Blues 2024 Off-Season Trade Proposals Thread

[BlueDream]

It's not. PLD is owed 28M if bought out. From my original POV assuming the buyout dollars were the same (14M Krug over 6 years vs. 15.8M PLD over 14 years), I could see the merits of it assuming you got good surplus value for taking on that disaster contract. No way in hell Blues would pay someone 28M to not play for us though, even if spread over a much longer time period.

Even if Dubois’ buyout dollars were the same as Krug or even less, there’s no way the Blues would pay someone to not play for them for 14 years.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Even if Dubois’ buyout dollars were the same as Krug or even less, there’s no way the Blues would pay someone to not play for them for 14 years.

Agree to disagree.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Agree to disagree.

The Blues have never used a buyout in Armstrong’s tenure. Not being sarcastic but genuinely curious why you think that would change for this?

 

[WeWentBlues]

The Blues have never used a buyout in Armstrong’s tenure. Not being sarcastic but genuinely curious why you think that would change for this?

I've laid out the reasons that are no longer worth discussing since the buyout is 28M vs. 16M.

-We already tried to move Krug last offseason.
-If Blues do nothing, the ownership group shells out 21M over the next three seasons.
-If the Blues buyout Krug, its 14M spread over 6 years in real dollars. No real incentive to buyout Krug as the buyout does not do anything for us.
-In this hypothetical scenario that I proposed, the Blues offload Krug and dont pay him 21M over 3 years or 14M over 6 years. They instead trade for Dubois and buy him out, paying 1M a year for 14 years to not pay 21M over 3 years, and getting a 1st round pick++ in the process. Seems like a move that a savvy GM and ownership group would make if the buyout dollars were 16M and not 28M.

Don't see the point in continuing to debate this.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I'd rather have Krug stinking up the joint for the next 3 years at 6.5 mil while Theo, Buchinger, Burns, and Loof progress in the minors until they are ready, than have PLD who seems to actively hate hockey and working everywhere he goes as our highest paid player for the Next 7 years and I wouldn't touch a buyout for that hell contract.

 

[Brian39]

The Blues have never used a buyout in Armstrong’s tenure. Not being sarcastic but genuinely curious why you think that would change for this?

The Blues have also never been offered (that we know of) multiple high-value assets to (essentially) buyout a contract for another team. The Blues never paid a big signing bonus until they were willing to pay a large day 1 bonus to Ryan O'Reilly in order to land him. The Blues had never missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons in Amry's tenure as GM, but here we are.

As @WeWentBlues said, the question regarding PLD is almost certainly moot because the bonus money makes a buyout of him cost a hell of a lot more than the money still owed to Krug.

But as a concept, new circumstances often cause people to do things that they haven't done before. A 1C like ROR becoming available (if you paid a large signing bonus) was enough to make Army do something he hadn't done before. If Krug has become otherwise unmovable, but could be swapped for different dead money (and a nice haul of assets) then I could see him (and ownership) being willing to do that and then use the buyout to spread the dead money out over a longer period of time.

There aren't many buyout-candidates where you could pay roughly the same real dollars as we're paying Krug on a buyout that would also see their current team desperate enough to give away good assets to move them. Ultimately, this almost certainly won't happen because there just won't be a situation where it could become worth our while.

But this ownership group has been willing to spend real dollars in order to make the on-ice product better, which includes quickly raising funds to pay a sudden bonus and structuring contracts to spend way more real dollars than cap dollars. I don't think it is crazy that they could understand that there are situations where you can drastically improve your NHL outlook via buyout.

 

[joe galiba]

I'd rather have Krug stinking up the joint for the next 3 years at 6.5 mil while Theo, Buchinger, Burns, and Loof progress in the minors until they are ready, than have PLD who seems to actively hate hockey and working everywhere he goes as our highest paid player for the Next 7 years and I wouldn't touch a buyout for that hell contract.

PLD reminds me of Dan Quinn, immense talent, but seems to have lost interest in hockey

 

[Brian39]

The fact is, no one knows if Marner is a 95+ point player away from a dude scoring 50+ goals a year, every year. Can Marner generate his own offense? would he benefit Thomas? I don't think Marner is a good fit for this team or this market.

Marner has been a 104 point pace guy playing with Matthews over two-thirds of the time in the last 3 years. And he has been an elite producer away from Matthews in the past.

