Best ever Player's Season Goal-Differential

[The Panther]

It's related to plus/minus of course, but I'm more interested in a given player's total goals-for vs. goals-against differentials in individual seasons. I started from the assumption that Orr in 1970-71 is the best 'difference' (total goals-on-ice-for minus total goals-on-ice-against). But who is #2... #3...?

1. Bobby Orr (Bos.) 1970-71 = 173

I think it's a set deal that this is #1 since the 1960s, if not of all time. Basically, by putting Orr on the ice each game that season, the B's would normally outscore the opposition by 2 goals over the 30 minutes or so Orr played. With the possible exception of a couple of Gretzky-stats, I find this the most incredible individual-season stat in NHL history!

So, who and what season is #2 in differential? With Orr, there's no other season where he was really close to that. His 2nd-best is 1971-72, when he was 126.

In only his 2nd season (!) (1978-79), Mike Bossy's differential was 133, and he was 124 in 1981-82.

In the same 1978-79 season, when he was MVP, Bryan Trottier's differential was 138.

Somewhat surprisingly to me, Wayne Gretzky's best season-differential was 1981-82, which was neither the Oilers' best season or Gretzky's top plus/minus season. However, his differential was 142, possibly because he was scoring more on the power-play that year than subsequently (and he was rarely killing penalties at that stage). Gretzky was also at 122 in 1984-85 (in which season he had the highest plus/minus ever for a forward).

Larry Robinson reached a differential of 144 during 1976-77 (the Habs' best season and Robinson's +120 season). Strangely, he never before of after that year reached a goal-differential of even 90, however.


Anyway, those are the players/seasons that occurred to me, off the top of my head. I don't think anyone will approach Orr's 1970-71 goal-differential, but I would like to see, say, the top-5 or 10 seasons in (modern) history. (What a pity we don't have these kinds of stats for the pre-expansion era.)

So, so far, I've got:

1. Bobby Orr (Bos.) 1970-71 = 173
2. Larry Robinson (Mon.) 1976-77 = 144
3. Wayne Gretzky (Edm.) 1981-82 = 142
4. Bryan Trottier (NYI) 1978-79 = 138
5. Mike Bossy (NYI) 1978-79 = 133

I'm fairly sure there are some players/seasons I've missed, however. If anyone knows others, please share.

Click to read more...

 

[billcook]

Guy Lafleur 1975-76 +130
Guy Lafleur 1976-77 +136
Guy Lafleur 1977-78 +129
Steve Shutt 1976-77 +120
Phil Esposito 1970-71 +142

 

[Big Phil]

Right away I thought of Bobby Clarke in 1976. He was on the ice for 164 goals for and 52 against. That's a 112 difference. He doesn't crack the top 5 though. Bill Barber in that same season is 105.

Guy Lafleur immediately comes to mind as well. These are his best:
1976 - 130
1977 - 136
1978 - 129

So he definitely unseats Bossy in the top 5 thanks to 1977.

Steve Shutt had a difference of 120 in 1977 as well. A total of 39 goals scored against him. It is worth noting he never killed penalties, therefore never had power play goals scored against him.

Phil Esposito is 142 in 1971. Tied for 3rd with Gretzky by my check in a single season.

Mario's is 114 in 1993. That's his best. By the way, I know people like to complain about Lemieux because he supposedly took "advantage" of power plays but even in a year where there have been some on here that like to point out that he was "only" +10 in 1996 here is the stark truth. Lemieux was on the ice for 197 goals for and 113 against in 1996. A total of 84. Not his best, or second best, but is there anyone that still wants to complain about his 1996 season? I'll take a guy who is on the ice an average of one goal per game more than when he's scored against.

Ray Bourque and Nick Lidstrom were on the ice way too much in every situation and did not have teams that scored at an insane pace either to make much of an impact here.

Currently Sidney Crosby's best was 93 in 2007.

Where as Ovechkin's best is 103 in 2010. Not bad, but pretty hard to crack this list.

 

[reckoning]

Top mark in 87-88? Mike Bullard
Top mark in 88-89? Rob Brown

This may be interesting to look at as a curiosity, but I hope nobody attaches any meaning to it. Anybody on a good team who plays on the powerplay and never kills penalties can rack up a high score easily.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

Somewhat surprisingly to me, Wayne Gretzky's best season-differential was 1981-82, which was neither the Oilers' best season or Gretzky's top plus/minus season. However, his differential was 142, possibly because he was scoring more on the power-play that year than subsequently (and he was rarely killing penalties at that stage). Gretzky was also at 122 in 1984-85 (in which season he had the highest plus/minus ever for a forward).

