"Bust Potential"

[Zetsyuk]

I'm hearing all this talk about "bust potential" in prospects picked in the draft. How exactly does one gauge said potential?

I understand the concept, but some users are aggravatingly ignorant with it. Just because you hadn't heard of the player, or he moved up or down the rankings, does not mean he will be a bust.

Injuries? Yes. Work ethic? Sure. Attitude? Maybe that.

But not only because you don't like their playing style, size (They're still young, all growing...), etc... That's another thing. Everybody complaining about the size of players, remember, THEY WERE JUST DRAFTED. They're still kids, still filling out their frames. If it were a Tavares, Hedman, Duchene type of player, then question it, but if they're not going to play a full season, you can't say they won't be good because they only weigh 160. CLEARLY they're still growing, and obviously they're doing some crazy conditioning to put on the necessary muscle. Otherwise, they wouldn't get played, and likely wouldn't have made it this far without their work ethic (pertaining to training, conditioning, etc...).

/rant


Now, to start the thread. List players you think have the most "bust potential", and give a legitimate reason as to why you think so.

Click to read more...

 

[RoyBoyCoy]

Bust potential is when there is risk that the player may not be as good as they have the potential to. It's player with a good best case scenario and a really bad worst case scenario. It's based on a high risk/high reward concept.

Alexander Avtsin is a prime example. He's 6'3" 200lbs, 110pts in 76 games playing in the third division of the KHL. On the high end of his potential, he turns out to be an absolute steal in the 4th Round making Timmons look like a genius, but for all we know he could stay in Russia, or come to North America and for some reason, adjust very poorly.

 

[JMFJ 3]

Jordan Schroeder - A bonafide midget that will need to reach his maximum potential in order to become a successful NHL'er.

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson - Great skater, terrible shot. He has the ability to create scoring chances at the junior level but can't really finish like a John Tavares or Evander Kane.

Zach Kassian - Very raw skill set, I think he might have the highest risk factor of all the players taken in the 1st round.

 

[SK13]

Jordan Schroeder - A bonafide midget that will need to reach his maximum potential in order to become a successful NHL'er.

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson - Great skater, terrible shot. He has the ability to create scoring chances at the junior level but can't really finish like a John Tavares or Evander Kane.

Zach Kassian - Very raw skill set, I think he might have the highest risk factor of all the players taken in the 1st round.

He doesn't play at the junior level.

 

[JMFJ 3]

He doesn't play at the junior level.

I was referring to the world juniors, I haven't watched alot of him at Timra.

 

[jBuds]

Zach Kassian - Very raw skill set, I think he might have the highest risk factor of all the players taken in the 1st round.

I'm certainly a bit biased, but my feeling is that players of that "physical" nature will always carve out an NHL career, even if it's on the 3rd-4th line. So while that doesn't seem special by any stretch for a top-15 pick, it's still a lot better than a large portion of all other draft picks in the NHL.

He fights, hits, forechecks hard, plays mean and physical. I think he should have a nice NHL career in some fashion - any offense is a bonus.

And again... I'm biased

 

[MXD]

Bust potential is when there is risk that the player may not be as good as they have the potential to. It's player with a good best case scenario and a really bad worst case scenario. It's based on a high risk/high reward concept.

Alexander Avtsin is a prime example. He's 6'3" 200lbs, 110pts in 76 games playing in the third division of the KHL. On the high end of his potential, he turns out to be an absolute steal in the 4th Round making Timmons look like a genius, but for all we know he could stay in Russia, or come to North America and for some reason, adjust very poorly.

This said, it's nearly expected for a 4th rounder to bust...
So that's why a guy like Avstin was picked so far.
If it was 2000, he would probably have been picked Top-15.

 

[RoyBoyCoy]

This said, it's nearly expected for a 4th rounder to bust...
So that's why a guy like Avstin was picked so far.
If it was 2000, he would probably have been picked Top-15.

True, I guess later rounds is low risk and high reward LOL.

 

[SK13]

I was referring to the world juniors, I haven't watched alot of him at Timra.

If he couldn't make hay at the pro level, he wouldn't be the youngest player to ever play in the SEL, let alone score 7 goals in 50 games as a 17 year old from the fourth line with 10 minutes of ice time a game.

It's not so much his shot but his finishing ability that gets called into question. I really have to think that a 6'2 power forward who's considered one of, if not the, best skater in the draft will have a career in the NHL.

Whether he fulfills his potential as a star or even a top-line guy in this league... well, we'll know more by the next WJC.

 

[FutureConsiderations]

Jordan Schroeder - A bonafide midget that will need to reach his maximum potential in order to become a successful NHL'er.

Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson - Great skater, terrible shot. He has the ability to create scoring chances at the junior level but can't really finish like a John Tavares or Evander Kane.

Zach Kassian - Very raw skill set, I think he might have the highest risk factor of all the players taken in the 1st round.

At the very least, Kassian was taken ahead of where he should have been. I call it the Lucic effect.

 

[Schenn]

i think Kane could be a HUGE bust for Atlanta

 

[Zetsyuk]

i think Kane could be a HUGE bust for Atlanta

Well at least your reasoning is sufficient...

 

[Omar Little]

I'd say kreider because even though he put up 2 ppg he was playing prep school hockey in MA...I bet a majority of his points were created just by speed alone and once you get to a higher level of hockey the players who used to create a lot of chances by being faster than everyone else at a crappy level tend to not have as much sucess at a higher level

 

[Shadow Flyer]

i think Kane could be a HUGE bust for Atlanta

I've seen this alot on these boards over the last month or so, and I don't quite get it. Not that people who think this are wrong, but I just don't see it.

