RIP Milt Dunnell. His contribution to hockey was remarkable.
To start off on the strategy discussion, I'll address HO's points first. It'll be important because (I believe) Montreal has home-ice advantage, so they will have the edge in getting the matchups they want.
Strategy
I will match up my top line against Nanaimo’s fourth line. This has several advantages. First, Cournoyer will be matched up against Kilrea. Aside from 1930 (the fluky year with the one-time rule changes), Kilrea was never much of a scoring threat. Therefore this matchup will allow Cournoyer to fully utilize his speed and goal-scoring ability; he can go deep into the Clippers’ offensive zone. Cournoyer will be able to take on a very aggressive offensive role given the lack of a counter-attack from Kilrea. Second, this allows Simmer to matchup against Nesterenko. I realize the latter is a good defensive forward, but Simmer's game is quite simple – he plants himself in the crease and waits for rebounds, tips and screens. Simmer is quite disciplined (in fact, Nesterenko took penalties at a significantly higher rate than Simmer, which could easily turn a PP into a 2-man advantage if Nesterenko isn't careful). Simmer has a 25 lbs advantage on Nesterenko, who will have a hard time moving him from the crease. Finally, Lalone matches up against Skov. While Skov was a key player on the Wings’ dynasty, it will be difficult for him to contain Lalonde’s speed, toughness and stickhandling ability. (Keep in mind that Leswick and Pavelich usually got the really hard tasks on the Wings dynasty i.e. shutting down Rocket Richard).
Though Kilrea-Skov-Nesterenko isn't a top-notch checking line, I feel they have the personnel to effectively matchup against Montreal's top line. Cournoyer's biggest threat is his tremendous speed, so having Kilrea to match up against him is vital. Kilrea was one of the, if not the, fastest skaters in the league during his time (according to Ultimate Hockey he set the fastest skater record in the 30's). Even ignoring his outlier year, he was a fairly consistent offensive threat and even had another top-10 goal scoring finish.
While Nesterenko did earn his share of penalties, he was also a very reliable PKer for many years with the Blackhawks. I can't imagine him being a liability to draw a penalty on the PK. He was also a very belligerent player and wasn't afraid to drop the gloves - which probably factors in to his inflated PIM totals.
Again, while Leswick and Pavelich were better defensive players, Skov was responsible for shutting down centers who play tough games like Lalonde in Schmidt, Lach and Teeder Kennedy. Lalonde was a faster skater than the three, but Skov should be able to keep up defensively and physically.
Our fourth line will likely play around 8-10 minutes a night, so the rest of the time I expect to have either Prentice-Weiland-Rousseau or the Nighbor line on the ice against the Lalonde line. I feel as though Lalonde is the real catalyst for that line, and effectively limiting his offensive freedom will be the key to limiting their production.
I will match our second lines straight across. As discussed before, my second line has better personnel at each forward position (except possibly LW). Smith and Ratelle are the two best scorers on either line; Hadfield should match Stevens’ physical play, and Smith and Ratelle should match Nighbor’s defensive play.
I'd say that's debateable. Nighbor finished in the top-10 scorers 4 times (to Smith's six I believe) but also had a couple of great seasons in the NHA. At worst I'd say they are comparable offensively.
I also think that Stevens and Litzenberger were sufficiently better offensively than Hadfield to mitigate some of that advantage.
The Clippers are unique because their best offensive player is a defenseman. I was considering splitting up Potvin and Howell but I’ve decided to keep them together, and on the ice versus Orr. Whenever Orr rushes with the puck, Potvin will have two tasks. First, he will try to neutralize Orr’s offense via bodychecking or dropping the gloves. Given that Potvin is one of the few physical players in the draft that can keep up with Orr, #4 will face a physical pounding that he never had to face before, either in the NHL or in the ATD. Second, Potvin will be aggressive and will try to take the puck away and rush up ice as soon as possible. Potvin’s excellent speed can create odd-man rushes against Benedict; Orr was a terrific skater but even he would have a hard time catching up to Potvin and my speedy forwards if they have a head start. (McCrimmon was a good player but speed was never his strength, so defending a Potvin-led counterattack will be especially difficult). Potvin was (arrogantly, though somewhat justifiably) angry that Orr was chosen as MVP at the 1976 Canada Cup and spent his entire career being (unfairly) compared to Orr. I’m sure he’d love the chance to prove he can keep up with #4, and I’d bet he’d be willing to drop the gloves. (I’d hate to lose Potvin for five minutes, but Orr would be a bigger loss to Nanaimo).
In the event that Potvin gets out of position looking for a check (a rarity), or gets caught on his rush, keep in mind that Harry Howell, the dependable positional blueliner, will play more conservatively and will be back in his zone on time. In short, if Orr wants to rush, he must be prepared for Potvin’s physical play and the likelihood of odd-man rushes against. This should limit Nanaimo's offense considerably.
My third line will also stay on the ice against Orr (presumably Nanaimo is playing their top line at the same time). Primeau is a very good forward, but Doug Jarvis spent his entire career shutting down the league’s centres, including Clarke, Ratelle and Sittler, often as the key defensive centre on a dynasty. This is a good matchup for the Canadiens because Primeau and Jarvis are both small and disciplined (this prevents Jarvis from getting outmatched against a larger, more physical centre). Marcotte will get a very tough opponent in Conacher, but they match up well. Marcotte, like Conacher, was a tough, physical player. Marcotte was a very aggressive checker and fighter. This means that Marcotte will be able to stand up to Conacher’s strength, and can wear him down physical due to his aggressive style. Also, Marcotte was surprisingly disciplined (317 PIM in 868 games) while Conacher took 523 PIM in 460 games; Marcotte’s intense physical play and agitation will likely force Conacher into taking some foolish penalties, removing Nanaimo’s second-best player for good portions of the game. Keep in mind that Marcotte helped contain Gordie Howe in the second round.
I like the way this matchup plays out for the Clippers:
1) Having Potvin-Howell on the ice for the bulk of their ice time trying to shut down Orr and our top line limits Potvin's ability to catalyze their offense other than on the PP.
2) The worry of the counter-attack against Orr's offensive pressure is limited by the offensive abilities of Marcotte-Jarvis-Martin. Though Potvin may be able to create transition offense, having those players involved in the play is much less worrisome than having to face either of Montreal's top two lines.
As for our strategies:
1) We'll look to get our top line out against Bonin-Murray-Shack as much as possible. Bonin and Shack are more known for being physical diggers with an offensive touch. For that reason, having our top line out against them gives us the best chance of creating offense against the Canadiens.
2) With Kuzkin in the lineup mostly as a PP specialist, Orr and Conacher will get double shifted quite a bit, and will likely combine for nearly the whole game on the left side at ES/PK. Just to reiterate, because of this imbalance in ice-time between the right and left side, Orr and Conacher will likely have two different partners through the game (as they have all draft). Conacher will be on the ice against the Hadfield/Smith to act as the physical presence defensively. He will see a fair bit of ice time with Hitchman when this line is on the ice to have two strong physical defensemen on the ice.
Hap Day will likely see more ice-time against the top unit of Montreal. He is a quicker blueliner than either McCrimmon or Hitchman and is very positionally sound. I feel more comfortable with him on the ice to matchup with the speed of the top line.
3) Prentice-Weiland-Rousseau is a much more offensively competent line than either of Montreal's bottom two and represents a competitive advantage for Nanaimo. They will be able to keep either of Montreal's top-two lines honest defensively while providing very solid defense.
I think the advantages that Orr and our third line give us offensively (with Potvin being relied upon more defensively) are the competitive advantages that we can utilize to take the series.
