Brenden Dillon Vs. Justin Braun

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Brenden Dillon is 28 years old, left handed, and has one year left at $3.27M. He takes on soft competition in bottom pairing minutes and the advanced stats say that he crushes the competition. His track record in the playoffs is spotty.

Justin Braun is 32 years old, right handed, and has one year left at $3.8M. He takes on top-pairing competition in top-4 minutes and the advanced stats say that he does suppress the other team's offense, but not nearly as bad as he shuts down his own. His track record in the playoffs is solid.

I know that this isn't a sexy poll like Marner Vs. Gaudreau, but I think it's a more relevant discussion this time of year when most teams are looking to add one or two players of this caliber. It basically boils down to whether or not you take the guy who crushes soft bottom pairing minutes and posts great analytics, or the guy who takes daunting top-4 minutes and struggles to tread water in them?

So, who would you rather have on your team? Brenden Dillon or Justin Braun?

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[ijif]

Braun treds water in terms of raw values, but over the last two years, the sharks are really bad in a relative sense with Braun on the ice. Also, I have not seen any regression models that show great effects of QoC. Of course, that does not mean QoC does not have an effect, but I would need to see evidence to explain the huge differences in relative numbers. Braun also has much better QoT as measured by QoTCF%, and teammates have a greate effect than competition.
Another note would be that Braun does get some pretty bad zone starts, but again, I do not think the effect is huge. I could be wrong, though.
I guess I'm taking Dillion because I know exactly what type of minutes he needs to play to have a positive impact. This is from the point of view of a Sens fan, for what that is worth. I think the Sharks would want to keep Dillion because he did play very well with a healthy Karlsson, from what I remember.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd probably take Braun in a vacuum, but if i were in a situation like the Sharks where i have a pair of huge minute RHD ahead of him...i'd probably just roll with Dillon, as they have.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

definitely dillon. braun and vlasic have both fallen off hard in the last couple years. dillon was a bit carried by EK this year but i think hed be good on his own driving a 2nd pair

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

definitely dillon. braun and vlasic have both fallen off hard in the last couple years. dillon was a bit carried by EK this year but i think hed be good on his own driving a 2nd pair

Dillon doesn’t have the skills necessary to drive his own pairing.

 

[tony d]

I went with Braun.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Braun treds water in terms of raw values, but over the last two years, the sharks are really bad in a relative sense with Braun on the ice. Also, I have not seen any regression models that show great effects of QoC. Of course, that does not mean QoC does not have an effect, but I would need to see evidence to explain the huge differences in relative numbers. Braun also has much better QoT as measured by QoTCF%, and teammates have a greate effect than competition.
Another note would be that Braun does get some pretty bad zone starts, but again, I do not think the effect is huge. I could be wrong, though.
I guess I'm taking Dillion because I know exactly what type of minutes he needs to play to have a positive impact. This is from the point of view of a Sens fan, for what that is worth. I think the Sharks would want to keep Dillion because he did play very well with a healthy Karlsson, from what I remember.

The issue with regression models running against QoC (I've tried them as well) is that better players face better competition. Guys like Jonathan Toews and Joe Thornton are at the top of the ladder for TOI% QoC since the stat is available, and they're both still elite in CF%, GF%, etc. because they are elite players.

I would like to try running a regression for TOI% QoC on a season-to-season or even a game-to-game basis on the individual player level. I think you might find something there. Regarding zone starts, regressions do show a positive correlation between ZSR% and GF% but as with the QoC thing, it becomes a chicken/egg argument. Do better players just get started more in the offensive zone because they are better?