Speculation: Buyout Parise, yes or no?

[Dr Jan Itor]

Again, I can't pretend to know whether or not Guerin has already discussed waiving with Parise, or whether he's reached an agreement with Francis about who he's taking, so I'm not going to regard it in a discussion about a Parise buy out.

No, but you can have thoughts based on the information you do have. I’m not going to pretend to know either, but until something comes out to the contrary, assuming nothing happening in that area is the safer bet.

 

[AKL]

No, but you can have thoughts based on the information you do have. I’m not going to pretend to know either, but until something comes out to the contrary, assuming nothing happening in that area is the safer bet.

No, but the choice between Greenway and Foligno isn't enough of a reason to justify buying him out, if that's your biggest concern. They're going to take one either way.

 

[Bazeek]

So like I said, if you don't need to cap space (which I don't think we do), you don't do it. We're likely moving Dumba in some form anyway, you can move Rask, you can move Soucy or Greenway. Buying out Parise isn't really giving you long term cap space, it's just a one year advance on Rask's deal expiring. So if you can just move Rask, just do that.

Buying out Parise is the easiest way to make the space required to keep the current team more or less intact, which includes:

• Signing Kaprizov and Fiala
• Keeping Dumba and Greenway
• Losing one of Soucy or Foligno to expansion

This also leaves open trade options for players like Dumba, Fiala and Greenway without making them necessary just for cap purposes.

Keeping Parise is more viable if you don't mind the team being worse next season. It's not impossible that Guerin can make the team better without it, but at this point it's unlikely.

 

[AKL]

Buying out Parise is the easiest way to make the space required to keep the current team more or less intact, which includes:

• Signing Kaprizov and Fiala
• Keeping Dumba and Greenway
• Losing one of Soucy or Foligno to expansion

This also leaves open trade options for players like Dumba, Fiala and Greenway without making them necessary just for cap purposes.

Keeping Parise is more viable if you don't mind the team being worse next season. It's not impossible that Guerin can make the team better without it, but at this point it's unlikely.

You can move Rask to get the same savings and keep that same team and options intact. You likely don't even have to pay to get it done if you retain 1-2M, and chances are you don't need much more than that to make it work, especially if you're losing Soucy or Foligno in the expansion draft.

 

[Bazeek]

You can move Rask to get the same savings and keep that same team and options intact. You likely don't even have to pay to get it done if you retain 1-2M, and chances are you don't need much more than that to make it work, especially if you're losing Soucy or Foligno in the expansion draft.

I think they are going to need more than $2m-$3m to keep everyone around and extend their RFAs, but I'll have to triple-check my work.

 

[AKL]

I think they are going to need more than $2m-$3m to keep everyone around and extend their RFAs, but I'll have to triple-check my work.

16M right now, 2M from Soucy or Foligno getting taken, 1-3M from Rask being moved.

My plan opens up basically the same amount of cap yours does, I'm just moving Rask instead of buying Parise out.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

No, but the choice between Greenway and Foligno isn't enough of a reason to justify buying him out, if that's your biggest concern. They're going to take one either way.

It very well might be, and I'm even not a huge Greenway fan.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

16M right now, 2M from Soucy or Foligno getting taken, 1-3M from Rask being moved.

My plan opens up basically the same amount of cap yours does, I'm just moving Rask instead of buying Parise out.

And what's the most you're willing to attach to him to do so?

 

[AKL]

It very well might be, and I'm even not a huge Greenway fan.

If it's that big of a deal you can make a deal to keep your preferred one. It's still not enough of a reason to buy Parise out.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If it's that big of a deal you can make a deal to keep your preferred one. It's still not enough of a reason to buy Parise out.

I thought you weren't going to pretend to know of that.

 

[AKL]

I thought you weren't going to pretend to know of that.

I'm not going to pretend to know if there's already something in place in regards to a Parise buyout making sense. I never said it wasn't an option. I also don't care which one we lose, it doesn't justify a buyout.

 

[Bazeek]

16M right now, 2M from Soucy or Foligno getting taken, 1-3M from Rask being moved.

My plan opens up basically the same amount of cap yours does, I'm just moving Rask instead of buying Parise out.

