BlueBull's HHOF Monitor Corner

[BlueBull]

I'm going to make a thread here to show off my Research of HHOF Monitor.

This stat has plenty of potential and I spend so much time messing around with it, that I want someone to see the Research I've done using this stat.

Hope you find this thread Interesting. It might even change your opinion on who will or won't make the hall of fame!

Cheers,
-BlueBull

Top 16 Modern NHL Defensemen in the by their Monitor (Last 20 Years)

Player Name - Career Length - Position - HHOF Monitor
Erik Karlsson - 2009-2022 - Defenseman - 1258.8
Duncan Keith - 2005-2022 - Defenseman - 1204
Drew Doughty - 2008-2022 - Defenseman - 1126.4
Victor Hedman - 2009-2022 - Defenseman - 1073.6*
Shea Weber - 2005-2021 - Defenseman - 1042.2
Brent Burns - 2003-2022 - Defenseman - 952.6
Roman Josi - 2011-2022 - Defenseman - 845.3**
P.K. Subban - 2009-2022 - Defenseman - 698.5
Mike Green - 2005-2020 - Defenseman - 696.1
John Carlson - 2009-2022 - Defenseman - 659.5
Mark Giordano - 2005-2022 - Defenseman - 656.5
Kris Letang - 2006-2022 - Defenseman - 629.6
Dion Phaneuf - 2005-2019 - Defenseman - 619.4
Ryan Suter - 2005-2022 - Defenseman - 614.2
Alex Pietrangelo - 2008-2022 - Defenseman - 594.5
Cale Makar - 2019-2022 - Defenseman - 560.4***

* Assuming Victor Hedman makes the 2nd All Star Team this year.
** Assuming Roman Josi wins the Norris and is a 1st Team All Star this year.
*** Assuming Cale Makar is the Runner up for the Norris and is a 1st Team All Star this Year.

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Are you using @pnep 's formula (and updating it)? Or are you using your own formula?

 

[BlueBull]

Are you using @pnep 's formula (and updating it)? Or are you using your own formula?

Yes I'm using PNEP's formula mostly. The only thing I added was giving a +10 if the Player made the All-Rookie Team. Other than that, it's the exact same formula.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Did you only assume awards for players this season or did you tack on the whole formula for everyone this year...?

 

[BlueBull]

Did you only assume awards for players this season or did you tack on the whole formula for everyone this year...?

I only assumed the awards for the norris because everyone is 99% sure the Norris vote is going to be (In order) Josi, Makar, Hedman.

I could've assumed Hedman's team would make the final (+25), but that isn't as guarunteed as the Norris Vote.

I mean, we KNOW those 3 are the finalists.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Not to poke a hole, because it's obviously easily solvable...but 99% doesn't represent the order. I personally know people who have given Makar first place votes (at least, that was the hint). Doesn't mean it can't end up like that. But if I were handicapping it. I'd say Makar and Josi would be really close to even money to get it. But regardless, I was just wondering how deep it went...like, did Letang accumulate anything for the season he had? I'm not super familiar with the formula off the top of my head...

Letang being behind, hmmm, most of those six guys ahead of him is a little tough...Petro and Suter behind Phaneuf is a rough one too...but I mean, that's the nature of these kinds of things...

Spitballing with fried-brain Friday: I wonder if there was anything out there for the math guys about weighting award voting based on percentage of vote AND against level of competition. Measure level of competition using our HoH lists maybe? Wouldn't do much for the most recent decade or whatever, but historically...that'd be a little interesting. Like I had just brought about Barrasso's '84 Vezina. His best competition that season was a goal post. But Brodeur/Hasek/Roy/Belfour all fighting against each other for a single trophy at the same time, is way different...I don't know...just thinking out loud...

 

[pnep]

I'm not super familiar with the formula off the top of my head...

"HHOF Monitor" (1917-18/2005-06)

This is new version of my research....

hfboards.mandatory.com

Calculation..

"HHOF Monitor" formula for Goalies =

Adjusted Wins/2 +
Adjusted PO Wins*4 +

Cup - 50 pts (minimum 4 Adj PO Wins) +
Final - 25 pts (minimum 4 Adj PO Wins) +

All Star Games - 5 pts +

Calder - 50 "HHOF Monitor" pts +

1 ALL STAR TEAM - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts (seasons 1917-81); "HHOF Monitor" 75 pts (seasons 1981-06) +
2 ALL STAR TEAM - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts (seasons 1917-81); "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts (seasons 1981-06) +

Vezina - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts (seasons 1917-81); "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts (seasons 1981-06) +
Vezina Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 75 pts (seasons 1917-81); "HHOF Monitor" 125 pts (seasons 1981-06) +

CONN SMYTHE - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +

Hart - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts +
Hart Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts





"HHOF Monitor" formula for LW,C,RW =

Adjusted PTS/2 +
Adjusted PO PTS +

Captainship - "HHOF Monitor" 15 pts per season +

Top 10 in Goals after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 10 pts +
# 1 in Goals, Reg. Season - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +
# 2 in Goals, Reg. Season - "HHOF Monitor" 70 pts +
Top 10 in PTS, Reg. Season - "HHOF Monitor" 10 pts +
# 1 in PTS, Reg. Season - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts +
# 2 in PTS, Reg. Season - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +

Cup - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts (minimum 5 Adj PO GMS) +
Final - "HHOF Monitor" 25 pts (minimum 5 Adj PO GMS) +

All Star Game - "HHOF Monitor" 5 pts +

HART - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts +
HART Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +

BYNG - "HHOF Monitor" 75 pts +

1 ALL STAR TEAM - "HHOF Monitor" 75 pts +
2 ALL STAR TEAM - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts +

CALDER - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts +
CALDER Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 30 pts +

SELKE - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts +
SELKE Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 35 pts +

CONN SMYTHE - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts





"HHOF Monitor" formula for DEF =

Adjusted Games/5 +
Adjusted Pts/10 +
Adjusted PO Games/2 +
Adjusted PO Pts/4 +

Captainship - "HHOF Monitor" 15 pts per season +

Top 10 in Goals after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 10 pts +
# 1 in Goals after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +
# 2 in Goals after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 70 pts +
Top 10 in PTS after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 10 pts +
# 1 in PTS after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts +
# 2 in PTS after Season - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +

Cup - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts (minimum 5 Adj PO GMS) +
Final - "HHOF Monitor" 25 pts (minimum 5 Adj PO GMS) +

All Star Game - "HHOF Monitor" 5 pts +

HART - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts +
HART Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts +

1 ALL STAR TEAM - "HHOF Monitor" 75 pts +
2 ALL STAR TEAM - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts +

CALDER - "HHOF Monitor" 50 pts +
CALDER Runner Up - "HHOF Monitor" 30 pts +

NORRIS - "HHOF Monitor" 150 pts +
NORRIS Runner UP - "HHOF Monitor" 125 pts +

CONN SMYTHE - "HHOF Monitor" 100 pts

 

[Big Phil]

Maybe its just me, but I was of the belief that Makar is the favourite for the Norris in 2022.


Anyway, as for the list, man does Letang ever get the shaft here. I think his career is going to be looked at in a very fond way and he'll be underrated.

 

[Pominville Knows]

Maybe its just me, but I was of the belief that Makar is the favourite for the Norris in 2022.


Anyway, as for the list, man does Letang ever get the shaft here. I think his career is going to be looked at in a very fond way and he'll be underrated.

I'm not saying he aint, i have no idea and 28 goals is obviously great. But this award was voted on before the playoffs, and Josi won the Predators scoring race by a large margin as a defenseman, and also amongst defensemen overall.
Is he not better defensively than Makar as well, although this is certainly just a hunch since i have not watched many games for several years now.

 

[The Panther]

One thing this HHOF Monitor doesn't take into account (I think... correct me if I'm wrong) is fan/media narrative after a player's decline. Karlsson is a good example. Yes, he's going to make the Hall of Fame almost beyond doubt, regardless of what happens from now. But for five years now he hasn't been considered a top-10 defenceman, and he might play another five years on a re-building Sharks team that'll often miss the playoffs (I'm speculating, of course). Frankly, at this point, his contract is a drain on his club.

None of these will prevent his making the Hall of Fame, but while the accomplishments seem slam-dunk, the legacy of the player will be diminished a lot if Karlsson's career continues on its current trajectory (it might not, I know).

 

[Big Phil]

I'm not saying he aint, i have no idea and 28 goals is obviously great. But this award was voted on before the playoffs, and Josi won the Predators scoring race by a large margin as a defenseman, and also amongst defensemen overall.
Is he not better defensively than Makar as well, although this is certainly just a hunch since i have not watched many games for several years now.

Makar just seems to have the puck follow him. I don't think anyone has the offensive package on defense like him. We'll see.

 

[BlueBull]

Also, @pnep , just as a side note, why doesn't the William M. Jennings add anything to the formula (at least a little bit) when not only The Vezina pre-Jennings does, but the Runner up as well?

I'm going to change up my Goalie HOF Monitor a little bit.

If a goaltender wins a Williams M. Jennings, it adds 50 points to the HHOF Monitor.
This doesn't change much, but I think It will make it a bit more fair to the young Goalie generation.
No Runner up Bonus points, either.
(Example: Marc-Andre Fleury has 1000.5 with Pnep's old formula, 1010.5 with My Old Formula, and 1060.5 with My Latest Formula.)

