Bob Cole Divisional Finals: Kazan vs. Philadelphia

[BillyShoe1721]

AK BARS KAZAN
АК БАРС КАЗАНЬ

Coach: Toe Blake
Captain: Sprague Cleghorn
Alternate Captains: Zdeno Chara, Eric Desjardins, Mike Modano

#25 Dave Andreychuk - #10 Jean Ratelle - #68 Jaromir Jagr
#7 Vic Stasiuk - #9 Mike Modano (A) - #33 Zigmund Palffy
#4 Bob Davidson - #18 Walt Tkaczuk - #16 Eric Nesterenko
#26 Mats Naslund - #15 Bobby Smith - #17 Mike Foligno
#8 Johnny Wilson
#14 Barney Stanley
#12 Tom Lysiak

#3 Zdeno Chara (A) - #2 Sprague Cleghorn (C)
#5 Mike Ramsey - #37 Eric Desjardins (A)
#6 Calle Johansson - #23 Petr Svoboda
#44 Alexei Zhitnik

#1 Johnny Bower
#11 Roberto Luongo

PP1
Ratelle - Andreychuk - Jagr
Cleghorn - Desjardins

PP2
Naslund - Smith - Palffy
Chara - Modano

(Jagr will take extended shifts on PP.)

PK1
Tkaczuk - Nesterenko
Chara - Ramsey
Bower

PK2
Modano - Davidson
Cleghorn - Desjardins
Bower

other PKers: Johansson, Svoboda, Ratelle, Palffy, Smith, Davidson, Stanley, Lysiak

vs.

Philadelphia Flyers
Head Coach: Lindy Ruff
Captain: Ebbie Goodfellow
Alternate Captains: Gordie Howe, Trevor Linden

Paul Kariya-Joe Nieuwendyk-Gordie Howe(A)
Dickie Moore-Joe Primeau-Babe Dye
Adam Graves-Fred Stanfield-Harry Hyland
Reg Fleming-Trevor Linden(A)-Kenny Wharram
Neal Broten, Bill Thoms, Victor Shalimov

Borje Salming-Leo Boivin
Ebbie Goodfellow(C)-Leo Reise Jr.
Reed Larson-Dallas Smith
Doug Barkley

Jiri Holecek
Henrik Lundqvist

PP1

Kariya-Nieuwendyk-Howe
Salming-Larson

PP2

Moore-Primeau-Dye
Goodfellow-Stanfield

PK1

Primeau-Fleming
Salming-Smith

PK2

Graves-Linden
Goodfellow-Reise

PK3

Moore-Howe
Boivin-Smith​

Click to read more...

 

[BillyShoe1721]

I think this series is going to come down to if Ak Bars' defense and goaltending is good enough to make up for Philadelphia's advantage in offense, and the fact that Ak Bars' LWs are not at all suited to defend against Gordie Howe, Babe Dye, and Harry Hyland.

 

[overpass]

Billy, Kazan is the city and Ak Bars is the team nickname.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Billy, Kazan is the city and Ak Bars is the team nickname.

Changed the title. I think Sturminator also posted it like this in the first round.

 

[nik jr]

i will make some lineup changes.


andreychuk - ratelle - jagr
stasiuk - modano - palffy
davidson - tkaczuk - nesterenko
naslund - smith - foligno

davidson will also take wilson's place on 2nd PK.

naslund will still get some shifts on 1st line, but andreychuk will get more. naslund and smith were linemates for years in montreal.

2 weak defensive players like andreychuk and jagr on the same line is generally a bad idea, but i think it is offset by the dominant possession game of jagr. andreychuk had little value outside the offensive zone, so playing with jagr, who typically drove play into the offensive zone, increases his value.



davidson was one of the top defensive F's of late '30s and '40s, and became famous for shadowing maurice richard. see my bio of davidson for more detail.

davidson will shadow howe, but obviously will not play as much as howe. i think davidson is one of the best possible options in ATD to shadow howe. davidson was very physical, was about the same size as howe, an agitator and also had enough speed to shadow rocket richard, who was faster than howe.

this switch means the loss of some offensive ability, but i think the tradeoff is worth it.

nesterenko switched to LW and shadowed howe for at least some of '63 playoffs, but that was unusual.

