Do you think we can realistically get Binny the 28 games total we need to keep him an RFA? Its only one of his games played that doesn't qualify, correct? So he needs 18 more games, out of 32, with 8 sets of back-to-back. Let's say we split all the remaining back-to-backs. Binnington needs 10 of of the 16 remaining games? Seems possible to me, but I am afraid they will go back to Allen for multiple games at some point if he starts playing ok. Which stinks, because Allen isn't the answer and having him play doesn't help us in the long-run. Getting Binnington to RFA would help lower his contract for us. If he carries a .920+ over 20-25 starts, I think he'd get an offers from someone else as a back-up in UFA.
I'm not the least bit concerned about him hitting UFA. Whether he hits the GP threshold or not, the Blues will sign him to a very affordable contract if we think he is an NHL caliber goalie moving forward. I've said it before in other threads, but I think people are dramatically overestimating the offers he will have if his resume is 25ish NHL starts, no playoff experience and losing the job to Allen at any point down the stretch. Andrew Hammond got 3 years a $1.35 mil AAV as a pending UFA after his miracle run.
The goaltending UFA market is comically over-saturated with backup or 1B options. Teams will not be knocking down the door of a 26 year old with fewer than 30 NHL games of experience. The KHL, AHL and other pro leagues are littered with guys who looked great for a couple months in the NHL and then fizzled (see Andrew Hammond). The security of a 1 way contract worth $2.5-3.5 mil (depending on whether it is 2 or 3 years) will be enough for him to sign with the Blues weeks before hitting free agency and taking the risk that the music stops and he doesn't have a 1 way contract during the summer. His career earnings by the end of the year will still be significantly under $1 mil. A 2 year, 1 way deal for $1.25 AAV would be a life changing amount of money for him and there is zero guarantee he gets such a contract in July as a UFA. He he gives the job back to Allen, his best case scenario in UFA would be slightly more money than that, with the chance that he gets a 2 way deal with a high AHL salary (but still drastically less than a 1 way contract would pay him in the AHL).
With all that said, I think he'll play the required games. If he doesn't, it means that his play drops off fairly substantially. Craig Berube is coaching to try and get a permanent head coaching job (either here or to interview elsewhere). The team is in a playoff hunt and ownership would absolutely prefer to make the playoffs. Binny has clearly earned Berube's trust and will continue getting the large majority of starts until he starts playing poorly.
Edit: recent UFA signing comparables
Copley: 3 years, $1.1 mil AAV
Koskinen: 3 years, $4.5 mil AAV
DeSmith: 3 years, $1.25 mil AAV
Desmith had a .924 through 24 GP this year when he signed his deal after posting a .921 through 14 games last year. Probably the best comparable, albiet with a slightly larger sample size than we're talking about. Copley has worse numbers through this year, although most people who watch the Caps recognize that they have been a dumpster fire defensively for the last month or so. He had a .916 before his last 3 starts (which was the stretch of games where the Caps allowed 4+ goals in 5 of 6 games, for a total of 34 goals against in 6 games. He and Holtby both put up atrocious numbers in that stretch, which tells me it was mostly defense. The huge hit in SV% demonstrates how a couple bad nights can tank SV% when the sample size is as small as he and Binny have right now.
Koskinen is the obvious outlier, but he is also the least comparable in terms of situation. He isn't a mid-20s rookie who toiled in the AHL. He's 30, won 2 championships in the KHL before coming over to North America and won KHL goalie of the year a few years ago. His NHL resume is limited, but his pro career is drastically more notable than Binny, Copley or DeSmith. I think it was a brutal contract by the Oilers, but he absolutely has a much better resume than the other goalies we're talking about.
