ATD2010 Foster Hewitt 1st round: McGuire's Monsters (4) vs. Kimberley Dynamiters (5)
- Thread starter VanIslander
- Start date
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
McGuire's Monsters
PP1: Denneny-Dionne-Cook-Lidstrom-Reardon
PP2: Nash-MacKay-Adams-Hollett-Boon
PK1: Carbonneau-Walker-Lidstrom-Ludwig
PK2: MacKay-Hay-Reardon-Abel
vs.
Kimberley Dynamiters
PP 1: Shanahan-Yzerman-Ciccarelli-Kelly-Fedorov
PP 2: Naslund-Hlinka-Vikulov-Patrick-Murphy
PK 1: Fedorov-Lewis-Kelly-Reise Jr.
PK 2: Yzerman-Skov-Davydov-Tregubov
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
Just one thing - Vikulov can't be on the PP if he isn't dressed at even strength. Luckily Detroit... I mean Kimberley has other options.
No kidding eh?
Of eligible players (ie: guys who played in the NHL at a time when the Red Wings existed), I count 5 players who never suited up for Detroit: Richards, Naslund, Mondou, Pappin, and Hlinka (who barely played in the NHL).
This might be the most complete collection of one team's players we've ever seen in the ATD.
Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
- 9,174
- 14,543
MCGUIRE WINS IF:
Third line steps up.
Both teams are fairly top heavy, in the sense that their most dangerous scorers are on their first line. Walker-Carbonneau-Tremblay is one of the best checking lines in the draft and, more importantly, it matches up well against Kimberely’s top line:
- Walker was a fast, cerebral player and was one of the best defensive forwards of his era; he should match up well against Fedorov.
- Nobody can shut down Yzerman, but Carbonneau, one of the top five or ten defensive centres in history, will at least slow him down.
-Shanahan may give Tremblay some trouble due to his size and strength, but Tremblay will match his competitiveness and aggression.
If the third line can contain Kimberly’s top line, I don’t see the rest of the Dynamiters generating enough offense to win the series.
Cook matchup.
Cook is McGuire’s best forward and will need to take advantage of an opponent that is not particularly strong down the left wing. (Cook, when he played in the NHL from 1927 to 1933, kept pace with Morenz and outscored Boucher, Stewart, Joliat, etc… despite doing this at ages 30-36, when many other stars from this era didn’t even play). Who covers Cook? Shanahan is not suited for a shutdown role; Naslund is poor defensively; Mondou was okay but nothing special. There’s some evidence that Lewis was good defensively (source) but it seems like he may be in over his head against Cook.
KIMBERLY WINS IF
Bowman gives Yzerman free reign.
As we all know, Bowman helped transform Yzerman from a dominant scorer into a balanced, two-way player. In order to win this series, Bowman will have to let #19 play the high-risk offensive style he did in the eighties and early nineties. If we assume that Yzerman plays safer, two-way hockey, McGuire would have an overwhelming advantage in offense from their top line (Denneny will outscore Shanahan, Cook will outscore Fedorov, and Dionne will outscore two-way Yzerman). However, if Yzerman, in his offensive prime, plays, not only will he match Dionne’s output, his deft playmaking will elevate his linemates, so the offensive gap is at least partially closed. Will Bowman be willing to let Yzerman revert back into the dominant one-way threat he once was?
Exploit slower defensemen.
Ken Reardon is at a disadvantage in this series due to his poor skating (source 1) (source 2). I’d imagine Reardon will play around 25 minutes per game – will he be able to contain the blazing speed of Fedorov, Yzerman and Lewis? Red Kelly was an outstanding playmaking defensemen and was great at generating transition offense – this creates further problems for McGuire, as a perceptive blueliner can maximize use of his forward’s speed. I’m not sure how much ice time he’ll receive, but Craig Ludwig was notoriously slow skater, and would also be vulnerable in this series. It may be more difficult for Kimberly to get these matchups (as McGuire has home ice advantage), but if any coach can make the most this, it’s Bowman.
