Boucher Scouting: Habs: Impact of Quality of Competition on even-strength risk/reward

[just_thoughts]

Boucher Scouting: Habs: Offensive-zone play broken down into points, passes and shots

HABS: Most Successful Forecheckers

Offensive-zone Success-rates when attempting to remove or acquire puck-possession

Focusing on a player's defensive-rating in the offensive-zone may seem contradictory, but it's actually an attempt at rating each player's ability to create turnovers in the offensive-zone. Players that rate high in this category are generally a team's best forecheckers.

http://www.boucherscouting.com

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[MXD]

Wow... Really surprised at Emelin's rating!

 

[DekeLikeYouMeanIt]

I'm not. I always remember him keeping the puck alive just at the blue line.

Another interesting 'report' from you, Chris.

 

[vokiel]

Mathieu Darche

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

I'm not. I always remember him keeping the puck alive just at the blue line.

Another interesting 'report' from you, Chris.

I think I remember him getting burned quite badly on some of the 18% he failed, but I really love the aggressive instincts and the work on his anticipation so soon into his NHL transition.

 

[yianik]

The numbers seem really high. I mean if our worst players are winning the puck or blocking it 64 % of the time then we have the deadliest forcheck and werent using it enough, the numbers dont make sense which Ill rule out, or Im not getting the meaning of the numbers.

 

[Et le But]

So much for Kostitsyn being useless defensively.

 

[WeberBombs]

So much for Kostitsyn being useless defensively.

Forechecking is one of the parts of his game in which AK got better in the past few years but few people seemed to realize it.

 

[DekeLikeYouMeanIt]

So much for Kostitsyn being useless defensively.

This has nothing to do with defence.

 

[Bullsmith]

I think people underestimate just how good Emelin could turn out to be. I'm not surprised at all that Emelin, Markov and Subban are the best pinching d-men. Markov and Emelin know how to pick their spots and are really good about dishing or dumping quickly when they get the puck. Subban's just an athletic beast who pinches a bit too much, but is damn difficult to win the puck from if the battle's even close to even.

We have some excellent D, we just didn't have anything close to the right mix of them last season. If you replaced Kaberle and Weber with bigger, more defensively reliable D you'd have a fairly solid mix on the back end.

 

[just_thoughts]

The numbers seem really high. I mean if our worst players are winning the puck or blocking it 64 % of the time then we have the deadliest forcheck and werent using it enough, the numbers dont make sense which Ill rule out, or Im not getting the meaning of the numbers.

The average changes depending on the event tracked. Plays included in this calculation are not like faceoffs, where both players are fighting for a loose-puck and the chances are 50/50. The average success-rates in each event are different. For example, the average success-rate for a player attempting to beat another player 1on1 with a deke is around 30%, the average success-rate for a player attempting a pass is around 69%. Because of this we have to compare the results against the average within that category, and not simply use 50% +1 as the acceptable success-rate.

Feel free to read through the FAQ's on the site for more information, or you can email me directly and I'll be glad to answer any questions.

Thanks for your interest.
Christopher Boucher

 

[Pr3Va1L]

I would be very curious to see a "succes rate x QualComp" stat.

Your stats make sense, but it hurts me to see guys like Plecanek getting bad stats all over the place because he faced stiffer competition (and therefore has a lower success rate in everything)

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

This has nothing to do with defence.

Well, playing without the puck is like playing defence.

 

[vokiel]

Well, playing without the puck is like playing defence.

No, what are you talking about? Someone waiting for a pass to shoot isn't playing defense.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

No, what are you talking about? Someone waiting for a pass to shoot isn't playing defense.

I meant playing without the puck while the opponent has it is like playing defence.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

I meant playing without the puck while the opponent has it is like playing defence.

You're right. In fact, defense - by definition - is everything you do while the opponent has the puck; regardless of where it is on the ice.

 

[Mrb1p]

You're right. In fact, defense - by definition - is everything you do while the opponent has the puck; regardless of where it is on the ice.

So Kaberle is actually good at THE defense ?

 

[Et le But]

This has nothing to do with defence.

Trying to get the puck back isn't defense?

 

[just_thoughts]

HABS: One-game Scouting Report for Steve Quailer

Steve Quailer was drafted by the Montreal Canadiens in the third round of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft. He's a 6'4", 200 lbs left-handed winger. Quailer was recently signed to his first pro contract, and will likely start the upcoming season as a member of the Hamilton Bulldogs.

Quailer scored 8 goals and added 17 assists though 26 games with Northeastern University last season. This one-game scouting report is from Quailer's final NCAA game on March 3rd, 2012; a 5-3 win over Boston University. He played both wings during the game, and was a big part of both the PK and PP units.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2012/07/habs-one-game-scouting-report-for-steve.html

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

So Kaberle is actually good at THE defense ?

Haha, well played.

 

[just_thoughts]

HABS: Neutral-zone Success-rates while Defending

The eventual goal of any defending player in the neutral-zone is to remove or regain puck-possession. Creating neutral-zone turnovers is a huge part of every NHL team's game-plan. These turnovers can be accomplished by winning a puck-battle (either with a hit or with a stick-check), recovering a loose-puck, or intercepting a pass. The graph is a visual representation of every Montreal Canadiens skater's success-rate when engaging in one of these neutral-zone events. The calculation allows us to quantify each player's ability to play defense by either removing or regaining puck-possession from the opposing team. The events used in this calculation include:

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2012/05/habs-neutral-zone-success-rates-while.html

 

[Davebo*]

Forechecking is one of the parts of his game in which AK got better in the past few years but few people seemed to realize it.

No - I think most of us saw it - and appreciated that. It was the lack of consistency that bugged me, personally.

If Andre could somehow overcome that I'd love him back at some point.

 

[Belso]

Well they finished at the bottom of the league. Whatever they were good at didn't seem to help much..

Hopefully next season they can improve on the most important stat. Wins.

 

[just_thoughts]

Habs: Defensive-zone Success-rates

Mathieu Darche was the Canadiens most successful defending-player

I have tracked every puck-possession play by every Montreal Canadiens player this season; a total of 87,402 events.

The eventual goal of any defending player in the defensive-zone is to remove or regain possession of the puck. This can be accomplished by winning a puck-battle (either with a hit or with a stick-check), recovering a loose-puck, blocking a shot, or intercepting a pass. The graph below is a visual representation of every Montreal Canadiens skater's success-rate when engaging in one of these events.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2012/05/habs-defensive-zone-success-rates.html

 

[just_thoughts]

HABS: Impact of Quality of Competition on Even-strength Risk/reward Ratings

No one system gives us the all-encompassing information on a player's value; at least not yet. In a constant effort to improve my player rating system, I've looked into more traditional advanced-stats metrics in order to see if there was anything that could by applied to my system.

Fenwick and Corsi numbers take a global picture of what occurs when a player is on the ice (shots attempted for and against), and uses those numbers to rate individual players. My system tries to take the individual player's puck-possession successes and failures (passes, dekes, puck-battles, etc) to get to the same point.

http://www.boucherscouting.com/2012/07/habs-impact-of-quality-of-competition.html