Better GOALscoring season: Ovie 07-08 vs Matthews 23-24

[Michael Farkas]

I believe Ovechkin's adjusts higher - as is the case compared to league wide averages or compared to other metrics for top players.

If you want to adjust for the defensive metrics - that's fine by me.

Well, if Ovechkin's goals adjust higher...wouldn't that mean that Matthews goals against adjust lower?

Of course, raw GA is not exactly a good idea for determining defensive worth. But why would one adjust one data point of raw goal data and not another...?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Well, if Ovechkin's goals adjust higher...wouldn't that mean that Matthews goals against adjust lower?

Of course, raw GA is not exactly a good idea for determining defensive worth. But why would one adjust one data point of raw goal data and not another...?

I'm fine with adjusting both. Go for it.

Back of the envelope - It's going to result with Ovechkin's defensive result being slightly better.

 

[Leafidelity]

This is peak HFBoards

 

[Midnight Judges]

Of course, raw GA is not exactly a good idea for determining defensive worth.

Is there 1 raw stat that does this well? If there is, I'm not aware of it.

I am disinclined to trust the so-called advanced stats which once resulted in one of our stats gurus showing Ovechkin was a waaaaaay better player in 2016 than he was in 2009. That is a disqualifyingly poor result IMO.

 

[um]

So is era adjusted good or bad? Not following.

I'm sure with era-adjusted stats Gretzky is not Gretzky anymore... is Lemiuex the consensus #1 or is there someone else?

It's almost like just posting that link and nothing else is silly.

For example, it doesn't take into account the insane amount of PP time that Ovechkin got.

You want to add context to 06 and pre-WW2? I think all eras need context.

go look it up, its quite fun.

And to answer your question. The great one is still the great one.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Is there 1 raw stat that does this well? If there is, I'm not aware of it.

I am disinclined to trust the so-called advanced stats which once resulted in one of our stats gurus showing Ovechkin was a waaaaaay better player in 2016 than he was in 2009. That is a disqualifyingly poor result IMO.

No, no shortcuts. Everything needs proper talent evaluation.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

so Hyman was a better goalscorer than MacKinnon and Pasta this season?

Bernie Nicholls 88-89 better than Matthews this season too?

I mean this year year, yes Hyman was, was he previously? no, is it ever likely to happen again? no but this year yes Hyman was.

Doesn't make Hyman a better pverall goal scorer nobody would claim that, but this season? Yes he was

 

[notbias]

go look it up, its quite fun.

And to answer your question. The great one is still the great one.

Lemieux has a higher PPG and Gretzky is reachable in points... if people used era-adjusted stats, I'm assuming there'd be a much stronger argument for Lemieux

 

[Dingo]

Matthews scored more goals. So yeah…Matthews. Easy answer.

just so long as you are ready to declare Hyman and Reinhart better than Crosby, and Panarin better than every player from that generation, then you have my full respect.

 

[um]

Lemieux has a higher PPG and Gretzky is reachable in points... if people used era-adjusted stats, I'm assuming there'd be a much stronger argument for Lemieux

Quit assuming and take a peak. It’s a fun experience for any hockey fan.

Personally I still have Gretzky as the GOAT, but Orr and Lemieux ain’t far behind. Unfortunately there’s a lot of shoulda woulda coulda with those two. Gretzky’s records and awards are just too untouchable.

 

[Three On Zero]

69 > 65, sorry Ovi

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I love how everyone ignores that Ovechkin had like 200 more mins on the PP.
give Matthews 200 more mins on the powerplay and he very well could have 80 goals this season

 

[notbias]

Quit assuming and take a peak. It’s a fun experience for any hockey fan.

Personally I still have Gretzky as the GOAT, but Orr and Lemieux ain’t far behind. Unfortunately there’s a lot of shoulda woulda coulda with those two. Gretzky’s records and awards are just too untouchable.

Era adjusted is shoulda coulda woulda...

This whole thread is people arguing that if Prime Ovi was in the NHL today he would have got more than 69...

Posts like these are hilarious.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

if you watched peak ovechkin you knew that everytime he had the puck people stood up in anticipation of something spectacular. no one does that for matthews

to be fair Matthews plays a much more important position with alot more responsibility. Ovechkin played like a wrecking ball that season but he also had over 200 more mins on the PP which helps ALOT.

 

[amnesiac]

69 > 65, sorry Ovi

Bernie Nicholls 70G > 69 and 65

sorry Matthews and Ovie.

