Speculation: Building the 2018-19 Blues

[MissouriMook]

Just killing some time during the dog days of summer thinking (or dreaming) about how to build the best possible team for the 2018-19 season, now that the roster for 2017-18 has taken shape. I'll start with the dream roster, and follow with how I got there.

Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Stastny-Schenn
Steen-Barbashev-Kostin
Paajarvi-Sobotka-Jaskin
(Sundqvist, Thorburn extras)

Dunn-Pietrangelo
Walman-Parayko
Edmundson-Schmaltz
(Bortuzzo extra)

Allen and Husso between the pipes

Based on the following, the cost of this roster is a cap hit of approximately $77M for that season. Here is how I got there.

New or retained:
Tavares - signed on July 1, 2018 to a 7 year, $70M deal ($10M AAV)
Fabbri - signed during the 2017-18 season to a 6 year, $30M extension ($5M AAV) after putting up 25 points in the first 30 games of the season
Stastny - signed during the 2017-18 season to a 4 year, $23M extension ($5.75M AAV)
Kostin - makes the team out of camp in 2018, though it could just as easily be Thompson or Kyrou
Paajarvi - signed in June 2018 to a 2 year, $2M extension ($1M AAV)
Jaskin - signed in June 2018 to a 2 year, $2.5M extension ($1.25M AAV)
Sundqvist - signed in June 2018 to a 1 year $750K extension
Schmaltz - makes the team out of camp in 2017 and provides a steady (if unspectacular) 20 points as our #3 RD, solidifying his roster spot.
Dunn - makes the team out of camp in 2017 and never looks back
Walman - makes his NHL debut in the 2017-18 season as an injury call up after tearing up the AHL; makes the team out of camp in 2018

No longer here:
Berglund - traded for futures on July 1, 2018 when his limited NTC kicks in.
Brodziak - allowed to leave as a UFA
Gunnarsson - traded in October 2017 for a draft pick to make room for Dunn, who has a phenomenal camp and pre-season
Hutton - allowed to leave as a UFA
Bouwmeester - traded in late February 2018 (probably along with a B prospect) for a 2018 late 1st round pick, making permanent room for Walman

Obviously, this must all be taken with a huge block of salt, but I think that puts together a lineup that should be a Cup favorite, not just a contender. Where do you see the logical flaws? What would you do differently?

Click to read more...

 

[TheDizee]

That defense is weak

 

[DatDude44]

The stastny contract is bad. can't resign him to a 4 year deal, needs to be 2 tops imo.

and if we were to somehow get johnny T and brayden schenn proves to be a fantastic 2C

Then we could save the stastny salary cap hit all together and roll with

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Fabbri-Schenn- Thompson/Kostin
Steen-Barbashev Kostin/Thompson
PRV- Sobotka- Bennett/Thorburn

Dunn(if he pops)- Petro
Eddy-Parayko
Walman- Schmaltz/Bortuzzo


With names like Robert Thomas and Samuel Blais coming into their own by this time as well.

 

[Spektre]

It's next to impossible to guess this year's lines let alone the 18-19 season. By that time you're looking at an extremely crowded roster with young blood fighting for a spot.

Thompson, Kostin, Kyrou, Sanford, & Barbashev are the forwards fighting to make it this year. We all pretty much believe Barbashev will be penciled in as the 3C with Berglund on the IR. If that's the case (((with Berglund on IR)) it makes for a 22 man roster:

Fabbri Schenn Tarasenko
Schwartz Stastny Sobotka
Steen Barbashev Bennett
Paajarvi Sundqvist Brodziak

extras - Thorburn & Jaskin

J-Bow Pie
Ed Parayko
Gunnar Bortuzzo

Allen & Hutton


Blues need 1 more player (((again with Berglund on the IR))) to make 23.

Fast forward a year from now. Stastny, Jaskin, Brodziak, Fabbri, Paajarvi, Sundqvist, & Bennett are all free agents. Paajarvi, Stastny, & Brodziak are all UFA's. I'm guessing most of those forwards are not resigned. The only one that is pretty much a sure thing is Fabbri if he continues his progression this year. Stastny is the team's best center today but I don't think he's safe and it's possible he's not the best center on the team by year's end.


