Balsillie/Phoenix part IV

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Bitterman

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Dec 12, 2007
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Wow, that's incredible. I just spent the last hour slacking off from work and doing the math on Sabres losses if Hamilton gets the team.

Someone in the Thread Part III claimed that a Hamilton franchise would actually help the Sabres, because it would mean 20% of their schedule is against Toronto and Hamilton. I'd adamantly dispute that.

Three big-time rivalry games at home vs Hamilton cannot compensate for a loss of fans for the other 38 games.


Let's say the Sabres average attendance is 17,000 (It's been over 18,000 the last three years). That's 697,000 tickets sold. If 10% buy Hamilton tickets instead, it's a loss of 69,700 tickets. And with a 18,620 seat arena, the Sabres can only sell 55,860 tickets for three games vs Hamilton.

Plus 90% of their 17,000 average attendance means 15,300 tickets already sold to remaining Sabres fans for each game. Traveling Hamilton fans could buy only 3,320 per game for three games, or 10,000 total tickets.


The percentage of fans they'd lose to Hamilton is debateable. The real question is "How many can they afford to lose to Hamilton?"


Even if the Sabres only lose 0.8 PERCENT of ticket sales to Hamilton, the Sabres lose 5,576 tickets for the season, and have only have 5,268 available seats for Hamilton games

But Hamilton wouldn't replace a team on the Sabres' schedule that only drew 17,000 per game. If Hamilton replaces Boston (AVG attendance at Buffalo last season: 18,450) there's only 510 available tickets for Hamilton fans.

That means Buffalo can only afford to lose 510 total tickets all season long to would-be Hamilton fans, 0.07 percent of a 17,000 average sales

And if Hamilton was kept in the Western Conference, the Sabres could only lose 0.02 percent of their ticket buyers and recoup that loss in home games vs Hamilton. That's 134 total tickets, or just FOUR full season ticket holders. And who has just one season ticket? That could be TWO CUSTOMERS. (Oh, and the schedule doesn't guarantee Buffalo to every West team at home each year).

At last year's Sabres attendance marks (18,531 AVG, 759,798 total), a divisional Hamilton rivarly cannot replace a loss of even just 300 TOTAL tickets lost to fans who go to a Hamilton game instead.

Nice math yet fundamentally flawed.

May I ask how many tickets would be lost if Hamilton doesn't get a team and Canadians boycott Buffalo? Your assuming Canadians wouldn't blink an eye and keep coming over the border to see the team that denied them a franchise.

The reality is fans in the area will have more choice and Buffalo will still be a cheaper ticket without lowering ticket prices. Not only will you get the same or more Canadians buying tickets when Hamilton, Toronto & Montreal come to town you'll still get Canadians buying tickets depending on who the opponent is.

The reason we're now hearing Buffalo isn't greatly opposed is because they can't say "No" to a team in Hamilton without it hurting them badly and a division rivalry can only be good for business.
 

Egil

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Mar 6, 2002
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Wow, that's incredible. I just spent the last hour slacking off from work and doing the math on Sabres losses if Hamilton gets the team.

Someone in the Thread Part III claimed that a Hamilton franchise would actually help the Sabres, because it would mean 20% of their schedule is against Toronto and Hamilton. I'd adamantly dispute that.

Three big-time rivalry games at home vs Hamilton cannot compensate for a loss of fans for the other 38 games.


Let's say the Sabres average attendance is 17,000 (It's been over 18,000 the last three years). That's 697,000 tickets sold. If 10% buy Hamilton tickets instead, it's a loss of 69,700 tickets. And with a 18,620 seat arena, the Sabres can only sell 55,860 tickets for three games vs Hamilton.

Plus 90% of their 17,000 average attendance means 15,300 tickets already sold to remaining Sabres fans for each game. Traveling Hamilton fans could buy only 3,320 per game for three games, or 10,000 total tickets.


The percentage of fans they'd lose to Hamilton is debateable. The real question is "How many can they afford to lose to Hamilton?"


Even if the Sabres only lose 0.8 PERCENT of ticket sales to Hamilton, the Sabres lose 5,576 tickets for the season, and have only have 5,268 available seats for Hamilton games

But Hamilton wouldn't replace a team on the Sabres' schedule that only drew 17,000 per game. If Hamilton replaces Boston (AVG attendance at Buffalo last season: 18,450) there's only 510 available tickets for Hamilton fans.

That means Buffalo can only afford to lose 510 total tickets all season long to would-be Hamilton fans, 0.07 percent of a 17,000 average sales

And if Hamilton was kept in the Western Conference, the Sabres could only lose 0.02 percent of their ticket buyers and recoup that loss in home games vs Hamilton. That's 134 total tickets, or just FOUR full season ticket holders. And who has just one season ticket? That could be TWO CUSTOMERS. (Oh, and the schedule doesn't guarantee Buffalo to every West team at home each year).

