Better GOALscoring season: Ovie 07-08 vs Matthews 23-24

[amnesiac]

There are many different variables... how many teams are enough teams where era-adjusted is allowed?

Were 21 teams enough? It doesn't seem like it can be compared with the current league.

I'm done with this convo, you are telling me which variables are valid and which aren't, it is insanity to continue this, it is all your opinion about when to use and not use these era-adjusted stats.

its just MATH, man.... the SMALLER the sample size, the BIGGER the degree of error. Isnt that just obvious?

heres a rough chart:

7 teams/30 games to today = (call it) a very large degree of error

14 teams/50 games = medium degree of error

21 teams/80 games to today = small degree of error

30 teams/82 games to today = very small degree of error


I take it you still dont understand, though

 

[Stephen]

JMO but the standard for adjusted stats isn't "Are they perfect?" it's "Are they more indicative than raw stats?"

Raw stats are real and has all the reality of what happened baked into them. Hot streaks, cold streaks, goalie and defense of that era, durability, injury, the yip, in-season trades, sheer effort, technology human factor baked into a number. That’s good enough for me, and we can throw all the variables into a debate when discussing across eras.

Era adjusted isn’t for me. If someone just wants to say they prefer Ovechkin’s that would be preferable to this.

 

[Stephen]

jesus christ...... has nothing to do with equipment..... has everything to do with how many teams and players there are in the league, and what the resulting GPG avg is over an entire season.

In 1925 there were 7 teams and 30GP

2008 there were 30 teams and 82GP

2024 there is 32 teams and 82GP

do I really need to explain further why the GPG avg from 1925 will not be as "accurate" in comparison to 2024, than 2008 is to 2024?

at this point, I feel like youre just arguing for the sake of trying to get the last word here with your one line sentence answers.

Sorry that math wasnt your strong suit, but this is how statistics work. Its not an opinion, its a science.

This is where the value of era adjusted stats completely unravels. What’s the point in an era adjusted model that doesn’t really adjust across vastly different eras properly if that was the mission statement to begin with?

If the model works best when comparing like seasons, with a like number of games played and number of teams in the league, are the minute adjustments even valuable?

 

[bobbyking]

if you watched peak ovechkin you knew that everytime he had the puck people stood up in anticipation of something spectacular. no one does that for matthews

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Most goals in a season from 07/08 - 17/18 (excluding Ovechkin outside of 07/08)

1. Ovechkin 65 (07/08)
2. Stamkos 60 (11/12)
3. Kovalchuk 52 (07/08)
5. Stamkos/Crosby 51 (09/10)
10. Kane 46 (15/16)
20. Several players 43

Ovechkin scored 22% more goals than the 3rd highest goalscoring season, 24.1% more than 5th, 34.2% more than 10th, and 40.7 % more than 20th. This is over 10 full seasons and one lockout-shortened season.

Most goals in a season from 18/19 - 23/24 (excluding Matthews outside of 23/24)

1. Matthews 69 (23/24)
2. McDavid 64 (22/23)
3. Pastrnak 61 (22/23)
4. Reinhart 57 (23/24)
5. Rantanen/Draisaitl 55
10. Point/Mackinnon/Ovechkin 51
20. Several players 47

Matthews scored 12.3% more goals than 3rd, 22.5% more than 5th, 30% more than 10th, and 37.9% more than 20th. This is over 4 full seasons, one covid shortened season, and another shortened season due to lockdown.

'08 Ovechkin separated himself from his peers slightly more and did it over a longer period than Matthews. There have already been more 60 goal seasons since 2021 than in the previous 26 seasons (94/95->20/21). If we continue to see more players hitting 60 and approaching Matthews' goal total in the coming seasons, it will further diminish Matthews' argument in this comparison.

 

[amnesiac]

if you watched peak ovechkin you knew that everytime he had the puck people stood up in anticipation of something spectacular. no one does that for matthews

people did for Bure too in Vancouver, it didnt make him a better goalscorer than say Brett Hull in 90-91

 

[sadpanda]

Considering matthews played like 200 minutes less on the power play iirc I’ll 100% take matthews 69 goals. Not surprised Ovie is winning though with all the leafs bias.

Ps. This site is f***ing unusable now with all the ads popping up everywhere.

Use Brave as browser. So good for this site lol

 

[Mrb1p]

Ovi, this isn't even a question.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Most goals in a season from 07/08 - 17/18 (excluding Ovechkin outside of 07/08)

1. Ovechkin 65 (07/08)
2. Stamkos 60 (11/12)
3. Kovalchuk 52 (07/08)
5. Stamkos/Crosby 51 (09/10)
10. Kane 46 (15/16)
20. Several players 43

Ovechkin scored 22% more goals than the 3rd highest goalscoring season, 24.1% more than 5th, 34.2% more than 10th, and 40.7 % more than 20th. This is over 10 full seasons and one lockout-shortened season.

Most goals in a season from 18/19 - 23/24 (excluding Matthews outside of 23/24)

1. Matthews 69 (23/24)
2. McDavid 64 (22/23)
3. Pastrnak 61 (22/23)
4. Reinhart 57 (23/24)
5. Rantanen/Draisaitl 55
10. Point/Mackinnon/Ovechkin 51
20. Several players 47

Matthews scored 12.3% more goals than 3rd, 22.5% more than 5th, 30% more than 10th, and 37.9% more than 20th. This is over 4 full seasons, one covid shortened season, and another shortened season due to lockdown.

'08 Ovechkin separated himself from his peers slightly more and did it over a longer period than Matthews. There have already been more 60 goal seasons since 2021 than in the previous 26 seasons (94/95->20/21). If we continue to see more players hitting 60 and approaching Matthews' goal total in the coming seasons, it will further diminish Matthews' argument in this comparison.