"INTERESTING"
It will be interesting to see Lidstrom play against his long-time coach and so many of his former teammates. It's also interesting to see him play against Red Kelly (the Lidstrom of the 1950's) -- the two were nearly identical in style and results.
This is one of the closest 4/5 matchups I can remember.
Third line steps up.
Both teams are fairly top heavy, in the sense that their most dangerous scorers are on their first line. Walker-Carbonneau-Tremblay is one of the best checking lines in the draft and, more importantly, it matches up well against Kimberely’s top line:
- Walker was a fast, cerebral player and was one of the best defensive forwards of his era; he should match up well against Fedorov.
- Nobody can shut down Yzerman, but Carbonneau, one of the top five or ten defensive centres in history, will at least slow him down.
-Shanahan may give Tremblay some trouble due to his size and strength, but Tremblay will match his competitiveness and aggression.
If the third line can contain Kimberly’s top line, I don’t see the rest of the Dynamiters generating enough offense to win the series.
Cook matchup.
Cook is McGuire’s best forward and will need to take advantage of an opponent that is not particularly strong down the left wing. (Cook, when he played in the NHL from 1927 to 1933, kept pace with Morenz and outscored Boucher, Stewart, Joliat, etc… despite doing this at ages 30-36, when many other stars from this era didn’t even play). Who covers Cook? Shanahan is not suited for a shutdown role; Naslund is poor defensively; Mondou was okay but nothing special. There’s some evidence that Lewis was good defensively (source) but it seems like he may be in over his head against Cook.
KIMBERLY WINS IF
Bowman gives Yzerman free reign.
As we all know, Bowman helped transform Yzerman from a dominant scorer into a balanced, two-way player. In order to win this series, Bowman will have to let #19 play the high-risk offensive style he did in the eighties and early nineties. If we assume that Yzerman plays safer, two-way hockey, McGuire would have an overwhelming advantage in offense from their top line (Denneny will outscore Shanahan, Cook will outscore Fedorov, and Dionne will outscore two-way Yzerman). However, if Yzerman, in his offensive prime, plays, not only will he match Dionne’s output, his deft playmaking will elevate his linemates, so the offensive gap is at least partially closed. Will Bowman be willing to let Yzerman revert back into the dominant one-way threat he once was?
Exploit slower defensemen.
Ken Reardon is at a disadvantage in this series due to his poor skating (source 1) (source 2). I’d imagine Reardon will play around 25 minutes per game – will he be able to contain the blazing speed of Fedorov, Yzerman and Lewis? Red Kelly was an outstanding playmaking defensemen and was great at generating transition offense – this creates further problems for McGuire, as a perceptive blueliner can maximize use of his forward’s speed. I’m not sure how much ice time he’ll receive, but Craig Ludwig was notoriously slow skater, and would also be vulnerable in this series. It may be more difficult for Kimberly to get these matchups (as McGuire has home ice advantage), but if any coach can make the most this, it’s Bowman.
"INTERESTING"
It will be interesting to see Lidstrom play against his long-time coach and so many of his former teammates. It's also interesting to see him play against Red Kelly (the Lidstrom of the 1950's) -- the two were nearly identical in style and results.
This is one of the closest 4/5 matchups I can remember.
Dreakmur
Registered User
First Lines:
- While Dionne and Yzerman are pretty comparable, the wingers are a huge advantage in my team's favour.
- Offensively, Dionne is very far ahead of Yzerman. Even if you want to ignore Gretzky and Lemieux, Dionne's finished are far more impressive. In the play-offs, Yzerman has a better offensive resume than Dionne, but a lot of that has been supplimented by being on a team that was good enough to go deep. In 1998, for example, he led the play-offs in assists but was only 9th in assists per game. Dionne, on the other hand, was 2nd, 5th, and 9th in goals per game in the play-offs. As I hope I showed in my bio, Marcel Dionne is a victim of playing for bad teams rather than a poor play-off performer.
- Luckily, I have two wingers who should help ward off any questions concerning Dionne. Both are strong 1st line wingers as well as excellent play-off performers.
- Overall, I'd give myself a pretty decent edge.