Here's my roster after a Parise buyout and losing Soucy to the expansion draft:

Spoiler

Zuccarello	6	Rask	4	Kaprizov	7.5
Boldy	0.8	Hartman	1.7	Fiala	6.5
Greenway	2.1	Eriksson-Ek	5.25	Foligno	3.2
4LW	1	Sturm	0.7	Bjugstad	0.9
13F	1	14F	1
Suter	7.5	Spurgeon	7.5
Brodin	6	Dumba	6
3LD	2	3RD	1
1
Talbot	3.6
Kakhonen	0.725
Buyouts	2.3
Used	79.275
Cap	81.5
Space	2.225

[TBODY] 7D
[/TBODY]

This is with Rask still at "1C", but there's $2m in cap space to work with: either to take a little back in a trade for a better center and/or for the usual headroom for injury call-ups and the like. Failing that it's basically the same roster as last season.

Here's the same roster without a Parise buyout:

Spoiler

Zuccarello	6	Rask	4	Kaprizov	7.5
Boldy	0.8	Hartman	1.7	Fiala	6.5
Greenway	2.1	Eriksson-Ek	5.25	Foligno	3.2
Parise	7.5	Sturm	0.7	Bjugstad	0.9
13F	1	14F	1
Suter	7.5	Spurgeon	7.5
Brodin	6	Dumba	6
3LD	2	3RD	1
1
Talbot	3.6
Kakhonen	0.73
Buyouts	0
Used	83.5
Cap	81.5
Space	-1.97

[TBODY] 7D
[/TBODY]

This is about $2m over the cap, but that's before the proposed Rask trade. Assuming $1m in retention that would leave us with:

Spoiler

Zuccarello	6	Center		Kaprizov	7.5
Boldy	0.8	Hartman	1.7	Fiala	6.5
Greenway	2.1	Eriksson-Ek	5.25	Foligno	3.2
Parise	7.5	Sturm	0.7	Bjugstad	0.9
13F	1	14F	1
Suter	7.5	Spurgeon	7.5
Brodin	6	Dumba	6
3LD	2	3RD	1
7D	1
Talbot	3.6
Kakhonen	0.73
Buyouts	0
Retention	1
Used	80.5
Cap	81.5
Space	1.03

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This leaves $1m in space but no center for Zuccarello and Kaprizov. I assume the plan there is to put Rossi straight onto the roster and go with Eriksson-Ek/Rossi/Sturm/Hartman/Bjugstad as the centers? Even with an ELC in that center spot we'd have to cut back on what I have for depth signings just to make some cap head room, but that's not necessarily impossible. And there's still the possibility of a Dumba trade, though it's hard to say how much cap space that'll end up opening.

I guess it's not impossible, it just seems unnecessarily tight and puts a lot of pressure on Rossi to be a top-6 center right away next year.

 

[AKL]

Here's my roster after a Parise buyout and losing Soucy to the expansion draft:

Spoiler

Zuccarello	6	Rask	4	Kaprizov	7.5
Boldy	0.8	Hartman	1.7	Fiala	6.5
Greenway	2.1	Eriksson-Ek	5.25	Foligno	3.2
4LW	1	Sturm	0.7	Bjugstad	0.9
13F	1	14F	1
Suter	7.5	Spurgeon	7.5
Brodin	6	Dumba	6
3LD	2	Defenseman	1
Defenseman	1
Talbot	3.6
Kakhonen	0.725
Buyouts	2.3
Used	79.275
Cap	81.5
Space	2.225

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is with Rask still at "1C", but there's $2m in cap space to work with: either to take a little back in a trade for a better center and/or for the usual headroom for injury call-ups and the like. Failing that it's basically the same roster as last season.

Here's the same roster without a Parise buyout:

Spoiler

Zuccarello	6	Rask	4	Kaprizov	7.5
Boldy	0.8	Hartman	1.7	Fiala	6.5
Greenway	2.1	Eriksson-Ek	5.25	Foligno	3.2
Parise	7.5	Sturm	0.7	Bjugstad	0.9
13F	1	14F	1
Suter	7.5	Spurgeon	7.5
Brodin	6	Dumba	6
3LD	2	Defenseman	1
Defenseman	1
Talbot	3.6
Kakhonen	0.73
Buyouts	0
Used	83.5
Cap	81.5
Space	-1.97

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is about $2m over the cap, but that's before the proposed Rask trade. Assuming $1m in retention that would leave us with:

