I believe that the Vancouver top-six is a lot more effective than Tidewater's top-six. Vancouver is extremely strong down the middle with Schmidt and Gilmour. Vancouver also has the best scorer in the series, Pavel Bure, who is much more lethal than Tidewater's best scorer, Ilya Kovalchuk. Furthermore, Vancouver's lines are constructed to make each player as effective as possible, whereas Tidewater's top-six looks bizarre (mostly because their 4 best players all peaked in the 2000's, think of this what you will, but I don't like it) and some of the combination feel really awkward. The 2nd line of Kovalchuk-Sundin-Hyland is just brutally constructed, but we'll get to this later...
I’m going to start this analysis by comparing each team’s strength down the middle, who has the better guy anchoring each line?
Milt Schmidt vs Peter Forsberg
Top-10s in Hart Trophy Voting
Schmidt: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 5th
Forsberg: 1st, 7th, 8th
Conn-Smythe Trophies
Schmidt: 1
Forsberg: none!
Top 10s in Goals
Schmidt: 2nd, 6th, 9th
Forsberg: none!
Top 10s in Assists
Schmidt: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 4th
Forsberg: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 9th, 10th
If you look at their pure offensive numbers, Schmidt and Forsberg have almost identical assist finishes when comparing their most dominant seasons. Schmidt was clearly able to produce assists at the same elite level as Forsberg when looking at the elite (top-4 finishes). Forsberg only gets a minor advantage because his assist finishes carry on afterwards with more average 6th, 9th and 10th finishes, whereas Schmidt doesn’t have any top-10 finishes after that. This is sort of the same dynamic as a peak vs longevity scenario, to some extent. Schmidt’s peak was shorter, so Forsberg has better finishes later on, but at the height of their peaks, Schmidt produced just as well as Forsberg.
However, if you look at the goal scoring finishes, Forsberg never even registered in the top-10, whereas Schmidt has three top-10 finishes, and a 2nd place finish that proves he was capable of scoring goals at an elite level too.
Schmidt was capable of being both a goal scorer and a playmaker. He was a much more dominant goal scorer then Forsberg, and his best assist finishes are just as good as Forsberg the playmaker’s. Schmidt, however, is a far better overall player. Forsberg was a fine two-way player, but Schmidt is an elite two-way center who also brings even more to the table then just scoring and defense. In an overall context, Schmidt’s intangibles are in the Trottier/Clarke tier.
You can see the difference in Schmidt and Forsberg’s overall value when comparing their Hart Trophy voting records. Schmidt is so much more valuable to a team then Forsberg, and the advantage here goes to the Vancouver Maroons.
Joe Pelletier:
Schmidt was considered to be the ultimate two-way player of his day, a Trottier or Steve Yzerman of the 1940s. He was small but determined. He was a strong skater and clever puck distributor but also a great finish. As beautiful as he was to watch on the offense, the Bruins long time captain took equal pride in the defensive zone, and was not afraid to get his nose dirty. While he usually played cleanly, one reporter described his play as "angry."
Maurice Richard:
There's no doubt that Milt Schmidt was the best center I have ever played against. He was a good scorer too.
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Doug Gilmour vs Mats Sundin
Top 10s in Hart Trophy Voting
Gilmour: 2nd, 4th, 5th, 9th
Sundin: 8th
Top 10s in Selke Trophy Voting
Gilmour: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 6th, 9th
Sundin: none!