Second Lines:
- The wingers on these lines are pretty even. Lewis and Hay are similar players - both guys could play solid 2-way hockey while putting up points. Hay put up more impressive scoring numers, so, to me, that makes him the better player. On the other side, Hossa and Aurie put up similar offensive numbers. Hossa is better defensively and Aurie is grittier. Personally, I have Aurie ahead of Hoss. Overall, the differences are small, and they cancel each other out.
- Center is where I feel I have a bog advantage. I must admit I don't know a whole lot about him other than his point totals and a few short bios. He put up some pretty solid offensive numbers in the Czech league, but that's just the Czech league. MacKay's finishes are pretty similar, so it depends on how strong people think the PCHA and Czech leagues are. In addition to the offense, though, MacKay was able to play elite level defensive hockey. To me, that shoots him ahead of Hlinka.
- Overall, I'd have to give myself the edge again.
Third Lines:
- Since Kinberly's 4th line appears to be their checking line, I'll compare checking lines.
- As many others have stated (and I appreciate it), Walker and Carbonneau is one of the strongest shut-down duos in this draft. Perhaps Tremblay isn't the greatest 3rd liner, but I see him as no worse than mediocre in his spot. Compare Tremblay to othre 3rd line RW, and there are many better, but also many worse.
- Mondou, Skov, and Pappin are pretty weak as a checking line. All three guys are suited to the role, but I just can't see them shutting down ATD first lines with any sort of success.
- This, to me, is the biggest mismatch of this series, and I'd have to give my team a big edge here.
Fourth Lines:
- Both your wingers are probably 2nd liners - very impressive. Markus Naslund, even if it was just a few years, was one of the best players in the world. Even though Nash, to me, is better suited for a 4th line role, Naslund's peak is too good. Dino Ciccarelli is my favourite player of all time
Even though he's good enough to play 2nd line, I think he's perfect for a 4th line role. Even though I think Cully Wilson is a great 4th liner, Dino's better.
- At center, Brad Richards is a solid guy. He plays a great 2-way game, can play multiple pusitions, can play special teams, and can put up points. Jack Adams does all of that and then adds a physical presence!
- Overall, Kimberly gets the edge.
- While Dionne and Yzerman are pretty comparable, the wingers are a huge advantage in my team's favour.
- Offensively, Dionne is very far ahead of Yzerman. Even if you want to ignore Gretzky and Lemieux, Dionne's finished are far more impressive. In the play-offs, Yzerman has a better offensive resume than Dionne, but a lot of that has been supplimented by being on a team that was good enough to go deep. In 1998, for example, he led the play-offs in assists but was only 9th in assists per game. Dionne, on the other hand, was 2nd, 5th, and 9th in goals per game in the play-offs. As I hope I showed in my bio, Marcel Dionne is a victim of playing for bad teams rather than a poor play-off performer.
- Luckily, I have two wingers who should help ward off any questions concerning Dionne. Both are strong 1st line wingers as well as excellent play-off performers.
- Overall, I'd give myself a pretty decent edge.
Second Lines:
- The wingers on these lines are pretty even. Lewis and Hay are similar players - both guys could play solid 2-way hockey while putting up points. Hay put up more impressive scoring numers, so, to me, that makes him the better player. On the other side, Hossa and Aurie put up similar offensive numbers. Hossa is better defensively and Aurie is grittier. Personally, I have Aurie ahead of Hoss. Overall, the differences are small, and they cancel each other out.
- Center is where I feel I have a bog advantage. I must admit I don't know a whole lot about him other than his point totals and a few short bios. He put up some pretty solid offensive numbers in the Czech league, but that's just the Czech league. MacKay's finishes are pretty similar, so it depends on how strong people think the PCHA and Czech leagues are. In addition to the offense, though, MacKay was able to play elite level defensive hockey. To me, that shoots him ahead of Hlinka.
- Overall, I'd have to give myself the edge again.
Third Lines:
- Since Kinberly's 4th line appears to be their checking line, I'll compare checking lines.
- As many others have stated (and I appreciate it), Walker and Carbonneau is one of the strongest shut-down duos in this draft. Perhaps Tremblay isn't the greatest 3rd liner, but I see him as no worse than mediocre in his spot. Compare Tremblay to othre 3rd line RW, and there are many better, but also many worse.
