ATD 2021 - Jim Robson Division First Round (4) Ottawa Senators v. (5) Montreal Maroons

[The Macho King]

OTTAWA SENATORS

Coach: Scotty Bowman
Captain: Jonathan Toews
Alternates: Red Kelly, Dickie Moore

Dickie Moore - Denis Savard - Mike Bossy
Sergei Kapustin - Sergei Fedorov - Igor Larionov
Pavol Demitra - Jonathan Toews - Marian Hossa
Wendel Clark - Derek Sanderson - Ron Ellis
Spares: Ivan Hlinka, Steve Thomas

Red Kelly - Bob Goldham
Alexei Kasatonov - Sergei Gonchar
Leo Reise Jr - John Carlson
Spare: Mattias Ohlund

Bill Durnan
Percy LeSueur

Power Play 1: Moore - Savard - Bossy - Kelly - Gonchar
Power Play 2: Kapustin - Fedorov - Larionov - Kasatonov - Gonchar/Carlson

Penalty Kill 1: Sanderson-Fedorov-Reise-Kasatonov
Penalty Kill 2: Toews-Hossa-Kelly-Goldham
Other PKers: Larionov, Ellis, Carlson


VERSUS


MONTREAL MAROONS

Coach: Fred Shero
Captain: Jack Stewart
Alternates: Aurele Joliat & Frank Fredrickson

Aurele Joliat - Howie Morenz - Brett Hull
Vladimir Krutov - Bill Cowley - Bill Mosienko
George Hay - Frank Fredrickson - Bernie Morris
Murray Murdoch - Dick Irvin - Rick Tocchet
Ab McDonald - Dan Bain

Lionel Hitchman - Jack Stewart
Lionel Conacher - Red Horner
Jim Neilson - Red Dutton
Sandis Ozolinsh

Terry Sawchuk
Gump Worsley

PP1: Krutov, Cowley, Morenz - Conacher, Hull
PP2: Joliat, Irvin, Hay - Neilson, Mosienko
PK1: Morenz-Joliat, Conacher, Stewart
PK2: Murdoch-Fredrickson, Hitchman, Dutton​

Click to read more...

 

[nabby12]

Good luck to my opponent! A nice battle of classic teams that once battled against one another in the 1925-26 NHL final. Somewhere Clint Benedict is smiling down on this series...

This is certainly a fun matchup. I will do some quick comparisons to get things started here.

Coaching: Scotty Bowman vs Fred Shero = Slight Advantage to Ottawa
Leadership: Toews - Kelly, Moore vs. Stewart - Joliat, Fredrickson = Advantage Ottawa

First Line: Moore-Savard-Bossy vs Joliat-Morenz-Bossy. = Big Advantage Montreal
One of my most important edges in this series is the contrast in first lines, as my trio works better offensively and defensively here.

Second Line: Kapustin-Fedorov-Larionov vs Krutov-Cowley-Mosienko = Slight Advantage Montreal
Similar offensively and defensively. Krutov's strong play gives the edge to Montreal here.

Third Line: Demitra-Toews-Hossa vs Hay-Fredrickson-Morris = Wash
Both are very strong third lines in this 24-team field.

Fourth Line: Clark-Sanderson-Ellis vs Murdoch-Irvin-Tocchet = Wash
See above.

First Defensive Pairing: Red Kelly-Bob Goldham vs Lionel Hitchman-Jack Stewart = Slight Advantage Ottawa
Kelly is elite, no question and is paired with a great shutdown man in Goldham. Hitchman and Stewart are no slouches either, but Red Kelly will likely always have the edge here.

Second Defensive Pairing: Kasatonov-Gonchar vs Conacher-Horner = Wash
My opponent's defencemen here are better offensively, while mine are the stronger players defensively. It helps that I have a stronger goalie, but we'll get into that shortly.

Third Defensive Pairing: Leo Reise Jr-John Carlson - Jim Neilson-Red Dutton = Advantage Montreal
Experience and knowing your role will play a big part in this series with this first line. Hard to find more experience out there then with Nielson and Dutton.

Special Teams: Wash
Not a lot to choose from on either side. Should be a Wash there with no significant advantage to either side.