Doesn't this kind of put a dent into what value of total goal differential has as a tool for measurement? Certainly, Gretzky who dominated at all offensive aspects of the game was great, but a Gretzky who also became a frequent penalty killer just a couple years later would certainly be the more valuable player?

In 83-84, Gretzky posted 23 SH points, but he was on-ice for 31 PP goals against. The Oilers had 36 SH goals total, and league average was 12 SH goals. Let's assume that the 13 other SH goals for the Oilers is split normally (with 6 goals going to the second PK line), leaving 7 more goals for Gretzky's PK line (without Gretzky getting any points). Chances are that Gretzky was -1 on the PK in 83-84. At very worst, Gretzky was -8 as a frequent penalty-killer. Even using the worst-case, it's an impressive achievement (even if the whole "the best defense is a good offense" thing is kind of unconventional).

According to total goal differential, 83-84 Gretzky being a net -1 (probably) on the penalty kill is a negative. Using the worst-case scenario, Gretzky is penalized by -8 in total goal-differential... for killing penalties on top of his usual duties as an offensive first-line center.

Let's look at a more conventional example in Clarke from 75-76. He was on-ice for 30 PP goals against (out of the Flyers' total of 83). He had 7 SH points. The Flyers had 14 SH goals in total. For Clarke, let's assume the best-case scenario and say he was on-ice for every SH goal for the Flyers.

For killing penalties (as one of the best penalty killers in the NHL), at best, Clarke would be a net -16 according to total goal differential. By not killing penalties, Clarke would actually benefit in total goal differential while being a whole lot less helpful to his team.

Honestly, total goal differential is useless (in fact, worse than useless since it's potentially misleading) at determining overall player contributions. If you really want it to work, you would probably have to break the goal differentials at EV, PP, and PK situations down and compare each situation to league averages or something.

EDIT:

In 75-76, the average goal-differentials (assuming 2 PP and 2 PK lines) are:

EV: 0
PP: +29
PK: -29

In 83-84, the average goal-differentials are (again, assuming 2 PP and 2 PK lines):

EV: 0
PP: +31
PK: -31

 

[The Panther]

Thanks for the suggestions and points, everyone.

Yeah, I'm not suggesting that raw goals-for minus goals-against is the be all and end all; it's more of a statistical curiosity. I don't think, however, it's any less useful than plus/minus, which is an 'official' statistic (and used to have an associated award). In fact, I personally find these raw for/minus stats more useful than plus/minus in certain situations, including (in general) when looking at high-scoring forwards.

However, as I myself alluded to in the OP, a major consideration of the merit of the stat is whether a player kills penalties. It's presumably also harder for defencemen -- even if they play on really good, high-scoring teams -- to earn a high number if they are on the main "shut-down" unit against the opposition's best forwards, etc., because they're going to be scored against more.

Anyway, so far we seem to have:

1. Bobby Orr (Bos.) 1970-71 = 173
2. Larry Robinson (Mon.) 1976-77 = 144
3. Phil Esposito (Bos.) 1970-71 = 142
3. Wayne Gretzky (Edm.) 1981-82 = 142
5. Bryan Trottier (NYI) 1978-79 = 138
6. Guy Lafleur (Mon.) 1976-77 = 136
7. Mike Bossy (NYI) 1978-79 = 133


Wow, Ovechkin's reaching 103 in 2010 is quite remarkable, given the era. Did he kill penalties at all in that period?


How do you guys explain Boston's complete offensive dominance in 1970-71? I have never seen any record of a team dominating scoring like they did that season. Their team offense that season was 44% higher than the season prior, and then it would drop more than 17% the following season, so they certainly couldn't sustain it (even if they were still the top-scoring team). In 1970-71, Boston had the top 4 scorers in the League, and 7 of the top 9! Even Edmonton at its mid-80s peak did not dominate League scoring as Boston did during 1970-71.

