ATD2010 Foster Hewitt 1st round: Toronto St. Pats (1) vs. Edmonton Armadillos (8)

[VanIslander]

The Foster Hewitt Division Quarterfinal Round:


Toronto St. Pats

coach Pete Green

Aurel Joliat - Howie Morenz - Vaclav Nedomansky
Alf Smith - Pavel Datsyuk - Babe Dye
Craig Ramsay - Joel Otto - Blair Russel
Tommy Smith - Buddy O'Connor - Billy Boucher
Billy Hay, Reggie Fleming

Mark Howe - Art Ross
Joe Hall - Pat Egan
Phil Housley - Don Awrey
Hamby Shore

Glenn Hall
Curtis Joseph


vs.


Edmonton Armadillos

coach Mike Keenan

Frank Mahovlich - Mark Messier - Joe Mullen
Paul Kariya - Sidney Crosby - Cam Neely
Brenden Morrow - Keith Primeau - Claude Lemieux
Ryan Smyth - Mel Bridgman - Bill Guerin
Pierre Turgeon, Saku Koivu

Chris Pronger - Brad McCrimmon
Doug Wilson - Adam Foote
Sergei Gonchar - Bill Barilko
Barry Ashbee

Rogie Vachon
Andy Moog​

Click to read more...

 

[VanIslander]

There is the potential for a number 8 seed to upset a number 1 seed. It happens in the NHL and it could one day happen in the ATD.

Look at the Armadillos playoff performers. Claude Lemieux and Chris Pronger raise their play in the postseason. Messier and Crosby are clutch. Vachon could be as hot as any goalie in an important game.

Seriously, this series could go EITHER WAY. I can visualize it happening.

I look forward to some detailed analyses of this match-up!

 

[seventieslord]

On the other hand, Primeau was a brutal playoff performer aside from 2004 and ending one very high profile OT game.

But I agree, I can visualize it happening. For a 1st seed, Toronto is far from perfect. What can/will Edmonton exploit? Will it be enough? We'll see.

 

[Leafs Forever]

Good luck JFF. I admire you coming in and taking over this team, and making it as good as it is.


*Takes gloves off*

This is the exact matchup I wanted in the first round, and for a number of reasons.

First thing that stands out: That is one of the biggest goaltending mismatches in the first round- and that is an aboslutely massive advantage for me, both for the gap between the two, and that goaltending is likely the most important singular position in hockey (well, to me at least). Glenn Hall is an aboslutely elite starter: top-6 goalie to most people, at least. Rogie Vachon should probably be a backup in this. To me, his skaters have to be vastly better to makeup for the gap, and I don't think they are better at all.

Next note: Here's where taking Joel Otto pays off, because he's going to be right in his element facing down Mark Messier. With his great size, strength, and defensive work, he is one of the few well suited for shutting down Messier. And shut him down he did:

The Flames needed someone to put a blanket over hockey's supreme power forward. Can you imagine a monster big enough and strong enough to quiet Messier? Not only would he have to be strong, but he'd have to be intelligent, defensively sound and a good skater. Could such a player exist?

The answer ultimately is no, but the Flames found as close a fit as possible when they signed the fearsome Joel Otto.-Joel Pelletier

Otto faced off against all the top centers in the league, shutting them down defensively and physically abusing them at the same time. But the Messier-Otto war-like grudge matches were classic.

"Those two had some incredible battles. He was the only guy I saw who could physically dominate Mark," said former Oiler Mike Krushelnyski.

When Mark Messier left the Edmonton Oilers to join the New York Rangers, all the eastern conference teams began searching for an Otto-like player to control "the Moose." Many teams tried many players, but nothing worked really until the summer of 1995. Otto himself had become an unrestricted free agent and the Flames didn't have the money to keep him. A bidding war for Otto's services occurred as team's desperately wanted Otto. The Rangers themselves desperately wanted him in order to keep him away from Messier.-Joel Pelletier

Otto was the closest thing to perfect to take on Messier during their era, and clearly other teams knew it. I fully expect Otto to shutdown Messier in this series too, at least much better than any of his lines can take on my top lines (something I'll address later).

Side note: Anyone know where I can find the boxscores for the 1988 playoffs? Hockey Summary Project doesn't cover those.