At last year's Sabres attendance marks (18,531 AVG, 759,798 total), a divisional Hamilton rivarly cannot replace a loss of even just 300 TOTAL tickets lost to fans who go to a Hamilton game instead.

#1: 0.8% of overall ticket sales is like 4% of Ontario ticket holders (using 20% overall number). Buffalo will still be closer for many current ticket holders from Ontario. I suspect (though I don't know), that the majority of Canadian Sabres ticket holders come from Fort Erie, St. Catherines and Niagra Falls. All of these locations are still closer to Buffalo than to Hamilton. So while I can see them losing the 4%, I don't think they lose over 10%.

#2: Buffalo charges vastly different prices for tickets depending on the opponent. Those games against Toronto cost over twice as much as those against Boston. So they can afford to lose more than what you calculated and still break even.

Having said all that, clearly, a team in say K/W poses MUCH less of a threat to the Sabres than Hamilton. That is another hour away, and is unlikely to affect more than 50 ticket holders. But I don't think Hamilton is a huge threat to the Sabres, but it is something that I would be concerned about if I owned the Sabres.
 

Northern Dancer

The future ain't what it used to be.
Mar 2, 2002
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slow down there a second .....




Rim has 13,000 employees worldwide


how many jobs basillie responsible for here in canada?alot

how much does this guy give back to charity and Ontario community...hundreds of millions.....



i got no problem with the govt considering helping jim .

If you have no problem with the Government giving Balsillie a 120 million dollar subsidy to get an NHL franchise then good for you. I disagree.

As for Balsillie giving 300 million to charity, you are aware that is a tax scheme (dodge) aren't you?
 
Nov 13, 2006
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I don't care how he does it, I don't care if my tax dollars go towards renovations of a stadium.

I just want a team in Hamilton and another team in Canada.
He puts it in Hamilton all the better, downtown needs to be brought into the 21st century. Getting a NHL team would help would be the stepping stone needed to stimulate the local economy.

I'd buy season tickets too.

My hat is off to you sir. This is one of the few truly honest posts in all four threads on this topic. Instead of arguing that Phoenix doesn't deserve a team or that Hamilton does deserve a team, you said I WANT A TEAM!!!!

Bravo!
 

Bitterman

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Dec 12, 2007
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I was in the courtroom when RIM's attorney asked for the judge to get involved in the TV contract and territorial rights issues. The judge basically said he felt he didn't have jurisdiction there.

I'm pretty sure it's documented in RIM's filings. Mouser would know better than me exactly where.

A Bankruptcy judge doesn't have jurisdiction. Then again, GB thought he bought control of the Yotes for 30mm so I guess it doesn't hurt to ask ;)
 
Nov 13, 2006
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mod edit: deleted qmp

I'm just trying to understand what you're saying.I'm pretty sure you have a point. I am not trying to dog you in any way.

Is it:

Modifying the lease is not much different than moving the team?

Is it:

It's not fair to modify the lease for a new owner?

Is it something else?
 
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Bitterman

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Dec 12, 2007
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The point is he asked for it therefore indicating he has no inclination to pay Buffalo or Toronto.

Who would willingly pay millions if they didn't have to? He can float a trial balloon just like Bettman & Daly did when they claimed they controlled the franchise for chump change. At the end of the day, Buffalo and Toronto will get taken care of... but if they get greedy and kill it Buffalo will pay a steep price.
 

Egil

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I'm just trying to understand what you're saying.I'm pretty sure you have a point. I am not trying to dog you in any way.

Is it:

Modifying the lease is not much different than moving the team?

Is it:

It's not fair to modify the lease for a new owner?

Is it something else?

From way the **** back in the previous thread, my point was how do you compare two offers, one that moved the team, and one that renegotiated the lease. The answers I got (and I was satisfied by them), was that the judge makes a subjective decision as to which offer is best for all of the creditors.

In here, I have no idea why you can't get what I am saying. It has nothing to do with fairness, just semantics. You claimed my statement that nobody wants to buy the team with the current lease was false, since renegotiating the lease is like keeping the current lease. I felt that was lawyerspeak, as you admit that yes, a renegotiated lease is required. I don't understand what is so ****ing difficult to understand about this.
 

Egil

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Yet it is in the offer. Without those terms, Balsillie's offer is technically void.

My understanding is that the Lawyers for Balsille were saying that the $212.5 amount is with these conditions, and that if the conditions are modified (like the team playing an extra year in Phoenix), that the amount of the offer will go down. Not that they are pulling the offer if they can't get x, y, z.
 
Nov 13, 2006
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He also asked for the NHL to cover his losses while he moves the team.

I don't believe that's in the offer. He offered to keep the team in Glendale for one season providing the league covers any losses through the media.

The actual offer is only valid through June 29, 2009 and depends on immediate movement to Ontario.
 

KevFu

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May 22, 2009
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Nice math yet fundamentally flawed.

May I ask how many tickets would be lost if Hamilton doesn't get a team and Canadians boycott Buffalo? Your assuming Canadians wouldn't blink an eye and keep coming over the border to see the team that denied them a franchise.

