Avalanche Draft 2019 - Did we do well?

[AvsRobin]

I see all the individual threads for players but would like one to discuss and dissect the overall draft for us. (Plus it's nice to go back to these in a few years, I checked the 2014 one and everyone was happy with that draft and many liked Bleackley, but everyone now everyone acts like we knew it was crap from the start)







Analytics is getting into the draft more and more. We are not sure of the value of it yet, cause it very new. But according to most of their models we did way better than most. (Drafting #4 and #16 helps)

Click to read more...

 

[AvsRobin]

Here comes the eye test.

I could not put all of this in the same post, sorry.

 

[AvsRobin]

Should I start?

2019
1	#4	Bowen Byram (D)	2001-06-13	Cranbrook, BC, CAN	184 cm	88 kg
1	#16	Alex Newhook (C)	2001-01-28	St. John's, NL, CAN	179 cm	86 kg
2	#47	Drew Helleson (D)	2001-03-26	Farmington, MN, USA	191 cm	88 kg
3	#63	Matthew Stienburg (C/RW)	2000-10-07	Halifax, NS, CAN	185 cm	84 kg
3	#78	Alex Beaucage (RW/LW)	2001-07-25	Trois-Rivières, QC, CAN	188 cm	87 kg
5	#140	Sasha Mutala (RW)	2001-05-06	Vancouver, BC, CAN	185 cm	89 kg
6	#171	Luka Burzan (C)	2000-01-07	Surrey, BC, CAN	185 cm	86 kg
7	#202	Trent Miner (G)	2001-02-05	Souris, MB, CAN	185 cm	82 kg

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

#4 I was happy with Byram, without having the opportunity to watch these players on a daily basis. And many people who's opinion I respect rates him HIGH.
#16 Alex Newhook, I was really hoping for Caufield here, but people I've spoken to say that Newhook is a way better prospect. I hope they are right.
#47 I got a bit disappointed here. I was like who? And why, so many interesting ones are still on the board. But I have read good things about him since and I assume he is a fine 2nd round prospect.
#63 I got a bit pissed here. There was three players left I really wanted, Albin Grewe mostly. And this guy was a reach. I have seen some highligts now and I am not impressed. Seemed high. But Rachel Doerrie says he is a great kid who is extremely eager to learn and improve, that's at least something.
#78 This is someone the scouts are divided on but the analytics boys love, and I don't mind a pick like that. High upside.
#140 Seems good at 140, don't know much about him. Was ranked in the top 100 by many.
#171 Athletic had this guy ranked 100 so.. Nice I assume
#202 I am all for BPA, but it's nice to add a goalie every year, eventually you are going to hit on someone

 

[tucker3434]

I see all the individual threads for players but would like one to discuss and dissect the overall draft for us. (Plus it's nice to go back to these in a few years, I checked the 2014 one and everyone was happy with that draft and many liked Bleackley, but everyone now everyone acts like we knew it was crap from the start)







Analytics is getting into the draft more and more. We are not sure of the value of it yet, cause it very new. But according to most of their models we did way better than most. (Drafting #4 and #16 helps)

I can’t figure out what to make of that last table on the left. I guess it’s WAR for that pick position, because it seems like it should be a steady descent otherwise.

 

[5280]

In b4 @cgf says he wishes we picked Zegras @ 4.

I’m no expert by any means, but I’m pretty happy with Byram and Newhook. Henchy likes Helleson and Gigantor likes the goalie. That’s good enough for me.

 

[cgf]

In b4 @cgf says he wishes we picked Zegras @ 4.

I’m no expert by any means, but I’m pretty happy with Byram and Newhook. Henchy likes Helleson and Gigantor likes the goalie. That’s good enough for me.

Well since I was summoned, I think you meant "...we picked Pod @4"; but Zegras wouldn't have been bad either

FWIW I'm on board with new-Meloche; even if I do feel like leaving this draft having made all of our picks and the picks that we made, was too "safe" for my liking...and new-Meloche certainly fits that bill as well...but I'm not going to fill another thread with debating that anymore so that's all I'll say on that.

At this stage I'm just hoping to turn out to have been completely wrong

 

[ASmileyFace]

In b4 @cgf says he wishes we picked Zegras @ 4.

I’m no expert by any means, but I’m pretty happy with Byram and Newhook. Henchy likes Helleson and Gigantor likes the goalie. That’s good enough for me.

Pretty much my thoughts as well. I was pretty split on Turcotte/Dach/Zergas/Byram initially, but reading into Byram more yesterday sold me. I preferred Newhook over Kerbs personally so I was stoked about that pick.

