BCHL adding 5 Alberta teams

[Tom ServoMST3K]

This is all just opinion and ZERO is fact or facts provided.

It's happening....and it will happen. Hockey Canada is likely pushing this as well to try and quash any other leagues going rogue. The goal for all top Junior A players is an NCAA scholarship or a move up to CHL.

Scouts will all be at CHL games trying to recruit top talent....not going to Kindersley Sask to find a kid.

Talked to Kevin Saurette (league commish of MJHL) yesterday - He was very candid he expects this move to be made soon.

As for what that means for leagues like the MJHL/SJHL, I'm not sure (and neither was Kevin). I've always been of the opinion that the players are the players. BC's move was pointless, because it really won't have a major effect anywhere.

Making CHL players eligible for NCAA is gonna change that opinion, much to the detriment of the leagues right now.

 

[oldunclehue]

Talked to Kevin Saurette (league commish of MJHL) yesterday - He was very candid he expects this move to be made soon.

And he would be very very concerned about it. MJHL is already viewed as the "worst" of the leagues west of Ontario. How do you keep top end talent in the league if they can go to CHL and have the same goals or more opportunity.

The only way to see things work would be if the MJHL became a league for 16-17-18 year olds and teams were farm clubs for WHL teams. Develop them and move them up. Will ruin AAA leagues, but I don't see any other way.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

And he would be very very concerned about it. MJHL is already viewed as the "worst" of the leagues west of Ontario. How do you keep top end talent in the league if they can go to CHL and have the same goals or more opportunity.

The only way to see things work would be if the MJHL became a league for 16-17-18 year olds and teams were farm clubs for WHL teams. Develop them and move them up. Will ruin AAA leagues, but I don't see any other way.

It's impossible to say, and the second order effects (a vast improvement in Canadian College hockey, for example) could make it a moot point for a league like the MJHL.

 

[oldunclehue]

It's impossible to say, and the second order effects (a vast improvement in Canadian College hockey, for example) could make it a moot point for a league like the MJHL.

We will have to wait and see what the rules are for CHL/NCAA when its released. But if I'm hearing right, the NCAA will simply allow CHL players to be eligible to play NCAA. This is all very positive for the CHL as it will save them money towards their current "scholarship" system.

The NCAA will make their league even more competitive thus more entertaining and more money coming in from fans, sponsors and alumni.

The CHL can still give out their "scholarships" to players to go to Usports or University in Canada.

I don't see MJHL players competing with that for spots on Usport teams. The odd one will still have a chance at making a team, but the same system will fill those spots with aged out CHL players first.

 

[Yukon Joe]

So I totally understand why the CHL would want such a move, and I think they've been pushing for it for years, But I'm just not quite sure the NCAA makes the change. Yes, NCAA athletes are now allowed to profit of their NIL (Name, image, likeness) - but that's not the same as being paid to play, which is what the NCAA has always considered the CHL to do.

But yes - if that does happen it would make things tougher for Junior A teams. Right now that can be their big selling point - come with us because you'll stioll be NCAA eligible.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

We will have to wait and see what the rules are for CHL/NCAA when its released. But if I'm hearing right, the NCAA will simply allow CHL players to be eligible to play NCAA. This is all very positive for the CHL as it will save them money towards their current "scholarship" system.

The NCAA will make their league even more competitive thus more entertaining and more money coming in from fans, sponsors and alumni.

The CHL can still give out their "scholarships" to players to go to Usports or University in Canada.

I don't see MJHL players competing with that for spots on Usport teams. The odd one will still have a chance at making a team, but the same system will fill those spots with aged out CHL players first.

When this rule comes down, it's gonna have an insane immediate impact, and the ripple effects probably won't be fully understood until a decade later.

It's going to so fundamentally change the hockey landscape in North America, I hesitate to speculate on what the totality of changes will be - and IMO the range of outcomes is insane.

EDIT: and this news maybe informs the BCHL's move? A desperation heave to try and keep relevance for a league that has staked their future on being a development pipeline to the NCAA?

 

[MeHateHe]

2nd tier Junior A in rural areas will be dead. Sad for smaller communities that own teams and support them now.

I think the rumours of the demise of Junior A is greatly exaggerated.