There's about a million variables between now & then but I'll guess:


Fabbri Barbashev Tarasenko
Schwartz Schenn Kyrou
Steen Thompson Kostin
Berglund Sanford Sobotka

J-Bow Pie
Ed Parayko
Dunn Schmaltz

Allen, X


Total guess

 

[STL fan in MN]

Bennett is so overlooked he doesn't even make the "no longer here" list! Poor guy. And where's Sanford? In the minors both the next 2 seasons?

If Tavares somehow makes it to UFA I would be pretty shocked to see him pick STL as his destination. Gotta dream sometimes though I guess.

I also doubt Army would be comfortable going with that left side of the defense so quickly but really hard to say at this point where Dunn, Walman and Schmaltz will be a year from now in their development.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Bennett is so overlooked he doesn't even make the "no longer here" list! Poor guy. And where's Sanford? In the minors both the next 2 seasons?

If Tavares somehow makes it to UFA I would be pretty shocked to see him pick STL as his destination. Gotta dream sometimes though I guess.

I also doubt Army would be comfortable going with that left side of the defense so quickly but really hard to say at this point where Dunn, Walman and Schmaltz will be a year from now in their development.

I was wondering same thing... wasn't he a guy that Blues actually targeted as a "must include" for the Shattenkirk deal? he wasn't just a throw in

 

[Dbrownss]

Oh FFS Dunn is already top pairing quality....?

 

[BlueDream]

Stastny will not be back if we sign Tavares.

In fact, I don't think he'll be back regardless.

 

[Hockeyholic]

If the Blues win a Stanley Cup, is it possible they could become more popular than the Cards?

 

[David Dennison]

If the Blues win a Stanley Cup, is it possible they could become more popular than the Cards?

Nope.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

If the Blues win a Stanley Cup, is it possible they could become more popular than the Cards?

Yes.

Cards fans are more fickle than Blues fans and as bad as they're playing right now? Definitely possible

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I don't think the Cardinals will ever become less popular to the point that the aren't the main cultural icon in the city, but I do think that a cup or two would give the Blues a gigantic boost.

It would be similar to Chicago. Culturally, the Cubs and the Bear/Bulls depending on era have always been the city's heart, but the Blackhawks entered that mix considerably. Living near Chicago, and have lots of family members and friends that are Chicago sports fans, I would say at the Hawks' peak they were arguably the #1 team in town - but that's only because the Cubs were rebuilding and had been without a championship for over 100 years.

The Cards will have to be REALLY REALLY bad before the Blues can overtake them, and it may take 20 years of bad Cards teams to even get close to that - not to mention that multiple cups that it would take for the Blues to overtake even a slumping Cardinals.

 

[Dbrownss]

Stastny will not be back if we sign Tavares.

In fact, I don't think he'll be back regardless.

I agree with this...some of the comments from JR or Army(I dont member) really lead me to believe the 2 parties may not see eye to eye to warrent a new contract. Dude is a good player but would need to take a discount to stay. He was overpaid by a sizable amount given his inability to stay healthy and merely adequate production.

As a disclaimer...i realize i said about Berglund only for Army to not only give him a raise but a damn 5yr contract.



If we were to get Tavares, we'll look towards Barbashev/Sobokta to fill the hole

 

[BlueDream]

I agree with this...some of the comments from JR or Army(I dont member) really lead me to believe the 2 parties may not see eye to eye to warrent a new contract. Dude is a good player but would need to take a discount to stay. He was overpaid by a sizable amount given his inability to stay healthy and merely adequate production.

As a disclaimer...i realize i said about Berglund only for Army to not only give him a raise but a damn 5yr contract.



If we were to get Tavares, we'll look towards Barbashev/Sobokta to fill the hole

Yup. Stastny is a good, but not great player. He's going on 32 years old and can't seem to stay healthy with us. We already have Steen locked up until a later age. This will be Stastny's last chance to get a sizeable contract in his career so even though it'll be less than $7 million, I still see him seeking $5 million AAV for at least 4 more years. With the youth movement going on, I don't really see the Blues giving him that.

