Binnington won't win the Vezina, he might not even be a finalist. Be he should be in the top 5 of voting. He's played lights out this entire season and I can only shudder to think what would have happened if he had struggled like in years past.
If the season ended today, Helly and Demko are my overwhelming picks for the top 2 Vezina votes. Markstrom is in the discussion over Demko, but Demko's 8 extra starts does a lot of heavy lifting for me. Elite numbers in a top 5 workload beats arguably slightly more elite numbers in a normal workload for me. But those are my pretty clearly-defined top 3. All 3 have passed the eye test when I view them in addition to putting up fantastic stats all around.
After them, I think there are a lot of cases to be made for rounding out the top 5.
Swayman is amazing when he's in net. After the top 3, I don't think anyone else has so consistently looked so good. But he and Ullmark are at a damn near 50/50 split and I have a hard time voting for a guy who is going to fall noticeably short of 50 starts. I think I'd vote for Binner over him right now based on workload, but I can't fault someone for voting the other way and a .920 in today's NHL is extremely hard to argue against.
Bobrovsky is having a vintage Bob season to follow up his great playoff run. I still don't think he's worth that contract, but he's playing like one of the better goalies in the league and doing it on a team that has had a lot of defensive injuries to battle. 4th most starts in the league too. I'd vote for Bob ahead of Binner right now.
Shesterkin has had a surprising number of real clunkers this year. His quality start rate is still good, but when he has been off he has been way off. He's had 7 games where he has put up a SV% of .800 or worse in just 39 starts. To compare, Binner has 4 such blow ups over 40 starts. But he has caught fire lately and when he's good he is great. He's gotten his SV% and 'above expected' numbers a touch past Binner's. I'd vote Binner ahead of Shesterkin today, but Shesterkin would win my vote if he closes the season the way he's been playing for the last 6 weeks or so.
Jarry is right in the conversation with Binner. Slightly better raw numbers, slightly worse 'vs expected' numbers. He bails out a mediocre team a lot and the workload is basically even (he's started 2 fewer games than Binner but the Pens have played 3 fewer games than us). I think that the Blues are a worse team than the Pens and would vote for Binner. But it wouldn't be an injustice for people to go with Jarry instead.
The Sabres are probably too far out for people to care about what UPL is doing, but he's been fantastic since winning the #1 job outright a couple months into the year. He's got a real shot at putting up a .915 over 50 starts this season on a team known for awful defensive play. His 'vs expected' numbes are right around Binner's.
Lyon and Daccord are making nice "unexpected savior" runs, but Daccord appears to be yielding net down the stretch and I think Lyon came in too late in the year to finish ahead of Binner. But I could see Lyon beating out Binner for some votes if he starts 18 of their last 23 games, slightly improves his SV% and the Wings make the playoffs by a comfortable margin. Sorokin may get votes on reputation and his raw SV%, but I can't justify making a real argument to put him ahead of Binner.
I think there are reasonable arguments for Binner to finish as low as 9th in Vezina voting if the season suddenly ended right now. I think I'd have him 5th. Realistically, I expect that he will fall a bit by the end of the year. Shesterkin appears to be ramping up, Lyon has a chance to bolster his case by getting the Wings back to the playoffs, and it is becoming clear that we're about done playing meaningful games. I won't be surprised if Hofer picks up an extra couple starts to decrease Binner's workload edge and/or for us to have a couple extra nights where we fully hang him out to dry.
I'll be surprised if he finishes top 5 in Vezina voting and I don't know that it will be unfair. But he's has been very good this year.