However, it's likely that this leads to a re-organization of things, perhaps to a more structured environment, as things were in the 80s, when there was a path from Junior B to Junior A, and a path from Junior A to major junior. Still lots of socks to come out of the wash, so speculating is a bit of a mug's game.

Not sure if it was just idle "rink-talk" or actually true.

All rink talk is true. Like, my kid scored 40 goals in his last game in U-18 as a 15-year-old but politics kept him from becoming a star.

 

[oldunclehue]

I think the rumours of the demise of Junior A is greatly exaggerated.

However, it's likely that this leads to a re-organization of things, perhaps to a more structured environment, as things were in the 80s, when there was a path from Junior B to Junior A, and a path from Junior A to major junior. Still lots of socks to come out of the wash, so speculating is a bit of a mug's game.

I am very much tied in to a Jr A organization in Manitoba and its inner workings. The organization requires paying fans, lots of sponsorship and players to pay roughly $2000 for a travel fee.

I agree the effects won't be totally known for about a decade, but the impact will be immediately felt next year. Top draft picks, top end prospects for the MJHL teams will now be pushed to the CHL by advisors/agents and parents. It's a no brainer....go the CHL route, pay nothing to play, play in the top league in north american for your age and have a shot at either NCAA, USports or pro after you are done vs Pay to play in a third tier Junior A league, minimal scouting, less competitive, less desirable places to play and travel too, far less opportunity for advancement.

This will eventually lead to a less competitive league, even if they do a "super league" it still doesn't capture the top end junior A players as they will go to the best league they can if it means they have more opportunity. Fans will slowly stop coming and sponsors will notice and then financially teams will be worse than they are already.

I know I'm taking the negative stance here, but I see the work and dedication of volunteers and the hopes and dreams of kids in my community suddenly having the rug pulled from under them.....and if it happens a lot less chance for little Johnny to advance up the ranks in hockey.

 

[hockeyguy0022]

I don't think the NCAA/CHL makes much of a difference in AJ/SJ/MJ... most of the MAAA players are 15-17, so more 16 and 17 year olds will enter the league, which I've noticed is a trend anyway, almost no 16 year olds play in junior A in those leagues, and few 17 year olds.

Could make midget AAA into 15/16 year olds anyway...

There's usually only 2-5 players on those rosters who could step up to major junior, which could fill by 17 and one or two 16 year olds.

Wouldn't really effect too much outside BC compared to current. IMO.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I am very much tied in to a Jr A organization in Manitoba and its inner workings. The organization requires paying fans, lots of sponsorship and players to pay roughly $2000 for a travel fee.

I agree the effects won't be totally known for about a decade, but the impact will be immediately felt next year. Top draft picks, top end prospects for the MJHL teams will now be pushed to the CHL by advisors/agents and parents. It's a no brainer....go the CHL route, pay nothing to play, play in the top league in north american for your age and have a shot at either NCAA, USports or pro after you are done vs Pay to play in a third tier Junior A league, minimal scouting, less competitive, less desirable places to play and travel too, far less opportunity for advancement.

This will eventually lead to a less competitive league, even if they do a "super league" it still doesn't capture the top end junior A players as they will go to the best league they can if it means they have more opportunity. Fans will slowly stop coming and sponsors will notice and then financially teams will be worse than they are already.

I know I'm taking the negative stance here, but I see the work and dedication of volunteers and the hopes and dreams of kids in my community suddenly having the rug pulled from under them.....and if it happens a lot less chance for little Johnny to advance up the ranks in hockey.

The upside though - you would think that if it leads to more Canadian kids playing in the NCAA that should open up more spots back in CHL teams.

 

[rsteen]

So I totally understand why the CHL would want such a move, and I think they've been pushing for it for years, But I'm just not quite sure the NCAA makes the change. Yes, NCAA athletes are now allowed to profit of their NIL (Name, image, likeness) - but that's not the same as being paid to play, which is what the NCAA has always considered the CHL to do.

But yes - if that does happen it would make things tougher for Junior A teams. Right now that can be their big selling point - come with us because you'll stioll be NCAA eligible.

