Bob Cole Division Semifinals: (2) Guelph Platers vs. (3) Kingdom of Bohemia

[Hawkey Town 18]

Guelph Platers
1986 Memorial Cup Champions

Home Rink: Guelph Memorial Gardens (1948)
GM: BraveCanadian

Coaches: Pete Green, Ken Hitchcock
Captain: Jarome Iginla
Alternates: Johnny Gottselig, Duncan Keith

Luc Robitaille - Frank Nighbor - Jarome Iginla
Harry Watson-Mickey Mackay-Zigmund Palffy
Johnny Gottselig-Anze Kopitar-Gordie Drillion
Zach Parise-Fred Stanfield-Bruce MacGregor

Duncan Keith-Chris Chelios
Carl Brewer-Art Duncan
Gennady Tsygankov-Rob Ramage

Bernie Parent
Miikka Kiprusoff


Reserves

Troy Murray, Robyn Regehr, Ray Whitney

Powerplay:
PP1: Luc Robitaille-Mickey Mackay-Gordie Drillion-Fred Stanfield-Art Duncan
PP2: Zigmund Palffy-Frank Nighbor-Jarome Iginla-Duncan Keith-Chris Chelios

Penalty Kill:
PK1: Frank Nighbor-Johnny Gottselig-Duncan Keith-Chris Chelios
PK2: Bruce MacGregor-Anze Kopitar-Carl Brewer-Rob Ramage


vs.


The Kingdom Of Bohemia

Coach: Bob Johnson
Captain: Valeri Vasiliev
Alternates: Lanny McDonald, Art Ross

Alexander Yakushev - Elmer Lach - Guy Lafleur
Paul Kariya - Joe Primeau - Lanny McDonald
Nick Metz - Phil Watson - Claude Provost
Gaye Stewart - Vladimir Shadrin - Jack Darragh

Art Ross - Valeri Vasiliev
Babe Siebert - Red Horner
Gary Bergman - Jiri Bubla

Jacques Plante
Percy Leseur

Spares: Harry Westwick, Alex Tanguay, Barney Stanley, Vasili Pervukhin

PP1:
Alexander Yakushev - Elmer Lach - Guy Lafleur
Art Ross - Paul Kariya

PP2:
Gaye Stewart - Joe Primeau - Lanny McDonald
Babe Siebert - Jiri Bubla

PK1:
Nick Metz - Vladimir Shadrin
Babe Siebert - Valeri Vasiliev

PK2:
Joe Primeau - Claude Provost
Gary Bergman - Red Horner

PK3:
Elmer Lach - Phil Watson
​

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[BraveCanadian]

Looks like a good matchup there.. offense vs defense..

At first glance:

Coaching

I have to say I love the fit of Bob Johnson with a free spirit such as Guy Lafleur. However, Johnson's record is less than his reputation at the NHL level, and his teams were generally mediocre/bad defensively. As a fan, I liked how he tended to emphasize creativity.. he was a real players coach, of course.

IMO, that sort of team coming up against a team setup like ours with coaches like Green and Hitch running the X's and O's has to be a solid advantage for us.


1st Lines

The top peak offensive player in the series is Guy Lafleur, no question. He is the Kingdom of Bohemia's building block And I like Yakushev with Lach and Lafleur because I think that line would be a bit playmaker heavy otherwise.

In contrast, Nighbor's abilities are what set our team philosophy in motion -- dominating the middle of the ice and transition with our two-way centermen and strong top 4.

Leaving Nighbor and Yakushev aside for now (since we don't have VsX for them), I think you may be surprised at how the offense stacks up between these two first lines considering the different team philosophies:

Goals:

Name|VsX-7 Goals|Team
Lafleur|47.2|Kingdom
Iginla|46.5|Guelph
Robitaille|44.7|Kingdom
Lach|34|Guelph

Points:

Name|VsX-7 Points|Team
Lafleur|104.5|Kingdom
Iginla|86.7|Guelph
Lach|86.1|Kingdom
Robitaille|84.2|Guelph

If you stretch the modern players out to 10 years you see Lafleur falling off rapidly. He is always a case of deciding how much weight you give prime versus career. Lach in his era isn't really applicable if we're being fair.

