Value of: Bridge Deal RFAs

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Exactly the players are looking for shorter term because they aren't getting what they'd want on longer term. I'd strongly argue 5-6yr deals would be much closer to Marner number and then we would be comparing apples to apples.
Yes the Avs seem to be pushing for term yet they haven't reached a deal... Because these RFA want shorter term.

Based on these two reports:





(Dater’s article says he wants 9.5)

It looks like Rantanen wants 6-8 years and the teams are in between a range of $8.4M and $9.5M. We’ll see what happens going forward but I’m pretty confident that Rantanen will sign for at least 6 years with a cap hit of at most $9.5M.

And you are ignoring the other RFAs that signed for term whose contracts don’t kick in until 2020. Chabot and Keller in particular both took 8 years and took fair cap hits on those terms. The difference here is that they are playing for re-building teams who aren’t totally cap-strapped. For those teams, and for a team like Colorado who wants to enter their window but who still has a lot of cap space, the long-term deals make the most sense and that is what their guys are signing. For the cap-strapped contending like Tampa, Boston, and Calgary, the bridge deal makes more sense.

We are just seeing a few more high-end RFAs come up on cap-strapped, contending teams than we did in the past.

 

[Beyonder91]

Based on these two reports:





(Dater’s article says he wants 9.5)

It looks like Rantanen wants 6-8 years and the teams are in between a range of $8.4M and $9.5M. We’ll see what happens going forward but I’m pretty confident that Rantanen will sign for at least 6 years with a cap hit of at most $9.5M.
And you are ignoring the other RFAs that signed for term whose contracts don’t kick in until 2020. Chabot and Keller in particular both took 8 years and took fair cap hits on those terms. The difference here is that they are playing for re-building teams who aren’t totally cap-strapped. For those teams, and for a team like Colorado who wants to enter their window but who still has a lot of cap space, the long-term deals make the most sense and that is what their guys are signing. For the cap-strapped contending like Tampa, Boston, and Calgary, the bridge deal makes more sense.

We are just seeing a few more high-end RFAs come up on cap-strapped, contending teams than we did in the past.

Keller is a good point and I was a little surprised to see that deal honestly. No question that was a fantastic deal for the Coyotes. We all know that none of this current RFA crop was signing that deal though.
The RFA defence market is different than forwards. I do really like that deal for Ottawa.
We will see what happens with Rantanen. I could see a $9.5 x 6 type deal. I will be shocked if he goes $9.5 x 8. That would be the contract that would truly make Marner's deal look terrible. I guess we shall see what happens there.

 

[deckercky]

To address the questions in the OP, the teams retain essentially 2 years of exclusive negotiating time (can negotiate a new contract beginning in the final year of bridge, and if the QO is signed, they can continue to negotiate a longer contract), and are the only teams able to offer 8 year deals.

The short deal is a great deal for the teams as well in some cases where you aren't sure what the player will be. Lots of these players are asking to be paid based on one elite year. Point will be a good player, but it's far from a guarantee that he'll remain a 90 pt player. Any of these players might incur injuries too, which cause a decline (some, like Boeser, have legitimate injury concerns making longer contracts risky).

Also remember, with these high QO deals that teams might elect to take the player to arbitration to reduce the QO by up to 10%. It's rare, but it could happen if one of these players isn't a $9-10M player at the end of the contract.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Keller is a good point and I was a little surprised to see that deal honestly. No question that was a fantastic deal for the Coyotes. We all know that none of this current RFA crop was signing that deal though.
The RFA defence market is different than forwards. I do really like that deal for Ottawa.
We will see what happens with Rantanen. I could see a $9.5 x 6 type deal. I will be shocked if he goes $9.5 x 8. That would be the contract that would truly make Marner's deal look terrible. I guess we shall see what happens there.

I don’t see why Keller is different than this year’s market, though. The reason he signed for 8 and the rest didn’t, IMO, is because he plays for a re-building team that isn’t cap-strapped.