Goaltending: Bill Durnan vs Terry Sawchuk. = Big Advantage Montreal
Finally, we have the important goaltending matchup. Durnan, while a stellar Hall of Fame netminder in his own right, is only a mid-range goalie in the competition. Sawchuk on the other hand is considered by most a Top 5 goaltender of all time and by some the GOAT himself.

We all know that Durnan was a decent playoff goalie, but let's face facts, if Sawchuk plays anywhere near the 1951-1955 prime Sawchuk that we all know is there, this series will not last long. Regardless of who you could get anywhere near his net to score.

Why Ottawa Will Win
Coaching/Leadership Advantage
First Defensive Pairing Edge

Why Montreal Will Win
Big First Line Advantage
Big Goalie Advantage - Sawchuk>Durnan
Third Defensive Pairing​

With the advantages I pointed out to both teams, it's going to be a terrific old-school-type hockey series. As we get to the end of this post, I see more Advantage Montreal than Ottawa in my findings, so I'm sure Ottawa might squeak out a win or two, but in the end, I think Montreal gets this done in six games.

 

[ResilientBeast]

You guys both set your D 1-4 & 2-3

Kelly vs Stewart - Slam dunk Kelly
Goldham vs Hitchman - I would have Hitchman ahead, but it's fairly close

Kasatonov vs Conacher - Fairly even IMO, maybe slight advantage Conacher
Gonacher vs Horner - I'd have Gonacher fairly comfortably ahead

On the top 4 in aggregate Ottawa should be ahead by a decent chunk IMO

I'm not sure what to make of Carlson, he might be the best player on the bottom pairings but I'm not sure

 

[tabness]

Joliat Morenz Hull is an amazing line but I do think the first line of Ottawa comes pretty close as I feel Dickie Moore’s game really compliments Savard and Bossy well, very intelligently built, like the whole team around the coaching and tactics.

One thing I’d have liked to see Montreal do was surround Krutov with at least one familiar face to ensure the best comes out of him, Krutov at his best should not be much behind Makarov, obviously his NHL play spoils things for his reputation, but hey, I doubt Makarov goes where he goes for his NHL play.

 

[overpass]

I don't know how much time I'll have to discuss here, but I'll get this started.

I think my opponent drafted well and there were several picks where I think he got really good value. Of course I like my team as well and I'll explain why.

The theme for my team ended up being 5-on-5 outscoring. I drafted players who had a track record of leading outscoring units and driving 5-on-5 dominance. I'm going to go full R-ON / R-OFF here. I realize there's more to valuing players than plus-minus stats, but I think they provide valuable information over hundreds of games.

R-ON refers to the even strength GF/GA Ratio while the player was ON the ice. R-OFF refers to the team's even strength GF/GA Ratio while the player was OFF the ice.

First line
RW Mike Bossy was one of the very strongest outscoring players in hockey history. Over his career, his team outscored opponents at a 1.79-1 ratio at even strength while he was on the ice. and only 1.17-1 while he was off the ice. Leave off his rookie season while he was still learning to play two-way hockey and his final season which was plagued by back injuries, and the Islanders outscored at a 1.90-1 rate with Bossy on the ice. Yes, Bossy played with a great centre in Bryan Trottier and some very good left wingers, but he played primarily with Brent Sutter in 1984-85 and still posted a 1.63 R-ON. The only other players to post a 1.9 or higher R-ON over 600+ games? Linemate Bryan Trottier, and also Bobby Orr, Bobby Clarke, Guy Lafleur, and Steve Shutt, Obviously it was easier to do in the 70s on a dynasty team but still, very impressive.

We only have a few post-peak seasons for LW Dickie Moore, but in that time he had a very strong plus-minus record. From 1959-60 through 1962-63, Montreal outscored opponents at a 1.68:1 GF/GA ratio with Moore on the ice, and only at a 1.29 GF/GA ratio when Moore was off the ice. The only other players to outscore at a 1.6-1 ratio over 4 seasons during the 1960s were members of Chicago's Scooter Line (Stan Mikita, Kenny Wharram, and Ab McDonald). Moore's complete skillset which include high skill level, hard work in the corners, and strong defensive play fit the profile of a player who drives outscoring.