 

[Leafs Forever]

For convenience, my roster with bios linked. Click on a player to find out more about him:

Head Coach: Pete Green
Captain: Alf Smith
Assistant Captains: Howie Morenz, Craig Ramsay

Aurel Joliat-Howie Morenz(A)-Vaclav Nedomansky
Alf Smith(C) -Pavel Datsyuk-Babe Dye
Craig Ramsay(A)-Joel Otto-Blair Russel
Tommy Smith-Buddy O'Connor-Billy Boucher

Mark Howe-Art Ross
Joe Hall-Pat Egan
Phil Housley-Don Awrey

Glenn Hall
Curtis Joseph

Spares: D/W Hamby Shore, C Billy Hay, LW/D Reggie Fleming

 

[Leafs Forever]

Something I want to address before anyone tries to attack me about it- Glenn Hall in the playoffs.

Much has been made of Glenn Hall's playoff record in the goalie debates. Although he does not step it up to the same degree the other big 7/8 do, I do not feel his performance particularly lowers from his absolutely oustanding regular season play, on a whole over his career. More often than not, I think it was team play in front of him that led to some lacklustre statistics.

I went into the globe and mail archives to research in detail a few of his more questionable series, and try to show he was a great playoff performers, and oftentimes the skaters on his team had more to do with the goals against than him.

Volume I-The Detroit Years- http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=22327576&postcount=47

Volume II-1963- http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=22470773&postcount=6

Volume III-1964- http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=22810838&postcount=156

I doubt I continue this series this time (maybe in the summer at some point). But, I feel these detailed account support my point- Glenn Hall could be and was a great playoff performer (which his Conn smythe run as well as stanley cup year also seem to support) in his own right.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

Quick first look analysis.

I don't mind the goalie matchup. Come post season the difference between Hall and Vachon isn't as large as it is during the regular season.

I like how my defense corps matches up with his.

I'll gladly play my Crosby line striaght up against Datsyuk and his line.

Anytime Housley is on the ice, he will get punished. By game 3 at the latest he'll be a turnover machine.

The longer the series goes, the better my team will get. I definitely have the bigger, stronger and more physical team.

Re: Otto vs. Messier

Playoff meetings

1986 - 7 game victory for Calgary (Steve Smith debacle)
1988 - 4 game sweep for Edmonton
1991 - 7 game victory for Edmonton
1997 - 5 game victory for the Flyers over the Rangers

In a number of those other seasons during the 80's the Flames were bounced early and didn't play the Oilers.

In 1997 Otto didn't play against Messier. The Flyers had Lindros match-up against Messier. Otto played against Gretzky (and didn't fare all that well).

 

[John Flyers Fan]

If we're going to bring up sketchy playoff records as it pertains to Keith Primeau (fair, although I'm not putting him in a role, where he'll need to score) lets take a closer look at Pavel Datsyuk's record.

He's been to the playoffs 7 times, and has had 2 good playoff runs.

In the other 5 years ... 58 playoff games ... 4 goals.

Crosby 51 playoff games ... 25 goals and 68 points
Datsyuk 100 playoff games ... 23 goals and 65 points

Absolutely no comparison.

 

[jarek]

Crosby has definitely been a much better playoff performer than Datsyuk. In fact, only Malkin has more points per game than Crosby in the playoffs in the last 2 years.

 

[John Flyers Fan]

I thinkmy team is much more built for playoff hockey, with players that raise their game come spring.

A first line with 14 Stanley Cups, and 506 playoff points. Crosby and Neely, both absolutely great postseason performers.

Add in Chris Pronger, Claude Lemieux, Adam Fooet etc. and this team will be ready to go.

 

[jarek]

It's an interesting matchup to say the least. I'm going to need to spend a lot of time to mull this over - AFTER exams. >_<

 

[John Flyers Fan]

Line up change.

Saku Koivu will play in place of Brenden Morrow.

Will add more speed and playmaking to the 3rd line. Also adds another excellent face-off man, penalty killer an dproven playoff performer.

Koivu and Primeau have each played both C and the wing in their careers, and can move back and forth. Lemieux has experience playing both sides as well.

 

[VanIslander]

Saku Koivu will play in place of Brenden Morrow.

Will add more speed and playmaking to the 3rd line. Also adds another excellent face-off man, penalty killer and proven playoff performer.

Koivu and Primeau have each played both C and the wing in their careers, and can move back and forth. Lemieux has experience playing both sides as well.

Primeau played left wing early in his NHL career and can crash the net quicker from there. Primeau-Koivu-C.Lemieux is a good playoff line with intangibles.

Lets take a closer look at Pavel Datsyuk's record. He's been to the playoffs 7 times, and has had 2 good playoff runs. In the other 5 years ... 58 playoff games ... 4 goals.