- Mondou, Skov, and Pappin are pretty weak as a checking line. All three guys are suited to the role, but I just can't see them shutting down ATD first lines with any sort of success.
- This, to me, is the biggest mismatch of this series, and I'd have to give my team a big edge here.
Fourth Lines:
- Both your wingers are probably 2nd liners - very impressive. Markus Naslund, even if it was just a few years, was one of the best players in the world. Even though Nash, to me, is better suited for a 4th line role, Naslund's peak is too good. Dino Ciccarelli is my favourite player of all time
Even though he's good enough to play 2nd line, I think he's perfect for a 4th line role. Even though I think Cully Wilson is a great 4th liner, Dino's better.- At center, Brad Richards is a solid guy. He plays a great 2-way game, can play multiple pusitions, can play special teams, and can put up points. Jack Adams does all of that and then adds a physical presence!
- Overall, Kimberly gets the edge.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Yeah, there aren't many first lines that would be better than Kimberly's, but McGuires has one of them.
Kimberly's 2nd line stands out as awfully weak offensively.
Kimberly's 2nd line stands out as awfully weak offensively.
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
I assumed that Kimberley was using its first line as its checking line and giving the fourth line limited even strength minutes. That would be consistent with the way Bowman coached the Red Wings.
Some clarification would be helpful, though.
Some clarification would be helpful, though.
Last edited:
Dreakmur
Registered User
First Pairng:
- While both Lidstrom and Kelly are both top end #1s as well as elite offensive defensemen. Only Lidstrom, though, is elite defensively. Also, their peaks are pretty similar, but Lidstrom has much more longevity and career value. Not sure there's many who'd disagree that Lidstrom is better.
- Reardon brings a huge physical presence as well as very good offensive pop - he's a strong #2. Reise is solid, but he's more of a #4 guy.
- Overall, I'd give myself a pretty good edge here.
Second Pairing:
- Murphy is a very unspectacular puck-mover, who is also pretty solid defesively. Hollett is better offensively, but was likely weaker defensively. I'd say they're pretty even.
- I must admit that I don't know much about Davydov other than he was a solid defensive defenseman for the Soviets. Was he a swift skater to make up for Murphy? Abel is a huge physical presence and shut-down defender. Seventies dug up some information suggesting he was not a poor skater, so I think that helps. Untill I see some more info on Davydov, I think I have to call this about even.
- These pairs are pretty even.
Third Pairing:
- Frank Patick on a 3rd pairing? That's not fair
He's got the offense and physical play to be a solid 2nd pairing guy. I don't know much about Tregubov aside from the fact he was Sologubov's partner. I assume he's a defensive guy, and if so, this is a balance pair.
- Boon was a swift-skating, puck-moving defenseman who could also get it done defensively. Ludwig is a big, slow, shut-down defenseman. They should balance out eachother nicely.
- Overall, I think both are good 3rd pairs, but Patrick is much better thn either of my guys, so advantage goes to Kimberly.
- While both Lidstrom and Kelly are both top end #1s as well as elite offensive defensemen. Only Lidstrom, though, is elite defensively. Also, their peaks are pretty similar, but Lidstrom has much more longevity and career value. Not sure there's many who'd disagree that Lidstrom is better.
- Reardon brings a huge physical presence as well as very good offensive pop - he's a strong #2. Reise is solid, but he's more of a #4 guy.
- Overall, I'd give myself a pretty good edge here.
Second Pairing:
- Murphy is a very unspectacular puck-mover, who is also pretty solid defesively. Hollett is better offensively, but was likely weaker defensively. I'd say they're pretty even.
- I must admit that I don't know much about Davydov other than he was a solid defensive defenseman for the Soviets. Was he a swift skater to make up for Murphy? Abel is a huge physical presence and shut-down defender. Seventies dug up some information suggesting he was not a poor skater, so I think that helps. Untill I see some more info on Davydov, I think I have to call this about even.
- These pairs are pretty even.