Spoiler

Zuccarello	6	Center		Kaprizov	7.5
Boldy	0.8	Hartman	1.7	Fiala	6.5
Greenway	2.1	Eriksson-Ek	5.25	Foligno	3.2
Parise	7.5	Sturm	0.7	Bjugstad	0.9
13F	1	14F	1
Suter	7.5	Spurgeon	7.5
Brodin	6	Dumba	6
3LD	2	Defenseman	1
Defenseman	1
Talbot	3.6
Kakhonen	0.73
Buyouts	0
Retention	1
Used	80.5
Cap	81.5
Space	1.03

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This leaves $1m in space but no center for Zuccarello and Kaprizov. I assume the plan there is to put Rossi straight onto the roster and go with Eriksson-Ek/Rossi/Sturm/Hartman/Bjugstad as the centers? Even with an ELC in that center spot we'd have to cut back on what I have for depth signings just to make some cap head room, but that's not necessarily impossible. And there's still the possibility of a Dumba trade, though it's hard to say how much cap space that'll end up opening.

I guess it's not impossible, it just seems unnecessarily tight and puts a lot of pressure on Rossi to be a top-6 center right away next year.

Yeah, so barring major retention on Rask, it's effectively the same as buying Parise out. It comes down to, basically, do you trust Rossi to make the team, and would you prefer swapping Rask with Rossi, or Parise with an average fourth liner.

I look at Rossi, and as long as he can get conditioned in time, I don't see how he isn't one of the centers on this roster to start the season anyway. His competition isn't stifling. It would basically come down to Guerin putting him in the AHL out of principle, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, but it also doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

 

[Bazeek]

Yeah, so barring major retention on Rask, it's effectively the same as buying Parise out. It comes down to, basically, do you trust Rossi to make the team, and would you prefer swapping Rask with Rossi, or Parise with an average fourth liner.

I look at Rossi, and as long as he can get conditioned in time, I don't see how he isn't one of the centers on this roster to start the season anyway. His competition isn't stifling. It would basically come down to Guerin putting him in the AHL out of principle, which isn't out of the realm of possibility, but it also doesn't mean it's the right thing to do.

I would strongly prefer to keep Rossi's spot warm with Hartman for now and let him push himself onto the roster, and if buying out Parise can facilitate that I think it'd be well worth it. And I wouldn't say Rossi would be in the AHL out of principle, we just wouldn't be building the roster around the assumption that he starts in the NHL. If we do and he stumbles out of the gate the team is boned.

 

[AKL]

I would strongly prefer to keep Rossi's spot warm with Hartman for now and let him push himself onto the roster, and if buying out Parise can facilitate that I think it'd be well worth it. And I wouldn't say Rossi would be in the AHL out of principle, we just wouldn't be building the roster around the assumption that he starts in the NHL. If we do and he stumbles out of the gate the team is boned.

The team is "boned" if you're buying out Parise so we can go into next season with Hartman and Rask as the top six centers again. At that point, there's no sense in making any moves outside of signing the guys we need to sign. And then who cares if you have to move Dumba or Greenway for cap purposes, because you're intentionally icing Rask and Hartman as top six centers.

That kind of goes back to my philosophy of trading guys like Dumba for futures, maintaining status quo until those contracts are off the books naturally, instead of forcing stuff like this.

 

[Prior]

Rossi is going to need to come in and blow the doors off the competition in camp to make the team. What type of competition he has is likely of the bad variety but nevertheless, I have a hard time seeing this organization throwing him right onto the roster having missed a year+ to that point already.

After watching Boldy get the treatment he did, the front office handling the roster like they did the prior offseason, and the team doing nothing to add to a good team at the deadline; going to have a hard time convincing me that they are going to put Rossi in that position. He’s going to need to show he’s at a completely other level ala Kaprizov and even then, this is an organization that tried to hide/minimize his role until it was clear he had superstar ability.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Rossi is going to need to come in and blow the doors off the competition in camp to make the team. What type of competition he has is likely of the bad variety but nevertheless, I have a hard time seeing this organization throwing him right onto the roster having missed a year+ to that point already.

After watching Boldy get the treatment he did, the front office handling the roster like they did the prior offseason, and the team doing nothing to add to a good team at the deadline; going to have a hard time convincing me that they are going to put Rossi in that position. He’s going to need to show he’s at a completely other level ala Kaprizov and even then, this is an organization that tried to hide/minimize his role until it was clear he had superstar ability.