I think this series is going to come down to if Ak Bars' defense and goaltending is good enough to make up for Philadelphia's advantage in offense, and the fact that Ak Bars' LWs are not at all suited to defend against Gordie Howe, Babe Dye, and Harry Hyland.

i agree that your offense vs my D is the big question of this series.

i think you have advantages in almost every offensive area, and i have advantages in almost every defensive area.

d-men are much more important defensively than F's, especially W's, so howe, dye and hyland will mostly see d-men. but howe will get special attention from bob davidson.





matchups

i want my top 2 d-pairs to play against philadelphia's top 2 lines. primarily cleghorn and chara vs howe, and ramsey and desjardins against moore - primeau - dye.

my 3rd line will play against howe, but will not be hard matched.

i will probably not worry much about other matchups between F's.

i want jagr to play more against philadelphia's 2nd and 3rd pairs, but more important is starting in the offensive or neutral zone.




C vs C
although philadelphia has better F's, kazan has better C's, both offensively and defensively. bobby smith was a 2 way player who played under defensive minded coaches (lemaire, burns, gainey, perron) for most of his career, but i think was below linden defensively.

b/c philadelphia's goalscoring W's, particularly dye, hyland, graves and wharram, rely on the playmaking ability of their C's, the offensive flow of the lines can be restricted by disrupting primeau, stanfield and linden. i think the 2 way ability of my C's will be able to do that, particularly in the neutral zone.

this may not be as important against moore - primeau - dye, b/c moore was also a very good playmaker, but babe dye was a very limited player other than his shot.



neutral zone
kazan will not dominate the neutral zone, but i think will have better control of the neutral zone, as a result of its defensive superiority, especially among d-men and C's. this will somewhat mitigate philadelphia's offensive superiority.



howe
unlike with philadelphia's other lines, C is not the key cog of the 1st line, howe is.

even ignoring his offensive ability, howe is the key player on his line b/c he could dominate possession, is the best puck carrier and passer, and is the best on the boards and in defensive play.

philadelphia's 1st line is very dangerous, but i think the players are not the best fit. nieuwendyk was a goalscorer more than a playmaker, was not very good at creating his own offense, and partly as a result, relied on PP for his scoring.

to some extent, the line relies too much on howe, and so i think having a great shadow like davidson on him will disrupt the line's possession game, and force nieuwendyk into a bigger role.


tkaczuk, davidson and nesterenko were all noted for their defensive coverage, physicality and backchecking. the key to this matchup is pressuring howe, kariya and nieuwendyk in the neutral zone, and forcing them into an ugly game on the boards in all zones, where my larger and stronger players will have an advantage.

when my 3rd line is not facing howe, i will have to rely on cleghorn and chara and general team D.



jagr vs howe at ES

can someone post howe's ES/PP/SH scoring in early-mid '50s?

based on a couple of overpass' posts, i am thinking that jagr is a better ES scorer than howe, but that may be wrong. the large team effects of an unbalanced league of 6 teams are also important to consider, and probably worked against and for howe at different times.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

philadelphia's 1st line is very dangerous, but i think the players are not the best fit. nieuwendyk was a goalscorer more than a playmaker, was not very good at creating his own offense, and partly as a result, relied on PP for his scoring.

I would love to see a breakdown of his EV vs PP scoring[/quote]

 

[overpass]

jagr vs howe at ES

can someone post howe's ES/PP/SH scoring in early-mid '50s?

based on a couple of overpass' posts, i am thinking that jagr is a better ES scorer than howe, but that may be wrong. the large team effects of an unbalanced league of 6 teams are also important to consider, and probably worked against and for howe at different times.

Here are the top 5's in ESP and PPP from 1952-53 (the farthest back the HSP special teams info goes) to 1957-58.