Goals:

Name|VsX-10 Goals|Team
Iginla|43.1|Guelph
Robitaille|42.7|Guelph
Lafleur|41|Kingdom
Lach|N/A(30.6)|Kingdom

Points:

Name|VsX-10 Points|Team
Lafleur|91|Kingdom
Iginla|81.5|Guelph
Robitaille|80.9|Guelph
Lach|N/A (79.2)|Kingdom

I won't get into Yakushev and Nighbor too much except to say that, while I like Yakushev as some size (and scoring) to go with Lach and Lafleur, he isn't going to make a big difference here in that aspect (and maybe less) vs. his counterpart on our line, Iginla.

And while Lach is a good defensively, Nighbor is obviously better in that aspect. I don't know how they would rank against one another as playmakers but as I showed above, Nighbor has two top-notch guns to load, as both Robitaille and Iginla are competitive even with peak Lafleur as goal scorers by VsX.

From the centers project:
Nighbor #8
Lach #26

At 26 teams that puts Lach in the very low end of #1 centers here going by that ranking.


Yakushev gives his line a net presence and was a goal scorer too, but I'm not up to date on the latest for comparing his numbers with the NHL.

I do know that from the top wingers project we have:

Lafleur #5
Iginla #24
Robitaille #36
Yakushev #48

In a 26 team league that puts Yakushev at the bottom end of the first line (~52 of them) wingers in the league.

Hopefully someone more knowledgeable will chime in with some opinions on these lines. I think they are relying on Lafleur very heavily here.


More to come later, I am out of time.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Looks like a good matchup there.. offense vs defense..

Absolutely, let's go!

I have to say I love the fit of Bob Johnson with a free spirit such as Guy Lafleur. However, Johnson's record is less than his reputation at the NHL level, and his teams were generally mediocre/bad defensively. As a fan, I liked how he tended to emphasize creativity.. he was a real players coach, of course.

IMO, that sort of team coming up against a team setup like ours with coaches like Green and Hitch running the X's and O's has to be a solid advantage for us.

To some degree you're right, but it is easier to attribute a locked-down defensive team to good coaching than a team like mine.
Also, Badger Bob really never had a goalie like Plante plugging the dam. There's always a certain license to play fast and loose when you have that kind of insurance.
So, to the extent that voters are going to rank the coaches and base part of their decision on that (which is not nothing), Guelph has that. But it's pretty clear that both teams' coaches will have their teams play to their strengths.

The top peak offensive player in the series is Guy Lafleur, no question. He is the Kingdom of Bohemia's building block ... In contrast, Nighbor's abilities are what set our team philosophy in motion -- dominating the middle of the ice and transition with our two-way centermen and strong top 4.

Good point. I think both teams did a good job of picking a team identity from round 1 and executing it at every step.
But this bring me to one place where I think I have an advantage: I've set my 3 scoring lines up with a centre who'll be the defensive conscience of their lines, and to some degree, even play like midfielders at times, and I don't think stopping them is the best use of Nighbor, McKay, and Kopitar. Don't get me wrong, I think all of them can and will perform well - but matching your best against my best will mean certain adjustments have to be made.

Leaving Nighbor and Yakushev aside for now (since we don't have VsX for them), I think you may be surprised at how the offense stacks up between these two first lines considering the different team philosophies:

Not surprised, really. That's more a function of moving my top secondary offensive threat, Paul Kariya, to the second line. Obviously, a Kariya - Lach - Lafleur line would suffer in terms of size and softness, and Yakushev fills a very specific role while still being first-line-caliber (as you noted).
My first line aims to score goals and attract defensive attention away from my other, also quite potent scoring threats, while yours is a full-on attempt to tilt the ice whenever they're on. Is this a fair assessment?

I won't get into Yakushev and Nighbor too much except to say that, while I like Yakushev as some size (and scoring) to go with Lach and Lafleur, he isn't going to make a big difference here in that aspect (and maybe less) vs. his counterpart on our line, Iginla.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you here, but I assumed Iginla's role involved a lot of battling in the corners, especially with Robitaille available to score from the slot. Not that Iginla won't get his rebounds and tip-in goals, but if anything, I'd say the two lines are lead by a shifty playmaker, (Lafleur/Nighbor), with the second best player being well-rounded and hard to play against (Lach/Iginla), and the third wheel being a trigger man (Yakushev/Robitaille). Not that any of that's important. Just a stray thought that entered my mind.