Third Pairing:
- Frank Patick on a 3rd pairing? That's not fair
He's got the offense and physical play to be a solid 2nd pairing guy. I don't know much about Tregubov aside from the fact he was Sologubov's partner. I assume he's a defensive guy, and if so, this is a balance pair.- Boon was a swift-skating, puck-moving defenseman who could also get it done defensively. Ludwig is a big, slow, shut-down defenseman. They should balance out eachother nicely.
- Overall, I think both are good 3rd pairs, but Patrick is much better thn either of my guys, so advantage goes to Kimberly.
Dreakmur
Registered User
Goaltenders:
- Thompson is about middle of the pack in terms of starters, while Vezina is in the top of the bottom 3rd. Thompson had some fantastic play-off runs as well as some weak ones, and Vezina was kind of the same. Overall, Thompson is stronger, but not by a whole lot.
- Rayner, to me, is the best back-up in the draft. Despite not winning a Cup, he has a Conn Smythe. Vernon has a Conn Smythe too, but overall, Raynor is the better goal.
- Overall, Thompson's the best goalie in the series, so his team has to get the edge.
Coaching:
- Even though I think Bowman is over-rated, he's definately the best coach in the draft. Adams, as good as I think he is, isn't on Bowman's level.
- Kimberly has a big edge here.
Special Teams:- My first PP, I think, is extremely scary! With one of the stronger 1st lines and some very good offensive defensemen, it makes sense that I can assemble a good unit.
- The second PP.... not so much. MacKay and Hollett will really have to crry the offensive load there. I think they can do the job, but it's nothing more than average.
- Kimberly's second PP is one of the best. Murphy and Patrick are very strong on the points.
- My first PK unit, I think, is one of the best in the draft. Carbonneau, Walker, and Lidstrom are among the very elite PKers in the draft, and, while Ludwig isn't on their level, he's still a good PKer who can clear the crease and block shots. The Carbonnuea/Ludwig chemistry is a nice bonus. I really like Kimberly's first unit, but they aren't on level with mine.
- With Yzerman on the second PK unit, Kimberly has a huge offensive threat on the PK. That's one of the reasons I like MacKay so much.... he can counter-attack on the PK.... but he's just not nearly as good as Yzerman.
- Thompson is about middle of the pack in terms of starters, while Vezina is in the top of the bottom 3rd. Thompson had some fantastic play-off runs as well as some weak ones, and Vezina was kind of the same. Overall, Thompson is stronger, but not by a whole lot.
- Rayner, to me, is the best back-up in the draft. Despite not winning a Cup, he has a Conn Smythe. Vernon has a Conn Smythe too, but overall, Raynor is the better goal.
- Overall, Thompson's the best goalie in the series, so his team has to get the edge.
Coaching:
- Even though I think Bowman is over-rated, he's definately the best coach in the draft. Adams, as good as I think he is, isn't on Bowman's level.
- Kimberly has a big edge here.
Special Teams:- My first PP, I think, is extremely scary! With one of the stronger 1st lines and some very good offensive defensemen, it makes sense that I can assemble a good unit.
- The second PP.... not so much. MacKay and Hollett will really have to crry the offensive load there. I think they can do the job, but it's nothing more than average.
- Kimberly's second PP is one of the best. Murphy and Patrick are very strong on the points.
- My first PK unit, I think, is one of the best in the draft. Carbonneau, Walker, and Lidstrom are among the very elite PKers in the draft, and, while Ludwig isn't on their level, he's still a good PKer who can clear the crease and block shots. The Carbonnuea/Ludwig chemistry is a nice bonus. I really like Kimberly's first unit, but they aren't on level with mine.
- With Yzerman on the second PK unit, Kimberly has a huge offensive threat on the PK. That's one of the reasons I like MacKay so much.... he can counter-attack on the PK.... but he's just not nearly as good as Yzerman.
Dreakmur
Registered User
Hollett's offense is scary.....
Points - 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 9th
Play-offs - 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 5th
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Yeah. Murphy's Norris voting record against absolutely unreal competition is very strong. Hollett's not in his league.
We were thinking of taking Murphy in this draft. At the time he was taken, he had a Norris voting record of something like 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 with already-selected players excluded.
