Confirmed with Link: Bickell re-signs (4 years, $4M AAV)

[Crazy_Ike]

A scrub like Jayes is all Bickell was until this year. If he really did turn the corner and is now the player we saw this spring four million is cheap for what he brings. If not...

I'm not saying he's not gonna be worth those dollars. It's just a pretty big risk to be taking for a team with a bunch of core pieces needing to be given raises in the next few years

This is pretty much it. It's absolutely possible Bickell will play at a 4m player pace. The question will be whether or not the odds favored it to the point of making the contract worth the risk.

Here's what scares me. Bickell had a great playoffs no doubt. But one of those red flag stats is shooting percentage. Bickell's shooting percentage was WAY higher than he has typically been in years past and this year's regular season, unsustainably high. I mean, Steven Stamkos high. This is very suggestive of simply going on a hot streak. He also had more goals than assists, suggestive that he was scoring a disproportionate amount of his line's generated offense.

Hey, playoffs is a great time to do this. But when these things happen you really have to worry that it was more fluke than talent and that's just not something you want to rely on.

He's more than welcome to show me I'm wrong, of course.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Bickell scored his first year, largely from the perimeter. Every other part of his game was wanting.

He was a rookie, I think you can agree almost every facet of his game has improved since that season. He has learned how to use his body quite well, is fairly decent defensively, still has a wicked shot, and can skate fairly well for a guy his size.

If we didnt sign him, everyone would be wanting to get a Clowe or Clarkson or a 4th liner who can hit but nothing else. Not only that, if we didn't pay him, and a direct competitor did..that would make it even worse.

 

[topnotch]

This is pretty much it. It's absolutely possible Bickell will play at a 4m player pace. The question will be whether or not the odds favored it to the point of making the contract worth the risk.

Here's what scares me. Bickell had a great playoffs no doubt. But one of those red flag stats is shooting percentage. Bickell's shooting percentage was WAY higher than he has typically been in years past and this year's regular season, unsustainably high. I mean, Steven Stamkos high. This is very suggestive of simply going on a hot streak. He also had more goals than assists, suggestive that he was scoring a disproportionate amount of his line's generated offense.

Hey, playoffs is a great time to do this. But when these things happen you really have to worry that it was more fluke than talent and that's just not something you want to rely on.

He's more than welcome to show me I'm wrong, of course.

If Bickell could consistently play as well as he did in this year's playoffs he would be worth more than 4 million per. He would garner 6+ million talk with more years.

 

[Bubba88]

no, Bickell wouldn't get 6+. He's not a guy you have as your go to guy, as that core guy. He is a nice 3rd wheel and physical player. Not to mention that this POs weren't a normal for him. It was way above the average and even if he still gets better, it will still be above average.

 

[topnotch]

no, Bickell wouldn't get 6+. He's not a guy you have as your go to guy, as that core guy. He is a nice 3rd wheel and physical player. Not to mention that this POs weren't a normal for him. It was way above the average and even if he still gets better, it will still be above average.

In the last 3 years if Bickell was consistently the player he was in the playoffs he would get 6+ million for 5-6 years.

His playoffs extrapolated would be 32 goals and 60+ points all the while taking up space, and hitting opposing defensemen.

He would Milan Lucic if he can consistently put up those numbers.

Now I don't think Bickell can do this consistently. But that's just how good his playoffs were.


Also, Clowe just got 5 years and 4.85 million per from NJ.

 

[ColdSteel2]

Thank you BB, thanks again, what a deal, left a lot of cash out there.

 

[tdfxman]

In the last 3 years if Bickell was consistently the player he was in the playoffs he would get 6+ million for 5-6 years.

His playoffs extrapolated would be 32 goals and 60+ points all the while taking up space, and hitting opposing defensemen.

He would Milan Lucic if he can consistently put up those numbers.

Now I don't think Bickell can do this consistently. But that's just how good his playoffs were.


Also, Clowe just got 5 years and 4.85 million per from NJ.

Great post. was going to mention Clowe's contract. Wow. 4.85 to 4.0. I wouldn't want Clowe for 3M much less 4.85.

 

[Illinihockey]

This deal looks awesome now seeing what Clowe and Horton got

 

[Bubba88]

that's why Bickell has taken a discount...

 

[Pailhead]

This deal looks awesome now seeing what Clowe and Horton got

It will look even better after the Clarkson money is announced.

 

[topnotch]

It will look even better after the Clarkson money is announced.

Yep.

Clowe 4.85M per over 5 years
Horton 5.3M per over 7 years
Clarkson 5.25M per over 7 years
Stalberg 3.0M per over 4 years

Bickell 4.0M per over 4 years

 

[SLarmer28*]

Yep.

Clowe 4.85M per over 5 years
Horton 5.3M per over 7 years
Clarkson 5.25M per over 7 years
Stalberg 3.0M per over 4 years

Bickell 4.0M per over 4 years

The Clowe and Clarkson deals are the very definition of unrestricted free agent insanity.

 

[BobbyJet]

Yep.

Clowe 4.85M per over 5 years
Horton 5.3M per over 7 years
Clarkson 5.25M per over 7 years
Stalberg 3.0M per over 4 years

Bickell 4.0M per over 4 years

Yep. Lots of insanity there. Horton's signing stands out for me. The guy is going under the knife and won't even begin the season ... as well, he has had at least 2 concussions and one was severe. To sign him to a 7 year deal is risky to say the least. Horton, Clowe and Clarkson all are solid players, but those contracts are on the outrageous side.
As for Stalberg and BB. Both will have larger roles next season. We'll see if they are worth the money.

 

[ndgt10]

Bickell deal looks great right now.

