Average power play time taken to score a goal

[Kane One]

Does anyone have the data on the average time into a full power play it takes for a team to score? By full power play, I mean ONLY a 2 minute penalty (no double minors or majors) and one that doesn’t get negated by any other penalties or turned into a 5 on 3.

The reason I ask is that I want to propose the idea on the main boards that some penalties should be shortened to 1 minute instead of 2 to have the refs make less of an impact on games and to increase 5 on 5 scoring. However the idea only makes sense if there’s any noticeable difference in goals scored.

Thanks!

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[Fish on The Sand]

Does anyone have the data on the average time into a full power play it takes for a team to score? By full power play, I mean ONLY a 2 minute penalty (no double minors or majors) and one that doesn’t get negated by any other penalties or turned into a 5 on 3.

The reason I ask is that I want to propose the idea on the main boards that some penalties should be shortened to 1 minute instead of 2 to have the refs make less of an impact on games and to increase 5 on 5 scoring. However the idea only makes sense if there’s any noticeable difference in goals scored.

Thanks!

I assume you only mean power plays that result in a power play goal?

If you include all uninterrupted 2 minute PPs then the number will surely be pretty close to 2 minutes because the vast majority result in no goal at all.

 

[Kane One]

I assume you only mean power plays that result in a power play goal?

If you include all uninterrupted 2 minute PPs then the number will surely be pretty close to 2 minutes because the vast majority result in no goal at all.

Yeah I mean a PP goal, not shorthanded.

And also I agree I think it makes sense to exclude power plays that don’t result in a PP goal.

 

[morehockeystats]

A power play that converts either to 5 vs 3 or to 4 vs 3 should not be discarded. It's a conversion to a more advantageous situation.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Does anyone have the data on the average time into a full power play it takes for a team to score? By full power play, I mean ONLY a 2 minute penalty (no double minors or majors) and one that doesn’t get negated by any other penalties or turned into a 5 on 3.

The reason I ask is that I want to propose the idea on the main boards that some penalties should be shortened to 1 minute instead of 2 to have the refs make less of an impact on games and to increase 5 on 5 scoring. However the idea only makes sense if there’s any noticeable difference in goals scored.

Thanks!

What if no one scores.

Edit: see addressed later on.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Yeah I mean a PP goal, not shorthanded.

And also I agree I think it makes sense to exclude power plays that don’t result in a PP goal.

If you include scoreless power plays then I suspect the average is probably pretty close to the 2 minute mark by sheer volume of scoreless power plays.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Does anyone have the data on the average time into a full power play it takes for a team to score? By full power play, I mean ONLY a 2 minute penalty (no double minors or majors) and one that doesn’t get negated by any other penalties or turned into a 5 on 3.

The reason I ask is that I want to propose the idea on the main boards that some penalties should be shortened to 1 minute instead of 2 to have the refs make less of an impact on games and to increase 5 on 5 scoring. However the idea only makes sense if there’s any noticeable difference in goals scored.

Thanks!

If you include scoreless power plays then I suspect the average is probably pretty close to the 2 minute mark by sheer volume of scoreless power plays.

Using some very quick math, round numbers, and some reasonable assumptions, about a minute and 48 seconds is my hypothesis.

Historically, power play success rates have been around 20%. I'd come up with a better answer if I actually checked the exact average for a given time period, but we'll go with 20.
There's no clear solid reason* to believe that the average time of a goal on a successful power play is anything other than about 60 seconds.
So if you run 100 power plays, and 20 of them last an average of 60 seconds and 80 of them last 120 seconds, you've run a total of 10,800 seconds of power play hockey, or an average of 108 seconds per power play. 1:48.

* here's where it gets less simple. I don't think power play goals are distributed evenly around the 2 minute time frame in which they can happen. I'm pretty sure second units score less than first units, so the last 45 seconds of a power play would be less likely to have goals happen if that's true. It's also common for the last line rush on a power play to have a checking line and regular D pair come out instead of the second unit, so there's likely even fewer goals in the last 15 seconds. Then there's the first few seconds of a power play, where the only way for a goal to be scored is to take a shot immediately after a faceoff win. For this to happen, the attacking team has to win the faceoff, and they have to elect not to set up their formation before shooting. I don't know how these 3 factors (or other ones) effect the average time of a successful power play, but I wouldn't be surprised if it only moves the average by a few seconds either way.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Using some very quick math, round numbers, and some reasonable assumptions, about a minute and 48 seconds is my hypothesis.

Historically, power play success rates have been around 20%. I'd come up with a better answer if I actually checked the exact average for a given time period, but we'll go with 20.
There's no clear solid reason* to believe that the average time of a goal on a successful power play is anything other than about 60 seconds.
So if you run 100 power plays, and 20 of them last an average of 60 seconds and 80 of them last 120 seconds, you've run a total of 10,800 seconds of power play hockey, or an average of 108 seconds per power play. 1:48.

* here's where it gets less simple. I don't think power play goals are distributed evenly around the 2 minute time frame in which they can happen. I'm pretty sure second units score less than first units, so the last 45 seconds of a power play would be less likely to have goals happen if that's true. It's also common for the last line rush on a power play to have a checking line and regular D pair come out instead of the second unit, so there's likely even fewer goals in the last 15 seconds. Then there's the first few seconds of a power play, where the only way for a goal to be scored is to take a shot immediately after a faceoff win. For this to happen, the attacking team has to win the faceoff, and they have to elect not to set up their formation before shooting. I don't know how these 3 factors (or other ones) effect the average time of a successful power play, but I wouldn't be surprised if it only moves the average by a few seconds either way.

Another reason the distribution wouldn't be even is because of the automatic offensive zone faceoff.

There is guaranteed action in the shorthanded teams zone for at least a few seconds at the start of every powerplay, even if that's just the shorthanded team winning the draw and dumping the puck down.

It's the only time the puck is guaranteed to be in the offensive zone for the powerplay team.

 

[Johnny Engine]

Another reason the distribution wouldn't be even is because of the automatic offensive zone faceoff.

There is guaranteed action in the shorthanded teams zone for at least a few seconds at the start of every powerplay, even if that's just the shorthanded team winning the draw and dumping the puck down.

It's the only time the puck is guaranteed to be in the offensive zone for the powerplay team.

Yeah. My hypothesis on that is that if you made a histogram of all successful powerplays and the time at which goals are scored, it'd be very low for the first second or two, and then spike upwards at about 3 seconds. I wouldn't be surprise if it dips a bit between the 5 and 10-second mark too, as a large number of power plays would have their first retrieval and regroup at that point.
But I don't have any actual information on that, just educated guesses.