Brayden Point or Mark Scheifele

[DaggenFS]

Which one of these players do you think is better?

Scheifele

GP: 493
G: 173
A: 249
TP: 422
PPG: 0.86

Brayden Point

GP: 270
G: 109
A: 129
TP: 238
PPG: 0.88

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[bobholly39]

I feel like i know what Scheif is - great player.

Point is still a bit up in the air. I think he could end up being better but i wont say so for sure yet. Still voted for him

 

[ccman68]

Classic case of people just looking at points. Scheifele is maybe a bit better offensively but that isn’t enough to make up for the gap defensively.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Scheifle. He’s a beast!

 

[Lebowski]

View attachment 306603

Classic case of people just looking at points. Scheifele is maybe a bit better offensively but that isn’t enough to make up for the gap defensively.

It's a bit ironic for someone to devalue one's opinion on the basis that he only pays attention to points, while basing your own opinion on seemingly nothing but auto-generated charts.

I have more confidence in Scheifele being an elite point producer on his own than I have in Point.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Point

 

[tony d]

Close but Point.

 

[Krewe]

Point defensively but I think Scheifele is more proven offensively, even if Point had an awesome season last year. Close but I'll go for the homer vote

 

[Incognito]

I'd give the slight edge to Scheifele right now.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

It's a bit ironic for someone to devalue one's opinion on the basis that he only pays attention to points, while basing your own opinion on seemingly nothing but auto-generated charts.

I have more confidence in Scheifele being an elite point producer on his own than I have in Point.

Whoa, but that chart has 5 different statistics, 2 of which are largely derived from two other statistics of the five.

 

[Regal]

I'm curious about Scheifele's underlying stats slowly getting worse since his breakout season. Seems odd he would get a lot worse defensively/in possession as he moved through his prime. It's possible it was Wheeler propping them up and then him declining, but it seems like something else might be the reason.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Scheifele. Better all-around player. Point might put up a few extra points because he plays on a better team.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm curious about Scheifele's underlying stats slowly getting worse since his breakout season. Seems odd he would get a lot worse defensively/in possession as he moved through his prime. It's possible it was Wheeler propping them up and then him declining, but it seems like something else might be the reason.

Scheifele's 5-on-5 scoring rates have also significantly declined since his breakout season.

2013-2014: 1.74 points/60 (102nd)
2014-2015: 1.6 points/60 (120th)
2015-2016: 2.51 points/60 (5th)
2016-2017: 2.55 points/60 (5th)
2017-2018: 2.22 points/60 (45th)
2018-2019: 1.99 points/60 (87th)
2019-2020: 2.42 points/60 (36th)

He's rebounded to some degree this season, but that goes hand-in-hand with a 12.21% oiSH and a 19.30% individual SH%; both of which are reflected in the GF/60 column, and both of which will likely decline. Since the advanced stats that ccman68 posted were just at even strength, I think it's pretty reasonable to say that his decline in scoring efficiency coincides with his decline in underlying metrics at EV, to a degree that isn't skeptical on either end.

He has maintained his point totals due to three factors: An increase in TOI, both at 5V5 and on the PP, a substantial increase in league scoring rates, and a heavy increase in PP scoring rates.

Even if you just adjust for league scoring rates and missed games, Scheifele ranked higher in points per game in 2015-2016 (24th at 0.86) than he did in 2018-2019 (28th at 1.02). That's despite averaging 1:19 more 5V5 TOI/GP and 1:07 more PPTOI/GP in 2018-2019.

After adjusting for context, it seems pretty clear that his individual "point producing ability" has declined. It has definitely declined from 2016-2017, where he finished 7th in raw points, and 8th in points per game. Which makes it pretty reasonable to suggest that it's just an all-around decline.

It's a bit ironic for someone to devalue one's opinion on the basis that he only pays attention to points, while basing your own opinion on seemingly nothing but auto-generated charts.

I have more confidence in Scheifele being an elite point producer on his own than I have in Point.

It's not ironic, because that poster isn't devaluing somebody's opinion on the basis that they are only using one metric; he is devaluing their opinion based on the specific metric that they are using, which is just raw point totals without any sort of context applied, and probably with heavy recency bias in their evaluation, seeing as Point scored more points than Scheifele just last season. The standard deviations below and above average for the 5 metrics in the chart that he posted contain information that is far, far more nuanced than just raw point totals.

Since the start of 2017-2018 and all at 5-on-5, Mark Scheifele has scored 2.17 points per 60 minutes. Brayden Point has scored 2.65 points/60 without Nikita Kucherov. That's actually higher than the 2.57 points/60 that he scored in his minutes with Kucherov, and both came in a significant sample of 1,567 minutes with and 1,315 minutes without. I haven't even checked Scheifele's numbers without his best linemate (Blake Wheeler), but I'd imagine they're even further behind Point's numbers without Kucherov.

 

[valet]

Point is way better, and he hasn't even reached his peak yet. Very surprised to see Schiefele winning this poll. HFBoards continues to disappoint.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Close one. I think Point benefits from a pretty good surrounding cast in Tampa. Schief carries his team a little more and is more explosive offensively. Point does have a really good all-around game, though.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

in the 17-20 span point blows scheifele out of the water by RAPM. to be fair 18-19 was a down year for Mark, but even then point is a baller and is clearly better

 

[cneely]

View attachment 306997
in the 17-20 span point blows scheifele out of the water by RAPM. to be fair 18-19 was a down year for Mark, but even then point is a baller and is clearly better

I'm not an advanced stat guy, can you explain what I'm looking at? To me it looks like Point is better offensively, but worse defensively?

That's actually a little surprising to me if I'm reading it correctly. Over that time period, Point put up 0.98 PPG to Scheifele's 1.04, and Tampa is obviously a much higher scoring team.

 

[cneely]

Since the start of 2017-2018 and all at 5-on-5, Mark Scheifele has scored 2.17 points per 60 minutes. Brayden Point has scored 2.65 points/60 without Nikita Kucherov. That's actually higher than the 2.57 points/60 that he scored in his minutes with Kucherov, and both came in a significant sample of 1,567 minutes with and 1,315 minutes without. I haven't even checked Scheifele's numbers without his best linemate (Blake Wheeler), but I'd imagine they're even further behind Point's numbers without Kucherov.

Last year, Point spent about 10% of his ice time without one of Kucherov or Stamkos. This year, its even less.

Meanwhile, Scheifele this year has spent about half his time on a different line then Wheeler, mostly with Laine and Connor (both having career seasons for points). In previous years, Shceifele has spent the vast majority of his time with Wheeler.

Edit: numbers from here:
Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

 

[Merrrlin]

Im going very go Scheifele but good poll!

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I'm not an advanced stat guy, can you explain what I'm looking at? To me it looks like Point is better offensively, but worse defensively?

That's actually a little surprising to me if I'm reading it correctly. Over that time period, Point put up 0.98 PPG to Scheifele's 1.04, and Tampa is obviously a much higher scoring team.

no point is better on both sides. negative is good on things like xGA.

 

[cneely]

no point is better on both sides. negative is good on things like xGA.

Ah, got it. Thanks

 

[kp61c]

point is younger and better. frankly, not very close.

 

[PG Canuck]

Mark.

 

[The Macho King]

Mark.

He actually spells it Brayden.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Scheifele