Denis Savard was a solid plus player during his prime. His R-ON/R-OFF from 80-81 through 87-88 was 1.19/0.92, better than other 80s centres like Stastny (1.17/1.02), Hawerchuk (0.96/0.92), and pre-Bowman Yzerman (1.09/0.98). And he should have lots of room to work his magic between Bossy and Moore.

Second line
Sergei Fedorov was among the very best outscoring players of the 1990s. From 90-91 through 98-99, his R-ON was 1.59, right there with John Leclair and Eric Lindros for the best over that time period. And he's paired with Igor Larionov, who was an incredible contributor to great outscoring units when playing with other Russians. We all know about the Green Unit and their dominance in the 80s. Then when Larionov was reunited with Sergei Makarov in San Jose, they went on an epic run in the last part of the 1993-94 season, knocking the Wings out of the playoffs and pushing the Leafs to the brink. And finally when Larionov joined Sergei Fedorov to form the Russian Five in Detroit, they were absolutely dominant. For the 1995-96 and 1996-97 season combined, Fedorov's R-ON/OFF was 2.11/1.21, and Larionov's was 1.94/1.21. They were outscoring opponents at a 2-1 rate! That's what I'm trying to recreate with this second line and Russian Five concept. I realize they're not going to outscore ATD teams at a 2-1 rate, everything is relative, but they were possession monsters who were rarely scored on because the other team just didn't have the puck.

Third line
This is a huge strength for my team. Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa were part of the core of a dynasty in Chicago, playing together and outscoring opponents in dominant fashion. From 2009-10 through 2014-15 combined, Toews had an R-ON/R-OFF of 1.59/1.07. Hossa was 1.52/1.10. And this is post-peak Marian Hossa too. Pavol Demitra has Team Slovakia chemistry with Hossa, and was quite the outscorer himself, with a 1.37/1.05 R-ON/R-OFF from 98-99 through 07-08.

Fourth line
I would say what you see is what you get here. Just keep in mind that Wendel Clark spent much of his 20s playing with really crappy centres before Gilmour, and he's the type of winger who needs a good centre, so even a skilled checking centre like Sanderson is a big upgrade.

Defence
We don't have plus-minus numbers for Red Kelly's career but everyone knows that he was a winning player. Hugely valuable to Detroit's dynasty as a defender and a rusher, to the point some said he was their most valuable player, and then Toronto became a dynasty after he went there. Just a very smart, skilled player and the kind of player who can lift other great players.

I think Alexei Kasatonov gets slept on a bit. Watch him play with the Green Unit -- he was a first class defender and a high scorer who was completely integrated into their free-flowing game. He should allow Sergei Gonchar to really cut loose offensively and will help tie that Russian Five group together.

I kind of like having Reise and Goldham in addition to Kelly. That's a dynasty defence corps right there.

I like Durnan in goal. I'm impressed by the number of people who thought Durnan was the best goaltender in history at the time. Re: his short career, keep in mind that the Canadiens were trying to sign him for 3 years while he was playing senior hockey. It was a different time when senior amateur hockey was a legitimate alternative for some. Dick Irvin said it ate him up knowing the best goaltender in Montreal was playing for the Royals.

With Scotty Bowman behind the bench, I know he's going to get the best out of my team and the Senators will never be outcoached.

My one regret with this team is that I drafted almost no pre-WWII players. I had my eye on a few, including some that my opponent took (Hitchman and Hay) as well as Frank Nighbor in round 2, but they never ended up making it to me.

Good luck!

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

RW Mike Bossy was one of the very strongest outscoring players in hockey history. Over his career, his team outscored opponents at a 1.79-1 ratio at even strength while he was on the ice. and only 1.17-1 while he was off the ice. Leave off his rookie season while he was still learning to play two-way hockey and his final season which was plagued by back injuries, and the Islanders outscored at a 1.90-1 rate with Bossy on the ice. Yes, Bossy played with a great centre in Bryan Trottier and some very good left wingers, but he played primarily with Brent Sutter in 1984-85 and still posted a 1.63 R-ON.

