Post-Game Talk: Avs 5 - Jets 2, Series tied at 1

[Positive]

Most Turnovers By Player On Winnipeg Jets | StatMuse

Dylan DeMelo had the most giveaways for the Jets this season, with 60 given away.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Maukkis]

There be a connection between those two points.

This is a team with two fixed lines and two fixed D pairings, so flexibility has to come with the 4th line, which is playing well, or the 2nd line, which isn't. Expect we'll see some moves there, and agree with others that we see a move on the 3rd pairing -- hadn't though about 88's value as a clear communicator, but definitely something in that.

Go Road Jerts!

I've been saying it far before it ever became a problem. There should not be fixed lines or pairings on a roster. It does. not. work. And if your coach runs them, you change the coach and don't look back.

 

[WpgSteve]

I'd start Brossoit next game. Helle has choked in too many playoff series to get the benefit of the doubt from me. Brossoit is good so why not use him.

I'd also scratch Toffoli and Stanley. I don't think Stanley deserves to be scratched, but we need to improve our zone exits and the Stanley-Samberg pairing is not good under pressure.

Bones needs to light a fire under these guys before things get dire. No point in waiting until we are down 3-1 in the series.

 

[surixon]

I'm just going to ignore the strawman argument.

Let's start off by where we agree: have 27-23-73 been anywhere near good enough? No, not even close: in 19:09 of 5v5 TOI across two games, they're 45% CF% and a team-worst 30% xGF%; and have only generated one more HDCF than the Lowry line (3 vs 2). This is even more disappointing, considering they are given the majority of the minutes against COL's checking line of Wood-Colton-Kiviranta.

Now the question becomes: why? And I think as this thread has evolved, people have slowly begun to hover around the same point - some are a little more fiery than others, but the focus has been on Ehlers for his "big mistakes". But as some have pointed out, and I would agree with - he's the only one on that line with the puck to make mistakes with as WPG tries to get from their DZ and through the NZ! Not saying he had a perfect game and it was the 4 other players (and 1 other goaltender) that were worse than him at all times, but no wonder he's so divisive.

Garret has been tracking the microstats, and although I don't currently have the means to subscribe, he's at least posted a few things publically: this look at defencemen's attempts at exits (and entries) lays things out for me, IMO:



There's two things: first, any defencemen not named Morrissey are constantly chipping out the puck from the DZ 70%+ of the time (reverse of controlled exit %). Can't shoot the puck on net in the OZ if you are constantly giving the puck back to your opponent to "relieve pressure" in the DZ. Second: only Morrissey, Dillon, and DeMelo-ish have been "clean" in their exit attempts (be that chip outs or whatnot). Stanley looks "cleaner" than Samberg but that because 54 is the attempting to maintain possession, while 64 is just chipping it out (if he's not hitting his opponent).

Let's connect the dots. 27-23-73 are struggling for offence. Ehlers is carrying the load. They don't often start with the puck from their own DZ, nor do they get the opportunities to start with the puck in the OZF. And then we come to the crux - okay, something needs to change, if only the 44-2 pairing are treading water while every other line has been struggling (if Georgiev isn't letting in every second shot attempt).

All the while: the top line has at least scored some nice goals, but they've been gashed by COL's respective top 6 (especially when paired up with Pionk against them) - so your goaltender whose preferred style of play is to be "big-and-boring" has been facing 1.3 shots every minute of each game thus far, which drops to just under 1 if it's only unblocked shots. This is all with Bowness preferred hard matchups. None of that is simply good at all. You need to change it up.

So what do you change it to? Well again: neither Scheifele nor the coaching staff apparently trusts Ehlers on the top line, so 27-55-13 probably isn't an option. Maybe getting Schmidt in for Stanley could help some, if not just for on-ice results then at least for the vibes and communication on the ice (because there were certainly a lot of communication breakdowns to end that 2nd period, giving up three straight goals) - but you still have your best (and only) puck mover in Morrissey taking the heavy minutes with the Lowry line, as 5-4 continue to stink with any line. Oh, and that Lowry line is "unchangeable" too - that matchup line "only works" if 62 and 22 are with him, apparently. Perfetti has proven he's a top 12 player on this team, yet the coaching staff only likes him in top 6 roles (which feels very contradictory). We haven't even gotten to "unlocking" the whole point of acquiring Toffoli's ability to score (because again, the Jets are struggling to even have the puck on their sticks in dangerous areas to begin with).

These are all problems we've seen since January. This was always the risk, and the gamble that this coaching staff has made, and made very intentionally to end the year too when everyone was feeling good about the vibes on a nice little winning streak but just average underlying numbers: that if they could instill a lot of defensive structure, that the high-end talent of their top players would outscore and/or outsave all the other issues. When one or neither happens, these two games vs COL are what you get. And now the Jets might not realistically have a known answer to address them.