 

[BronYrAur]

Stalberg is still criminally underpaid compared to the rest of those guys. Bickell deal looks better now that is for sure.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

Stalberg is still criminally underpaid compared to the rest of those guys. Bickell deal looks better now that is for sure.

IMO - it's criminal to compare Stalberg to guys like Horton who actually show up for the P/O's!

Obviosly - signing singificant UFA's is the #1 indication of a team that is in trouble. I'm 10x more excited about giving the kids a chance than overpaying some stiff like Stalberg to fill a top 9 forward role. If all the kids bomb, maybe I'll change my tune, but the way to be successful over the long haul is to have prospects ready to step up when the non-core players leave.

 

[Bubba88]

signing Stalberg to 3.0 and 4 years is not underpaid. His 1 Playoff goal is really worth that

 

[Sir Psycho T]

IMO - it's criminal to compare Stalberg to guys like Horton who actually show up for the P/O's!

Obviosly - signing singificant UFA's is the #1 indication of a team that is in trouble. I'm 10x more excited about giving the kids a chance than overpaying some stiff like Stalberg to fill a top 9 forward role. If all the kids bomb, maybe I'll change my tune, but the way to be successful over the long haul is to have prospects ready to step up when the non-core players leave.

It's just as criminal to compare Bickell to Horton. Horton a guy who has scored 20 or more goals every year but in 11-12 when he was injured vs a guy who has never scored 20.

Bickells deal doesn't look that great, people are just blinded by his playoff run. Bickell is actually overpaid considering his careers work and not 1 playoffs.

 

[Godlike13]

Ok, so compare Bickell to Clarkson. Its pretty clear Bickell could have gotten more on the open market. So he's not overpaid considering the market. And Horton probably could have gotten more, but he was looking for a smaller city.

 

[Sir Psycho T]

Ok, so compare Bickell to Clarkson. Its pretty clear Bickell could have gotten more on the open market. So he's not overpaid considering the market. And Horton probably could have gotten more, but he was looking for a smaller city.

Clarkson who in 11-12 scored 30 goals and was on pace to get 26 this year in a regular 82 game season. In the last 2 years Clarkson has scored 45 goals, during that time Bickell has scored 18.

Only real comparison is Clowe who was horrible last year.

 

[Illinihockey]

It's just as criminal to compare Bickell to Horton. Horton a guy who has scored 20 or more goals every year but in 11-12 when he was injured vs a guy who has never scored 20.

Bickells deal doesn't look that great, people are just blinded by his playoff run. Bickell is actually overpaid considering his careers work and not 1 playoffs.

Horton has been hurt 5 of the last 6 years and will miss 3 months of next year

 

[Sir Psycho T]

Horton has been hurt 5 of the last 6 years and will miss 3 months of next year

11-12 was the only year he missed significant time. I don't count it as an injury unless a guy misses 25% of his teams games. Guys will often pick up knocks and other things and miss 10-15 games in a year.

 

[Illinihockey]

11-12 was the only year he missed significant time. I don't count it as an injury unless a guy misses 25% of his teams games. Guys will often pick up knocks and other things and miss 10-15 games in a year.

That's prett arbitrary. Missing 15 games in a season is a lot

 

[Godlike13]

Clarkson who in 11-12 scored 30 goals and was on pace to get 26 this year in a regular 82 game season. In the last 2 years Clarkson has scored 45 goals, during that time Bickell has scored 18.

Only real comparison is Clowe who was horrible last year.

Clarkson who in 11-12 scored 30 goals, but in every other season never manged to even reach 20 and only once broke 30 points with 32 in 2008–09. Clarkson who only has one more point this year then Bickell. In the last 3 years, in which Clarkson has played 13 more game, Clarkson has totaled 88 points and during that time Bickell has totaled 84.
Now to even further compare, how about we also look at their playoff careers. Clarkson in 44 career playoff games has 14 total points (5 goals and 9 assist), Bickell in 38 career playoff games has 24 (13 goals and 11 assist).

But ya, there's no real comparison there...

 

[madgoat33]

Clarkson who in 11-12 scored 30 goals and was on pace to get 26 this year in a regular 82 game season. In the last 2 years Clarkson has scored 45 goals, during that time Bickell has scored 18.

Only real comparison is Clowe who was horrible last year.

Clarkson scored like 8 pts the last 36 games of the season. He also plays on a scoring line, where as bickell has played almost exclusively in the bottom 6 the past two seasons with virtually no PP time.

Past two seasons-
Clarkson:
11/12- ES:22g, 8a, 30p 13:17/g
PP:8g, 8a, 16p 3:03/g
-8, 169 hits(second on team)
12/13-ES:9g, 7a, 16p 14:01/g
PP:6g, 2a, 8p 3:33/g
- 6, 84 hits(second on team)

TOTAL-ES:28g, 15a, 43p 13:34/g
PP:14g, 10a, 24p 3:15/g
-14, 253 hits(first on team)


Bickell:
11/12- ES:9g, 15a, 24p 11:39/g
PP:0g, 0a, 0p 0:28/g
-3, 128hits(second on team)
12/13- ES:9g, 14a, 23p 12:30/g
PP:0g, 0a, 0p 0:17/g
+12, 108hits(first on team)

TOTAL-ES:18g, 29a, 47p 12:00/g
PP:0g, 0a, 0p 0:23/g
+9, 236hits(second on team)


Bickell has outproduced clarkson at ES over the past two seasons while getting less minutes on a lower line. Add in his impressive playoffs where he actually got time on a scoring line and the fact he's younger with less miles on his body and bickell's contract compares very favorably to clarkson's IMO.

edit: according to devils fans he played almost exclusively on the third line last year, though i find it hard to believe based on his minutes. if anyone has the link to that site that logs toi with teammates it would be appreciated.