 

[The Panther]

Doesn't this kind of put a dent into what value of total goal differential has as a tool for measurement? Certainly, Gretzky who dominated at all offensive aspects of the game was great, but a Gretzky who also became a frequent penalty killer just a couple years later would certainly be the more valuable player?

Oh, absolutely. But again I'm not suggesting there is inherent and non-contextual "merit" in the stats I'm requesting. They're just interesting stats.

I maintain that Gretzky's best overall season (if playoffs are included) is 1984-85, and his best regular season alone is either 1983-84 or 1984-85. Neither are his two highest points-totals, but 1984 was his highest PPG season and his largest-ever 'victory' in goals scored. In 1985, despite Messier's slow down and injuries, Gretzky was +98 and needed only 8 power-play goals to lead the NHL in goals, with 73. He killed penalties and turned plugger Mike Krushelnyski into a 43-goal All Star.

 

[Killion]

... How do you guys explain Boston's complete offensive dominance in 1970-71? I have never seen any record of a team dominating scoring like they did that season. Their team offense that season was 44% higher than the season prior, and then it would drop more than 17% the following season, so they certainly couldn't sustain it (even if they were still the top-scoring team). In 1970-71, Boston had the top 4 scorers in the League, and 7 of the top 9! Even Edmonton at its mid-80s peak did not dominate League scoring as Boston did during 1970-71.

Shocking... Absolutely Shocking TP.... Taken down... taken out... from essentially 68 on, heavily favored. Original "Bad Boys".... Yet, money on the table, they froze. Tough Guy Bostonians huh?...
Ya, not so much... Finickity Irish Wanderers more like. Lousy Bench Bosses, Players who crumbled like stale oatmeal cookies under pressure. Pathetic really. Couldve been so much more.

But then... that was the whole Deal with the Bruins... POSERS.

 

[The Panther]

But then... that was the whole Deal with the Bruins... POSERS.

So, to summarize, two Stanley Cups in three years makes the team "posers"...?

 

[Killion]

So, to summarize, two Stanley Cups in three years makes the team "posers"...?

Correct. A lot like the Flyer's who followed.... Or did you even think about that before you questioned me?

 

[The Panther]

Correct. A lot like the Flyer's who followed.... Or did you even think about that before you questioned me?

No, the Flyers won two Cups in two years. By your standards, they're merely "idiots" not "posers".

 

[Killion]

No, the Flyers won two Cups in two years. By your standards, they're merely "idiots" not "posers".

Nope. They were POSERS as well. Beyond Parent, Clarke & MacLeish.. essentially WWE come to life. Fake. Drama. The so called "Big Bad Bruins"... Same dealeo.

 

[Sens Rule]

The question is whether any goalie had a +173 better then Orr in a season. I don't have spreadsheets of numbers but I looked at Ken Dryden who would seem to be the most likely goalie to top 173. 75/76 allowed 121 goals in 62 games. I don't know how much the Habs scored for him.

 

[MXD]

The question is whether any goalie had a +173 better then Orr in a season. I don't have spreadsheets of numbers but I looked at Ken Dryden who would seem to be the most likely goalie to top 173. 75/76 allowed 121 goals in 62 games. I don't know how much the Habs scored for him.

In 76-77, Dryden gave 117 goals in 56 games (55 decisions).

To have a shot a +173, that would involve the Habs scoring 290 goals or more in those games. That would also involve them scoring 97 goals AT MOST in the reminding games (presumably 25 games, but it's more complicated than that).

It would require the Habs to score nearly one LESS goal per game with Larocque than they with Dryden to achieve this, and since Larocque typically had a somewhat easier workload... if anything, the Habs probably scored more with Larocque.

In short : it's extremely unlikely that Dryden did it in 76-77.

 

[MXD]

...THIS SAID.

I can think of one player (it's indeed a goalie) that had a better PER GAME goal differential in the NHL for a single season. He doesn't get to +173 due to seasons being shorter though.

That is, of course, Bill Durnan, 43-44.
(after verification, he did. Durnan played every game, and the Habs had a per game goal differential of +2.5)

 

[The Panther]

Those Montreal teams of the 1970s throw up some odd stats.

One that's a bit surprising to me is that Bob Gainey, in raw goals for/against, is a "minus" 95 for his career (though a +196 officially). Yeah, I get that he was the main shut-down guy and had all the hardest assignments with very little (if any) power-play time, so you're not expecting a huge 'plus' akin to Lafleur or whoever, but given the strength of most of the teams he played for I would have expected at least an overall "plus".