This matches what I've seen. We are back to the rip it up the boards and hope zone exit strategy because we don't have the dmen that can weather their forecheck and make a play outside JoMo. Moving Snerg back to his natural side will hopefully get him back to his regular season performance levels.

It's why good puck moving dmen are so vital in today's game. You need dmen that can absorb pressure and move the puck cleanly. Hopefully Ville is ready next year as that is a skill of his.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'd start Brossoit next game. Helle has choked in too many playoff series to get the benefit of the doubt from me. Brossoit is good so why not use him.

I'd also scratch Toffoli and Stanley. I don't think Stanley deserves to be scratched, but we need to improve our zone exits and the Stanley-Samberg pairing is not good under pressure.

Bones needs to light a fire under these guys before things get dire. No point in waiting until we are down 3-1 in the series.

I’m with you bout Stanley he hasn’t been bad, I’ve expected worse, and he is not the reason we are losing but he is not essential and if it helps to take him out that’s what you do.

 

[JetsFan815]

Stan hasn't been bad but Schmidt gives you a better shot at adding some stability. With Pionk struggling so much they can't have 2 unpredictable pairings.

 

[surixon]

Think of winning a round in the playoffs or going beyond like getting from point a to point b in a reasonable time. The way the Jets have chosen to go about it is building a highway and hoping for the best. The problem with a highway is that if something goes wrong, if there is an accident then all traffic is backed up.

Even before the series began most had taken it for granted that if the top line just breaks even it'd be a win, and then relying on the depth to make a difference with Helle holding strong. Special teams breaking even was the best case scenario (they are -2 so far on STs). Now there has been an accident on the highway (Helle is just normal, 2nd line is struggling) and all the traffic is starting to pile up.

The signs were there even in the win streak where the 5v5 underlying numbers were mediocre despite the win streak.

Comes back to my comments on organizational rigidity in terms of roles and deployment. You need flexibility in order to adapt to any challenge you face. This org doesn't adapt well, it has major issues when it's default scheme isn't working. We can't seem to shift gears or transition into a different mindset and that is seen in our playoff record outside 2018. If the template doesn't work we have no answers.

 

[Jet]

This AWOL narrative is nuts... he set up Pionk for what should have been a tap in last game and came within a c-hair of getting us back in this game

I totally get what you are saying, and I, despite being part of the problem, think Ehlers gets too much negative attention around here.

However, at some point, a player needs to overcome whatever obstacles are hindering him, even if they aren't his making.

It's totally unfair, but it's a fact.

3 goals in 34 games just is not cutting it for a guy with the stats he has.

Connor gets lambasted around here (and not without some merit). But the guy puts the f***ing puck in the net and at the end of the day that's the point.

I’m with you bout Stanley he hasn’t been bad, I’ve expected worse, and he is not the reason we are losing but he is not essential and if it helps to take him out that’s what you do.

Yeah I haven't hated him but I have disliked that pair. Pairing snerg with Miller accomplishes two things: gets Samberg on his natural side, and Miller guaranteed will have better zone exits, not just chipping the puck and turning over possession.

The Jets simply need the puck more.

 

[surixon]

I totally get what you are saying, and I, despite being part of the problem, think Ehlers gets too much negative attention around here.

However, at some point, a player needs to overcome wharves obstacles are hindering him, even if they aren't his making.

It's totally unfair, but it's a fact.

3 goals in 34 games just is not cutting it for a guy with the stats he has.

Connor gets lambasted around here (and not without some merit). But the guy puts the f***ing puck on the net and at the end of the day that's the point.


Yeah I haven't hated him but I have disliked that pair. Pairing snerg with Miller accomplishes two things: gets Samberg on his natural side, and Miller guaranteed will have better zone exits, not just chipping the puck and turning over possession.

The Jets simply need the puck more.

Yup, Ehlers is paid to produce. We laugh at Toronto's stars for their playoff disappearances but Fly is just as bad if not worse. 12 points in 34 games. That isn't even third line caliber production.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Has Villardi been the weak link defensively for the schief line as they seem to target his side more.

 

[surixon]

Has Villardi been the weak link defensively for the schief line as they seem to target his side more.

Could be, but might be due to Pionk not managing the puck well in his end.

 

[SCP Guy]

We need our goalie to be way better then the oppositions goalie...If that happens we have a chance...If the goalies are even we lose 8 out of 10 times vs the Avs IMO

Before you ask I used a scientific calculator to come up with that ratio lol

 

[Adam da bomb]

Could be, but might be due to Pionk not managing the puck well in his end.

Could also be the fact I’m confusing Kc playing any d with being ok at it, therefore applauding any back checking. As he has seemed to pick up his game yet the line still gets hemmed in.