In an interview on Spittin Chiclets a couple weeks ago Brent Sutter gave the background on this...

Tonelli - Sutter - Bossy were a line in the 1984 Canada Cup (this is when Trottier played for USA), so coming into training camp they were in top shape, and as this was back when players didn't do much off season training, they had a step up on almost everyone else fitness wise and on top of that also already had good chemistry going from the CC. Arbour being a great coach kept them together and they rolled. All 3 ended up with 100+ pts.

EDIT: The player interviews are by far the best part of that podcast.

 

[overpass]

One difference between the teams here is that Montreal is built along the lines of forwards score and defencemen defend. Ottawa has a more fluid structure with more offence from the back end. Part of that is that Ottawa is just a more modern team, but there were some great rushing defencemen in the early days of hockey, and Montreal doesn't have any of them.

Scotty Bowman will look to get Demitra-Toews-Hossa with Kelly and Goldham or the Russian Five out against Joliat - Morenz - Hull.

Don't forget there are two great goaltenders in this matchup. Maurice Richard and Toe Blake rated Durnan as the best goalie of all time. When Kevin Allen and Bob Duff wrote Without Fear in 2002, they rated Terry Sawchuk #2 all time and Bill Durnan # 6 all time. Roy, Sawchuk, Hall, Plante, Hasek, Durnan, Dryden were the top 7.

 

[nabby12]

One difference between the teams here is that Montreal is built along the lines of forwards score and defencemen defend. Ottawa has a more fluid structure with more offence from the back end. Part of that is that Ottawa is just a more modern team, but there were some great rushing defencemen in the early days of hockey, and Montreal doesn't have any of them.

Scotty Bowman will look to get Demitra-Toews-Hossa with Kelly and Goldham or the Russian Five out against Joliat - Morenz - Hull.

Don't forget there are two great goaltenders in this matchup. Maurice Richard and Toe Blake rated Durnan as the best goalie of all time. When Kevin Allen and Bob Duff wrote Without Fear in 2002, they rated Terry Sawchuk #2 all time and Bill Durnan # 6 all time. Roy, Sawchuk, Hall, Plante, Hasek, Durnan, Dryden were the top 7.

There are definitely two great goaltenders in this matchup, but there is also a very distinct advantage with Sawchuk.
Obviously, Richard and Blake rate Durnan the best because he was their goalie. Milt Schmidt always said that Brimsek was the best, and all the Leafs players said Broda, and so on. What else are they going to say?

Anyways, since I'm seeing some stories in this thread, one little quick story I'll tell to further Sawchuk's status as the GOAT is when Jacques Plante was struck in the face by an Andy Bathgate shot, he famously donned the mask for the first time in an NHL game since Clint Benedict did so thirty years prior.

The mask didn't catch on and was not widely accepted for years throughout the league. That is until Sawchuk finally donned the mask.

Plante jealously said himself that, "The mask didn't even catch on until Sawchuk started wearing one because he's the best and if he uses one, then it has to be a good idea."

I keep seeing people write about my team that "forwards score and defenders defend." I guess what that means is I have four lines that can score with just about anyone in this field. And I have three solid defence pairings where it will be difficult for the opposition to get through. And even if they do get through a couple times a night, I have Sawchuk, arguably the greatest goaltender of all time, back there to keep the pucks out.

I just don't see how Ottawa's lineup will be able to stop my first line with the real-life elite chemistry of Joliat and Morenz, paired with an amazing goal scorer in Brett Hull. It will be an uphill battle that's for sure!

 

[overpass]

There are definitely two great goaltenders in this matchup, but there is also a very distinct advantage with Sawchuk.
Obviously, Richard and Blake rate Durnan the best because he was their goalie. Milt Schmidt always said that Brimsek was the best, and all the Leafs players said Broda, and so on. What else are they going to say?

Anyways, since I'm seeing some stories in this thread, one little quick story I'll tell to further Sawchuk's status as the GOAT is when Jacques Plante was struck in the face by an Andy Bathgate shot, he famously donned the mask for the first time in an NHL game since Clint Benedict did so thirty years prior.