If the final domino in Rantanen falls in at less than $9M on a 6-year term, or less than $9.5M on an 8-year term, would you agree that the RFA market hasn’t significantly changed? The only change that I could see argued is that guys are getting these hiked up QOs.

 

[Ditch Donkey]

Based on these two reports:





(Dater’s article says he wants 9.5)

It looks like Rantanen wants 6-8 years and the teams are in between a range of $8.4M and $9.5M. We’ll see what happens going forward but I’m pretty confident that Rantanen will sign for at least 6 years with a cap hit of at most $9.5M.

And you are ignoring the other RFAs that signed for term whose contracts don’t kick in until 2020. Chabot and Keller in particular both took 8 years and took fair cap hits on those terms. The difference here is that they are playing for re-building teams who aren’t totally cap-strapped. For those teams, and for a team like Colorado who wants to enter their window but who still has a lot of cap space, the long-term deals make the most sense and that is what their guys are signing. For the cap-strapped contending like Tampa, Boston, and Calgary, the bridge deal makes more sense.

We are just seeing a few more high-end RFAs come up on cap-strapped, contending teams than we did in the past.

I'm just gonna say this, you've stated everything that is valid along the lines of bridges deal and you've been more than clear.

People seem to the think with the last year of the deal being a higher hit is what they're expected to be get paid. Bridge deals holds young players accountable to their potential to be paid that amount. Teams and players can arbitrate like you've said, that final number is only a figure till the time actually comes. The players who have been offered bridges deals with that final figure is a potential steal as the cap is projected to continually increase with the new TV deal.

My view is bridge deals give flexibility, long term deals can be rewarding but also comes with a risk. Anyways my 2.0 is Marner should have been bridged all those long term deals look like a rocky ride when they all leave for UFA. But try telling that to a leafs fan..

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Curious... Why do you think all the talk this summer has been about how the top RFA players haven't wanted to sign for long-term? None of them have.

Team haven't been offering them long term AAV that satisfies them. Teams probably want those players at a steep discount since they have 4 RFA years left. I can't see Rantanen being offered 10.5 mill for 8 and turning that down. Probably getting offered 8.5-9 x 8 years.

 

[Beyonder91]

I don’t see why Keller is different than this year’s market, though. The reason he signed for 8 and the rest didn’t, IMO, is because he plays for a re-building team that isn’t cap-strapped.

If the final domino in Rantanen falls in at less than $9M on a 6-year term, or less than $9.5M on an 8-year term, would you agree that the RFA market hasn’t significantly changed? The only change that I could see argued is that guys are getting these hiked up QOs.

As I said none of this RFA forward class was signing that deal. I have no clue why Keller did either. It's a fantastic deal for the Yotes.
And no I don't agree that the RFA market has changed. As a whole, these players are coming in younger and better as a whole and are much more important to their teams in earlier years. They recognize this and are demanding they get paid top dollar for their prime years. Players waited their turn moreso in the past. This trend will only continue IMO. Teams will be paying their younger players the bigger dollars for their prime years and the older players past their prime will need to take discounts or be left in the wind.
Just because you reference a few odd contracts here and there does not change my opinion in the slightest.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

As I said none of this RFA forward class was signing that deal. I have no clue why Keller did either. It's a fantastic deal for the Yotes.
And no I don't agree that the RFA market has changed. As a whole, these players are coming in younger and better as a whole and are much more important to their teams in earlier years. They recognize this and are demanding they get paid top dollar for their prime years. Players waited their turn moreso in the past. This trend will only continue IMO. Teams will be paying their younger players the bigger dollars for their prime years and the older players past their prime will need to take discounts or be left in the wind.
Just because you reference a few odd contracts here and there does not change my opinion in the slightest.

A player’s prime years are between the ages of 22 and 26. By taking bridge deals these guys are literally getting paid less than ever in their prime years.

UFAs aren’t getting squeezed. If you look at something like Evolving Hockey’s contract projections, the sum of these RFAs are getting almost exactly their projected value on the terms they sign for where as UFAs are getting about 5-10% more than their projected value. This isn’t a few odd contracts at this point; it’s every contract that has been signed.