 

[BlueBull]

The Modern Goalie Hall of Fame

The Best NHL Goaltenders Drafted in the Past 25 Years (Minimum 400+, Uses New Formula):

Player Name - Draft Year - Position - HHOF Monitor
Marc-Andre Fleury - 2003 - Goaltender - 1060.5
Andrei Vasilevksy - 2012 - Goaltender - 997.5
Henrik Lundqvist - 2000 - Goaltender - 943*
Pekka Rinne - 2004 - Goaltender - 938.5*
Tuukka Rask - 2005 - Goaltender - 899.5*
Braden Holtby - 2008 - Goaltender - 886.5
Jonathan Quick - 2005 - Goaltender - 871
Carey Price - 2005 - Goaltender - 855
Roberto Luongo - 1997 - Goaltender - 838.5*
Ben Bishop - 2005 - Goaltender - 612.5*
Connor Hellebuyck - 2012 - Goaltender - 582.5
Corey Crawford - 2003 - Goaltender - 566*
Ryan Miller - 1999 - Goaltender - 545*
Semyon Varlamov - 2006 - Goaltender - 437.5
Ilya Bryzgalov - 2000 - Goaltender - 422*
Cam Ward - 2002 - Goaltender - 417*

* No Longer Playing in the NHL.

 

[pnep]

Also, @pnep , just as a side note, why doesn't the William M. Jennings add anything to the formula (at least a little bit) when not only The Vezina pre-Jennings does, but the Runner up as well?

I'm going to change up my Goalie HOF Monitor a little bit.

If a goaltender wins a Williams M. Jennings, it adds 50 points to the HHOF Monitor.
This doesn't change much, but I think It will make it a bit more fair to the young Goalie generation.
No Runner up Bonus points, either.
(Example: Marc-Andre Fleury has 1000.5 with Pnep's old formula, 1010.5 with My Old Formula, and 1060.5 with My Latest Formula.)

because im trying normalising awards for all seasons (1917-current).
why dublicate Vesina Point for old seasons (pre 1981), adding Jennings?
also im doubt HHOF electors give high regards for William M. Jennings Trophy.

 

[Theokritos]

Also, @pnep , just as a side note, why doesn't the William M. Jennings add anything to the formula (at least a little bit) when not only The Vezina pre-Jennings does, but the Runner up as well?

Are you trying to develop a formula of who you think should go to the HHOF or of who can be expected to go to the HHOF based on previous inductees? I'm under the impression @pnep does the latter.

 

[pnep]

expected to go to the HHOF based on previous inductees? I'm under the impression @pnep does the latter.

yep

 

[wetcoast]

because im trying normalising awards for all seasons (1917-current).
why dublicate Vesina Point for old seasons (pre 1981), adding Jennings?
also im doubt HHOF electors give high regards for William M. Jennings Trophy.

It's early here but what does this part for the Dmen actually mean?

Adjusted Games/5 +
Adjusted Pts/10 +
Adjusted PO Games/2 +
Adjusted PO Pts/4 +

Also if I'm reading things correctly Dmen gain points for elite play, ie being 1 or 2 in Norris voting and making the post season all star team, a guy like Letang who has a few top 10 finishes but not high ones due partly to injuries won't fair as well on this metric than a guy who plays full seasons right?

 

[pnep]

example

Adjusted Games/5: 972/5 = 194 HHOF Points +
Adjusted Pts/10: 694/10 = 69 HHOF Points +
Adjusted PO Games/2: 125/2 = 63 HHOF Points +
Adjusted PO Pts/4 + 58/4 = 15 HHOF Points
--------------------------------------------------
TOT : 341 HHOF Points (for Games and PTS)

 

[pnep]

has a few top 10 finishes

Letang dont have "Top 10 in Goals" or "Top 10 in PTS"

 

[wetcoast]

Letang dont have "Top 10 in Goals" or "Top 10 in PTS"

View attachment 554162

I meant in Norris voting and post season all star teams.

I'm not being critical about it just clarifying it.

Also what does the, okay never mind I see it in the pervious post now thanks.

 

[pnep]

I meant in Norris voting and post season all star teams.

ah
sorry

won't fair as well on this metric than a guy who plays full seasons right?

yep

 

[Hockeyholic]

Players who have been snubbed imo:

Barasso
Mogilny
Brind'Amour
Roenick
Alfie
Fleury
Turgeon
Middleton

 

[Ivo]

Top 16 Modern NHL Defensemen in the by their Monitor (Last 20 Years)

Just curious, do you have the number for Chara? I assume he must be close to the top among Dmen in the last 20 years, yet I don't see him on the list.

Edit: I tried to calculate it and came up with 1771, but I am sure I made some mistakes/misunderstood the formula. For example, the top-10 finishes refer to top-10 finishes among Defensemen or all skaters? I assumed the former, otherwise he would lose 90 points. Still comfortably ahead of everyone on the OP list.

 

[BlueBull]

Just curious, do you have the number for Chara? I assume he must be close to the top among Dmen in the last 20 years, yet I don't see him on the list.

Edit: I tried to calculate it and came up with 1771, but I am sure I made some mistakes/misunderstood the formula. For example, the top-10 finishes refer to top-10 finishes among Defensemen or all skaters? I assumed the former, otherwise he would lose 90 points. Still comfortably ahead of everyone on the OP list.

I used Top 10 among all skaters.

 

[pnep]

the top-10 finishes refer to top-10 finishes among Defensemen or all skaters?

all skaters