My colleague has already explained our overall strategy quite nicely. We will seek to match 1st/3rd lines when on home ice (our 1st vs. their 3rd, etc.), but will match 2nd and 4th lines straight across. My own impressions:
Goaltending:
As Nalyd said, it is a wash. Holecek is not merely a "top 5 Czech goalie"; he is a very solid 2nd (what is the other competition - Dzurilla, whose starting job Jiri stole for most of a decade? No chance of that) behind Hasek and there is no sense in arguing which of Gardiner and Holecek is better because they're awfully close. If we must get into a debate about goalies, I've got plenty more to say about Holecek (few of the GMs here know the stories of the Czech triumphs over the Soviet Union - there was a lot of drama and probably bigger games than any Cup finals because of the political pressure), but I respect Gardiner and think it's essentially a waste of time.
Secondary scoring:
Again, GBC seems to think that Oakland cannot score past the top line (it's the only thing I can conclude from his statements about the Gretzky line being the absolute key to victory for the Seals), but that is absolutely untrue. Oakland has the best depth scoring of any team remaining in the league, and can easily survive a team that places all its eggs in one basket to check Gretzky and Bathgate, as Dubai did in the last round. The argument that the Seals beat Dubai because "the Gretzky line went off last round" in reference to how Jungosi chose to write up the series (Oakland's 3rd and 4th lines registering zero points) is pretty silly. No offense, GNC, but that's no argument, at all. A write-up is a write-up. Who knows why the voters voted as they did? HO, at the very least, seems to have a healthy respect for Oakland's depth scoring, and I suspect that other GMs do, as well.
Kariya, Federko, Dillon and Phillips are all prime secondary scorers, and Adams and Stuart are talented, as well. And that doesn't even take into account the 3rd line, which in addition to being a high-end checking unit, also has the horses to launch very effective counterattacks against defensively indifferent units (like, for example, Blake - Taylor - Lafleur), especially given the offensive talent of Oakland's defensemen. Actually, Blake and Taylor will both backcheck
a bit (though neither is a defensive dynamo), but Lafleur was a complete cherry picker. Holik - Lafleur - Finnigan is arguably the most offensively talented 3rd line in the league (though I'm sure GMs in Aurora and New Jersey might have something to say about that) and will score in the counterattack against any line that sells out for offense.
Gretzky and Bathgate can afford not to backcheck much (though Syd Howe was actually a very good backchecker) because who on Victoria's 3rd line will hurt them going the other way...MacTavish? Victoria's 3rd line cannot mount a credible counterattack, while Oakland's has three guys who all possess excellent speed and know what to do with the puck in the offensive zone. Edgar Laprade is specifically mentioned in his HHOF bio as being good at exactly this:
Blessed with exceptional lateral mobility and an effortless skating style, he was a brilliant penalty killer and determined checker. Laprade could also score and was one of the league's most dangerous skaters on the counterattack.
Simply put, even if Victoria is able to match the Gretzky line's scoring (which I doubt. I respect the defensive abilities of Pilote and the Cougars' 3rd line, but Victoria doesn't have a #2 defenseman with the mobility necessary to hang with Gretzky and Co.), Oakland will kill the Cougars in secondary scoring.
- I agree that Kariya vs. Yakushev is close, and have said so in the past. The matchup is not close, however. Stuart's size, speed and checking ability is a very good counter to Yakushev's size and speed (let's not get foolish and compare Yakushev's mobility to Kariya's, however - Yak was a very good skater for a big man and could move quickly in a straight line, but he had nothing resembling Kariya's acceleration or lateral mobility) while Bellows is toast against Kariya.
- Tom Phillips vs. Terry Crisp is the single ugliest matchup of this round. I remember Crisp - he was a mediocre fringe player for a few years, then played very well for two seasons as a checker in Philly before he got hurt and was finished. He's Sammy Pahlson all over again, and he's dogmeat against Tommy Phillips, who doesn't belong on a 4th line, anyway, nevermind skating against one of the worst 4th liners in the league.
- I actually like Tod Sloan a bit better than Jack Adams. They are similar players (both are gritty scorers) and while Adams showed up more often among the league scoring leaders, Sloan played in an era of stiffer competition and I think that gives him the offensive edge here. It's not a huge difference (not the six rounds that their draft positions would indicate - Adams is underrated), but I think Sloan is a bit better. That being said, Dillon - Adams - Phillips eats Damphousse - Sloan - Crisp for lunch.
- Vinny Damphousse learned to backcheck a bit later in his career, but as a Sharks fan I can tell you (as I said a number of times before this series), he wasn't that great at it. Also, Damphousse the top-10 scorer and Damphousse the backchecker are two different players. Like Steve Yzerman, you don't get both at the same time. Cecil Dillon the checker and Cecil Dillon the record-breaking playoff goal-scorer (and retro Conn-Smythe winner)
are the same player. In fact, if any retro Conn-Smythe is basically unquestionable, it is Dillon's. He simultaneously helped check Toronto's kid line to a standstill and broke the playoff goal-scoring record in the same season. Cecil Dillon vs. Damphousse is not a pretty picture for Victoria, especially given Oakland's offensive D and how badly the Seals outclass the Cougars on the line's other wing.
Clancy - Vasiliev:
This is a nightmare defensive pairing for Victoria's top line because the Cougars can't outskate those two, and they can't outskate any of Holik - Laprade - Finnigan, either. Oakland's speed on the new top pairing and 3rd line is a perfect counter to Blake - Taylor - Lafleur, while Victoria will struggle to contain the Gretzky line because of Johnson's footspeed issues. Clancy's only issue is size; he was very good in the defensive zone even in spite of his size and against a line that cannot push him around, his value goes up to that of a truly dominant 2-way defenseman.
Overall, I have a lot of respect for mullin's team, but Oakland is just a bad, bad matchup for Victoria.