Speculation: BPA vs Drafting for Need.

[Perfect_Drug]

So the train of thought has long been drafting the best player available.

There has been several issues with this method, least of which is the fewer number of trades that actually occur in the NHL. Even moreso, there seems to be fewer actual 'hockey trades', and more and more trades involving a player for draft picks/prospects.


After drafting BPA, we were supposed to be able to trade one of our 1st overall forwards to fill holes. (Or at least that was the train of thought).
Needing:
#1 Dmen
#1 Centre

(Note we would have just drafted Seguin and Larsson if we drafted for need).


I am wondering. Why is there such pressure for drafting BPA? It hasn't served us well, and we've been far worse because of it.

I don't think Columbus regrets drafting PMD over Puljujaarvi.


Aside from generational talents, I think there's a strong case to be made about drafting for need rather than BPA.

Click to read more...

 

[Oscar Acosta]

Problem is the Oil do neither. Because I keep old issues a while ago I went back and looked at if the Oilers just drafted the next available top rated player on the board as ranked by the Hockey News draft preview and over the last 10 years they’d be far better off if they scrapped all scout salary and just purchased these for $4.99 every year.

They tend to trade away picks for garbage or take random players like Alex Plante, then in rounds 2-3 draft Oil Kings and other useless filler.

Everyone can look back at Yak now and say it was a bad pick but it’s not like Murray is a world beater now either. Go back to that day I still take Nail 10 times out of 10. Nobody saw it coming, or he’d be ranked 85th.

 

[48g90a138pts]

You see the NFL drafts where teams will constantly pass over BPA, and even best player available in a draft in order to draft for need.

The Oilers could have traded down with all those 1st overalls from 2010-13 and built a powerhouse defensive prospect list which all would be coming into their primes now. Such a massive missed opportunity.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

We are set with centers so unless we are taking them beyond the lottery, you don't pick a center early unless he is McDavid/Drai level. We need defense in a big way, defensemen are priced at a premium to acquire and that likely won't change. If we draft a forward this year in the 1st he had damn well better be an exceptional one.

 

[Senor Catface]

One of the first things we need to do is find the scout that keeps suggest players from the BCHL and shoot him into the sun.

 

[McDNicks17]

It hasn't worked because the BPAs have sucked, unfortunately.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

One of the first things we need to do is find the scout that keeps suggest players from the BCHL and shoot him into the sun.

Khaira has turned out alright?

 

[MoneyGuy]

Khaira has turned out alright?

Blind squirrel...acorn

 

[Senor Catface]

Khaira has turned out alright?

Haha, yeah, just a joke about some of the duds in the past.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Everyone can look back at Yak now and say it was a bad pick but it’s not like Murray is a world beater now either. Go back to that day I still take Nail 10 times out of 10. Nobody saw it coming, or he’d be ranked 85th.

Rumor had it PK subban was available for the pick.

 

[Fourier]

You see the NFL drafts where teams will constantly pass over BPA, and even best player available in a draft in order to draft for need.

The Oilers could have traded down with all those 1st overalls from 2010-13 and built a powerhouse defensive prospect list which all would be coming into their primes now. Such a massive missed opportunity.

The NFL is very different than the NHL. You have 22 players starting each game and many of them have very specialized roles. There is a big difference in what you are looking for between a left tackle and a center. If you already have a great young left tackle you don't pick one hoping he can just play center for you instead.

 

[CupofOil]

You see the NFL drafts where teams will constantly pass over BPA, and even best player available in a draft in order to draft for need.

The Oilers could have traded down with all those 1st overalls from 2010-13 and built a powerhouse defensive prospect list which all would be coming into their primes now. Such a massive missed opportunity.

NFL draft prospects are much different than NHL prospects in the sense that they are expected to become starters right away, even the 3rd and 4th round picks. They are plug and play right off the bat.
Also, NFL prospects are usually 20+ years old and there's no development program like juniors, AHL, Euro leagues etc, so these players are expected to have immediate impact so NFL teams are drafting for immediate need.

My overall point is that NHL teams, especially in the 1st round, aren't drafting for immediate need because when most of these prospects are NHL ready, team needs usually change from the time they were drafted so they draft the player who has the highest upside usually. Of course it's all situational though.

The problem with the Oilers hasn't necessarily been who they drafted, it's been how they were developed after they were drafted and to be quite honest. it doesn't seem like the development system has improved much in these early days of the new regime.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

If the Oilers use their first round pick to draft anything other than a defenseman they clearly haven't learned anything.

 

[rambo97]

If the Oilers use their first round pick to draft anything other than a defenseman they clearly haven't learned anything.

This. So much this. Defense is much more important position than winger. The Oilers should have prioritized C, D, then W and finally G in all there drafts.

I agree in theory that BPA over need. But if the value is close, I think you should prioritize for need. But with BPA you should also look at which positions are most important. For me it's

C >= D > W > G (I would have goalie higher but they are a crapshoot so I've listed them last)

 

[Canovin]

BPA.

If those BPA's(Hall, RNH and Yak) came into the NHL on this Oilers team, they would reach their potential.

 

[Digger12]

The reason that BPA is the generally accepted draft practice for NHL teams is that for the vast majority of the picks, they're being selected based on:

1 - How they performed based on how they performed as 17 year old kids.
2 - How teams view a prospect's potential and their likelihood to reach that potential.