Hopefully someone more knowledgeable will chime in with some opinions on these lines. I think they are relying on Lafleur very heavily here.

Eh, no more than most ATD teams that drafted a F, G and D with their first 3 picks. Such is life in a snake draft.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Try to cram some in here since I just haven't had the time:

2nd lines

Fair to say that by moving Kariya down a line you have the best offensive player on the second lines as well. (and a good thing you did too because as you mentioned your first would be very soft otherwise)

Kariya clocks in at 84.9 in 7 year VsX vs. 80.1 for Palffy.

Again, we have the better all around center in MacKay if we go by the HOH Centers project: MacKay was 52nd vs. Primeau who was up for voting in the last round but didn't rank.. this plays well into our team's desire to have two-way strength down the middle.

MacKay fits the formula for our team this year very well. Was really pleased to find that he influenced and played like Nighbor!

Watson is a worse version of MacDonald offensively but otherwise they are similar in intangibles and in similar roles here.

Palffy and Kariya don't add much besides offense.

Kingdom has an offensive advantage on both wings but we have the better center.


3rd lines

Here is where we begin to make up the offensive difference while continuing our team philosophy of strong two-way play from our centers. Meanwhile Kingdom of Bohemia shifts to having a more shutdown oriented 3rd line.

Spreading our offense through our lineup also helps us make a shutdown line like theirs less effective.

Drillon is by far the best offensive player on these lines with a 7 year VsX for goals of 46.9 (which is as good as the first liners in this series) and a 7 year VsX for points of 86.7.. which again would be first liner material offensively. The best winger offensively on Kingdom's 3rd line is Provost with 66.4. This is a bigger gap than even Lafleur has looking at primes only with our modern players.

To limit the downside of Drillon's lack of defensive effort, we have him shifted to a 3rd line that will play more than most 3rd lines in the league. Here he can avoid the big matchups and be put in more offensive zone starts etc., and being paired with a strong two-way center and playmaker like Kopitar suits him perfectly.

At 7 years, Kopitar comes in with 76.9 VsX while Phil Watson is 76.7.

Watson is predominantly a playmaker, and has no one to pass to here.

Nick Metz is mostly a non-factor offensively, while Gottselig has a 7 year VsX of 74.8.

These lines obviously have different purposes but we're better at center, and vastly better offensively on both wings.


Going to quickly go over the defense etc. later

 

[jarek]

At first glance, one glaring problem I see on Bohemia is a lack of sandpaper throughout the lineup. Guelph isn't exactly going to run anyone over either (aside from maybe Chelios), so I'm not sure how this would play out in this respect.

I actually see the starting 5 of Guelph as a wicked answer to the Lafleur line. Keith is exactly the type of defenseman that I think would do well in stopping Lafleur, and that's if Nighbor even allows him to get that far. If Guelph sticks to that matchup (and I do think Green will look for every opportunity to get that matchup), I don't think Bohemia's otherwise solid checking line will be that effective in this series.

Compounding the problem is that I don't see Guelph taking a whole lot of penalties, where Lafleur would be able to do his damage. Plante will basically have to be superman to win this series for Bohemia, and I just don't see it at this time.

Currently I have Guelph in 6. It's just really unfortunate I think that Bohemia, an otherwise quite good team, ran into a team that has more or less a perfect match against their 1st line. If Bohemia had a slightly better 2nd line offensively, that might have been enough to push this one towards Bohemia for me. That being said, I haven't shut the door on a Bohemia win either.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I'm not going to go into 4th lines except to say I'm pretty comfortable with ours having a couple of guys in the 70s for VsX 7 year along with good work ethic. Our fourth line just continues the trend of our whole forward corps.

The real thing I want to point out now is the strength of our team, especially in comparison to the Kingdom of Bohemia.

Our Top 4 is one of the strengths of our team, both from the individual ranking of some of them -- but also from the fit. I'm really happy with my top two pairings this year.

I'm going to rely on the defenseman project a lot for making these arguments short (not necessarily because I think it is written in stone or anything).

#1 defensemen: Chelios vs. Vasiliev

Chelios was ranked the #10 defensemen of all time in the HOH defenseman project. Vasiliev was 25th which puts him near the bottom for #1 defensemen in a 26 team draft if we go strictly by those rankings.

A solid advantage for Guelph.

#2 defensemen: Keith vs. Babe Siebert

I have Keith in the mid-late 20s of all time -- which makes him almost the equal of KoB's #1 defenseman.

