Value of: Blake Wheeler UFA in 2019

[DRW204]

Neilson was 32 when he signed a 6 yr deal with Detroit.
Savard was 32 when he signed a 7 yr deal with Boston.

With Gaborik, those are the only 3 forwards going back to 2001 who've signed contracts that were 6+ years who were 32 when they were signed.

If you want to look at blueliners, there's a few, but still not many.

Chara was 33 when he signed a 7 yr deal with Boston.
Pronger was 34 when he signed a 7 yr deal with Philly.
Ohlund was 32 when he signed a 7 yr deal with Tampa.
Timonen was 32 when he signed a 6 yr deal with Philly.

Thanks for this. I knew the list was quite slim for Forwards. I am hoping for a deal similar to Thornton's previous deal or the Sedin's final deal. 3-4 years ~10% of cap. If Wheeler wants longer security/term, the % of cap hit goes down, making the cap hit smaller but still the overall TCV larger.

 

[Danny1237]

I wonder if we will see something like the Ellis deal where they go to 8 just to get the AAV down. If they front load a $6M-$6.5M deal, he likely outperforms the cap hit for the first several years, and maybe he is Patrick Marleau esque and ages well later. They are similar in that they are bigger guys with fantastic wheels.

The other side of that coin is that if he keeps playing, but declines, he will be overpaid, but he gave the team a break when it mattered. Also, with signing bonuses the team could likely move him to a non-cap team since he will make far less than the cap hit. Finally, they could gamble heavily on paying him big money on that contract now, and having a compliance buyout on the new CBA if there are any significant changes. If nothing else, maybe it give the team the best shot to compete for a 2-4 year window, and they probably aren't completely screwed after that as long as they only have one or two contracts that are a little ugly at that point.

 

[Danny1237]

I always find this type of contract the most interesting. Winnipeg has a situation where they have gotten insane value in terms of both cap hit, and what it cost to acquire such an important player.

There are two ways to look at things: Winnipeg could decide that they already won out here, and why risk turning this massive win into a negative by offering a contract that could turn out bad

OR

Winnipeg has gotten so much out of Wheeler, maybe they should be willing to take a little risk on him, as in the end his tenure as a whole will always be a positive, even if there are some less than ideal years.

Both make sense in some ways, so it's kind of interesting to see how the team thinks when this type of situation comes up.

 

[Stuzchuk]

You are kidding right? Dude is getting 9+ a year. Elite two way forward is not settling for evander Kane money.

That's my opinion... you just saw a player taking a discount last summer to go play at home. Wheeler has been in WPG for a while if he decides that he wants to play there, I can see that guy taking a discount to play there

 

[BatVader]

If the Jets do really well this season, ie; semi-finals at the very least, I could see him taking less to stay in Winnipeg.
If they crap the bed, then I think he demands top value he can get.

 

[Dustin]

Wheeler is probably going to want a long term contract, worth a fair price and loaded in a similar fashion as Tavares. I don't see why he would sign for anything less than 9 a year considering where the cap is now and where it is going and i am sure there are several teams that would pay him that.

If I'm Winnipeg I'm probably entertaining the thought process of trying to trade him by the TDL if the season isn't going the way they want. If not, you might as well try to win with him.

 

[bennysflyers16]

4 yrs, up to 9 mill. Cap hit will need to be high to keep the years down.

 

[Oneiro]

Yeah, it's tricky because WPG has probably seen the best of Wheeler and they will have a few big contracts in the upcoming years. As tough as it is, with no discount, letting him walk may be the right move.

Look at the state of more and more RFA negotiations - players and agents know that the peaks are coming earlier and earlier and have to make the most of it. It's not a great matter of statistical debate - the prime years are still under team control and, most likely, at age 28 and beyond you are paying for past performance. Very few players are worthy of commitments well into their 30s.

GMs have to get smarter to keep the window open.

 

[matt trick]

I expect the sharks to target all the big free agents next year- Panarin, Wheeler, Karlsson, Seguin for a 9M+ contract. They missed on Tavares and of you can pay Kane 7 and Couture 8 you can try and get a better players for 9M+. Wilson seems to care about the next 3-4 years. After that it is cap anchor city.

Also Couture, Hertl, and Wheeler would be a legit #1 line, without a franchise cwnter

 

[Flair Hay]

The main question I had asked was " If the Jets let him walk, how much would he be worth, and what kind of contract would you sign him to if you were a GM of one of the NHL clubs?" Personally,I would match Byfuglien's deal (5 year/$38 million AAV= $7.6 million)

Adjust it for the cap increase plus maybe a little more and I think that's fair. 5 years 8.5 maybe?

 

[Halla]

Pay Dat man his money. people on here thinking 7-7.5 are nuts

78pts,74pts,91pts....

23 pts more than Tavares over the same time frame but he is gonna take 3.5-4mil less per year?
I get that he isnt a center but damnnn

5 years, 9 per or watch him walk

 

[JetsHomer]

Pay Dat man his money. people on here thinking 7-7.5 are nuts

78pts,74pts,91pts....

23 pts more than Tavares over the same time frame but he is gonna take 3.5-4mil less per year?
I get that he isnt a center but damnnn

5 years, 9 per or watch him walk

He’ll be turning 33 the first year of his next deal. Tavares is 28

 

[Halla]

5 years for 7.5 million

I'd love to be in the room when his agent hears them offering 11.5mil than what JVR just got, considering he outscored JVR by 37pts last year

 

[Saitama]

If the Jets do really well this season, ie; semi-finals at the very least, I could see him taking less to stay in Winnipeg.
If they crap the bed, then I think he demands top value he can get.

So he's staying then? Sweet!

 

[Halla]

The main question I had asked was " If the Jets let him walk, how much would he be worth, and what kind of contract would you sign him to if you were a GM of one of the NHL clubs?" Personally,I would match Byfuglien's deal (5 year/$38 million AAV= $7.6 million)

so 600k per year more than JVR coming off 54pts, and 3.4 mil per less than JT coming off 84pts?

yeah thats gonna go over well. Ryan Johansen got 8x8. He is coming off 60/61/54 pt seasons. thats 68 pts less over 3 seasons but wheeler doesnt deserve the same cash?

 

[Hostile Offer]

so 600k per year more than JVR coming off 54pts, and 3.4 mil per less than JT coming off 84pts?

yeah thats gonna go over well. Ryan Johansen got 8x8. He is coming off 60/61/54 pt seasons. thats 68 pts less over 3 seasons but wheeler doesnt deserve the same cash?

Yeah I don't think he's gonna use a centre who was 24 at the time as a comparable for his new contract.

 

[Jay haller]

Pay Dat man his money. people on here thinking 7-7.5 are nuts

78pts,74pts,91pts....

23 pts more than Tavares over the same time frame but he is gonna take 3.5-4mil less per year?
I get that he isnt a center but damnnn

5 years, 9 per or watch him walk

Well he’s walking then anyone making over 2.5 mill is grossly overpaid. Except McDavid

 

[Afterburner]

The man wants a cup. He’s not signing anywhere he doesn’t have a serious crack at it. I say he takes a Chevy deal and tries with the Jets. Cappy is staying.

 

[Fire Benning]

Probably should get something in the 7-8 range.

 

[bukwas]

8.6 per, for 5 years should be close.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

I will guess 5 years, $8.25 million per year.

 

[BatVader]

5×8.5

Very nice.