Auston Matthews Contract

[WingsMJN2965]

Pretty simple concept here. His contract, $11.634M per/5 years, was signed under a $79.5M cap, made him the 2nd highest paid player in the league. Is he overpaid or fairly paid?

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[jetsforever]

I don't hate the AAV (bit high though) but the term is terrible.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I don't hate the AAV (bit high though) but the term is terrible.

I should've noted that term is involved in the consideration. As you pointed out, AAV is a little over but the term is brutal. I agree.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He's fairly paid. One of the best players prior to signing their post-ELC contract in the entire cap era, and even started in his D+0 year. His contract is in line with current and past comparables, even considering term, as I showed you in the other thread that prompted the creation of this poll.

 

[82Ninety42011]

I don't hate the AAV (bit high though) but the term is terrible.

The AAV is a bit high but he could take another step yet and become fairly paid but the term yes bad for Leafs.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

He's fairly paid. One of the best players prior to signing their post-ELC contract in the entire cap era. His contract is in line with current and past comparables, as I showed you in the other thread.

Who is the comparable that signed a contract making him a top-2 paid player in the league at 21, only over a 5 year term?

I'll wait...

 

[Dekes For Days]

Who is the comparable that signed a contract making him a top-2 paid player in the league at 21, only over a 5 year term?

That's pretty specific and arbitrary criteria you have there. He is in line with many comparables, but the one closest to your weird criteria is probably Malkin.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

That's pretty specific and arbitrary criteria you have there. He is in line with many comparables, but the one closest to your weird criteria is probably Malkin.

How is it weird criteria? You're talking about comparables. There are literally no recent comparables for a guy that young making that much over that short of a term. That was the point...

Malkin's pretty close though... Minus the 106 point top season compared to Matthews' hightest, an 83 point pace.

 

[Regal]

Depends how you want to look at it. He probably shouldn't have been the 2nd highest paid player coming off his ELC, and even though he was a better player than his numbers due to his lower ice time, production has a higher correlation to contracts and Dubas should have been able to get the number down, especially over only 5 years. The Eichel contract should have been the best comparable. Realistically though, he's going to be a top 10 and arguably a top 5 forward over the course of this contract, so haggling over whether he could have got a slightly better deal isn't that important.

 

[Dekes For Days]

How is it weird criteria? You're talking about comparables.

Yes, and everything doesn't have to be 100% exactly the same down to the smallest arbitrary detail to be a comparable.

There are literally no comparables in the cap era for a guy that young making that much over that short of a term.

This is false. Both Crosby and Malkin had higher cap hit percentages on their post-ELC contracts with the exact same 5 year term.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Yes, and everything doesn't have to be 100% exactly the same down to the smallest arbitrary detail to be a comparable.

This is false. Both Crosby and Malkin had higher cap hit percentages on their post-ELC contracts with the exact same 5 year term.

Crosby was a Hart winner before signing his contract. Malkin was 2nd in Hart voting and had made a Cup Final before he signed his.

Matthews hasn't made it out of the first round and hasn't even made the Top 10 in Hart Voting. Try again.

 

[JaegerDice]

He's fairly paid, it's just the term that's less than ideal for the Leafs, cause they'll have to pay him again relatively soon, and likely more.

 

[Hunter368]

Cap hit is in the top of scale in the NHL based on what he's accomplished and his potential..........the term is brutal though.....absolutely brutal in combo of being paid at top of scale. That cap hit should of been a 7-8 year term not 5.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Malkin's pretty close though... Minus the 106 point top season

Malkin's 106 point season came with over 5 minutes of PP time every game; a product of the era and a team stat, not the player. He was also older and got to play with the best player in the world at ES and on the PP for a considerable amount of time.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Malkin's 106 point season came with over 5 minutes of PP time every game; a product of the era and a team stat, not the player. He also got to play with the best player in the world at ES and on the PP for a considerable amount of time.

Crosby played 53 games that season.

 

[Mickey Marner]

He was worth 11.634 this season. But he also would've been worth 10, 9, 8, 7 etc. AAV as well. It's close to as much as you can justify paying him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Crosby played 53 games that season.

And yet was still Malkin's 3rd most common linemate at ES, and 2nd most common linemate on the PP (1 minute behind #1).