Even if you call me biased, I don't see any case for him being worse than Niedermayer at #33. He complements Chelios perfectly in my mind. Babe Siebert was ranked 47th.

A solid advantage for Guelph.

#3 defensemen: Carl Brewer vs. Art Ross

Brewer was ranked #46 -- which makes him equal to KoB's #2.

Art Ross wasn't ranked in the defenseman project or up for voting at the end from what I can see.

A solid advantage for Guelph.

#4 defensemen: Art Duncan vs. Red Horner

Horner tends to go a bit before Duncan so I'll give KoB a little nod here but I don't think it is large.

I also think that Bubla may be a bit of a wildcard on their third pairing in comparison to my own pretty conservative 3rd pairing but our advantage 1-3 on defensemen is huge.


Goaltending

Plante is obviously in everyone's top 5 of all time.

Parent is in the middle of the pack here for starters (actually a little below middle if you go strictly by the HOH list at 17).

This is obviously an advantage for KoB individually, but Parent does have lots of help here with the large advantage we have at center and defense.

Good luck Johnny

 

[Johnny Engine]

Fair to say that by moving Kariya down a line you have the best offensive player on the second lines as well. (and a good thing you did too because as you mentioned your first would be very soft otherwise)

This is true. That, and he pretty much does the exact same thing as Lafleur from the left side at even strength, and there's only one puck. Again, your team will have to adjust to the fact that the best offensive players on both line-to-line matchups, will be coming at you from the wings, and that your best defensive assets are at centre.

Again, we have the better all around center in MacKay if we go by the HOH Centers project: MacKay was 52nd vs. Primeau who was up for voting in the last round but didn't rank.. this plays well into our team's desire to have two-way strength down the middle.

If we're taking the HOH lists at face value, I'm not sure I'd really call McKay at #2 an example of "strength down the middle". Not that your team isn't strong with Nighbor and Kopitar where they are, but the #52 guy in a 26 team league is a guy you plug into your 2nd line last, and make sure he plays your system - much the same as Primeau. McKay's better, but the advantage at wing is bigger.

Watson is a worse version of MacDonald offensively but otherwise they are similar in intangibles and in similar roles here.

That's correct, but I'm going to note that McDonald's speed always comes up in any description of him - definitely more than you see with other power forwards, and I picked him specifically as a complement to Kariya on the rush.

Here is where we begin to make up the offensive difference while continuing our team philosophy of strong two-way play from our centers. Meanwhile Kingdom of Bohemia shifts to having a more shutdown oriented 3rd line.

Spreading our offense through our lineup also helps us make a shutdown line like theirs less effective.

Honestly, I think driving Drillon to distraction is a decent use of my third line. He's your best secondary offensive weapon, and more of a worry to me than anyone in particular on the 2nd line.

Taking only forwards into consideration - to win, Bohemia's first line has to play Guelph's first line as close to a draw as possible, win the second line matchup, shut down Drillon (Metz will be lined up opposite to him), and get some additional offense from Darragh and Stewart (not really sure how to quantify Darragh against your guys, but is Stewart any worse a power forward than Harry Watson?

I'll get to specifics with the defense and goaltending later tonight, but in short, Guelph has the clearly better defense and I have the clearly better goalie. That's not controversial.

 

[seventieslord]

Guelph ultimately conquers the Kingdom of Bohemia, in a hard fought 7 game series.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Happy I could cause some trouble for the Platers.

A while ago, BenchBrawl sent me a PM saying he hoped someone would build a decent Lafleur team that wouldn't get bounced right away. I hope I did you proud, BB. Good luck in the conference finals to Guelph!

 

[BenchBrawl]

Happy I could cause some trouble for the Platers.

A while ago, BenchBrawl sent me a PM saying he hoped someone would build a decent Lafleur team that wouldn't get bounced right away. I hope I did you proud, BB. Good luck in the conference finals to Guelph!

Yes, very good team you've build around Guy Lafleur.In the end only one team can win though.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Happy I could cause some trouble for the Platers.

A while ago, BenchBrawl sent me a PM saying he hoped someone would build a decent Lafleur team that wouldn't get bounced right away. I hope I did you proud, BB. Good luck in the conference finals to Guelph!

Thanks for the reasonable and civil series discussion Johnny