Dreakmur
Registered User
Offensively, it's not close. Murphy's all-around play does closse the gap.... but Hollett has a big offensive edge.
Care to substantiate the offensively not close, with competition also factored?
And what aboust all-star team's and award voting?
And what aboust all-star team's and award voting?
Dreakmur
Registered User
I'm not researching Kimberly's players for him.
Regardless of competition, how many defensemen have 7 top-2s in scoring? A dozen maybe?
Does voting make him better offensively?
Well, if you're making the claim of much better offense, I would think you'd have a reasonable idea of what exactly Murphy's offense was.
Voting doesn't make him better offensively ,but if Murphy blows Hollet out of the water in that regard, chances are he blows him out of the water overall, no matter the offensive advantage Hollet has.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
No, it's not close if you're a slave to a rankings-based system. If you look at the numbers with better context, then they are pretty close. (keep in mind this doesn't irk me NEARLY as much as touting 8th-10th-place finishes among defensemen - with 32% as many points as 2nd place - as being significant, because Hollett was so frequently 1st or 2nd)
Murphy had a pretty massive outlier during most of his offensive peak in Paul Coffey - and there is no one from Hollett's time who can even come close - agree? Good.
So, let's compare their point totals percentage-wise to the #2 offensive defenseman in Hollett's time, and the #3 in Coffey's time. What do their ten-best seasons look like?
......Aw, crap, I would have done this myself but I forgot my USB cable for my phone today. It's how I access all my files easily, and I can't go poring through hockey-reference.com right now. You could do it, though, it would not take very long. Just be careful in Hollett's time to include guys like Goodfellow and Clapper in the years they apply.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
yes, the voting makes him better. The same case could be made for Phil Housley - "He's better offensively, Murphy is better defensively, so they're about even" - it doesn't work that way. How much better? And what did the people who watched them play all year think?
Dreakmur
Registered User
It's pretty safe to say he doesn't have 7 top-2s. If memory serves, he has about that many top-10s.
Murphy's got 3 second team all-stars.
Hollett's got 1 first and 1 second team all-star, as well as a 4th in Hart voting.
Hollett has zero Norris votes - guess why...
Dreakmur
Registered User
Maybe you'd like to look at Hollett's peak years compared to Murphy's? Hollett's first in regular season and play-off scoring.
Take out Coffey, and it's still not close.
For the first part of Hollett's prime, he had Eddie Shore to content with.
Feel free.
Dreakmur
Registered User
Who here watched Flash Hollett play, and can attest to his playing style?
From what I've seen, nobody has found any enecdotal evidence suggesting Hollett was either good or bad defensively, so I don't think that Housley comparison is completely fair.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
The number of times he was among the two-highest scoring defensemen in the NHL but not voted to be one of the four best overall is still troubling, is it not?
(and that's fine if you don't want to do the comparison, I can do it tonight at home - Murphy will not win the comparison either way, but it will demonstrate that he was close)
Dreakmur
Registered User
The fact that he was Eddie Shore's, and then Dit Clappers' partner didn't help him. Just like Hap Day playing alongside King Clancy, when you're the second best defenseman on your team, it's pretty tough to get votes.
Dreakmur
Registered User
You can look at Flash Hollett from 1945 and back, anywhere from 5 to 11 years, and he’s the most dominant offensive defenseman.
1935-1945
1st in Points and Points per Game
1st in Goals and Goals per Game
1936-1945
1st in Points and Points per Game
1st in Goals and Goals per Game
1937-1945
2nd in Points and 1st Points per Game
1st in Goals and Goals per Game
1938-1945
1st in Points and Points per Game
1st in Goals and Goals per Game
1939-1945
1st in Points and Points per Game
1st in Goals and Goals per Game
1940-1945
1st in Points and Points per Game
1st in Goals and Goals per Game
The 1940s were Hollett’s strongest years, but even if you just look at the 1930s, he’s still one of the most dominant offensive defenseman!
1935-1939
2nd in Points and Points per Game (behind Eddie Shore)
2nd in Goals and 1st in Goals per Game
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