This is a decent way of setting context - a valid way of looking at things.

It also aligns with the hockey reference adjusted stats - a different and also valid way of looking at things.

 

[Regal]

This is where the value of era adjusted stats completely unravels. What’s the point in an era adjusted model that doesn’t really adjust across vastly different eras properly if that was the mission statement to begin with?

If the model works best when comparing like seasons, with a like number of games played and number of teams in the league, are the minute adjustments even valuable?

There’s plenty of situations where models work for certain situations but not others. This is nothing new and not a criticism of the model as long as it’s used correctly. And we’re dealing with a difference of 4 actual goals. I’m not sure why minute adjustments wouldn’t be valuable

 

[KapG]

Use Brave as browser. So good for this site lol

Second person to recommend this. Might have to give it a shot

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

It's Matthews simply because he scored more goals, I'm not quite sure how the guy who scored more goals is losing this poll seeing as the poll is about goal scoring.

 

[amnesiac]

It's Matthews simply because he scored more goals, I'm not quite sure how the guy who scored more goals is losing this poll seeing as the poll is about goal scoring.

so Hyman was a better goalscorer than MacKinnon and Pasta this season?

Bernie Nicholls 88-89 better than Matthews this season too?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Its Ovi easily but that's not really a knock on AM's amazing season whatsoever

 

[bobholly39]

so Hyman was a better goalscorer than MacKinnon and Pasta this season?

Bernie Nicholls 88-89 better than Matthews this season too?

The guy you're quoting is hilariously wrong of course, but in regards to the bolded.......yes?

Absolutely. Hyman was a better goal-scorer than both MacKinnon and Pasta this season. They both were better overall offensive players (ie points) - but for goals, of course Hyman is better. You don't "adjust" stats within a season.

 

[amnesiac]

The guy you're quoting is hilariously wrong of course, but in regards to the bolded.......yes?

Absolutely. Hyman was a better goal-scorer than both MacKinnon and Pasta this season. They both were better overall offensive players (ie points) - but for goals, of course Hyman is better. You don't "adjust" stats within a season.

Disagree.... I think about 25-30 of his goals was a product of McDavid (and the PP) more than anything. I mean, imagine if Hyman and Pasta switched centres.

ie. in a vacuum Pasta and MacKinnon are clearly the better shooters and hence "goalscorers".

 

[authentic]

It's Matthews simply because he scored more goals, I'm not quite sure how the guy who scored more goals is losing this poll seeing as the poll is about goal scoring.

Well it's not even that but that he played 1 less games, half the powerplay time, played actual defense 5 on 5, and only comes out to like 2 adjusted goals worse. That sounds like the better goal scorer to me.

 

[amnesiac]

Well it's not even that but that he played 1 less games, half the powerplay time, played actual defense 5 on 5, and only comes out to like 2 adjusted goals worse. That sounds like the better goal scorer to me.

Matthews did have the better linemates and overall team, though. Pretty easily.

Im startng to sway towards Ovie by a hair now.

 

[authentic]

Matthews did have the better linemates and overall team, though. Pretty easily.

Im startng to sway towards Ovie by a hair now.

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Everything ran through Ovechkin though, Toronto’s depth does not help Matthews rack up stats as much as having the offense run through one player who’s out there the whole powerplay. Ovechkin had better linemates a few seasons later and he scored less goals, but racked up more assists.

 

[amnesiac]

Everything ran through Ovechkin though, Toronto’s depth does not help Matthews rack up stats as much as having the offense run through one player who’s out there the whole powerplay. Ovechkin had better linemates a few seasons later and he scored less goals, but racked up more assists.

but then youre saying Matthews didnt have to "work as hard" being better surrounded, and I agree. Most players (on average) will score more when theyre on a better team.

But as discussed before AM had the better 2 way game.

I think theres a lot of arguments for both sides. Its really not as one sided as you (and also many Ovi voters) may believe.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Ovechkin was on the ice for 66 non-power play goals against in '07-08.

Matthews was on the ice for 75 despite playing for a superior team to the '07-08 Capitals.

So, then...Matthews 69 goals is a better goal scoring season than Ovechkin's 65, right?

 

[authentic]

but then youre saying Matthews didnt have to "work as hard" being better surrounded, and I agree. Most players (on average) will score more when theyre on a better team.

But as discussed before AM had the better 2 way game.

I think theres a lot of arguments for both sides. Its really not as one sided as you (and also many Ovi voters) may believe.

I don’t think it’s one sided at all, it’s obviously very close but the argument that Ovechkin would’ve scored more with better linemates is clearly not true when he played with better linemates than Matthews two seasons later and scored less goals.

 

[amnesiac]

I don’t think it’s one sided at all, it’s obviously very close but the argument that Ovechkin would’ve scored more with better linemates is clearly not true when he played with better linemates than Matthews two seasons later and scored less goals.

I know what youre saying, but it really depends on the player.

eg. Bure scored more (58 and 59 at the peak of the DPE) in FLA with crap linemates than on a better VAN team in 93 and 94.

On the other hand, Im fairly certain Point doesn't score 51 or 46 without Kucherov at all.

 

[Montreal Shadow]

Well it's not even that but that he played 1 less games, half the powerplay time, played actual defense 5 on 5, and only comes out to like 2 adjusted goals worse. That sounds like the better goal scorer to me.

Look at their supporting casts.

 

[Midnight Judges]

So, then...Matthews 69 goals is a better goal scoring season than Ovechkin's 65, right?

Ovechkin's adjusts higher - as is the case compared to league wide averages or compared to other metrics for top players for that season as well as surrounding seasons.

If you want to adjust for the defensive metrics - that's fine by me.