As for who will replace him, I have no idea. But if Brayden Schenn can look like a formidable top 6 center, and Barbashev takes some steps that make it look like he can also become a 2nd-line center in the near future, I think that would seal Stastny's fate and we would let him walk. We do of course have Sobotka too like you said, and Berglund if he isn't traded. Plus maybe guys like Sanford, Kyrou and Thompson are ready in a year and one can play C on the 3rd line. So looking at all these guys I just named, we may not have the 1C, but I think we're finally building up the depth at the C position which prepares us for Stastny's exit. If it looks like none of them can fill a top 6 role, then next Summer might be the time that Armstrong decides to package some of our prospects in a trade for someone that can.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I would be very surprised if we did not extend Stastny. If he makes it to FA then there might be something there, but I still would bet he signs with the Blues. Hometown, will be highly competitive, and he would get top 6 minutes with good wingers guaranteed. Even if we land Tavares, I don't see him wanting to leave and I don't see the Blues passing on a 3-4 year deal at 5M.

Stastny is a good 2C, and I don't see Schenn and Barbashev as our two top 6 centers of the future.

Without Tavares/big acquisition:

Schwartz Barbashev Tarasenko
Fabbri Stastny Schenn
Steen Sobotka Kostin

With Tavares/big acquisition

Fabbri Tavares Tarasenko
Schwartz Stastny Schenn
Sobotka Barbashev Kostin

If Fabbri becomes a C

Schwartz Fabbri Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Schenn
Sobotka Barbashev Kostin

If Schenn becomes a C

Schwartz Schenn Tarasenko
Steen Stastny Fabbri
Sobotka Barbashev Kostin

The only way we would not bring back Stastny is if one of Fabbri or Schenn became a C and we got Tavares/Barbashev blew us out of the water this year. I see this scenario as highly unlikely.

Stastny is a need now and in the future. 5Mx4 isn't too much for him, and we will have the cap space as well as the need for him at least until the third year of the deal.

For the record, I envision Thompson, Kyrou, and anyone else that is not named Thomas being a winger in the NHL, and don't foresee either Fabbri nor Schenn sticking at C (although Schenn could be a surprise). I also think that the removal of Bouwmeester, Gunnarsson, Berglund, and Steen will be more than enough cap to re-sign the kids while having money for Stastny. Tavares would require us moving out some more cap, but with a rising cap all of the above is possible.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

My dream scenario:

2018-19 STL Blues

Schwartz Duchene/Tavares Tarasenko
Fabbri Stastny Schenn
Steen Barbashev Kostin
Paajarvi Musil Sundqvist

Bouwmeester Pietrangelo
Dunn Parayko
Edmundson Schmaltz

Allen
Husso

Out:
Berglund - traded for picks
Gunnarsson - traded for picks
Walman - traded for either Duchene or Tavares
Thompson - traded for Tavares or still in the A
Sanford - traded for Tavares or still in the A
Sobotka - traded for either Duchene or Tavares
Hutton - leaves via FA
Bennett - leaves via FA (plays in Europe)

 

[SirPaste]

If the Blues win a Stanley Cup, is it possible they could become more popular than the Cards?

Zero chance

 

[Spektre]

Zero chance

I disagree. I'd say it's an incredible long shot, but not impossible.

Bring back early 90's losing Cardinal's baseball every year and have the Blues win a couple of cups at the same time, then the Blues would be the hottest ticket in town.

Almost every professional sports team's fans are fair weather. Cardinal's fans are no exception. When they're losing every year the fans stop going no matter how much they like the self proclaimed title "Best fans in baseball" or "Cardinal nation".

So it's not likely to happen but not impossible.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

If the Blues win a Stanley Cup, is it possible they could become more popular than the Cards?

If the Blues can win 2 cups in 3-4 year span and the NHL doesn't have another lockout. I think it'd also take the Cardinals missing the playoffs multiple times in the same time frame.

 

[Robb_K]

My dream scenario:

2018-19 STL Blues

Schwartz Duchene/Tavares Tarasenko
Fabbri Stastny Schenn
Steen Barbashev Kostin
Paajarvi Musil Sundqvist

Bouwmeester Pietrangelo
Dunn Parayko
Edmundson Schmaltz

Allen
Husso

Out:
Berglund - traded for picks
Gunnarsson - traded for picks
Walman - traded for either Duchene or Tavares
Thompson - traded for Tavares or still in the A
Sanford - traded for Tavares or still in the A
Sobotka - traded for either Duchene or Tavares
Hutton - leaves via FA
Bennett - leaves via FA (plays in Europe)

I think Bennett has a LOT better upside than casual fans think. He has a good skill level. But his production has been hurt due to lack of opportunity and injuries. I think he'll land the 3rd Line RW position for The Blues this season in Camp. He should also be in that position in 2018-19. He can play defence adequately, and should be able to score 30 points as a full-time 3rd Liner. Maybe he can also play on the 2nd PK shift.