In 2018/19 Marner led the Leafs with 94 points, which was 11th in the NHL in a league with noticeably less scoring than today. 70 of those points came at even strength, which was 6th in the NHL. He played just 87 minutes at 5 on 5 with Matthews that year and instead played on a line with Tavares.

Tavares scored 47 goals that year, which is 10 more than he's ever scored in the NHL. 37 of those goals were at even strength, which led the league and was 11 more than he's ever scored in his career. Keefe took over the following year and put Marner with Matthews more often (about two thirds of the time). Tavares scored at a 34 goal pace in his 2nd year with the Leafs once he no longer got Marner as his full-time winger.

Tavares was a hell of a player when the Leafs signed him, but he was absolutely not a 50 goal guy. He had never hit 40. He had his career year playing with Marner and then promptly returned to being the mid-30 goal guy he had always been once he no longer got to play with Marner full-time.

If you want to nitpick, then he has "only" proven to be a 94 point guy playing on a different line than Matthews, but that is still pretty damn good especially when you look at the inflation of scoring in recent years. I think he has very much shown that he can be a 95+ point guy without playing with an elite goal scorer.

All that said, in a fantasy world where getting (and extending) Marner was realistic, my intention would not be to pair him with Thomas long-term. That would very likely be his line mate early on, but I'd have him playing with Dvorsky as much as possible the instant Dvorsky is ready to start playing top 6 minutes. Splitting up Thomas and Marner would give us a two-way elite playmaker on each of our top two lines.

 

[Xerloris]

Marner has been a 104 point pace guy playing with Matthews over two-thirds of the time in the last 3 years. And he has been an elite producer away from Matthews in the past.

In 2018/19 Marner led the Leafs with 94 points, which was 11th in the NHL in a league with noticeably less scoring than today. 70 of those points came at even strength, which was 6th in the NHL. He played just 87 minutes at 5 on 5 with Matthews that year and instead played on a line with Tavares.

Tavares scored 47 goals that year, which is 10 more than he's ever scored in the NHL. 37 of those goals were at even strength, which led the league and was 11 more than he's ever scored in his career. Keefe took over the following year and put Marner with Matthews more often (about two thirds of the time). Tavares scored at a 34 goal pace in his 2nd year with the Leafs once he no longer got Marner as his full-time winger.

Tavares was a hell of a player when the Leafs signed him, but he was absolutely not a 50 goal guy. He had never hit 40. He had his career year playing with Marner and then promptly returned to being the mid-30 goal guy he had always been once he no longer got to play with Marner full-time.

If you want to nitpick, then he has "only" proven to be a 94 point guy playing on a different line than Matthews, but that is still pretty damn good especially when you look at the inflation of scoring in recent years. I think he has very much shown that he can be a 95+ point guy without playing with an elite goal scorer.

All that said, in a fantasy world where getting (and extending) Marner was realistic, my intention would not be to pair him with Thomas long-term. That would very likely be his line mate early on, but I'd have him playing with Dvorsky as much as possible the instant Dvorsky is ready to start playing top 6 minutes. Splitting up Thomas and Marner would give us a two-way elite playmaker on each of our top two lines.

I still don't think his personality would go well with this market or team. I mean flat out saying you love Toronto because you're treated like a god kind of rubs a lot of people the wrong way. He's a prima-donna that I think we would be better off avoiding. Talent aside, this is about personality.

 

[Brockon]

The fact is, no one knows if Marner is a 95+ point player away from a dude scoring 50+ goals a year, every year. Can Marner generate his own offense? would he benefit Thomas? I don't think Marner is a good fit for this team or this market.

Marner scoring while Matthews absent from lineup… I was bored, I dug through and cross referenced game logs for their careers to get the answer. (note I rearranged the scores to be consistent TOR-Opponent, not realizing that it listed home/away and that's led to a few instances where Marner scored in a game I listed as Toronto being shutout - I think I caught those, but you can look up the discrepancies if they are jarring. By the time I noticed I said f*** it, I'm not restarting to fix this - I've developed a f***ing headache by over exerting myself with the post-concussion shit already).