I can pull up the exact numbers later. But last time I checked the RFAs were at a little under 100% of expected cap hit and UFAs were at about 110% of expected cap hit.

Also, if you want to talk about a couple odd contracts, we’ve seen an unprecedented contract for a 50 point forward younger than 35 (Labanc) and a 30 point defenseman (DeAngelo).

 

[GirardSpinorama]

As I said none of this RFA forward class was signing that deal. I have no clue why Keller did either. It's a fantastic deal for the Yotes.
And no I don't agree that the RFA market has changed. As a whole, these players are coming in younger and better as a whole and are much more important to their teams in earlier years. They recognize this and are demanding they get paid top dollar for their prime years. Players waited their turn moreso in the past. This trend will only continue IMO. Teams will be paying their younger players the bigger dollars for their prime years and the older players past their prime will need to take discounts or be left in the wind.
Just because you reference a few odd contracts here and there does not change my opinion in the slightest.

huh? are you saying the bridge deals that significantly underpay these young players are not examples of players waiting their turn? Cause thats literally what it is.

 

[Beyonder91]

huh? are you saying the bridge deals that significantly underpay these young players are not examples of players waiting their turn? Cause thats literally what it is.

The cycle is just starting. Obviously there are some teams that literally can't afford to pay the players more. As more UFA contracts expire I believe the league will move towards the younger players taking up a larger part of the pool. Younger players are already starting to demand more money which is my whole point.

 

[Beyonder91]

A player’s prime years are between the ages of 22 and 26. By taking bridge deals these guys are literally getting paid less than ever in their prime years.

UFAs aren’t getting squeezed. If you look at something like Evolving Hockey’s contract projections, the sum of these RFAs are getting almost exactly their projected value on the terms they sign for where as UFAs are getting about 5-10% more than their projected value. This isn’t a few odd contracts at this point; it’s every contract that has been signed.



I can pull up the exact numbers later. But last time I checked the RFAs were at a little under 100% of expected cap hit and UFAs were at about 110% of expected cap hit.

Also, if you want to talk about a couple odd contracts, we’ve seen an unprecedented contract for a 50 point forward younger than 35 (Labanc) and a 30 point defenseman (DeAngelo).

I have no idea where these projections are coming from so I really can't comment on it. At first glance it seems a little odd though.
For example, your projection has Tkachuk for 3 years at ~$6.9M and 7 years at ~$7.8M. What exactly is the logic behind that? So buying an extra RFA year and 3 UFA years only bumps the player AAV up ~$900K?

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The cycle is just starting. Obviously there are some teams that literally can't afford to pay the players more. As more UFA contracts expire I believe the league will move towards the younger players taking up a larger part of the pool. Younger players are already starting to demand more money which is my whole point.

Unless the RFA rules change, I don't see that happening. O'Reilly and Nylander are the only two RFAs that I can think of that's sat for long periods of time. They're the exceptions not the norm.

 

[Beyonder91]

Unless the RFA rules change, I don't see that happening. O'Reilly and Nylander are the only two RFAs that I can think of that's sat for long periods of time. They're the exceptions not the norm.

You may be right. All I know is the league is getting more younger/skilled than ever before. It's inevitable that the younger players are going to start taking a bigger piece of the pie... especially in their prime years.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I have no idea where these projections are coming from so I really can't comment on it. At first glance it seems a little odd though.
For example, your projection has Tkachuk for 3 years at ~$6.9M and 7 years at ~$7.8M. What exactly is the logic behind that? So buying an extra RFA year and 3 UFA years only bumps the player AAV up ~$900K?

Obviously the projections aren’t perfect, but they’re pretty accurate on the macro level.



So when the RFAs are getting less than projected and the UFAs are getting more (again, need to double check this) it tells me that this shift isn’t happening at all. I still haven’t seen anybody provide real evidence of it either.

You can find the contract info here, BTW:

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You may be right. All I know is the league is getting more younger/skilled than ever before. It's inevitable that the younger players are going to start taking a bigger piece of the pie... especially in their prime years.