I actually see Kane as one of those guys who is more likely to overachieve than underachieve. Of course, I'm not a pro scout, so my opinion and a dollar might just get you a cup of coffee or something.

I think I'm in the minority, but I believe Kane could be a special player, the kind you win with in the playoffs. Just a hunch.

 

[Zetsyuk]

I've seen this alot on these boards over the last month or so, and I don't quite get it. Not that people who think this are wrong, but I just don't see it.

I actually see Kane as one of those guys who is more likely to overachieve than underachieve. Of course, I'm not a pro scout, so my opinion and a dollar might just get you a cup of coffee or something.

I think I'm in the minority, but I believe Kane could be a special player, the kind you win with in the playoffs. Just a hunch.

I'm on the same boat. His work ethic, drive, determination, and disregard for the other team laugh is what makes him special.

 

[SaucyNavel]

everyone drafted has "Bust" potential

 

[SK13]

I'm on the same boat. His work ethic, drive, determination, and disregard for the other team laugh is what makes him special.

Players with a bit of size who can skate will likely always make the NHL in some capacity.

I was not thrilled with Kane in the WHL playoffs, he looked very average to me, but he's no doubt a special kid with high upside and a good range of intangibles.

 

[noobman]

Guys that rely too much on their speed or too much on their size often have bust potential. A lot of these guys will depend too much on these skills and fail to develop a good level of hockey sense. When they get to the NHL they realize that there are guys faster than them, or bigger/stronger than them, and they just can't think the game well enough to keep up.

Alexandre Daigle is one of those pure speed guys.
Chad Kilger is one of those pure size guys.

Of all the forwards I've seen, MPS is the most likely to fail IMO.

 

[Michael Farkas]

You look at a guy like Peter Holland. Holland has the size, skillset, he's got a lot of tools at his disposal. High side: he plays the game like Eric Staal. Low side: He never sees an NHL rink. It remains to be seen whether or not Holland wants to bring the fire and passion every night. It remains to be seen whether or not he's content watching from the sidelines while his teammates go into the dirty areas to find pucks and scoring chances. He remains to be seen if he'll make the commitment off the ice to the game both physically and mentally. He has a high bust potential in my mind for those very reasons.

Ryan Ellis is another one for me. Does he possess some of the best offensive skillsets in the draft amongst blueliners? You better believe it. He's got a cannon, especially for such a little guy. He handles the power play with coolness and professionalism. What makes you wonder about him is, first, his size. Now, smaller players are becoming a big part of today's NHL game, but a lot of them (St. Louis, Rafalski, Gionta, etc.) all have major wheels...Ellis is up on cinderblocks. Defensively, you really have to wonder about his capability defensively. It makes you think a little when this guy can't contain junior level players that well but yet is very nearly a top 10 pick in an NHL draft. Can he play the pro game consistently 5 on 5? He doesn't have the ol' failsafe of skating and therefore, recovery ability. And then the high body fat at the combine, so, you're small, you're not a great skater, and you come up with that kind of body fat at the combine? That's a little worrisome to me, it's not nearly as big of a deal compared to what I saw on the ice this year (and I think Ray Bourque had like 20% body fat, and it worked out ok for him, or so I've heard)...but still it's icing on the cake (cheap Ellis joke to be made here?)...that's a player that worries down the line.

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

Guys that rely too much on their speed or too much on their size often have bust potential. A lot of these guys will depend too much on these skills and fail to develop a good level of hockey sense. When they get to the NHL they realize that there are guys faster than them, or bigger/stronger than them, and they just can't think the game well enough to keep up.

Alexandre Daigle is one of those pure speed guys.
Chad Kilger is one of those pure size guys.

Of all the forwards I've seen, MPS is the most likely to fail IMO.

Are you aware of the fact that MPS played an entire season in a men's league with bigger and stronger players before getting drafted?

Daigle just had QMJHL experience, and Kilger just had OHL experience.

Re: Ryan Ellis. While I understand why people doubt him, Nashville has an excellent track record for defensemen picked top 50 in the draft. Hamhuis, Slovak, Suter, Klein, Weber, Parent, Blum, Josi, Ellis and Roussel. Only one of the players who isn't still a prospect never made the NHL. And this organization picks Ellis ahead of Kulikov, Moore and Rundblad among others. So it would appear that the Preds predict Ellis to be able to overcome his current shortcomings.

 

[Levitate]

Where'd you get info on Ellis' body fat %?

 

[SK13]

Guys that rely too much on their speed or too much on their size often have bust potential. A lot of these guys will depend too much on these skills and fail to develop a good level of hockey sense. When they get to the NHL they realize that there are guys faster than them, or bigger/stronger than them, and they just can't think the game well enough to keep up.

Alexandre Daigle is one of those pure speed guys.
Chad Kilger is one of those pure size guys.

Of all the forwards I've seen, MPS is the most likely to fail IMO.

Neither Daigle or Kilger are busts. Busts don't play 500-700 NHL games. They don't play at all.

Hugh Jessiman is a bust.

 

[Moses Doughty]

And then the high body fat at the combine,

Where did you find that, I never heard about that. But Doughty was a chubby dude too, and look where he is now 1 year later. Granted he worked out like crazy over the summer and lost the weight.

 

[txomisc]

I think its generally players who arent well rounded who get labeled as having bust potential. Maybe a player has a single glaring weakness that could completely hamper their development. Could be attitude, size, skating or a lack of finishing ability. Basically any one attribute that is clearly questionable.

 

[CrosbyCrosby*]

Well at least your reasoning is sufficient...

it's just blatant racism. from what i've seen of kane live, he's got all the skills and talent, he just needs to share the puck when there is no play for him.