previous six winners all played at least 200 NHL regular season games, they combined for more than 3700, and three of them were genuinely good NHLers (Ryan Miller, Chris Drury and Brendan Morrison).

I didn't make it out of pure convenience, I just picked the last 15 years - that is what came up. I was just going to do 2007 to now, but I just did past 15 years as a round about number. I can go past 25 years if you would like which would even it out again big time with even more busts past Miller etc...

but the point is Gaudette winning the Hobey isn't a guarantee to the show, and that is all I a trying to say. Yes he is a draft pick, but a late one as well, obviously he didn't blow scouts away for his draft year either. I am happy for the kid, I cross my fingers he makes it as I want all the young Americans to make it to the show...just don't use him winning the Hobey as a basis for NHL success....the past 15 years shows why that would be unwise.

 

[Josepho]

The past history of Hobey Baker winners is totally irrelevant.

Focus on NCAA players who have had a trajectory similar to him.

 

[Blue and Green]

I didn't make it out of pure convenience, I just picked the last 15 years - that is what came up. I was just going to do 2007 to now, but I just did past 15 years as a round about number. I can go past 25 years if you would like which would even it out again big time with even more busts past Miller etc...

but the point is Gaudette winning the Hobey isn't a guarantee to the show, and that is all I a trying to say. Yes he is a draft pick, but a late one as well, obviously he didn't blow scouts away for his draft year either. I am happy for the kid, I cross my fingers he makes it as I want all the young Americans to make it to the show...just don't use him winning the Hobey as a basis for NHL success....the past 15 years shows why that would be unwise.

Let's go through the full history of the award (1981-2017).

I split the winners into two lists: Drafted and Undrafted. As the draft is now seven rounds, I put the two guys who were taken in the 9th and 11th rounds into the Undrafted group. I removed completely the two first-round draft choices, Kariya and Eichel. They were both drafted in the top 4 overall, won the award as freshmen and immediately moved to the NHL, thus no comparability to a 5th-round junior like Gaudette.

There is a huge difference between the group drafted in rounds 2-7 versus the Undrafted group.

For the 19 "Drafted" winners whose careers are over or nearing the finish (Ryan Miller), the mean draft round # is 4.1. The mean # of regular season games played is 466, median # is 536. If you want to project for Gaudette, that group gives a reasonable indication.

Of the 14 winners in the "Undrafted" group, only Vesey is active in the NHL. For the other 13, the most games played was just 225 by Matt Gilroy. The mean is 55.

Drafted Winners (Rounds 2 - 7 only)
Player Round #Games
Broten 2nd 1099
Kurvers 7th 659
Watson 4th 115
Hrkac 2nd 758
Stauber 6th 62
McDonald 3rd 0
K Miller 4th 449
Emma 6th 34
Pellerin 3rd 536
Marinucci 5th 13
Holzinger 6th 547
Morrison 2nd 934
Drury 3rd 892
Mottau 6th 321
R Miller 5th 709
Leopold 2nd 695
Carle 3rd 730
Porter 6th 249
Geoffrion 2nd 55
----------
Gaudreau 4th ongoing, a top NHL offensive threat
Butcher 5th ongoing, doing quite well as a rookie

 

[AmericanDream]

Let's go through the full history of the award (1981-2017).

I split the winners into two lists: Drafted and Undrafted. As the draft is now seven rounds, I put the two guys who were taken in the 9th and 11th rounds into the Undrafted group. I removed completely the two first-round draft choices, Kariya and Eichel. They were both drafted in the top 4 overall, won the award as freshmen and immediately moved to the NHL, thus no comparability to a 5th-round junior like Gaudette.

There is a huge difference between the group drafted in rounds 2-7 versus the Undrafted group.

For the 19 "Drafted" winners whose careers are over or nearing the finish (Ryan Miller), the mean draft round # is 4.1. The mean # of regular season games played is 466, median # is 536. If you want to project for Gaudette, that group gives a reasonable indication.

Of the 14 winners in the "Undrafted" group, only Vesey is active in the NHL. For the other 13, the most games played was just 225 by Matt Gilroy. The mean is 55.

Drafted Winners (Rounds 2 - 7 only)
Player Round #Games
Broten 2nd 1099
Kurvers 7th 659
Watson 4th 115
Hrkac 2nd 758
Stauber 6th 62
McDonald 3rd 0
K Miller 4th 449
Emma 6th 34
Pellerin 3rd 536
Marinucci 5th 13
Holzinger 6th 547
Morrison 2nd 934
Drury 3rd 892
Mottau 6th 321
R Miller 5th 709
Leopold 2nd 695
Carle 3rd 730
Porter 6th 249
Geoffrion 2nd 55
----------
Gaudreau 4th ongoing, a top NHL offensive threat
Butcher 5th ongoing, doing quite well as a rookie

I appreciate the time and effort on this...man I think we have really diverted the thread into this hahahaha.

but as much as you think this proves a point or whatever, I think it even helps my case further in a sense.

you look at most of those "drafted" winners that play forward - how many of them were top 6 players in the NHL for more than a year or two? I can tell you off hand, since I am old enough to have watched all of them play in the NHL, that outside of Broten, Morrison, and Drury no other forward was a consistent top 6 player in the NHL for more than 2 seasons. NONE of them.

A great goalie in Miller, a few good dmen in Carle, Leopold, and Kurvers, but outside of that, that is one big group of bottom 6 players, who might have "maybe" got top 6 minutes for a year or two max...many of those players faded fast or had to evolve into different types of players to stay in the show. Gaudette is a great player, I again would not look at that list and be confident he is going to make it as a top 6 player...

the majority of Hobey Baker winners have either busted/never made it, or if they did make it, it was as a bottom 6 NHLer for the majority of their career.

lets focus on the past 4 winners as that helps Gaudette so much more!!