1952-53

Rank | Player | ESG | ESA | ESP
1 | Gordie Howe | 37 | 28 | 65
2 | Ted Lindsay | 23 | 30 | 53
3 | Wally Hergesheimer | 23 | 24 | 47
4 | Maurice Richard | 21 | 23 | 44
5 | Alex Delvecchio | 13 | 29 | 42

Rank | Player | PPG | PPA | PPP
1 | Gordie Howe | 11 | 16 | 27
2 | Elmer Lach | 8 | 13 | 21
3 | Bert Olmstead | 8 | 13 | 21
4 | Doug Harvey | 2 | 18 | 20
5 | Alex Delvecchio | 3 | 14 | 17

1953-54

Rank | Player | ESG | ESA | ESP
1 | Gordie Howe | 20 | 31 | 51
2 | Maurice Richard | 22 | 18 | 40
3 | Ed Sandford | 13 | 23 | 36
4 | Tod Sloan | 11 | 25 | 36
5 | Don Raleigh | 13 | 23 | 36

Rank | Player | PPG | PPA | PPP
1 | Camille Henry | 20 | 12 | 32
2 | Gordie Howe | 12 | 17 | 29
3 | Maurice Richard | 15 | 11 | 26
4 | Ted Lindsay | 11 | 15 | 26
5 | Max Bentley | 9 | 14 | 23

1954-55

Rank | Player | ESG | ESA | ESP
1 | Maurice Richard | 27 | 22 | 49
2 | Jean Beliveau | 23 | 24 | 47
3 | Ken Mosdell | 19 | 27 | 46
4 | Bernard Geoffrion | 25 | 19 | 44
5 | Gordie Howe | 20 | 22 | 42

Rank | Player | PPG | PPA | PPP
1 | Bernard Geoffrion | 13 | 18 | 31
2 | Jean Beliveau | 14 | 12 | 26
3 | Doug Harvey | 3 | 23 | 26
4 | Maurice Richard | 11 | 14 | 25
5 | Dutch Reibel | 8 | 16 | 24
8 | Gordie Howe | 7 | 10 | 17

1955-56

Rank | Player | ESG | ESA | ESP
1 | Andy Bathgate | 12 | 37 | 49
2 | Jean Beliveau | 28 | 21 | 49
3 | Tod Sloan | 27 | 18 | 45
4 | Maurice Richard | 25 | 17 | 42
5 | Gordie Howe | 24 | 17 | 41

Rank | Player | PPG | PPA | PPP
1 | Jean Beliveau | 19 | 18 | 37
2 | Gordie Howe | 14 | 23 | 37
3 | Maurice Richard | 13 | 17 | 30
4 | Red Kelly | 10 | 18 | 28
5 | Bert Olmstead | 5 | 23 | 28

1956-57

Rank | Player | ESG | ESA | ESP
1 | Gordie Howe | 30 | 27 | 57
2 | Ted Lindsay | 23 | 33 | 56
3 | Don McKenney | 18 | 35 | 53
4 | Jean Beliveau | 21 | 30 | 51
5 | Ed Litzenberger | 28 | 22 | 50

Rank | Player | PPG | PPA | PPP
1 | Jean Beliveau | 12 | 19 | 31
2 | Gordie Howe | 14 | 16 | 30
3 | Andy Bathgate | 6 | 20 | 26
4 | Doug Harvey | 2 | 24 | 26
5 | Dickie Moore | 14 | 9 | 23

1957-58

Rank | Player | ESG | ESA | ESP
1 | Henri Richard | 22 | 38 | 60
2 | Bronco Horvath | 27 | 28 | 55
3 | Gordie Howe | 21 | 29 | 50
4 | Dickie Moore | 22 | 27 | 49
5 | Vic Stasiuk | 17 | 32 | 49

Rank | Player | PPG | PPA | PPP
1 | Dickie Moore | 13 | 20 | 33
2 | Camille Henry | 18 | 12 | 30
3 | Andy Bathgate | 6 | 22 | 28
4 | Gordie Howe | 9 | 14 | 23
5 | Jean Beliveau | 6 | 17 | 23

Howe had 4 SHG and 2 SHA over this time period. Since SHG were less common at the time, that was 8th in the NHL over that time (behind Ron Stewart, Toppazzini, Curry, Migay, Pavelich, Mackell, Kelly.)