Yeah, the PR effect is a massive factor. The Sabres don't want to lose those fans, period. Their response must be crafted carefully. If the Hamilton Coyotes fall through, the Sabres would be extremely wise to offer some kind of pro-Canadian fan incentives.

The reason we're now hearing Buffalo isn't greatly opposed is because they can't say "No" to a team in Hamilton without it hurting them badly and a division rivalry can only be good for business.

I would think that is presumptuous. I don't think Buffalo is saying they aren't greatly opposed, I think they're trying to figure out just how much they stand to lose and just how opposed to be. The questions they pose are probably to gauge the ramifications so they can adopt a stance.

"Absolutely not! Not for any fee!" (Hey, we don't want to anger anyone that 10-20% who WANTS a Hamilton team)
"Well, what are the terms?"

Do we have a thread on the feasibility of each location within SO? I'd be interested in hearing more on the subject of Hamilton vs Mississauga, Vaughan or Toronto from people more enlightened on the subject than I.
 

ShootThePuckCoyotes

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Jul 13, 2006
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Phoenix
Yeah, the PR effect is a massive factor. The Sabres don't want to lose those fans, period. Their response must be crafted carefully. If the Hamilton Coyotes fall through, the Sabres would be extremely wise to offer some kind of pro-Canadian fan incentives.



I would think that is presumptuous. I don't think Buffalo is saying they aren't greatly opposed, I think they're trying to figure out just how much they stand to lose and just how opposed to be. The questions they pose are probably to gauge the ramifications so they can adopt a stance.

"Absolutely not! Not for any fee!" (Hey, we don't want to anger anyone that 10-20% who WANTS a Hamilton team)
"Well, what are the terms?"

Do we have a thread on the feasibility of each location within SO? I'd be interested in hearing more on the subject of Hamilton vs Mississauga, Vaughan or Toronto from people more enlightened on the subject than I.

If you guys think the fans will be that pissed off if Buffalo publicly opposed the move to boycott the team, wouldn't it be those same fans that would choose to go to a Hamilton Coyotes game instead of a Sabres game?

Aren't they losing fans either way? If the people of Hamilton want and deserve hockey as bad as you guys say they do then they would still go to Buffalo games if this deal fails.
 

Art.Vandelay

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Aug 2, 2005
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That language says nothing with regards to a television contract.

The specific languange in the contract is:

subject to terms and conditions no less advantageous than those currently enjoyed by the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey team

RIM's attorney referenced this clause in the hearing and then went on to expound. That was when she talked about the TV contract and territorial rights fees.

Basically, she said if they don't get a deal as good as what the Leafs have, they want the judge to deem it unfair and intervene.
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
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That language says nothing with regards to a television contract.

It is 6.2(b)(iv):
"Subject to terms and conditions no less advantageous than those currently enjoyed by the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey team..."

In court the judge asked Balsillie's lawyer exactly what this meant and the lawyer responded that it meant among other things that the team had to receive broadcasting rights in the [Ontario] region equivalent to the Maple Leafs.

edit: obviously Art's a faster typist :)
 

Northern Dancer

The future ain't what it used to be.
Mar 2, 2002
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The specific languange in the contract is:



RIM's attorney referenced this clause in the hearing and then went on to expound. That was when she talked about the TV contract and territorial rights fees.

Basically, she said if they don't get a deal as good as what the Leafs have, they want the judge to deem it unfair and intervene.

Why can't people see the ridiculouness of this and the entire Balsillie soap opera?

:shakehead:shakehead:shakehead

I think the Blue Jays should move to New York and get the exact same TV deal deal as the Yankees. Whoops, forgot to add the City should build them a new stadium as well!!

:sarcasm:
 

Jake16

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Dec 12, 2008
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A Bankruptcy judge doesn't have jurisdiction. Then again, GB thought he bought control of the Yotes for 30mm so I guess it doesn't hurt to ask ;)

Yes Judge Baum already said he will not issue any order that provides that the purchaser/team in Hamilton would have conditions "no less advantageous than those currently enjoyed by the Toronto Maple Leafs." That Clause, which appears on page 23 of the Asset Purchase Agreement was already turned down when JB's or Moyes's lawyer (If forget if it was Lisa Freeman or Tom Solerno) asked that it be included in the Bankrupcy auction notice. Judge said the Leafs aren't in court and he can't make them do anything. So if that's a material term of JB's offer, its already dead. Not that he can't make another revised offer doen the road.
 
Nov 13, 2006
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That language says nothing with regards to a television contract.

terms and conditions no less favorable than those currently enjoyed by the Toronto Maple Leafs. In court, PSE's attorney included TV rights in those terms. In court, Judge informied PSE/Balsillie he's doubtful court has authority to enforce the the requirement in Balsillie bid that the team have rights "no less advantageous than the Maple Leafs" after relocation.


http://www.hfboards.com/showthread.php?p=19626103#post19626103
 
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