Spoiler... Marner's still pretty productive when Matthews isn't playing. In the 56 regular season games Matthews has missed over the last 8 seasons Marner has scored 16-50-66p in 54gp. That's a 100p scoring pace over an 82 game schedule, I think Marner is still probably an 80-100p player on a playoff team without a 50+ goal scorer.

2016-17 Matthews plays all 82 games

2017-18 Matthews misses 20 games
Marner 7-17-24p in those games

Mar 20 3-4 L vs TBL, 0-1-1
Mar 17 4-0 W vs MTL, 0-1-1
Mar 15 2-5 L vs BUF, 0-1-1
Mar 14 6-5 W vs DAL, 0-2-2
Mar 10 5-2 W vs PIT, 1-1-2
Mar 5 3-5 L vs BUF, 1-0-1
Mar 3 2-5 L vs WSH, 0p
Feb 27 2-3 L vs FLA, 0p
Feb 26 3-4 L vs TBL, 1-1-2
Feb 24 4-3 W vs BOS, 1-3-4

Dec 20 2-4 L vs CBJ, 1-0-1
Dec 19 8-1 W vs CAR, 1-3-4
Dec 15 1-3 L vs DET, 0p
Dec 14 0-2 L vs MIN, 0p
Dec 12 2-4 L vs PHI, 0-1-1
Dec 10 1-0 vs EDM, 0p

Nov 16 1-0 W vs NJD, 0p
Nov 11 1-4 L vs BOS, 1-1-2
Nov 10 3-2 W vs BOS, 0-2-2
Nov 8 4-2 W vs MIN, 0p

18-19 Matthews misses 14 games
Marner 2-16-18p in those games

Nov 26 4-2 W vs BOS, 0-3-3
Nov 24 6-0 W vs PHI, 0-2-2
Nov 23 2-4 L vs CBJ, 0p
Nov 21 2-5 L vs CAR, 0p
Nov 19 4-2 W vs CBJ, 0-2-2
Nov 16 1-2 L vs ANA, 0-1-1
Nov 15 3-5 L vs SJS, 1-2-3
Nov 13 1-3 L vs LAK, 0-2-2
Nov 10 1-5 L vs BOS, 0-1-1
Nov 9 6-1 W vs NJD, 0p
Nov 6 3-1 W vs VGK, 1-0-1
Nov 3 5-0 W vs PIT, 0-2-2
Nov 1 1-2 L vs DAL, 0p
Oct 29 1-3 L vs CGY, 0-1-1

19-20 Matthews missed 0 games

20-21 Matthews missed 4 games
Marner 2-4-6p

*Canadian division 56 game season.
Apr 15 2-5 L vs WPG, 0-1-1
Mar 1 4-0 W vs EDM, 0-1-1
Feb 27 4-0 W vs EDM,1-1-2
Jan 22 4-2 W vs EDM, 1-1-2

21-22 Mathews missed 9 games
Marner 2-6-8 in 8gp.

Apr 29 5-2 W vs BOS, Marner out.
Apr 21 1-8 L vs TBL, 0p
Apr 19 5-2 W vs PHI, 0-1-1
Apr 17 4-2 W vs NYI, 1-0-1
Mar 17 3-2 W vs CAR, 1-0-1
Mar 15 4-0 W vs DAL, 0-2-2
Oct 16 3-1 W vs OTT, 0p
Oct 14 2-3 L vs OTT, 0p
Oct 13 2-1 W vs MTL, 0-1-1

22-23 Matthews missed 8 games
Marner 2-6-8 7gp

April 11 3-4 L vs TBL, Marner out.
Feb 11 3-4 L vs CBJ, 0-2-2
Feb 10 3-0 W vs CBJ, 0-2-2
Feb 1 2-5 L vs BOS, 1-0-1
Jan 29 5-1 W vs WSH, 0-1-1
Jan 27 2-6 L vs OTT, 0-1-1
Jan 12 2-1 W vs NSH, 0p
Jan 11 1-4 L vs DET, 1-0-1

23-24. Matthews missed 1 game
Dec 16 7-0 W vs PIT, Marner 1-1-2p

 

[Brockon]

Marner has been a 104 point pace guy playing with Matthews over two-thirds of the time in the last 3 years. And he has been an elite producer away from Matthews in the past.