 

[stl76]

I think Bennett has a LOT better upside than casual fans think. He has a good skill level. But his production has been hurt due to lack of opportunity and injuries. I think he'll land the 3rd Line RW position for The Blues this season in Camp. He should also be in that position in 2018-19. He can play defence adequately, and should be able to score 30 points as a full-time 3rd Liner. Maybe he can also play on the 2nd PK shift.

I agree Robb, and think it's very likely that Bennett locks down out 3RW spot out of camp. If he can stay healthy all season then 30+ points for Bennett would not surprise me at all...it's just that Bennett staying healthy all season would surprise me.

 

[BlueDream]

I think Bennett has a LOT better upside than casual fans think. He has a good skill level. But his production has been hurt due to lack of opportunity and injuries. I think he'll land the 3rd Line RW position for The Blues this season in Camp. He should also be in that position in 2018-19. He can play defence adequately, and should be able to score 30 points as a full-time 3rd Liner. Maybe he can also play on the 2nd PK shift.

With the youth the Blues have it's way too soon to suggest Bennett will be holding down that spot in 18-19. It's probably more likely that he isn't. We need to see how he looks first and if he can even do it this season. It'd be nice if he can but definitely not a sure thing, especially since you're predicting him to have a point total that he's never even reached before in his career.

Regarding the Stastny conversation, we will have to wait and see how everything plays out. But the Blues should definitely hold off on an extension for now. Too many variables.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I don't see us bringing Stastny back if we acquire Tavares(most likely TDL).

You could go a few different routes next year and they all look great.

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Steen-Fabbri-Schenn
Barbashev-Thompson/Kyrou-Kostin
Sanford-Sundqvist-Paajarvi

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Fabbri-Schenn-Tage/Kyrou/Kostin
Steen-Barbashev-Tage/Kyrou/Kostin

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Fabbri-Barbashev-Schenn
Steen-Thompson/Kyrou-Kostin

 

[Robb_K]

I don't see us bringing Stastny back if we acquire Tavares(most likely TDL).

You could go a few different routes next year and they all look great.

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Steen-Fabbri-Schenn
Barbashev-Thompson/Kyrou-Kostin
Sanford-Sundqvist-Paajarvi

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Fabbri-Schenn-Tage/Kyrou/Kostin
Steen-Barbashev-Tage/Kyrou/Kostin

Schwartz-Tavares-Tarasenko
Fabbri-Barbashev-Schenn
Steen-Thompson/Kyrou-Kostin

Is this 2017-18 or 2018-19? Do you really think either Thompson or Kyrou can win a regular centre position on The Blues 2nd or 3rd Line THIS season? Stastny is gone in your scenarios. So, I assume that Stastny goes to Islanders in the mid-season trade for Tavares. Would The Islanders really want him for 1/3 season, rather than some extra young prospect or draft choice?

Would The Blues be forced to send Stastny over in a trade for Tavares to fit the latter in under the cap? Wouldn't it be better for The Blues' chances in this season's playoffs, to keep Stastny, if they could? You're assuming that Fabbri or Schenn play well at centre (which is not a great bet at this time). Would a returned-from-surgery Berglund, or Sobotka centering Line 3 and Barbashev centering Line 2, be good enough to compete with the best teams?

 

[BlueDream]

Is this 2017-18 or 2018-19? Do you really think either Thompson or Kyrou can win a regular centre position on The Blues 2nd or 3rd Line THIS season? Stastny is gone in your scenarios. So, I assume that Stastny goes to Islanders in the mid-season trade for Tavares. Would The Islanders really want him for 1/3 season, rather than some extra young prospect or draft choice?

Would The Blues be forced to send Stastny over in a trade for Tavares to fit the latter in under the cap? Wouldn't it be better for The Blues' chances in this season's playoffs, to keep Stastny, if they could? You're assuming that Fabbri or Schenn play well at centre (which is not a great bet at this time). Would a returned-from-surgery Berglund, or Sobotka centering Line 3 and Barbashev centering Line 2, be good enough to compete with the best teams?

The name of the thread is about the 2018-2019 season.