 

[BillyShoe1721]

I would love to see a breakdown of his EV vs PP scoring

I'll admit right now that it won't look pretty.

 

[Sturminator]

I'll admit right now that it won't look pretty.

So what? Nieuwy's got a stupid amount of playmaking on his wings here. Nieuwendyk on a first line is never going to be a strength, but the construction of the unit makes sense in terms of skillsets.

 

[MadArcand]

Best coach in ATD vs. the worst one, interesting. With the teams otherwise fairly closely matched, could coaching be the difference maker?

 

[nik jr]

thanks again, overpass

I would love to see a breakdown of his EV vs PP scoring.

nhl.com has those numbers since '88, which is coincidentally nieuwendyk's rookie season. when you go to stats and then points, type a different year into the internet address.

you can try seasons before '88, but results are extremely fragmentary, and lack ES/PP/SH. for example, '84 has only 39 players: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....=&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=points


nieuwendyk

Season|Games|ES points|PP points|SH points|total points
'88|75|45|42|5|92
'89|77|52|27|3|82
'90|79|60|35|0|95
'91|79|45|36|4|85
'92|69|37|19|0|56
'93|79|48|27|0|75
'94|64|46|28|1|75
'95|46|35|15|0|50
'96|52|16|16|0|32
'97|66|33|18|0|51
'98|73|40|29|0|69
'99|67|37|18|0|55
'00|48|20|14|0|34
'01|69|32|20|0|52
'02|81|39|19|0|58
'03|80|38|7|0|45
'04|64|29|20|1|50
'06|65|36|20|0|56

nieuwendyk did very well in some seasons. in '95, he was 9th among all players in ES points. in '90, he was 18th.



i also looked at andreychuk, but it misses 4 of his prime seasons.

Season|Games|ES points|PP points|SH points|total points
'88|80|49|29|0|78
'89|56|33|19|0|52
'90|73|43|39|0|82
'91|80|42|27|0|69
'92|80|40|51|0|91
'93|83|45|54|0|99
'94|83|50|44|5|99
'95|48|24|14|0|38
'96|76|26|28|3|57
'97|82|51|9|1|61
'98|75|32|16|0|48
'99|52|20|8|0|28
'00|77|20|16|0|36
'01|74|18|15|0|33
'02|82|18|18|2|38
'03|72|6|28|0|34
'04|82|23|16|0|39
'06|42|4|12|2|18

i think andreychuk's highest finishes in this span were 27th in '88 and '97.


both players had big drops in PP scoring with NJD.

nieuwendyk with NJD: 38-7
andreychuk with NJD (except '96): 103-33



i may as well post for naslund and smith.

naslund
'88: 56-27-0 ----- 14th at ES
'89: 58-26-0 ----- 13th at ES
'90: 31-10-0
'95: 11-11-0

smith
'88: 60-33-0 ---- 6th at ES
'89: 53-30-0 ---- 22nd at ES
'90: 18-8-0
'91: 26-20-0
'92: 25-20-1
'93: 8-4-0

 

[Elvis P]

This is a very interesting match up with both team's best player playing RW. My original plan was to draft Jagr and have a puck possession team. Then I stupidly traded down from 24 to 26, because I wanted Pilote in the 2nd round which I was right about trading up in the second round being necessary to get him. I underestimated Jagr's current value and Nik wisely used my traded pick to swoop Jagr up and rightfully make me look foolish. Then I started planning my Espo, Bentley, and Hooley line.

To Ak Bars Kazan: 24 and 41
To 1893 Montreal AAA: 26 and 39

 

[nik jr]

This is a very interesting match up with both team's best player playing RW. My original plan was to draft Jagr and have a puck possession team. Then I stupidly traded down from 24 to 26, because I wanted Pilote in the 2nd round which I was right about trading up in the second round being necessary to get him. I underestimated Jagr's current value and Nik wisely used my traded pick to swoop Jagr up and rightfully make me look foolish. Then I started planning my Espo, Bentley, and Hooley line.