In 2018/19 Marner led the Leafs with 94 points, which was 11th in the NHL in a league with noticeably less scoring than today. 70 of those points came at even strength, which was 6th in the NHL. He played just 87 minutes at 5 on 5 with Matthews that year and instead played on a line with Tavares.

Tavares scored 47 goals that year, which is 10 more than he's ever scored in the NHL. 37 of those goals were at even strength, which led the league and was 11 more than he's ever scored in his career. Keefe took over the following year and put Marner with Matthews more often (about two thirds of the time). Tavares scored at a 34 goal pace in his 2nd year with the Leafs once he no longer got Marner as his full-time winger.

Tavares was a hell of a player when the Leafs signed him, but he was absolutely not a 50 goal guy. He had never hit 40. He had his career year playing with Marner and then promptly returned to being the mid-30 goal guy he had always been once he no longer got to play with Marner full-time.

If you want to nitpick, then he has "only" proven to be a 94 point guy playing on a different line than Matthews, but that is still pretty damn good especially when you look at the inflation of scoring in recent years. I think he has very much shown that he can be a 95+ point guy without playing with an elite goal scorer.

All that said, in a fantasy world where getting (and extending) Marner was realistic, my intention would not be to pair him with Thomas long-term. That would very likely be his line mate early on, but I'd have him playing with Dvorsky as much as possible the instant Dvorsky is ready to start playing top 6 minutes. Splitting up Thomas and Marner would give us a two-way elite playmaker on each of our top two lines.

See my above post where I painstakingly combed through game logs (and listed the scores) for Marner's scoring while Matthews missed games over the past 8 seasons.

In the 56 regular season games Matthews has missed over the last 8 seasons Marner has scored 16-50-66p in 54gp. That's a 100p scoring pace over an 82 game schedule.

 

[Brockon]

I still don't think his personality would go well with this market or team. I mean flat out saying you love Toronto because you're treated like a god kind of rubs a lot of people the wrong way. He's a prima-donna that I think we would be better off avoiding. Talent aside, this is about personality.

I think the contract expectations Marner has would preclude us from ever meeting his contractual demands, even if he had interest in playing here... He's been spoiled by Toronto paying 90%+ of his contract as a signing bonus July 1st.

Historically the Blues don't provide NMC, signing bonuses or top dollar for contracts - Marner has been the beneficiary of all 3 in Toronto.

As for the prima-donna stuff, I'd like to think that if he wasn't in the Toronto media fishbowl and that insane market that Marner wouldn't be as stressed out and react better to adversity. I'd also like to think having a different leadership group around would level that out - we seldomly see hissy fits here, I'd like to think that's partially the veteran leadership we've kept in place that DA hasn't jetissoned despite the HFBlues wanting to trade away a large portion of the older players.

Of course, there's no way to know anything concretely about that - but I don't recall hearing much about Marner antics before this year stretching back to his juniors/WJC time. That could be I have my head in the sand and me not being super on top of media coverage, so please share if you can illustrate something more concrete.

 

[TurgPavs]

I'd be stunned if Marner waived his NMC to come here unless we made a ludicrous extension offer that all of us would hate. With that said, my guess is that Toronto is going to ultimately have to settle for futures and a bad contract if they decide to trade Marner. They can want an established stud D man all they want, but they are going to have next to no leverage.

Marner shouldn't give the Leafs more than a short list of potential destinations and those teams will likely all be teams that are already contending and won't have much (if any) desire to give up a big roster piece.

I really think that they are going to have to choose between extending Marner, keeping him and watching him walk next summer, or giving him up for a package that makes them worse in the short-term (and likely for a while). Trying to sell a guy with a NMC and 1 year left on a big-ticket deal is usually the lowest point you can sell. But it gets even lower when he just had the worst playoff performance of his career and is being singled out as the problem by basically the entire fanbase. Getting anything close to fair value for him is going to be a nightmare, because the vast majority of places that would give fair value won't be on his short list of cities he'd waive for.

Just to add, I would love to see Marner on the Blues. IMO he is getting way to much of the Blame in Toronto right now.

I’m just not sure how far you’ll get in the playoffs with 11m non physical, non 2 way wingers. They just aren’t my type of players.

How was Marner a Selke finalist in 22-23?

 

[Frenzy31]

Just to add, I would love to see Marner on the Blues. IMO he is getting way to much of the Blame in Toronto right now.