 

[Turin]

We need our goalie to be way better then the oppositions goalie...If that happens we have a chance...If the goalies are even we lose 8 out of 10 times vs the Avs IMO

Before you ask I used a scientific calculator to come up with that ratio lol

The Jets whole system and approach is built to maximize Hellebuyck. If he’s gonna regress in the playoffs again they are toast

 

[raideralex99]

Give the Avs credit they made the correct adjustments and exposed the Jets defencemen by forechecking them ... goal number 3.
That first goal from the faceoff really hurt ... Helly was playing great up to than.
Manson goal was a killer ... if it was the 1st or 3rd period that breakaway does not happen. Vilardi is between Manson and Helly coming out of the box.
I did not like Stanley's game there is no reason for him to be in the lineup against a fast skating team. Yes he had the hits but has no idea what to do with the puck when pressured. Also Samberg playing on the wrong side is hurting the Jets. There was one play where the Jets had pressure in the OZ the puck went around the boards and Samberg has to race to his right side to keep the puck in and could only get a weak backhand off ... if he was a RHD that shot is on net instead its going the other way.
The second line was not great but had scoring chances Monahan could have had 2 goals in the first 10 minutes ... Ehlers had a great scoring chance in the 3rd too the puck just did not go in for them.
Imo I think if Perfetti did not have that slump Chevy does not trade for Toffoili and goes after a RHD instead.
No need to panic Jets will split in Colorado and the series comes back to Winnipeg making it a 2 of 3 series.

 

[Ggg99]

How could anyone be surprised by the criticism of a goaltender letting in 10 goals in two games? I really like Connor. He seems like an amazing father and a truly decent human being, and frankly, somebody I would love to have lunch with and just pick their brain about life and fatherhood. I would go so far as to say that he could be a real role model as a father and as a person. But he's not being paid millions of dollars to be an awesome human and a great dad. He's being paid millions of dollars to be a venzina goaltender in the playoffs, not just the regular season. Of all the shit that has disappointed me in games one and two, his garbage play is at the top of the list.

Lots of people crapping on Helly and making the broad brush statement about letting in 10 goals in two games. How about looking at the goals he has let in and breaking it down. Other than the one where he wandered last night I'm not seeing any really bad ones that you could say he absolutely should have stopped. They are mostly tips, screens, break aways and great shots. He's not been his best but he's not the problem.

The man has been under seige and the biggest problem is the Avs are eating the Jets alive in our zone and for large parts of the game our team defense in our end is totally getting dominated. MacKinnon, Lehkonen, Rantanen and especially Nichushkin who has been a beast are totally dominating in our end for too many minutes. And their defense support at our blue line is totally bottling us in. MaKar, Toews and Manson are killing us too.

Hate to say it but some of our forwards (hell defensemen too) aren't built for playoff hockey. And if we think Pefetti is the answer... <<insert eyeroll emoji>>.

But it's only 1-1 and I think the Jets get back to Jets hockey for enough minutes to win in 7. Nobody plays their best hockey for 60 minutes every game.

I'm still glued to the bandwagon. But not saving seats anymore.

 

[MrvJets]

Helly is mentally scared. He is not a playoff goalie. I think we get knocked out if he is in net. I would put Brossoit in next game. Brossoit played magnificently against us last year.

 

[Buffdog]

Hellebuyck getting shat on for allowing 10 goals so far - he's also faced 9 xG in these two games. Yes, that's underperformance. Yes, the team hasn't defended this bad all year.

Also, it is hilarious to see Bowness get seven-figures for not playing ESV. Any Jet who sees Connor and Scheifele on the ice together should just jump onto the ice and take a too many men call to stop this lunacy.

Connor - Schief had been our best line this series

Of all the issues, that ain't one

They are, most definitely. But our systems and depth were supposed to be an equalizer.

And goalie

 

[WolfHouse]

The main problem facing this team is the lack of control by our D... we don't assert anything on the Avs and our puck control ranges from chip and chase to outright panic.

From what I saw, Bednar had his guys seal the boards knowing that our D zone plan is basically panic and clear it up the boards.

Pionk's play is so out of control at times it kills any structure we might have and cancels any 'good' plays he makes... its very clear that his contract year was the outlier... Bones' is married to his usage and we're paying for it now.

Stan/Samberg are just okay but if we're playing Samberg on his offside then play him with Dillon so we have a second pairing that actually clears net front... or get him back on his natural side.

When the Jets start to panic (or cheat) the Avs just clog up the neutral zone because our breakouts are so predictable.

The next biggest problem is that Bones relies on rolling four lines and he's not doing that. There's nothing to suggest that Gus-Names-Iafallo don't match up with MacK as well as our third line.