Kaprizov was on the top line game 1...

 

[Bazeek]

The team is "boned" if you're buying out Parise so we can go into next season with Hartman and Rask as the top six centers again.

In terms of next year's roster I don't understand what downside there is to buying out Parise unless one doesn't think that he can be replaced with a $1m replacement-level forward. Even in years 3-4 the cost of [Parise Buyout] + [$700k - $1m forward] is about equal to Parise's normal $7.5m cap hit. That's a wash, in my mind.

The plan would still be to upgrade at center, there'd just be more room to do so. My roster has $2m in space with Rask on it and $6m in space with him off of it. That makes it easier to target a guy like Dvorak (or someone else in the $4m - $6m ranger) by offering futures (+ Rask as a 1-year cap dump). There are the Dumba and Fiala angles too, but in any case you have more room to work with and aren't forcing Rossi onto the team just to stay under the cap.

 

[AKL]

In terms of next year's roster I don't understand what downside there is to buying out Parise unless one doesn't think that he can be replaced with a $1m replacement-level forward.

The plan would still be to upgrade at center, there'd just be more room to do so. My roster has $2m in space with Rask on it and $6m in space with him off of it. That makes it easier to target a guy like Dvorak (or someone else in the $4m - $6m ranger) by offering futures (+ Rask as a 1-year cap dump). There are the Dumba and Fiala angles too, but in any case you have more room to work with and aren't forcing Rossi onto the team just to stay under the cap.

You can't offer futures for a guy like Dvorak or better regardless. Again, your buy out is an advance on Rask's contract ending, not a free 4M in space long term. You're going to run into the same issue next summer if you're using the 2M in cap space you have as if it's 6M.

Buying Parise out is not a free ticket to upgrade the roster without cap implications. You're just kicking the implications down the road.

 

[Bazeek]

You can't offer futures for a guy like Dvorak or better regardless. Again, your buy out is an advance on Rask's contract ending, not a free 4M in space long term. You're going to run into the same issue next summer if you're using the 2M in cap space you have as if it's 6M.

Yes, we are going to run into cap issues next year and beyond. Buying out Parise makes that no worse, and makes next year easier regardless of how one plans out the rest of the offseason. So what's the downside?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You can't offer futures for a guy like Dvorak or better regardless. Again, your buy out is an advance on Rask's contract ending, not a free 4M in space long term. You're going to run into the same issue next summer if you're using the 2M in cap space you have as if it's 6M.

Buying Parise out is not a free ticket to upgrade the roster without cap implications. You're just kicking the implications down the road.

Zuccarello becomes tradable and Dumba is still tradable next summer. As is Greenway, if necessary.

 

[AKL]

Zuccarello becomes tradable and Dumba is still tradable next summer. As is Greenway, if necessary.

And they're all still tradable without a Parise buyout as well.

Yes, we are going to run into cap issues next year and beyond. Buying out Parise makes that no worse, and makes next year easier regardless of how one plans out the rest of the offseason. So what's the downside?

The downside is you lock yourself into that cap hit without the possibility of escaping it. Beyond that, you have a 900k dead cap hit for four years after his contract should be done. Which sure, isn't a lot, but in your calculations a few posts back, you're talking about 900k being the difference between it working and it not working. So maybe it's not something to look forward to when the team should, in theory, be more competitive for those four years than it is now.

The upside is something like LTIR, or paying someone less to take him than you would now, or mutual termination, or at the very least, an extra 400k in cap space for the three years his contract would still be active, and an extra 400k the three years after that, and one less year of that dead hit.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And they're all still tradeable without a Parise buyout as well.

If Dumba is protected, Greenway probably isn't. And if Greenway is protected, Dumba probably isn't.

 

[AKL]

If Dumba is protected, Greenway probably isn't. And if Greenway is protected, Dumba probably isn't.

And that matters when talking about shedding cap hits because...?

 

[Prior]

A buyout reflects certainly and closure. That is not meaningless.

I do not see the current situation as amenable. I do not see a clean way out that doesn’t hurt the team in some fashion.

That includes sending significant assets to be done with him. Possibly risking recapture. Risking sudden retirement and/or a LTIR battle that he would like to challenge based on potentially being embarrassed by the organization if they decide to hang onto him and drag this out while not playing him.