With so many draft picks taking 3-5 years to fully develop into everyday players, who's to say what your team's needs will be at the time the pick is ready to contribute.

The caveat to this is when teams draft BPA for their top picks, then for need in the later rounds because once you get in the 3rd round and later it becomes a real crapshoot and "BPA" is much harder to quantify because literally only one pick out of twenty at that point will ever turn into an NHL player...so at that point you may as well draft for organizational need and hope the dice roll your way.

 

[bone]

This. So much this. Defense is much more important position than winger. The Oilers should have prioritized C, D, then W and finally G in all there drafts.

I agree in theory that BPA over need. But if the value is close, I think you should prioritize for need. But with BPA you should also look at which positions are most important. For me it's

C >= D > W > G (I would have goalie higher but they are a crapshoot so I've listed them last)

I don't know about that. Getting a true top line D doesn't necessary come from picking them early. Norris winners since 2000 include Lidstrom (53), Chara (56), Subban (43), Keith (54), Karlsson (15), Doughty (2), Burns (20). Only one of them would be consider a truly high pick, and more second rounders than first rounders.

I think the problem when evaluating defensemen pre-draft is that a lot of highly touted early picks have overstated abilities quite possibly due to early physical development and that advantage disappears quickly when they go pro. So it depends on exactly how early in the draft you are picking and the individuals.

Agreed though that all things equal though between a Centre and Winger, I'd pick the Centre more times than not unless there is something unusually spectacular about the player (i.e. Hall in junior was a spectacle to behold and he truly is one of the few that can drive a line from the wing).

 

[CycloneSweep]

We are set with centers so unless we are taking them beyond the lottery, you don't pick a center early unless he is McDavid/Drai level. We need defense in a big way, defensemen are priced at a premium to acquire and that likely won't change. If we draft a forward this year in the 1st he had damn well better be an exceptional one.

Unless you are confident that the center an be a legit top 6 winger. Then having a winger that can play center is very valuable.

 

[Hynh]

Need has 2 facets. NHL need and prospect pool need. Right now the NHL need is W, D and G. However the prospect pool need is C by a mile. Teams go wrong drafting for need because they don't build a balanced prospect pool or at least a pool that's full at the important positions (C and D).

 

[CaptainSexyPants]

I am wondering. Why is there such pressure for drafting BPA?

1) By definition, the the BPA has the best odds of success. If scouts feel that the best LW available has a 75% chance at becoming an impact player but the best D has a 50% chance at just being a regular NHLer, it's pretty silly to take the defenceman, imo.

2) It's years before most of these guys get to the team, if at all (let alone actually make an impact) and needs change every season.

3) Regularly, guys get drafted with the idea they'll be an offensive D or a top line scorer, and they IF they can carve out a spot in the NHL they end up as a stay at home D or a bottom 6 grinder because their offensive skills didn't translate well enough.

So even if (A) the player pans out as a regular NHL'er, and (B) years later when he makes the team you still have a dire need for that role...(C) did the players skills also progress? For example, you need a defenceman with a rocket from the point in 2018. It's 2022; fortunately, he panned out and he's on the team, and fortunately you still have a dire need for that point shot. But maybe the shot that was a "rocket" in the WHL is only "average" in the NHL. Or maybe it's still a rocket, but he's half a second too slow for the pace of the NHL and he can't get it off consistently.

Drafting is already such a giant crap shoot, I don't know why you would ever choose to add additional risk factors. Play it safe and follow the K.I.S.S. rule, imo. Just take the kid with the best shot at success and don't get greedy.

 

[Mr Positive]

I used to be religiously in favor of drafting the BPA every time, but I think it is a bit of a myth now. GMs almost always draft based on need. The exceptions are when there is a gulf in talent between the players they are picking (in which case arguably it is still a need based pick, just with a transforming team identity), or when owners or higher ups want a flashy potential franchise player (ie Yakupov). Even with Yak, Tambi and the scouts apparently wanted Murray so you can see that need is important. I wasn't all that surprised when Columbus took Dubois over JP for that very reason.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Regarding Need:

If you need a #1C now, Chances are you will need one 5 years from now.

They don't get traded, and they rarely hit UFA.

Same could be said about RHD, #1D, and starting goalie.

WYDIWYG

What you draft is what you get. Seldom do teams acquire what they need through trade or free agency.

 

[thadd]

You've gotta draft at least 1 d-man in the first 3 rounds and 1 goalie in the first 4 rounds.
Everything else you can go BPA.

 

[Jamin]

It takes years to develop and team need can change so go Board imo.

Why would you draft wingers when you have Hall, Eberle, Pouliot, yak etc. Fast forward to now and we wish we had wingers.

If best player available is a center you don't not take him cause mcdavid and drai. Who knows with injuries or trades what team need will be 3 years from now.

Imagine if Nashville didn't take Seth Jones because they had dman, people would be roasting their GM. Instead they trade from a strength to fill a need not draft to fill a need.

 

[oXo Cube]

Best. Player. Available. Having more talent than you have room for isn't a problem it's a great situation to be in.

Additionally, 90+% of your draft choices are 3+ years away from realistically playing in the NHL and your team needs could be and often are entirely different by then.