To Ak Bars Kazan: 24 and 41
To 1893 Montreal AAA: 26 and 39

sorry about that. i did not know you were trying to get jagr.

 

[Elvis P]

sorry about that. i did not know you were trying to get jagr.

No problem. I'm complementing you. You're a stronger GM than I am and built a better, stronger team than I would have anyways. Good luck!

 

[BillyShoe1721]

First Lines

I don't think a comparison of Andreychuk and Kariya requires much in-depth work, Kariya is definitely the stronger offensive player here.

Much like Andreychuk and Kariya doesn't require much comparison, Nieuwendyk and Ratelle doesn't either. Ratelle is the much stronger player here.

Usually when you draft Jaromir Jagr, you're going to have the advantage in terms of offense at RW, considering he's the 3rd best offensive RW of all time. But next to Howe, it's a no go. Howe is the better player, both offensively, defensively, and in terms of physicality.

The first lines are an advantage to Philadelphia. I think Philadelphia's line is better both offensively and defensively. Jagr and Andreychuk are both below average defensively in the ATD, and I'm not big on Ratelle's defensive abilities either. After looking at LOH and Pelletier, the basis of Ratelle's reputation as a good defensive player appears to be based on his work in the Summit Series. It doesn't look there has ever been a comprehensive bio done on hims either. I think this could be a serious problem for my opponent if they get pinned in their own zone against my top 6. This line is going to struggle defensively. They also don't bring much of a physical presence at all. Ratelle wouldn't hurt a fly, Andreychuk was big, but he didn't really use his size much, and Jagr has size as well and uses it, but not at all in a physical way. Jagr is very good at working in the corner and protecting the puck, but this line just doesn't bring any grit on the forecheck or cycle at all. I think against a physical group like my defensemen, it could limit their effectiveness. Since Jagr is obviously the focal point of this line, you don't necessarily need a guy that will forecheck balls to the wall considering Jagr's abilities in protecting the puck and carrying it into the zone, but if we take away that option for Jagr by pressuring him in the neutral zone, and force Kazan to play more of a dump and chase game, I honestly don't think this personnel could do it.

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Second Lines

Stasiuk and Moore play a pretty similar style. They played around the same time frame as well. But, Moore basically does everything Stasiuk does, but at a much higher level. Moore is definitely the better player offensively, defensively, and in terms of physicality as well. Stasiuk has just two years of 70% or more production versus 2nd place(70 and 85). And he didn't really have anything relevant in terms of offensive ability until he was put on the Uke Line with Bucyk and Horvath.

Primeau and Modano is our first actually close comparison. Offensively, Modano gets the edge in terms of longevity, and Primeau gets the edge in terms of peak value. Primeau has two finishes of 100%, whereas Modano's highest is 86. Era definitely needs to be taken into consideration though, as this comparison favors Primeau. Modano's career adjusted PPG is .939 over 1,499 games, and Primeau's(when adjusted for games) is 1.125 over 544 games. Despite Primeau's advantage in peak offense, Modano is likely the better overall offensive player. Defensively, both are very strong players. I think Primeau might have a small advantage in this area because he was known as possibly the best defensive player of his era, whereas Modano was just a strong two-way player. Overall, these guys are both close as players. I'll give a small edge to Modano because I think the difference in offensive is a bit larger than the difference in defense.

I think Palffy is a guy that gets underrated in the ATD because of some of his injury issues, and that he played for teams that were consistently in the dumpster of the NHL. I think he deserve to move up from where he's usually taken. But, he's no Babe Dye. 6x top 2 in Goals pre-consolidation(one 2nd place was post-consolidaton) is not something Palffy can compare to. Both of these guys are basically pure offense. And at offense, Dye does it better.

Philadelphia has the advantage in 2nd lines. The difference in offense on the wings compared to Kazan's advantage offensively at center is what gives Philadelphia the advantage. Philadelphia also probably enjoys a small advantage defensively as well, with the wings basically equaling out and Primeau having an advantage at center.