Why would the CHL be the ones pushing for it? They have the agreement with the NHL to keep their 18 and 19 year olds out of the AHL, so why would they want them to be allowed to go to the NCAA instead?
On the other hand I can totally see why the NCAA might want to poach blue chip but not quite NHL ready prospects out of the CHL.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Why would the CHL be the ones pushing for it? They have the agreement with the NHL to keep their 18 and 19 year olds out of the AHL, so why would they want them to be allowed to go to the NCAA instead?
On the other hand I can totally see why the NCAA might want to poach blue chip but not quite NHL ready prospects out of the CHL.

Because right now if a kid has aspirations of playing NCAA hockey they have to turn down CHL and go play Junior A.

 

[joestevens29]

Because right now if a kid has aspirations of playing NCAA hockey they have to turn down CHL and go play Junior A.

I guess the question is though is the CHL going to allow those kids to leave the CHL for NCAA at 17 or 18 or 19? They are already doing their best so that 18 and 19 year olds aren't leaving the CHL for AHL, so you'd think they'd try stop kids from jumping ship to the NCAA until their eligibility is done in the CHL

If that is the case I don't really know that it has as much impact as some are saying in this thread.

The top prospects would still prefer the current model that Junior A has.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I guess the question is though is the CHL going to allow those kids to leave the CHL for NCAA at 17 or 18 or 19? They are already doing their best so that 18 and 19 year olds aren't leaving the CHL for AHL, so you'd think they'd try stop kids from jumping ship to the NCAA until their eligibility is done in the CHL

If that is the case I don't really know that it has as much impact as some are saying in this thread.

The top prospects would still prefer the current model that Junior A has.

Why? Getting paid to play hockey in CHL, versus having to pay to play in Junior A?

 

[joestevens29]

Why? Getting paid to play hockey in CHL, versus having to pay to play in Junior A?

How is that changing with this new agreement?

The best of the best are still going to want flexibility to jump ship whenever they can. Is that something the new agreement is going to allow?

If they are able to do so, then that's going to suck for CHL hockey that all drafted players can just go to college immediately. Going to make the CHL worse not better.

 

[MeHateHe]

I am very much tied in to a Jr A organization in Manitoba and its inner workings. The organization requires paying fans, lots of sponsorship and players to pay roughly $2000 for a travel fee.

I agree the effects won't be totally known for about a decade, but the impact will be immediately felt next year. Top draft picks, top end prospects for the MJHL teams will now be pushed to the CHL by advisors/agents and parents. It's a no brainer....go the CHL route, pay nothing to play, play in the top league in north american for your age and have a shot at either NCAA, USports or pro after you are done vs Pay to play in a third tier Junior A league, minimal scouting, less competitive, less desirable places to play and travel too, far less opportunity for advancement.

This will eventually lead to a less competitive league, even if they do a "super league" it still doesn't capture the top end junior A players as they will go to the best league they can if it means they have more opportunity. Fans will slowly stop coming and sponsors will notice and then financially teams will be worse than they are already.

I know I'm taking the negative stance here, but I see the work and dedication of volunteers and the hopes and dreams of kids in my community suddenly having the rug pulled from under them.....and if it happens a lot less chance for little Johnny to advance up the ranks in hockey.

This is good information, and I agree that change is coming, but non-majior junior hockey has a lot of inherent strengths. At some point, (surely surely) folks in Junior A are going to wise up to the need to do effective marketing. The old plan was to basically set up shop, come up with a clever logo and ... ??? .... profit! Teams need to get people in the community talking about the product , and gone are the days when you could rely on local newspapers to get your message out. The teams that do that will survive and thrive. The ones that don't will not. I don't, for the record, think that boils down to smaller markets falling by the wayside (although obviously Penticton has an advantage over, say, Weyburn).

Why would the CHL be the ones pushing for it? They have the agreement with the NHL to keep their 18 and 19 year olds out of the AHL, so why would they want them to be allowed to go to the NCAA instead?
On the other hand I can totally see why the NCAA might want to poach blue chip but not quite NHL ready prospects out of the CHL.

I'd be thinking the CHL would be looking for a way to keep players from jumping to NCAA while they still have junior eligibility; perhaps the two sides have come to a no-poaching rule, where CHL teams would agree to not take NCAA players except under certain scenarios. So if there's an agreement coming, those questions would certainly have come up in discussions.