Yeah, he was earning the 'choker' label his first four postseasons, a true Lady Byng shrinking violet, built for the regular season it was often said, and he sure looked like it. While he has made many people forget those years, the fact is he is 50/50 in the playoffs, and really ought not to be counted on to score goals. But he needn't! With a supreme finisher like Dye on his right wing and a holy terror like Alf on left wing, Datsyuk can concentrate on being the playmaker on the perimeter, he doesn't have to go into traffic, can handle the tight play of playoff hockey.

 

[seventieslord]

If we're going to bring up sketchy playoff records as it pertains to Keith Primeau (fair, although I'm not putting him in a role, where he'll need to score) lets take a closer look at Pavel Datsyuk's record.

He's been to the playoffs 7 times, and has had 2 good playoff runs.

In the other 5 years ... 58 playoff games ... 4 goals.

Crosby 51 playoff games ... 25 goals and 68 points
Datsyuk 100 playoff games ... 23 goals and 65 points

Absolutely no comparison.

Yep, i pointed this out on the main boards not too long ago. The book on Datsyuk's career is not closed yet, but his drop in career PPG between regular season and playoffs is huge, among the biggest of all modern star forwards, in Yashin/Tkachuk/LeClair/Dionne/Nilsson/Selanne/Thornton/Mogilny territory.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Has Chris Pronger now accomplished enough in the playoffs post-lockout to be considered a playoff stud?

My personal opinion is that his "choker" status is totally washed away, but I think it's still premature to call him a "playoff stud."

That said, I think Edmonton's defensemen as a group are better equipped to handle Toronto's forwards.

Which defensemen on Toronto are going to be able to physically stand up to guys like Messier, Mahovlich, and Neely?

 

[Dwight]

Line up change.

Saku Koivu will play in place of Brenden Morrow.

Will add more speed and playmaking to the 3rd line. Also adds another excellent face-off man, penalty killer an dproven playoff performer.

Koivu and Primeau have each played both C and the wing in their careers, and can move back and forth. Lemieux has experience playing both sides as well.

Koivu's an excellent playoffs player. I'm glad to see him picked in the ATD. He'll definitely bring some leadership to that 3rd line, and he's a solid defensive player as well.

 

[arrbez]

Has Chris Pronger now accomplished enough in the playoffs post-lockout to be considered a playoff stud?

Not a comment on anyone in this series, but I've noticed than in general all it seems to take is one great playoff series to forever erase the label of choker. As if people just want to see that a player is capable of raising his game, and aren't too concerned that he didn't do it on a regular basis.

 

[Leafs Forever]

I don't mind the goalie matchup. Come post season the difference between Hall and Vachon isn't as large as it is during the regular season.

The gap between them in the regular season is ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE. The gap between them in the playoffs is still ABOSLUTELY MASSIVE, even if slightly smaller. It is a huge disadvantage against your team. We are talking a 7 time FAST and 4 time SAST goalie vs a 2 time SAST goalie. One is an elite-starter, the other should be a backup. You can't play this off like it's no big deal.

I like how my defense corps matches up with his.

I'll gladly play my Crosby line striaght up against Datsyuk and his line.

I don't mind tme matchup myself. Granted Zetterberg was the primary Crosby man, if my memory doesn't fail to me, Datsyuk played a role in the aboslute shutdown of him in the previous finals.

Anytime Housley is on the ice, he will get punished. By game 3 at the latest he'll be a turnover machine.

Most of his time is on the powerplay- and if you're going to go and try to punish him there, it'll leave you open downlow. Besides this, he has Down Awrey to look after him, and my lineup is loaded with plenty of tough customers as well.

Besides this,

The longer the series goes, the better my team will get. I definitely have the bigger, stronger and more physical team.

Do you have the skill to make the series go that long though?

Frankly, at first glance, I don't see your lineup as significantly tougher. Messier was physicall, however- despite his size, how physical was Mahovlich, really? Mullen seems decent in that regard. Morenz-Joliat, however, are tough customers in their own right, and Nedomansky provides some size too.

On your second line, Kariya and Crosby are not tough. Dye is decent, Datsyuk not tough, and I am confident in Alf Smith to match Neely's toughness.

Saku Koivu on the third line? Not big, don't think him very strong, and not physical. Keith Primeau was pretty good, but Otto was an aboslute beast. Lemieux was tough, but more in an agitating sense.

Your fourthline is likely tougher I grant, but Tommy Smith and Boucher were not shrinking violets themselves.