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Only 2 points tonight.

 

[AmericanDream]

Only 2 points tonight.

yep, what a bum!!

 

[Blue and Green]

I appreciate the time and effort on this...man I think we have really diverted the thread into this hahahaha.

but as much as you think this proves a point or whatever, I think it even helps my case further in a sense.

you look at most of those "drafted" winners that play forward - how many of them were top 6 players in the NHL for more than a year or two? I can tell you off hand, since I am old enough to have watched all of them play in the NHL, that outside of Broten, Morrison, and Drury no other forward was a consistent top 6 player in the NHL for more than 2 seasons. NONE of them.

A great goalie in Miller, a few good dmen in Carle, Leopold, and Kurvers, but outside of that, that is one big group of bottom 6 players, who might have "maybe" got top 6 minutes for a year or two max...many of those players faded fast or had to evolve into different types of players to stay in the show. Gaudette is a great player, I again would not look at that list and be confident he is going to make it as a top 6 player...

the majority of Hobey Baker winners have either busted/never made it, or if they did make it, it was as a bottom 6 NHLer for the majority of their career.

lets focus on the past 4 winners as that helps Gaudette so much more!!

Nowhere did I say that Gaudette was a cinch to be a top-6 forward. The data shows the wide range of outcomes. But an average career of ~500 games is nothing to sneeze at for a group of guys drafted outside the 1st round.

And at least I went to the trouble of presenting a bigger set of data and also putting it into some form of context.

 

[AmericanDream]

Nowhere did I say that Gaudette was a cinch to be a top-6 forward. The data shows the wide range of outcomes. But an average career of ~500 games is nothing to sneeze at for a group of guys drafted outside the 1st round.

And at least I went to the trouble of presenting a bigger set of data and also putting it into some form of context.

agreed, and as I said I appreciated the effort.

but others seem to think he is a lock for a top 6 player and I just merely pointed out that isn't really the case for those that win the Hobey.

there is a difference between carving out a 500 game career and being a top 6 player - you might not be saying the top 6 player, but others are. I hope the kid follows Gaudreau and Eichel - I have bitched as much as anyone that he should have been playing in the Olympics for team USA, that was just bullshit.

but, he again was a low draft pick, had a good freshman year, but really exploded just last year- so he has a lot to prove that he can play at the NHL level. I sure as hell hope he does as does most of Vancouver lol!

 

[Mr Plow]

Usually Hobey Baker winners are too small for the NHL or older than most of the other college players. Gaudette at 6'1" and 21 years old has a significant advantage over most winners for his transition to the NHL.

Who will he likely be up against for the award anyway?

 

[elitepete]

it is sound logic. Outside of Eichel and Gaudreau, over the past 14 years it is a list of never was or busts. And most people at the time thought many of these kids would be solid NHLers for years. we have been talking about this for years and most times winning the Hobey Baker almost meant a pro death sentence. Outside of Matt Carle, prior to 2014 was horrific. The jury is still out on Vesey and Butcher, though both should be pro players for at least another few years so hopefully the trend of winning a Hobey Baker only to never make it in the NHL has been bucked since Johnny Hockey won.

2003Peter SejnaLeft WingColorado CollegeLiptovský Mikuláš, Czechoslovakia
2004Junior LessardRight WingMinnesota–DuluthSaint-Joseph-de-Beauce, Quebec
2005Marty SertichCenterColorado CollegeRoseville, Minnesota
2006Matt CarleDefenseDenverAnchorage, Alaska
2007Ryan DuncanLeft WingNorth DakotaCalgary, Alberta
2008Kevin PorterCenterMichiganNorthville, Michigan
2009Matt GilroyDefenseBoston UniversityNorth Bellmore, New York
2010Blake GeoffrionCenterWisconsinPlantation, Florida
2011Andy MieleLeft WingMiami (OH)Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan
2012Jack ConnollyCenterMinnesota–DuluthDuluth, Minnesota
2013Drew LeBlancCenterSt. Cloud StateDuluth, Minnesota
2014Johnny GaudreauLeft WingBoston CollegeSalem, New Jersey
2015Jack EichelCenterBoston UniversityNorth Chelmsford, Massachusetts
2016Jimmy VeseyLeft WingHarvardBoston, Massachusetts
2017Will ButcherDefenseDenverMadison, Wisconsin

Wow you actually believe this? Is it some superstitious nonsense where hobey baker puts a curse on prospects?

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

Wow you actually believe this? Is it some superstitious nonsense where hobey baker puts a curse on prospects?

It's mostly that it usually goes to a 22 or 23 year old who is beating up on teenagers. Same reason why the CHL MVP award was a minefield for so long until the recent run of DeBrincat, Marner, McDavid, Mantha and Drouin.

 

[elitepete]

It's mostly that it usually goes to a 22 or 23 year old who is beating up on teenagers. Same reason why the CHL MVP award was a minefield for so long until the recent run of DeBrincat, Marner, McDavid, Mantha and Drouin.

Gaudette is 21

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

Gaudette is 21

Hence why I said "usually". Really if anyone is going to do some statistical analysis on this, they should split out the Hobey winners by age. I think Gaudette's season would look even better then.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Wow you actually believe this? Is it some superstitious nonsense where hobey baker puts a curse on prospects?

I'm not superstitious

But I am a little stitious