The NHL league average age in 2008-2009 is the exact same number as the NHL league average age in 2018-2019.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

You mean the highest bridge deals ever?

It was bound to happen. The previous highest RFA bridge was Gaborik's at 3×$6.3M over a decade ago.

The cap has gone up alot since then. In terms of % of cap, Gaborik's was 14% way back then. Point and Tkachuk don't even break 9%.

 

[Beyonder91]

Obviously the projections aren’t perfect, but they’re pretty accurate on the macro level.



So when the RFAs are getting less than projected and the UFAs are getting more (again, need to double check this) it tells me that this shift isn’t happening at all. I still haven’t seen anybody provide real evidence of it either.

You can find the contract info here, BTW:

I'll have to take a closer look at it later but just did a quick glance. Do they give their formula for calculating cap hit? Obviously, if they are using a teams cap situation they are going to be pretty damn accurate because some teams simply cannot afford to pay a player what they may be worth. This could also explain the weird numbers for Tkachuk.
I do see though that they were way off on the term lengths for most of the forward RFA. May speak to my point of the RFA wanting shorter term which is a bit of a change from the norm.
Anyways, when I have some time I'll take a closer look over it and give my 2 cents.

 

[Beyonder91]

The NHL league average age in 2008-2009 is the exact same number as the NHL league average age in 2018-2019.

That's interesting. I would not have guessed that. Very hard to believe actually... Where did you find that information?

 

[Beyonder91]

It was bound to happen. The previous highest RFA bridge was Gaborik's at 3×$6.3M over a decade ago.

The cap has gone up alot since then. In terms of % of cap, Gaborik's was 14% way back then. Point and Tkachuk don't even break 9%.

Yeah that was a different time... right around the start of the salary cap. It may have had something to do with that. I forget how everything worked with implementing the cap back then.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

The NHL league average age in 2008-2009 is the exact same number as the NHL league average age in 2018-2019.

I'd have to do some research to back it up, but I can't help but feel like the "stars" are hitting the NHL and making a bigger impact on the league sooner. Not sure how to quantify that best though admittedly.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

That's interesting. I would not have guessed that. Very hard to believe actually... Where did you find that information?

2008-09 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com

2018-19 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com

Look under “team statistics”. “League average” is at the bottom.

 

[Beyonder91]

I'd have to do some research to back it up, but I can't help but feel like the "stars" are hitting the NHL and making a bigger impact on the league sooner. Not sure how to quantify that best though admittedly.

Yep that is what I was thinking as well. Was hoping his source of information would have some sort of breakdown as well.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I don’t see why Keller is different than this year’s market, though. The reason he signed for 8 and the rest didn’t, IMO, is because he plays for a re-building team that isn’t cap-strapped.

If the final domino in Rantanen falls in at less than $9M on a 6-year term, or less than $9.5M on an 8-year term, would you agree that the RFA market hasn’t significantly changed? The only change that I could see argued is that guys are getting these hiked up QOs.

AND Keller is unproven and coming off 47 points, that is a massive deal for what he's done, he took that safety blanket and ran and Arizona didn't want to risk him having a big year and facing down the RFA situation next year. I understand what you are arguing but everyone on the planet acknowledges that the RFA market has changed, and yes, teams signed these bridge deals because they needed the flexibility, but also because they could not come to agreement on a long term solution, that I'm sure would've been favourable to most of them. I don't need to get into this with you again but these bridge deals are coming about because of the changing market, and I actually have not seen another living soul support the idea that "the market hasn't changed," it's such an odd hill to die on, yeah Marner signed a bad contract even compared to that but it has changed.

Edit:also those projected vs. reality graphics are useless if they're using flat cap hit with no consideration for term.

 

[tony d]

Seems like bridge deals are becoming popular things this off season. I think you'll see that for Connor and Rantanen while Laine gets traded.

 

[Bandit]

Not sure a deal for 7 million per is a bridge to anything other than another lockout, but I guess we'll see.