If done right, there will be good paths for players depending on their place in their development process. Players who will benefit from more time in skill development would absolutely do better in NCAA simply because of the lower game/practice ratio. Players who need more time on physical development may be better off playing Juinor A before moving up. Players who might be on a fast track to pro before they hit the age of 20 might be better off in major junior.

Of course it won't be that clean, and of course NCAA will still try to attract more draft-eligibles. If this just turns into a pipeline where NCAA rosters are loaded with a bunch of 22-year-old ex-major junior guys, I don't know who really benefits from that? I'm not sure that's better for the NCAA if they wind up pumping out 24-year-old graduates who attract a lot of free-agent interest. Anyone remember Chris Cichocki? Dallas Gaume?

I think the loser in this might be the USHL, who loses a special status of being the top junior league in North America that can still put players on a path to an NCAA scholarship. What's the benefit to Celebrini riding the bus in the USHL instead of riding a bus in London? Having said that, if a kid gets drafted by, say Prince George, maybe he'd rather go play in Waterloo? So that competition changes as well.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Here is what would likely happen if this went through. My big assumption is to retain ncaa eligibility, players can’t have signed an nhl deal. This is how it works with current ncaa players. They are drafted but none have signed a pro deal or they forfeit remaining eligibility.

Best 16/17 year olds in Canada will go CHL to a greater extent. Huge death blow to BCHL. The Steel route still isn’t entirely out of the question if they can play ncaa in their draft year since that’s just as much about avoiding a Mickey Mouse organization as it is eligibility.

Drafted players will have to decide, stay in CHL or go to NCAA. NHL teams will have to worry about CHL drafted prospects being able to leverage looming free agency and likely start making promises of roster spots and ice time to more kids down the line to get them to sign before they are ready. A blow to marginal older players trying to break in and hold their spot.

There will be a large exodus of high-end 18 and 19 year olds to the ncaa. Players that are in demand and can slot in on good teams while still teenagers. NIL, an American college education, high end teams, it’ll be hard to pass up for players not ready for the nhl.

There will be a bit of a logjam/holding pattern for recruiting as spots will be held open for kids that may turn pro without signing their letter of intent, downstream effect of more kids in the ncaa sphere waiting around to see where they land. Number of NCAA D1 teams would certainly have room to expand, but that’s really on individual athletic departments.

With the exodus is the high end 18/19 year olds from the CHL, they will need to fill their rosters with more Junior A players. Without any ncaa benefit, Junior A will have to firmly accord its place as CHL minor league teams. They may become officially affiliated. Many teams likely won’t make it and a consolidation is inevitable.

With more Junior A 18 and 19 year olds graduating to the CHL, surviving Junior A teams will need to fill their rosters with more 16/17 year olds. Tricky here because these players are still in high school which is a big part of why so many generally stay in AAA in their hometowns. But it’s inevitable for the Junior A -> CHL -> NCAA pipeline as I described.

As a result of Junior A teams needing more 16/17 year olds, U18 AAA will be heavily raided. Many teams will fold and number will consolidate down. Firmly a dead end spot.

USports is a major loser. Any decent CHL player will snag an ncaa scholarship by their end of their junior eligibility. In addition to the American college experience, they can remain chasing the pro dream while getting their degrees so anybody with the option will go that way. The CHL saves big money on not funding their scholarship program anymore. USports teams may collapse with only a few more popular ones surviving. Quality of players goes down in a if way without the steady stream of CHL graduates.

NCAA itself is the obvious winner but USA Hockey may be cautious when it comes to potentially losing American kids to the CHL instead of playing in the USHL. They’ve done a great job keeping kids domestic in recent years and they may not want that trend to go back. Not sure what sort of seat USA Hockey has with NCAA Hockey decisions but they have been closely partnered.

BCHL and USports are big losers. CHL is fairly neutral with some good/some bad things to consider. More of a net negative for Junior A and U18 AAA in the grand scheme of things.

 

[jetsmooseice]

Here is what would likely happen if this went through. My big assumption is to retain ncaa eligibility, players can’t have signed an nhl deal. This is how it works with current ncaa players. They are drafted but none have signed a pro deal or they forfeit remaining eligibility.