You have Pronger the beast on defense, but is your defense really that tough once you get past him? Art Ross was himself a fearless player who never backed down from a fight. My second pairing is one of the aboslute toughest in the draft- your second pairing isn't soft, but isn't close to Hall and Egan. Neither Gonchar or Housley is particularly tough, and I am confident in Awrey's ability to match Barliko in that regard.

Re: Otto vs. Messier

Playoff meetings

1986 - 7 game victory for Calgary (Steve Smith debacle)
1988 - 4 game sweep for Edmonton
1991 - 7 game victory for Edmonton
1997 - 5 game victory for the Flyers over the Rangers

In a number of those other seasons during the 80's the Flames were bounced early and didn't play the Oilers.

Right, because the series victors was entirely dependant on who won this matchup

When you have the guys like Messier did in Edmonton, even if you shutdown Messier you can still lose. I've looked at the boxscores of 1986 and 1911 (which I will post)- Messier has a notable drop in production in 1986, not so much in 1991. I don't see 1997 was worth mentioning was both were nearing the end. 1988 was unavailable.

In 1997 Otto didn't play against Messier. The Flyers had Lindros match-up against Messier. Otto played against Gretzky (and didn't fare all that well).

Then why mention the 1997 matchup? Few, if any, fared well against Gretzky.

I thinkmy team is much more built for playoff hockey, with players that raise their game come spring.

A first line with 14 Stanley Cups, and 506 playoff points. Crosby and Neely, both absolutely great postseason performers.

Add in Chris Pronger, Claude Lemieux, Adam Fooet etc. and this team will be ready to go.

You act like my team is filled with chokers.

Howie Morenz and Aurel Joliat were likely the two best players on three cup winning teams- Morenz has a retro conn smythe to his name. Nedomansky's czech's were the only team competitive in a time of soviet domination, and they beat them a few times even.

Dye has a retro conn smythe and cup to his credit, in an aboslutely fantastic performance. (granted, his other years weren't great, but one didn't have much time to rack up pooints if you didn't get to the cup final series). Datsyuk isn't a great a great playoff performer, but neither was Paul Kariya to my knowledge. Alf Smith was one of the leading players on a dynasty, and was a great cup series producer.

Lemieux was a great playoff performer of course, but Otto was great as well, key in the Calgary Flames deep runs and he really stepped up his offense game in them too. Primeau was brutal, Blair Russel unavailable, Koivu was good, but Ramsay was no slouch himself to my knowledge. Egan was 2nd in playoff points in a 5-year stretch as well.

You have

Other than Smyth, I can't say I know much about your guys playoff performances. But O'Connor and Boucher were superb on my fourth line.

Chris Pronger is good in the playoffs, but so if Mark Howe, with 3 top 5's in points amongst defencemen in the playoffs. Art Ross scored a more modest 3 goals in 9 playoff games, but he was quite evidently getting it done on the tough side of things- 46 PIM in the 9 games.

Joe Hall seemed to have been a rather good playoff performer, with 6 goals in 12 cup challenge games and 5 points in 4 NHA playoff games. Glenn Hall, I've addressed.

You've got some great playoff players, but so do I.

Line up change.

Saku Koivu will play in place of Brenden Morrow.

Will add more speed and playmaking to the 3rd line. Also adds another excellent face-off man, penalty killer an dproven playoff performer.

Koivu and Primeau have each played both C and the wing in their careers, and can move back and forth. Lemieux has experience playing both sides as well.

I don't see much improvement, frankly. And Koviu was definetly much more C as far as I know.

Has Chris Pronger now accomplished enough in the playoffs post-lockout to be considered a playoff stud?

My personal opinion is that his "choker" status is totally washed away, but I think it's still premature to call him a "playoff stud."

That said, I think Edmonton's defensemen as a group are better equipped to handle Toronto's forwards.

Which defensemen on Toronto are going to be able to physically stand up to guys like Messier, Mahovlich, and Neely?

Joe Hall? Art Ross? Pat Egan? Don Awrey? My defense core does have a number of guys, I feel, with the toughness and physicality to play against these guys, as well as the good two-way ability.

And I could turn it around and say: What forwards of Edmonton can match my forwards? I'm going to turn the splotlight on that now:

There is another big achilles heel to the Oilers, and that his defense from the forwards. There is not one player who was elite defensively in their time, I think, on Edmonton's forwards. Not one. Some good defensive players, but lacking in the eliteness to take on my forward.

Whom amongst them is to take on my highflying top line? Their topline may be the best bet, but my top line is much better defensively, and though the three maye be solid defensively, they don't have the elite two-way ability. The second line does not really have any defense to speak of. The third line is little different- though Lemieux can hope to get Joliat off his game, Morenz and Nedomansky will eat Primeau and Koivu alive- they don't have the defensive ability to top them.