 

[5280]

Pod...but Zegras wouldn't have been bad either

FWIW I'm on board with new-Meloche; even if I do feel like leaving this draft having made all of our picks and the picks that we made, was too "safe" for my liking...and new-Meloche certainly fits that bill as well...but I'm not going to fill another thread with debating that anymore so that's all I'll say on that.

I've already said my piece and at this stage am just hoping to turn out to have been completely wrong

I have a feeling Pod’s going to be an animal, too. Pretty stoked about Byram, though, in all honesty. Here’s to hoping you’re wrong.

 

[cgf]

I have a feeling Pod’s going to be an animal, too. Pretty stoked about Byram, though, in all honesty. Here’s to hoping you’re wrong.

If they put him with EP & Boeser when he comes over...9296 might just have some competition...

 

[UncleRisto]

Sounds like we picked a bunch of stone feet in the "Avs bust pick zone", but I like the goalie pick, and how it's not a weird European.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Sounds like we picked a bunch of stone feet in the "Avs bust pick zone", but I like the goalie pick, and how it's not a weird European.

They must really have a lot of confidence in their skating coaches.

 

[Belgican]

I was hoping for Byram and Newhook, still can’t believe I got my wish. Thought the Avs would take a forward at #4 because there wouldn’t be a good one available at #16, but the early demand for defensemen made it a strike for the Avs.

I don’t have much hope for the other picks, I was troubled with Helleson attitude, I thought he looked sad to be picked by the Avs. Could be wrong here, just a thought.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Here is my feelings on the Avs' draft this season:

1st rnd: Byram and Newhook. Very happy. We addressed both our major needs (LHD and 2C). I thought we would do that in the opposite order but it still works for me.

2nd rnd: Helleson. Quite happy. I would have prefer Kolyachonok at 47th but Helleson works quite nicely for me as well. He should be a rock defensively for us and his offense is a bit underrated.

3rd rnd: Stienburg and Beaucage. Considering the players still on the board at our picks I am scratching my head. Stienburg was taken too early. Considering how the Avs value speed Beaucage is a weird pick for them. With that being said if they believe they can bring his skating to an NHL level we could have a pretty good player which would fill the sniper need.

5th-6th rnds: Mutala and Burzan. Pretty good value in these rounds. I'm OK with the picks.

7th rnd: Miner. Very good value at that spot. Miner has the potential to become an NHL starter.

Overall I would give them an A- because of the first two rounds and the 7th.

 

[Chiarelli]

What if we just consider the original avalanche draft picks and take out Ottawa’s are we still happy?

I say yes. Biggest debate is newhook over krebs and sucks caufield didn’t last one more pick but oh well.

Couple late round guys that have upside and a goalie late that looks decent

 

[McMetal]

I give it a B+. Some good value upside picks in the late rounds in Mutala, Miner, and Burzan. Earlier in the draft they passed on guys I wanted to pick for others, but aside from the Stienburg pick I don't hate any of the choices in those spots. We'll have to see how it turns out but it seems pretty good from where I'm sitting 24 hours later.

 

[timothy jimothy]

I'm not going to be critical of a team's picks outside of the first round (unless they are blantantly terrible).The Avs didn't take any of 'my' guys, but everybody is going to have different preferences. Ultimately only like 10-20% of these guys have an impact in the NHL, so it's not that big of a deal to get worked up about.

#4: Lots of options in this spot, but I think Byram was the right choice, especially with the run that we saw on D. He has been the best player on my board after the top 2 since the Ivan Hlinka tournament, and the prospect that I saw the most of this season. My all-time favourite defensemen without a doubt was Scott Niedermayer, and whenever I would watch Byram play, I would see shades of that. Bonus points for the Cranbrook connection too. Scotty is obviously a once in a lifetime player, and maybe it's not fair to put that on Bryam, but I just love watching defensemen like this play the hockey. I'm always on the lookout for this type of player, and Byram is one of the best to come out of the WHL imo--better than Morgan Reilly, Ivan Provorov, Ryan Murray who are all players that I really like too. There's definitely a lot of player to work with here. The NHL is a big jump though, and it'll be very interesting to see what translates for him. He could be a key piece to this team going forward, and at the very least I think we've got ourselves a very solid NHL defenseman.

#16: I can't believe we were able to get Alex Newhook in this spot. I was in the BCHL when I was younger, and I try to keep tabs on the league when I can. Got the chance to watch Newhook play a few times the past 2 seasons. I had Newhook as my 9th best player in the draft, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Avs had him even higher than that. Every game I saw him play I couldn't get over how much the Avs were going to like him. I see big-time upside here. Absolutely love his motor and the pace that he can play at. Not just a one-trick pony, very diverse threat offensively. Very difficult player to defend against. For you faceoff guys... I thought he was pretty good at faceoffs too. There is a lot to like about Newhook, I think he is going to surprise some people. Don't let the BCHL scare you, it is a better league than it gets credit for (lots of good talent electing to go the college route over the CHL lately), his performance at the u18s should squash those worries. For those of you that are mad that Caufield went one pick before us... don't be (the Avs still would've taken Newhook over him anyway). For those of you mad that we took him over Krebs... don't be. I don't think people understand just how high the Avs were on this kid. I can guarantee to you that they see something special in Alex Newhook, and Avs fans should be really excited about that.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

I actually really like our draft, as long as you omit round 3 which was a disaster.