[redacted]

BCHL and USports are big losers. CHL is fairly neutral with some good/some bad things to consider. More of a net negative for Junior A and U18 AAA in the grand scheme of things.

Great analysis. So the BCHL reverts from a "super junior A" quasi-major junior league into a humble junior A settling exclusively for NCAA/CHL castoffs.

You are right, U Sports loses its captive talent pool of talented ex CHLers who want to keep playing but can't go pro. I wonder if that might be the end of the line for university hockey in some conferences... Atlantic Canada seems to embrace it a bit but I know out west it probably costs a fortune to run with all the travel and generally speaking, the communities could not be any less interested in the product. The Bisons are lucky to get 200 people out to a game. A lot of the other CW teams aren't much better in that regard. And that's with a pretty good product overall, a lot of former high end CHLers including some drafted guys play in that league.

Kind of sad if that's the end of the line for U Sports hockey in its current incarnation, but nothing lasts forever.

 

[jetsmooseice]

This is good information, and I agree that change is coming, but non-majior junior hockey has a lot of inherent strengths. At some point, (surely surely) folks in Junior A are going to wise up to the need to do effective marketing. The old plan was to basically set up shop, come up with a clever logo and ... ??? .... profit! Teams need to get people in the community talking about the product , and gone are the days when you could rely on local newspapers to get your message out. The teams that do that will survive and thrive. The ones that don't will not. I don't, for the record, think that boils down to smaller markets falling by the wayside (although obviously Penticton has an advantage over, say, Weyburn).

I think in many ways communities have spoken. As people have pointed out, people have entertainment options now that never existed before. Not just Netflix and cable TV but things like online gaming, online shopping (now even someone in a remote area can buy niche hobby items so they can spend their time pursuing an interest that was previously inaccessible). The willingness to go and watch a bunch of kids play hockey 32 times a winter in a chilly arena just might not be there anymore. In terms of the MJ, Selkirk has a big arena but there are seldom more than a few hundred people there anymore. People just have other things going on.

Part of the issue is that junior A lacks sizzle. Every WHL team has a hot prospect once in a while that gets people excited. Certainly Bedard was a monumental attraction. That doesn't exist in junior A, it's a fairly anonymous rotation of kids every year. I can appreciate why it's tough to get people interested in that when anyone who wants to watch hockey can stay home and watch all the big stars on their massive 4K TV.

 

[Corso]

There will be a large exodus of high-end 18 and 19 year olds to the ncaa. Players that are in demand and can slot in on good teams while still teenagers. NIL, an American college education, high end teams, it’ll be hard to pass up for players not ready for the nhl.

Only if the CHL were to change it's standard players contract agreement and you would have to ask, why would they? As of now, foreign nationals are not allowed to sign any NIL deals while on a student visa.

My feeling on all of this is that the NCAA will become even older, the bottom and mid tier programs improve their level of play and the expanded player pool will allow for a few more D-1 teams to join. For the high end teams, it would be neutral in the near term but possibly detrimental in the long term.

 

[Al48]

There should be an “import” cap so NCAA teams can only have a certain number of ex CHL players. This would really affect young US players, the USHL and the NAHL otherwise. People saying the NCAA can expand D1, but that takes time and willing funding.

 

[Corso]

There should be an “import” cap so NCAA teams can only have a certain number of ex CHL players. This would really affect young US players, the USHL and the NAHL otherwise. People saying the NCAA can expand D1, but that takes time and willing funding.

There would be no cap since imposing a cap will only bring about further lawsuits.

I think there are a few misconceptions here as to why this is happening (and going to happen)

This has very little to do with Hockey Canada and their feud with the BCHL. The NCAA, as a governing body, views hockey as a "minor" non-revenue generating sport. They have little to no concern as to what Hockey Canada considers a sanctioned league or not.

This is not being initiated by the CHL. The CHL is more than comfortable with its model and probably has no desire to enact wholesale changes.

This is not being driven by USA Hockey. In fact USA Hockey is probably very opposed to this development as they know this would have a detrimental impact on its domestic Junior A leagues

This is not even being driven by NCAA D-1 college coaches. Most are probably on the fence about this. Some would be for this change (probably the majority of coaches in the mid to lower tier programs), others vehemently opposed (think Michigan, B.U. ect).