 

[WingsMJN2965]

And yet was still Malkin's 3rd most common linemate at ES, and 2nd most common linemate on the PP (1 minute behind #1).

And yet, Malkin had a 1.59 PPG average when Crosby was hurt, compared to 1.13 when they both played.

Tell me more about how Malkin's production was clearly a result of playing with Crosby.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Tell me more about how Malkin's production was clearly a result of playing with Crosby.

I didn't say he was a product of Crosby. It was just an additional advantage that Matthews, who had a similar production level prior to signing his post-ELC contract, didn't have.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

I didn't say he was a product of Crosby. It was just an additional advantage that Matthews, who had a similar production level prior to signing his post-ELC contract, didn't have.

I like the part where you edited out the fact that his production was significantly higher when Crosby was injured.

But continue trying to spin it.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I like the part where you edited out the fact that his production was significantly higher when Crosby was injured.

I took it out because while it is good for him, his production driven by unsustainable metrics over a like 25 game sample isn't relevant, and doesn't negate the fact that playing with Crosby is an advantage.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

More accurately, you attempted to dismiss the advantage of playing significant time with Crosby (not to mention the PP TOI advantage), because of some unsustainable production Malkin had over a tiny sample in one part of one of those years.

You tried giving partial credit for his 106 point season to Crosby even though he produced better without Crosby. His most common linemates 5 on 5 were Ryan Malone and Petr Sykora, BTW. Take the L and move on.

I mean, I agree there was no point in continuing this, which is why I am unclear why, after being proven wrong extensively in the other thread, you decided to make a whole new thread to be proven wrong in.

There is no point in continuing it. You're actually delusional enough to think Matthews career high production rate of 83 points, with very little playoff history/performance, and nothing close to a Hart is comparable to Malkin signing his contract after a 106 point season where he came 2nd in Hart voting and went to the Finals.

You would've been better off comparing Matthews' to Kane, but of course, that wouldn't fit your narrative, as Kane's contract scales to $8.8M under a $79.5M cap.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I never thought I'd see the day when a Wings fan would be arguing in favour of a Pens player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You tried giving partial credit for his 106 point season to Crosby

I added context to his production. Context that he played considerable time with the best player in the game, at ES and on the PP. Context that you would rather ignore by pointing to results over ridiculous samples, driven by things you don't seem to understand.

You're actually delusional enough to think Matthews career high production rate of 83 points, with very little playoff history/performance, and nothing close to a Hart is comparable to Malkin signing his contract after a 106 point season where he came 2nd in Hart voting and went to the Finals.

Award voting is meaningless, and playoff success is a team thing, and highly dependent on opponents.

Raw production is already a horrible way to compare players, but especially across wildly different eras where they had wildly different PP TOI. Matthews and Malkin had very similar overall production levels prior to signing their post-ELC contracts. Matthews is also in line with many other comparables, that are relevant, even if they don't fit your obscure critera.

Malkin was the slightly better point producer, when adjusted for era. Matthews was the better goal scorer. Matthews was also younger and had worse linemate quality.

You would've been better off comparing Matthews' to Kane

Kane wasn't even close to Matthews.

 

[Regal]

Malkin's 106 point season came with over 5 minutes of PP time every game; a product of the era and a team stat, not the player. He was also older and got to play with the best player in the world at ES and on the PP for a considerable amount of time.

Malkin played under the same rules as everyone else and finished 4th in P/60 5v5 (min 500 min), 4th in 5v5 P1/60 (min 500 min), 16th in 5v4 P/60 (min 150 min), and 13th in 5v4 P1/60. In 18-19, Matthews finished 11th in 5v5 P/60, tied for 9th in 5v5 P1/60, 14th in PP P/60 and 3rd in PP P1/60.

While you can make a case for Matthews being similarly valuable based on P/60 scoring rates, it's obvious that contracts are based on more than that. Contracts are a negotiation and while Matthews' agent can argue that his client is worth more due to the rate numbers, Dubas could argue against the actual totals. With Malkin, he had both the rates and the totals, as well as the award finalist finishes, as well as being over PPG on a cup finals team. His finish to the season cemented his place with Crosby and Ovechkin to widely be seen as part of the big 3 at that point. That should be able to to get a bigger contract, because he actually put up the numbers in those minutes. Matthews got paid like he did both as well. In the end it probably doesn't matter, but a good negotiator should have been able to get it down.