By contrast, Jacques Lemaire -- who, of course, was more of a scorer -- is a raw "plus" 686 for his not-overly-long career. Lemaire even reached a raw "plus" 95 in 1973, which not surprisingly was his career season (then again, as pointed out above, Mike Bullard of all people reached "plus" 96 in 1988).

Six times Lafleur was better than a raw "plus" 100 in a single season -- twice more than Orr. Even Gretzky "did" it only five times (but missed a sixth by only 2 goals).

Paul Coffey was over raw "plus" 100 twice -- and neither were Norris Trophy seasons (1983 and 1984).

Bernie Nicholls' "raw" goals-for/against was actually better in 1985 (100 points scored) than it was in 1989 (150 points scored). Likewise, Steve Yzerman's was better in 1988 than it was in 1989 when he scored 155 points. (He was also "better" in 1984, 1987, 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, and 2000 than he was in 1989.)

 

[VanIslander]

never mind

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

What is the data source for these numbers?

 

[Big Phil]

Shocking... Absolutely Shocking TP.... Taken down... taken out... from essentially 68 on, heavily favored. Original "Bad Boys".... Yet, money on the table, they froze. Tough Guy Bostonians huh?...
Ya, not so much... Finickity Irish Wanderers more like. Lousy Bench Bosses, Players who crumbled like stale oatmeal cookies under pressure. Pathetic really. Couldve been so much more.

But then... that was the whole Deal with the Bruins... POSERS.

I don't remember them crumbling in 1970 or 1972. Other than that, Montreal was still better in 1969, they should have won in 1971 but to look at the roster of the Habs that year you can't hold it against them too badly. 1973 Esposito got injured in the beginning of the playoffs and I will agree they probably should have found a way to beat the Flyers in 1974. It was those pesky Game 2s in 1971 and 1974 that they couldn't close.

However a team that won two Cups in three years had to have done a lot of things right. They also had the best record in hockey in three different years around that time. Who were these players that crumbled like "stale oatmeal cookies"? Not Orr and Esposito I hope? I will agree with you on the coaches though.

Nope. They were POSERS as well. Beyond Parent, Clarke & MacLeish.. essentially WWE come to life. Fake. Drama. The so called "Big Bad Bruins"... Same dealeo.

Hmmm. Look Killion, those Flyers teams made the final three years in a row. They lost to the 1976 Habs. I will admit that they are "posers" in the way that they fall short of a dynasty but if that's the case we have a very, very short list of great teams that don't make the cut because they weren't quite a dynasty. You are forgetting about some names here. How about Barber? Leach? To this day Leach is the only forward to win the Conn Smythe in a losing cause. Still holds the record for goals in a playoff year. These Flyers teams combined skill and goonery in a way no team did otherwise. But to not call them talented is short sighted. They were talented. You can't beat the 1974 Bruins and 1975 Sabres without talent.

 

[The Panther]

I just noticed that Jagr reached a difference of "plus" 99 in 2006, which is also pretty awesome for the recent era, and was the second-best differential of his entire career at age 33 (after 1996 with Pittsburgh, when his differential was "plus" 103).

(Joe Thornton's differential that year was "plus" 81, FYI.)

 

[Big Phil]

I just noticed that Jagr reached a difference of "plus" 99 in 2006, which is also pretty awesome for the recent era, and was the second-best differential of his entire career at age 33 (after 1996 with Pittsburgh, when his differential was "plus" 103).

(Joe Thornton's differential that year was "plus" 81, FYI.)

So post lockout is Ovechkin's 103 goal difference the best in 2010? Crosby didn't have a better differential than that. Malkin is not even close to that. Datsyuk falls short. Ditto the Sedins.

 

[authentic]

Anyone have Forsberg's best?

 

[Big Phil]

Anyone have Forsberg's best?

His best year was in 2003. 138 goals for, 42 goals against. A difference of +96. Not bad, still not quite Ovechkin's best though. The biggest reason for this is not killing penalties anymore. I don't know why, but he stopped doing this starting in 2003. He was on the ice shorthanded prior to that. So this may have inflated that stat more than you think although he did lead the NHL that year in plus/minus with +52. Just strangely never killed penalties. Then again neither did Ovechkin.