All of the above participants may try to influence the process as to how this comes about but will ultimately have no control or power to stop it.

This is about the courts and how the NCAA will not go into a court room and try to defend a concept that claims all CHL players are ineligible because they play with and against signed professional players when the very same body allows European players who have played in professional leagues, CHL players who have played in the USHL but somehow through magic did not ruin the eligibility of said USHL players, and allows it's players to come together for national tournaments with actual NHL players and compete against other NHL players.

They would lose that court case and they know it. The NCAA is under intense scrutiny and legal pressure. Its new commissioner, Charlie Baker, is actually calling for the direct annual compensation of 30k to each "student" athlete in the power 5 (or 4 now) conferences. His ultimate aim is to separate the generating from the non-generating schools and sports. What you thought the NCAA was is no longer. U.S. college hockey will do it's best to promote its interests but at the end of the day, they are just a bystander as monied powerbrokers (power conferences, agents and lawyers) rewrite the rules that end an outdated concept of amateurism.

The BCHL used it's shot....to challenge both the USHL and the CHL (and they probably would have had some success) but the ground beneath its feet has shifted and this leads me to speculate that Hockey Canada knew better than the BCHL that massive changes were coming so why bother even negotiating.

 

[WarriorofTime]

This is not being driven by USA Hockey. In fact USA Hockey is probably very opposed to this development as they know this would have a detrimental impact on its domestic Junior A leagues

Hate to nitpick but the USHL is not a “domestic Junior A league”. It exists outside of Hockey Canada where the term “Junior A” comes from.

 

[Yukon Joe]

This is about the courts and how the NCAA will not go into a court room and try to defend a concept that claims all CHL players are ineligible because they play with and against signed professional players when the very same body allows European players who have played in professional leagues, CHL players who have played in the USHL but somehow through magic did not ruin the eligibility of said USHL players, and allows it's players to come together for national tournaments with actual NHL players and compete against other NHL players.

They would lose that court case and they know it. The NCAA is under intense scrutiny and legal pressure. Its new commissioner, Charlie Baker, is actually calling for the direct annual compensation of 30k to each "student" athlete in the power 5 (or 4 now) conferences. His ultimate aim is to separate the generating from the non-generating schools and sports. What you thought the NCAA was is no longer. U.S. college hockey will do it's best to promote its interests but at the end of the day, they are just a bystander as monied powerbrokers (power conferences, agents and lawyers) rewrite the rules that end an outdated concept of amateurism.

Thanks for giving an explanation about why this would happen, because I struggled to see why the NCAA would want it, and how it would have anything to do with the lawsuits that led to NIL payments.

No idea if what you're saying will come to pass, but at least I can understand the argument better.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Thanks for giving an explanation about why this would happen, because I struggled to see why the NCAA would want it, and how it would have anything to do with the lawsuits that led to NIL payments.

No idea if what you're saying will come to pass, but at least I can understand the argument better.

But is there no court case of a CHL player trying to get into NCAA, as far as I'm aware? Hard to cite that as a driving impetus, and the timing with the BCHL breakway and now raiding the best teams in the best remaining Hockey Canada Junior A League leaves me suspicious that a hypothetical court case out there is what is actually driving the discussion. None of this has actually been confirmed by anyone right now and it seems to exist only in the space of rumors.

I can't find the specific regulation as to why CHL players are considered professional. Some random internet site says because some players have an NHL deal, doesn't really make sense as players that have appeared in the SHL (where the entire league minus those guys have professional deals) have played in NCAA, like Tom Willander who played 2 SHL games last year and is at Boston University this year. One sentence on "collegehockey.inc" can't be taken as definitive (that's the lawyer in me speaking I guess).

This Allan Walsh tweet cites the stipend as a "farce" reason. In a follow-up he notes that the reasoning has never been clearly delineated.





All we really definitively know is the NCAA considers CHL players professional, but it doesn't look like it's gotten into the weeds on the "why" of that is the case. If that system is going to change, I would expect clarification on what is/isn't allowed for a player to play in the CHL while retaining NCAA eligibility and some level of differentiation between "professionals" and "non-professionals" in the CHL.