We are overplaying the top line now and back to extended shifts and gliding off the ice - the stats for the top line are all over the place but xGF and scoring chances are not good. We are falling for the same schtick as always - CSV has slick high danger chances for but the same amount or more against... this game is was basically 2:1 ratio of scoring chances against the top line.

Yup second line needs to get their shit together... but the top line needs to play a full game because when they take their foot off the pedal is a fkn disaster.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

Lots of people crapping on Helly and making the broad brush statement about letting in 10 goals in two games. How about looking at the goals he has let in and breaking it down. Other than the one where he wandered last night I'm not seeing any really bad ones that you could say he absolutely should have stopped. They are mostly tips, screens, break aways and great shots. He's not been his best but he's not the problem.

Two of the 4 scored last night were because of him, and the breakaway by Manson probably should have been stopped. Say what you want, but 10 goals against in two games is not playoff goaltending.

All of their top players are outplaying ours though.

 

[abax44]

Know what's really concerning/sad: Jack Johnson more than once beat guys to the puck. Jack Johnson... the only guy out there that can, in a normal situation, make Stanley look fleet of foot.

 

[scelaton]

Stan hasn't been bad but Schmidt gives you a better shot at adding some stability. With Pionk struggling so much they can't have 2 unpredictable pairings.

Yup.

I wasn't able to watch last night's game, but have a few general things to say that are independent of that game. Will start with your comment.

1) Schmidt>Stanley against Colorado--he has the necessary foot speed, lots of playoff experience, can move the puck, and all that will make Samberg better, playing on his natural side and not having to worry about the other guy. And no, I am not going to bring up Heinola--that would be rude

I think we are stuck with Pionk on the second pair and just have to hope he transforms into good Pionk, which is distinctly possible in a short series.

2) Our big advantage over Colorado is goaltending and we will win and lose with Helle. Playoffs are tiny sample sizes we know all goalies have bad streaks. I'd leave him in and hope he steals a game or two.

3) Speaking small samples, sounds like Ehlers made a mistake and we paid for it. But, like Helle, we can't win without him playing well, we know his impact on games over meaningful stretches, and we have to give both of them the latitude to perform over a longer series of games.

4)With home ice advantage, Colorado is going to try to feast on our slow D and defensively suspect forwards. Despite CS's recent success, I haven't changed my mind about ESV and CMX being a better top 6; in this case, X could be Perfetti or Tofolli, but Perfetti would work better with Connor, IMO. I also know the likelihood of this happening is next to 0, so am prepared for the consequences and fervently hoping to be wrong.

 

[jungles]

Lots of people crapping on Helly and making the broad brush statement about letting in 10 goals in two games. How about looking at the goals he has let in and breaking it down. Other than the one where he wandered last night I'm not seeing any really bad ones that you could say he absolutely should have stopped. They are mostly tips, screens, break aways and great shots. He's not been his best but he's not the problem.

The man has been under seige and the biggest problem is the Avs are eating the Jets alive in our zone and for large parts of the game our team defense in our end is totally getting dominated. MacKinnon, Lehkonen, Rantanen and especially Nichushkin who has been a beast are totally dominating in our end for too many minutes. And their defense support at our blue line is totally bottling us in. MaKar, Toews and Manson are killing us too.

Hate to say it but some of our forwards (hell defensemen too) aren't built for playoff hockey. And if we think Pefetti is the answer... <<insert eyeroll emoji>>.

But it's only 1-1 and I think the Jets get back to Jets hockey for enough minutes to win in 7. Nobody plays their best hockey for 60 minutes every game.

I'm still glued to the bandwagon. But not saving seats anymore.

Playoff goalies consistently make saves they shouldn't. We aren't paying Helle to be average.

Overall though I will agree with a lot of what has been said already: this team needs to figure out how to exit their zone in a controlled fashion without panicking and throwing it away. Every time we give the puck back to the Avs results in time spent in our zone instead of theirs.

We have been SO good at that at times this year, but when we aren't, we are REALLY bad.

 

[winnipegger]

Sometimes I cringe at Stanley's foot speed. There are times where he doesn't look like he belongs in the NHL.

We need one of those complete team efforts that the jets did so many times in the regular season and that made everyone believe this team could go on a run. First two games the "A" game is yet to be seen.

 

[Buffdog]

Playoff goalies consistently make saves they shouldn't. We aren't paying Helle to be average.

Overall though I will agree with a lot of what has been said already: this team needs to figure out how to exit their zone in a controlled fashion without panicking and throwing it away. Every time we give the puck back to the Avs results in time spent in our zone instead of theirs.

Yup... in order to win, we need Helle to make a couple of "how the f*** did he stop that" saves AND not let in any "he should have stopped that" goals

I was a goalie and rarely shit on them, but he needs to be as good as he can be. We're not asking any more than that, and it's not unreasonable to do so