How was Marner a Selke finalist in 22-23?

I don't think other fans are saying they don't want him - but maybe a bit more of I don't want him at contract X. 11-12 million per season -

We have had a flat cap for 4+ years. It is sticker shock. 8-9 was high. Compare 8.5 miller to 11.5 million - That is a lot of cap - almost 30% more - is Kyrou 2/3 of the player that Marmer is? And do you really want to bet on that?

He is 27, entering his prime. Has he always been a defensive player or did he grow into it? I haven't followed his career. JK is only a full year younger so it isn't like it is a huge age gap either.

For Marner - this next contract would make him the highest paid player on our team by a wide margin. Is he the guy you want to break the bank for?

 

[TurgPavs]

I don't think other fans are saying they don't want him - but maybe a bit more of I don't want him at contract X. 11-12 million per season -

We have had a flat cap for 4+ years. It is sticker shock. 8-9 was high. Compare 8.5 miller to 11.5 million - That is a lot of cap - almost 30% more - is Kyrou 2/3 of the player that Marmer is? And do you really want to bet on that?

He is 27, entering his prime. Has he always been a defensive player or did he grow into it? I haven't followed his career. JK is only a full year younger so it isn't like it is a huge age gap either.

For Marner - this next contract would make him the highest paid player on our team by a wide margin. Is he the guy you want to break the bank for?

I would absolutely take Marner and extend him.

In my perfect world,
Marner for Kyrou, Krug, and a 2nd (Maybe more if an extension was agreed to before the trade)
1st 2024 3rd in 2025, for W Karlsson and Hague
Sign Perron 1-2 years
Sign Eddy 1-2 years

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I would absolutely take Marner and extend him.

In my perfect world,
Marner for Kyrou, Krug, and a 2nd (Maybe more if an extension was agreed to before the trade)
1st 2024 3rd in 2025, for W Karlsson and Hague
Sign Perron 1-2 years
Sign Eddy 1-2 years

No thank you. No desire to trade our first for Hague and and Karlsson

 

[Xerloris]

No thank you. No desire to trade our first for Hague and and Karlsson

Why? They would be great additions.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Why? They would be great additions.

Sure. But not for our first. If we are trading the 1st it better be for someone that is going to be a long time player in the top 4 of our defense. Not a 31 year old center and a 25 year old LD who has regressed and got regulated to the press box.

 

[mk80]

I think Marner will benefit from getting out from the magnifying glass that he’s under in Toronto.

But I don’t think he’s coming here for various reasons on both his and our end.

 

[Eldon Reid]

I would absolutely take Marner and extend him.

In my perfect world,
Marner for Kyrou, Krug, and a 2nd (Maybe more if an extension was agreed to before the trade)
1st 2024 3rd in 2025, for W Karlsson and Hague
Sign Perron 1-2 years
Sign Eddy 1-2 years

Personally

I wouldn't mind Marner but just not sure what his next deal will be worth.

I wouldn't trade my 1st and 3rd for Karlsson and Hague. Karlsson I would trade for sure because I think he is good stop gap til Dvorsky is ready, but not for 1st. Hague I have lost some interested because his play has dipped, but maybe he can be be a buy low so I wouldn't think he will draw too much in a trade. I think it would be more like a 3rd and lower end prospect or 3rd late pick and low end prospect

Perron I would be fine with.
Edmundson depending on AAV I would be fine with because I think he would work well with Parayko or Faulk.

 

[PocketNines]

I want to live in a world where Kyrou is on Toronto and Berube is coaching them

 

[Ranksu]

Where we dump Krug?

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Where we dump Krug?

Hard to dump him if no one wants him.

 

[Beauterham]

Hard to dump him if no one wants him.

I'm warming up to the idea of retaining 50% of his contract if that makes it so that we can move him if we could get some 'positive value' back. Even if it's just a 4th or something like that.

Buying him out means losing 3.250.000 towards the cap the next three seasons. We're retooling and we're probably not going trying to spend towards the cap anyway. Hell no to buying him out though as it will take 6 years to get him off the books.

 

[sfvega]

Krug will be here another year or two before getting jettisoned. Sucks, but it is what it is. Next off-season he loses full NTC and the following off-season he's going into the final year of his contract. So he's only going to get easier to move from here on out.