 

[seventieslord]

After looking at LOH and Pelletier, the basis of Ratelle's reputation as a good defensive player appears to be based on his work in the Summit Series. It doesn't look there has ever been a comprehensive bio done on hims either.

Wrong and wrong.

Ratelle earned selke votes in the NHL as a late 30s player as soon as the award was introduced.

I owned Ratelle in ATD12 so yes there is a comprehensive bio.

I think Primeau might have a small advantage in this area because he was known as possibly the best defensive player of his era, whereas Modano was just a strong two-way player.

This sounds like an overselling of Primeau and an underselling of Modano. Check the selke votes, to start with.

 

[overpass]

Don Cherry was very complementary of Ratelle's two-way play in his book.

He wrote that Buffalo pulled Perreault's line off the ice whenever he sent Ratelle on.

 

[seventieslord]

Stasiuk has just two years of 70% or more production versus 2nd place(70 and 85). And he didn't really have anything relevant in terms of offensive ability until he was put on the Uke Line with Bucyk and Horvath.

Moore is obviously better, but don't sell Stasiuk short. You are comparing ES lines, and Stasiuk was a very strong ES scorer (4th, 6th, 6th) who just didn't get a lot of PP time, so his overall percentage scores will be deceptive. (Moore's best ES finishes are 1st, 4th, and 12th, just to compare).

 

[BillyShoe1721]

Wrong and wrong.

Ratelle earned selke votes in the NHL as a late 30s player as soon as the award was introduced.

I owned Ratelle in ATD12 so yes there is a comprehensive bio.

I didn't see a bio in the Master Thread, but after searching I found it. Here's the link so it can be added:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=21603681&postcount=590

The only extra thing about Ratelle's defensive play in there is that "Each of them had over 20 goals and each of them could check."

Searching through the awards thread, it looks like he received a 14th place finish with 5 voting points, and an 11th place finish with 6 voting points. It's definitely evidence of good defensive play, I'll give him that. But, is Ratelle good enough defensively as a center to make up for the 2 liabilities at wing so you would be confident having this line facing Howe/Kariya or Moore/Dye? I don't think so.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Did Billy actually call Primeau "possibly the best defensive player of his era?"

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Moore is obviously better, but don't sell Stasiuk short. You are comparing ES lines, and Stasiuk was a very strong ES scorer (4th, 6th, 6th) who just didn't get a lot of PP time, so his overall percentage scores will be deceptive. (Moore's best ES finishes are 1st, 4th, and 12th, just to compare).

How long do the records for even strength scoring go back? That seems awfully low for Moore.

Keep in mind that ES scoring is just a rough guide, you can't assume that players who played first PP duties received the same ES ice time as non-PP guys, especially back when the first PP played the whole PP.. Every player who did not see big PP minutes is going to see his ES scoring inflated somewhat. Guess who never sees the first ES shift after a PP?

 

[seventieslord]

I didn't see a bio in the Master Thread, but after searching I found it. Here's the link so it can be added:

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=21603681&postcount=590

The only extra thing about Ratelle's defensive play in there is that "Each of them had over 20 goals and each of them could check."

Searching through the awards thread, it looks like he received a 14th place finish with 5 voting points, and an 11th place finish with 6 voting points. It's definitely evidence of good defensive play, I'll give him that. But, is Ratelle good enough defensively as a center to make up for the 2 liabilities at wing so you would be confident having this line facing Howe/Kariya or Moore/Dye? I don't think so.

Jagr has the puck way too often to be a liability. Even if his defensive willingness/ability are low, his puck possession means his defensive impact would be more profound than a guy like, say, Nieuwendyk.

I mean, it's not like Ratelle's huge edge on Nieuwendyk makes up the gaps on the wings here; you should have the superior first line but you seem reluctant to give any credit whatsoever.

 

[seventieslord]

How long do the records for even strength scoring go back? That seems awfully low for Moore.

his first season, 1952 (33 pts in 33 games) is not included. The rest is.

He has 4 more years in 13th-20th in ESP.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Dave Andreychuk was a good defensive player in the second half of his career, but he was past his scoring prime by then. I'm sure GMs all have different ways of thinking about how to reconcile the two halves of his career