Top 10s in Goals
Gilmour: 10th
Sundin: 2nd, 8th, 10th
Top 10s in Assists
Gilmour: 2nd, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th
Sundin: 10th
Top 10s in Points
Gilmour: 4th, 5th, 7th
Sundin: 4th, 7th
Offensively, Gilmour was a play maker and Sundin was a goal scorer, but Gilmour’s advantage in assist top-10s is much greater than Sundin’s advantage in goal-scoring top-10s. They both only have a 10th place finish in the opposite category (goals/assists), so if you compare Gilmour’s assist finishes to Sundin’s goalscoring finishes, and cancel out the identical finishes, it looks like this:
Gilmour’s assist finishes: 2nd, 5th, 6th
vs
Sundin’s goal scoring finishes: 10th
So
Gilmour has an advantage in regular season offensive numbers, but the playoffs are where Gilmour was even better. Lets take a look at each player’s 5 best post-seasons…
Doug Gilmour
1986: 21 points in 19 games, 1st in PTS
1988: 17 points in 10 games, 17th in PTS
1989: 22 points in 22 games, 5th in PTS,
1993: 35 points in 21 games, 2nd in PTS
1994: 28 points in 18 games, 4th in PTS
Total: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 17th
Mats Sundin
1995: 9 points in 7 games, 38th in PTS
1999: 16 points in 17 games, 7th in PTS
2001: 13 points in 11 games, 16th in PTS
2004: 9 points in 9 games, 26th in PTS
2009: 8 points in 8 games, 51st in PTS
Total: 7th, 16th, 26th, 38th, 51st
Gilmour has better top-10 scoring finishes, was absolutely MONEY in the playoffs, and brought so much more to the game than Sundin. He was a multi-dimensional player with an array of intangibles whereas Sundin was a fairly average and basically one-dimensional forward. Just look at Gilmour's elite Selke voting record, then look at Sundin's selke record (or lack thereof), and then compare their Hart Trophy voting records. No question about it,
Gilmour is a far superior player compared to Sundin. Vancouver has a HUGE advantage here.
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Bailey-Schmidt-Bure vs Smith-Forsberg-Iginla
Vancouver has created a great line around Schmidt, and so has Tidewater for the most part, but Vancouver's first line is still more effective. Schmidt is better then Forsberg so Vancouver's first line has the most important advantage already. Vancouver also has the better left-winger on these lines. Ace Bailey's scoring finishes are 1st, 4th, 6th while Sid Smith's are 5th, 8th, and 10th. Bailey has won both a retro-Rocket Richard trophy and a retro-Art Ross trophy. Bailey was also more multi-dimensional than Smith, he was known as a great defensive forward and penalty killer. Tidewater has a bit of an advantage on the RW because Iginla is a better overall player than Bure when comparing their careers. However, Bure was arguably the best pure goalscorer of the 1990's and he is definitely a greater scoring threat than Iginla. With Schmidt and Bailey as his linemates, covering for him defensively, he'll be able to excel in this series and with his speed he'll be lethal every shift.
Vancouver has the better left winger and the better center, and the most dangerous scorer on either of these lines at RW. Vancouver's top line is also far better in the defensive zone, and a more multi-dimensional first line.
Fleury-Gilmour-Bauer vs Kovalchuk-Sundin-Hyland
Tidewater's second line is a disaster.
Kovalchuk-Sundin look weird together, and I’m not sure how that line would work because they both like to carry the puck. Hyland on the RW doesn’t help either because he’s more of a goal-scorer,
so now you have three guys on a line who are all more goal scorers than they are playmakers. There isn't nearly enough puck to go around, and who's going to be the set-up man? There’s also no one on this line to compensate for the defensive liability that is Ilya Kovalchuk. Not to mention, Sundin and Kovalchuk have both always struck me as guys with “vanilla” personalities. Especially Kovalchuk, his heart, desire to win, and at times lack of effort have always been in question.
Vancouver has a HUGE advantage at center, Gilmour is considered by many to be a top-100 player of all-time, he's in a different league compared to Sundin, and will be so much more effective than Sundin. I'm also pretty sure that Vancouver has the better RW, unless VCL and ALB can present a compelling argument for why Hyland is better than Bauer. I'd like to see how he ranks in scoring finishes next to his contemporaries (in other leagues as well). Kovalchuk is the better left winger on these lines. I seriously question his heart though, especially compared to Theo Fleury who brings a lot of character, heart, grit, and defense. It's kind of ironic comparing these guys actually, because Fleury is the anti-thesis of Kovalchuk. Not to mention, Fleury has a CLUTCH playoff record and Kovalchuk doesn't really have one at all.
Vancouver has the better second line because Gilmour is soooo much better than Sundin, Bauer is better than Hyland, Gilmour/Fleury have more heart, better playoff records, and are far more complete players than Kovalchuk/Sundin are. Vancouver's 2nd line will also benefit from playing with their new ATD linemates, whereas the Tidewater 2nd line is constructed so poorly that it hurts each of their players individually.