Byram: Love it, he's going to be a top-pair guy for us for a long time.

Newhook: there will forever be debate between him and Krebs, but I'm hoping he'll fit our system like a glove and make us forget about what could have been.

Helleson: really nice pickup here, could end up better than some of the D taken in round 1.

Steinburg and Beaucage: awful. Both of these picks should have been packaged together for another pick in the 2nd round.

Mutala: really good pickup here. Kid has the right tools to make the NHL in a bottom 6 role, just needs his personal life distractions to become inspirations and give him strength to take the next step.

Burzan: while I don't think he'll amount to anything, these are the types of picks you gotta make in the last 2 rounds.

Miner: pretty happy with this one, could end up being an NHLer someday and we can let him take as long as he needs to get there

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Just saw a really funny quote from Hepple

“We try to take a goalie we like every year and see what happens.”

Not sure why I find it so funny, but it just kind of reeks of desperation haha

 

[shadow1]

I really like Colorado’s first three picks.

Newhook I was really high on, even more so than Krebs (which I know will be a debate for years to come). And while I don’t think Byram reaches the 20 goal upside some folks thinks he has, he gives the Avalanche an unrivaled young defense for years to come.

It seems like the second round is when this team always loves to grab a defenseman, often a right handed one. But I love this pick as well. Obviously, Helleson’s upside is more limited - but I don’t see that as a big flaw. The Avalanche need to start hitting on some of their non-1st round picks and developing them into NHL talent. Helleson, I think, has top-4 upside.

Other than that, I thought their draft was meh.

Obviously, the Stienberg pick was questionable. For most of this year, we fans considered that pick to be decent trade ammunition/an extra second round pick due to the fact it was going to be near the top of the third round (and turned out to be pick 63). It was an exciting asset to see Colorado have in its back pocket. To see the club go off the board with it left me scratching my head.

I do like the Trent Miner pick in round 7, though. His mechanics and positioning look good, but his lateral movement is really bad. Not bad enough for it to matter in the WHL, but bad that it won’t fly in the pros. Hopefully, he gets some positive work in at Development Camp and gets some work with a good goalie coach. I think this guy has NHL potential.

 

[Balthazar]

Obviously, the Stienberg pick was questionable. For most of this year, us fans considered that pick to be decent trade ammunition/an extra second round pick due to the fact it was going to be near the top of the third round (and turned out to be pick 63). To watch the Avalanche go off the board with it left me scratching my head.

That's what hurts the most. Nothing against the kid, it's not like our 3rd rd picks have a history of success anyway. It's that we could have used it as ammo to move up but we didn't and ended up reaching instead. That's bad.

It really looks like they expected one of their guys to be available there but they were all gone and they didn't know who to pick. Which was pretty much confirmed by Hepple later.

 

[Ivan13]

Just saw a really funny quote from Hepple

“We try to take a goalie we like every year and see what happens.”

Not sure why I find it so funny, but it just kind of reeks of desperation haha

Oh, it's funny most definitely. Always nice to see that a pro sports franchise has the same attitude towards the draft as I do to Eurojackpot tickets. I get one every week just to see what might happen. Sometimes I get 10$, but most of the time I'm 2.5$ out of pocket.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

We did very well with the most important picks, but our 2-7 round drafting sucks. Honestly we would be better off trading as many 2nd and 3rd picks as possible for actual NHL players.

 

[CB Joe]

I wish they traded up to grab Knight in the 1st but otherwise I think the draft went pretty well.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

We did very well with the most important picks, but our 2-7 round drafting sucks. Honestly we would be better off trading as many 2nd and 3rd picks as possible for actual NHL players.

I agree. Use them to buy low on a young player that has had some struggles with their current organization and see if they can turn it around with us.
I put way more faith in that sort of gamble than I do in our scoutimg/development team churning out NHL talent past round 1.

 

[Metallo]

That's what hurts the most. Nothing against the kid, it's not like our 3rd rd picks have a history of success anyway. It's that we could have used it as ammo to move up but we didn't and ended up reaching instead. That's bad.

It really looks like they expected one of their guys to be available there but they were all gone and they didn't know who to pick. Which was pretty much confirmed by Hepple later.

Really? If true that is flat out unacceptable. They need to have a list and just pick the next name on that list. How hard is that?