There isn't really anything much to take on my secondary offensive weapons either. Mahovlich, Kariya, Koivu- who amongst them can stop the sniper Babe Dye? The only hope there would be trying to stop his main playmaker, but as I have home-ice and don't intend to have my second play the Edmonton first, I think Datsyuk should do fine.

Evidently, Edmonton intends to stop all with his defense. But with dreadful goaltending and no elite defensive forwards, I think the defense is all he got- and I don't really think it's elite enough to stop my team from dominating offensively.

----------------

My forwards on the other hand, were well equipped to defend. Morenz and Joliat were one of the best backchecking duo's of their time, and I am confident in their ability to shutdown any line they come up against. Although Dye is bad defensively, he will mainly play against the lower lines, and Koivu and Smyh of Edmonton's bottom-6 aren't really good offensively at this level. Datsyuk and Smith I am very confident in as well to take on any of Edmonton's bottom-9 forwards. Alf Smith should be particularly equipped to have all the toughnessness and nastiness needed for Neely and Lemieux.

My third line can dominate defensively on any one of Edmonton's lines. Ramsay vs Mullen is a massive mismatch, and although he doesn't have ideal toughness for Neely, I think his defensive smarts and positioning will see him so fine against him. Otto was built to take on Messier, and his toughness and defensive work can get Crosby off his game. Russel is also more of a finesse defensive player, which should work well against Kariya and decently against Mahovlich, and was the best defensive player of his time.

Forward defence is a large advantage to my team as well, I feel.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Nedomansky's czech's were the only team competitive in a time of soviet domination, and they beat them a few times even.

Just to nitpick, but Nedomansky defected after the 1974 World Championships. The Czechs won the World Championships in 1972, 1976 and 1977.

So I don't know how much credit you can give him for beating the Soviets.

Though he was a huge part of the Czech team that shocked the Soviets in 1969 (only to lose against an inferior team as they had spent all their energy against the Soviets).

 

[chaosrevolver]

Is anyone else getting tired of the term "absolutely massive." I don't think JFF is playing it off to be no big deal. He's just saying that Vachon stepped it up in big situations, and Hall's record in that situation is a little sketchy.

 

[Leafs Forever]

Is anyone else getting tired of the term "absolutely massive." I don't think JFF is playing it off to be no big deal. He's just saying that Vachon stepped it up in big situations, and Hall's record in that situation is a little sketchy.

"I don't mind the matchup" suggests to me he doesn't see it as a big edge, or not an edge large enough to worry about. But perhaps I misinterpeted what I mean. I just wanted to make the advantage clear after what I saw as an attack on it.

Hall's record I've gone over.

 

[chaosrevolver]

"I don't mind the matchup" suggests to me he doesn't see it as a big edge, or not an edge large enough to worry about. But perhaps I misinterpeted what I mean. I just wanted to make the advantage clear after what I saw as an attack on it.

Hall's record I've gone over.

Or he just doesn't mind the matchup considering the rest of the players in front of his goalie. Yes, Vachon wasn't picked high and is not a top-10 goalie ever...heck he's not top-20..while Hall could be argued in the top-5. But, Vachon's resume is definitely better in the playoffs then regular season, while Hall is the opposite.

 

[Leafs Forever]

Or he just doesn't mind the matchup considering the rest of the players in front of his goalie. Yes, Vachon wasn't picked high and is not a top-10 goalie ever...heck he's not top-20..while Hall could be argued in the top-5. But, Vachon's resume is definitely better in the playoffs then regular season, while Hall is the opposite.

I don't think the playoff resumes make much of a difference, really. Glenn Hall seems to me a goalie who, on whole, didn't step it up, but didn't really get worse either- more-so the victim of his team doing that. Vachon had some great runs (like Hall), but not nearly enough to change the matchup much in my estimation.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm known to be fairly critical of Hall's playoff resume.

But I want a more detailed description of how Vachon "stepped it up" in the playoffs. I see a guy with a resume of 23 wins and 23 losses in the playoffs. A guy who had one single great run early in his career (still playing only 7 of the 13 games his team played in the playoffs that year).

 

[seventieslord]

Not a comment on anyone in this series, but I've noticed than in general all it seems to take is one great playoff series to forever erase the label of choker. As if people just want to see that a player is capable of raising his game, and aren't too concerned that he didn't do it on a regular basis.

I agree. I prefer to look at it as, what average level of elevation are you likely to see.