 

[Three On Zero]

Bernie Nicholls 70G > 69 and 65

sorry Matthews and Ovie.

Simple math approves

 

[amnesiac]

Lemieux has a higher PPG and Gretzky is reachable in points... if people used era-adjusted stats, I'm assuming there'd be a much stronger argument for Lemieux

I dont see that way.... for me you have to put everyone in a vacuum. As I mentioned, put Pasta with McDavid and Hyman with Zacha, and its a joke. Pasta is clearly a better goalscorer than Hyman this year, or any year.

 

[amnesiac]

Simple math approves

2007-08 had an avg of 5.56 goals/game

1988-89 was 7.48 goals/game

simple math

 

[Three On Zero]

2007-08 had an avg of 5.56 goals/game

1988-89 was 7.48 goals/game

simple math

Better players in 88-89

 

[notbias]

I dont see that way.... for me you have to put everyone in a vacuum. As I mentioned, put Pasta with McDavid and Hyman with Zacha, and its a joke. Pasta is clearly a better goalscorer than Hyman this year, or any year.

If we are taking all the variables into account, I think 200 more minutes of power play time is more important than era-adjusted goals...

 

[amnesiac]

If we are taking all the variables into account, I think 200 more minutes of power play time is more important than era-adjusted goals...

sure I agree.... the GPG avg difference between 07-08 and 23-24 is quite small anyway

but then AM had the better team around him quite easily as I outlined earlier.

Its very close in the end. Anyone who thinks its CLEARLY AM or CLEARLY OV are just wrong.

 

[notbias]

sure I agree.... the GPG avg difference between 07-08 and 23-24 is quite small anyway

but then AM had the better team quite easily as I outlined earlier.

But then you have to account for positional as well, Ovi is not as responsible defensively.

I don't think either team's D is overly offensive and their most common linemates are comparable to me... but sure, edge to Matthews there.

Matthews was with Marner/Knies most
Ovechkin was with Backstrom/Kozlov most

Does it matter which team had people that scored more on the 2nd line?

Ovi had 43 ESG and 22 PPG, he played 1879 at ES and 460 on the PP.
Matthews had 51 ESG and 18 PPG, he played 1698 at ES and 276 on the PP.

ESG/60
Ovi = 1.37
Matthews = 1.80

PPG/60
Ovi = 2.87
Matthews = 3.91

we should do some "ice-time adjusted stats" just like our era-adjusted.

Matthews had 56 ESG and 30 PPG using Ovi's TOI.

So Matthews' new ice-time adjusted goals is 86, which you can now era-adjust and tell me who had the better season.

Can also linemate adjust and then adjust for defensive impact if you'd like.

 

[um]

Era adjusted is shoulda coulda woulda...

This whole thread is people arguing that if Prime Ovi was in the NHL today he would have got more than 69...

Posts like these are hilarious.

Why’d you get mad all the sudden?

Take it easy homie.

 

[amnesiac]

But then you have to account for positional as well, Ovi is not as responsible defensively.

I don't think either team's D is overly offensive and their most common linemates are comparable to me... but sure, edge to Matthews there.

Matthews was with Marner/Knies most
Ovechkin was with Backstrom/Kozlov most

Does it matter which team had people that scored more on the 2nd line?

Ovi had 43 ESG and 22 PPG, he played 1879 at ES and 460 on the PP.
Matthews had 51 ESG and 18 PPG, he played 1698 at ES and 276 on the PP.

ESG/60
Ovi = 1.37
Matthews = 1.80

PPG/60
Ovi = 2.87
Matthews = 3.91

we should do some "ice-time adjusted stats" just like our era-adjusted.

Matthews had 56 ESG and 30 PPG using Ovi's TOI.

So Matthews' new ice-time adjusted goals is 86, which you can now era-adjust and tell me who had the better season.

Can also linemate adjust and then adjust for defensive impact if you'd like.

sure, why not? its information. Its just up to you whether you think its very relevant information.

TOI adjusted is not 86G, though

Ovi 07-08: 82GP x 23 TOI/g
Matthews 23-24: 81GP x 21 TOI/g

gives 76.5G

 

[notbias]

sure, why not? its information. Its just up to you whether you think its very relevant information.

TOI adjusted is not 86G, though

Ovi 07-08: 82GP x 23 TOI/g
Matthews 23-24: 81GP x 21 TOI/g

gives 76.5G

You have to adjust for PP and ES... I did the math for you