The mask didn't catch on and was not widely accepted for years throughout the league. That is until Sawchuk finally donned the mask.

Plante jealously said himself that, "The mask didn't even catch on until Sawchuk started wearing one because he's the best and if he uses one, then it has to be a good idea."

I keep seeing people write about my team that "forwards score and defenders defend." I guess what that means is I have four lines that can score with just about anyone in this field. And I have three solid defence pairings where it will be difficult for the opposition to get through. And even if they do get through a couple times a night, I have Sawchuk, arguably the greatest goaltender of all time, back there to keep the pucks out.

I just don't see how Ottawa's lineup will be able to stop my first line with the real-life elite chemistry of Joliat and Morenz, paired with an amazing goal scorer in Brett Hull. It will be an uphill battle that's for sure!

Joliat-Morenz-Hull is a really good line. I can't argue with that at all. Joliat-Morenz have all the skill, speed, and grit to drive the play and create scoring chances, which allows Hull to do what he does best and find the seams in the defence to get open and finish those chances. It's a big strength for Montreal and one that Ottawa will need to limit to win the series.

Fortunately, the Ottawa Senators have an elite third line to use as a matchup line and limit the impact of Montreal's first line. I'm very happy to have an extremely successful real life duo myself in Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa. Toews was the matchup centre for Team Canada and won best forward at the 2010 Olympics. He was also the matchup centre for the Chicago Blackhawks while they won 3 Cups in 6 years from 2009-10 through 2014-15, and Marian Hossa was skating on his right wing for those 3 Cups. He has an unmatched track record of success and winning from his generation, and has been held in extremely high regard around the league for his leadership and two-way play. Not just a checker, Toews scored at a high rate at even strength. Marian Hossa was one of the elite wingers of his generation and is one of the all-time great two-way wingers. He used great size, skating ability, skill, and defensive awareness to drive possession and win battles all over the ice. While Hossa was a talented offensive player, the one thing he lacked was high-end offensive awareness and creativity, especially when the defending team was back and set, and that's where Pavol Demitra comes in for this line. #38 was a responsible two-way player, a very strong even strength scorers for a third line, and he provides some east-west creativity and skill to make this line a legitimate threat to score. And he has the Team Slovakia connection with Hossa, where Demitra was a great international performer.

From 2009-10 through 2014-15 in the playoffs, Toews was +18 in 100 games and Hossa was +25 in 96 games. They were +11 and +14 on the road respectively. During these same years in the regular season, Toews was +72 at home and +76 on the road, and he scored 128 even strength points at home and 138 on the road. Most players perform better at home, but Toews played a lower scoring matchup style at home -- where the Hawks were almost unbeatable -- and then cut loose on the road when the opposition could dictate matchups and his team needed him to score more.

And Ottawa's line will be backed up by a great defence pairing, led by one of the all-time great defenders in Red Kelly. Kelly has the skating ability, the smarts, and the skill to defend the Joliat-Morenz rush threat as well as anyone, and to limit the time the puck spends in Ottawa's end. He's playing alongside Bob Goldham, a big shutdown defender who was an all-time great shot blocker and the unsung hero of Detroit's 1954 Cup-winning playoffs.

I'm also comfortable with Alexei Kasatonov and Sergei Gonchar against Montreal's top line. Kasatonov was just a great all-around defender, and Gonchar could have issues with physical play but has the hockey IQ and skill to defend a high-skill line like Montreal's. And the first-class defensive centres on Ottawa's second, third, and fourth line will provide great support to the defenders in the zone against Joliat-Morenz-Hull. Really the only players I think Scotty Bowman would want to hide against this line are Denis Savard and John Carlson.

Montreal does have the edge in goal with the great Terry Sawchuk. I can argue that Bill Durnan was not so far behind him, but it's certainly an advantage. It's kind of fun that Ottawa has his Detroit defence corps in Kelly, Goldham, and Reise.

 

[nabby12]

Great series! Good luck going forward, @overpass !

 

[overpass]

Great series! Good luck going forward, @overpass !

Thanks for the series! The Maroons were one of my favourite teams this year, very well done!