ATD 2016: Draft Summary

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
10,004
238
As per tradition (even the way I presented the questions have not change still I first created the Summary thread years ago!):

Biggest Steal(s) of the draft:
Biggest Reach(es) of the draft:
Smartest/best strategic pick in the draft:
Biggest blunder selection of the draft:
A Player finally getting respect in the draft:
A player always taken too high, finally getting picked where he should in the draft:
A player you've discovered in this draft:
Most underrated player taken:
Most overrated player taken:
Favorite scoring line of the draft:
Favorite checking line of the draft:
Best assembled line of the draft:
Worst assembled line of the draft:
Favorite pairing of defensemen:
Most puzzling pairing of defensemen:
Team in the other conference it'd be interesting to meet in the finals:
Team in the other conference you wouldn't want to meet in the finals:
A funny/dramatic story (related to the ATD) you've learned about since the start of the draft:

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Best selection: You cannot vote for players you own
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25th round:

'Worst' Selection
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24th round:
25th round:


Also, feel free to add any other comments or reflections about your experience/team this year.
 

Sturminator

Love is a duel
Feb 27, 2002
9,894
1,070
West Egg, New York
Allright, I guess I'll get the ball rolling. I don't care much about the last two spares, anyway.

Biggest Steal(s) of the draft: Ivan Hlinka - his scoring numbers compared to Martinec are pretty stunning. I think he's probably on the Sundin/Frederickson level among scoringline centers at this point.

Biggest Reach(es) of the draft: Clark Gillies / Vladimir Konstantinov - paper knew it when he took him, but I still have to call it out. I mean, Gillies was drafted between Petrov and Savard. That's the wrong spot in the draft for him. Konstantinov is similarly overvalued where he was taken.

Smartest/best strategic pick in the draft: Toe Blake - 87and71 snagged Blake right as the coaching run was beginning. By the time he came back up, another six coaches had gone.

Biggest blunder selection of the draft: Viktor Tikhonov - reuniting him with Larionov is a very bad idea. Coaching really matters, people.

A Player finally getting respect in the draft: Bobby Bauer - not so much based on draft position (maybe that will come up in the future), but hopefully people realize now that he was considerably better than his VsX numbers indicate.

A player always taken too high, finally getting picked where he should in the draft:
Cam Neely - obvious reasons.

A player you've discovered in this draft: Konstantin Loktev

Most underrated player taken: Dany Heatley - I mean underrated by consensus, not by any given GM. I get that a lot of people "just don't like" Heatley, but he is consistently by far the best scoringline LW available when he is picked, and a great value for whoever takes him.

Most overrated player taken: Alexei Kasatonov - again going against the apparent consensus, but I don't see what makes Kasatonov worthy of a #106 pick.

Favorite scoring line of the draft: Firsov - Delvecchio - Jagr - I'd pay good money to see those guys play together.

Favorite checking line of the draft: Metz - Watson - Provost - I like the fit and the value where these guys were taken.

Best assembled line of the draft: Foyston - Barry - Bathgate - mercy, that is a nasty 2nd line.

Worst assembled line of the draft: Sedin - Lemieux - Starshinov - mainly because Starshinov is no kind of right wing.

Favorite pairing of defensemen: Clancy - Johnson - think they'd fit each other like a glove

Most puzzling pairing of defensemen: Fetisov - Blake - no problem with the talent level, but somebody has to defend. I think Blake is best served by a quite defensive-minded partner.

Team in the other conference it'd be interesting to meet in the finals: n/a

Team in the other conference you wouldn't want to meet in the finals: n/a

A funny/dramatic story (related to the ATD) you've learned about since the start of the draft: I learned that Toe Blake as coach once took a swing at a referee, and opened a fan's head with a stick during a brawl in LA.

---

Best selection: You cannot vote for players you own
1st round: n/a
2nd round: Frank Boucher - what separates him from Trottier and Sakic?
3rd round: Glenn Hall - the 3rd round goalies were all good value; I think Hall was the best.
4th round: Ted Kennedy - I realize he wasn't a huge scorer, but Teeder was a hell of a hockey player. #82 feels too low for him.
5th round: Frank Brimsek - another early goalie at nice value. 50+ picks between Dryden and Brimsek is too many, and Dryden wasn't a bad pick.
6th round: Dave Keon - sort of like Ted Kennedy, I think he's getting underrated because of his regular season scoring, and people are forgetting how good he was at everything else.
7th round: Roy Conacher - not an amazing value (there were none in this round), but I think Conacher slipped a bit further than he should.
8th round: Tony Esposito - he slipped so far this year, I wonder if some GMs even realized he was still on the board when he was taken.
9th round: Darryl Sittler - consistently goes later than Savard and Hawerchuk, who weren't any better.
10th round: Dany Heatley - just doesn't get enough love for having been a very good player.
11th round: Bernie Morris - another offensive winger who went too late.
12nd round: Daniel Sedin - and another...
13th round: Jiri Holik - maybe this is the year we finally appreciate this guy for the great player that he was?
14th round: Phil Watson - I feel like he goes late relative to his value as a two-way player, and general pain in the ass.
15th round: Ivan Hlinka - probably the last of the Golden Age Europeans who we had really undervalued.
16th round: Vitali Davydov - I know he's toiling on a bottom pairing, but I think Davydov is good enough to be a nice #4, and is better than a number of defensemen picked before him.
17th round: Rusty Crawford - very nice gritty scoring wing for this point in the draft. Also played for some of the most amazingly named teams in the history of sport, including the Prince Albert Mentos and the Saskatoon Hoo-Hoos.
18th round: Nicklas Backstrom - best scoring center taken since Hlinka. Sets up the amazing double-Backstrom attack.
19th round: Boris Mayorov - still underrated.
20th round: Tommy Dunderdale - I wish we knew more about him, but even just going by the numbers, this seems awfully late for Dunderdale.
21st round: Pat Verbeek - was an insufferable *****. Perfect 4th liner.
22nd round: Viktor Kuzkin - not that far behind Davydov - a good #5, I think. Shame he's just a spare this year.
23th round: Vladimir Dzurilla - sad Vlad makes me smile.
24th round: Brent Burns - some were surprised by the pick, but I think Burns is quite useful. One of the very few modern players who is legitimately good both as a forward and as a defenseman.
25th round: meh

'Worst' Selection
1st round: n/a
2nd round: Steve Yzerman - often goes too early. Should not go before Trottier, Sakic, Boucher or Lalonde, imo.
3rd round: Duncan Keith - I don't mean to sound reactionary. I don't have that much problem with Keith at this spot, but it still feels a bit too high. Has he really passed Jack Stewart?
4th round: Georges Vezina - great goalie, but I don't understand why he should be chosen before Tretiak and especially Brimsek.
5th round: Brendan Shanahan - meh. Did a lot of valuable things, but just not talented enough for this spot in the draft. Not meaningfully better than LeClair or even Krutov.
6th round: Yvan Cournoyer - sorry to pick on you LL, but he needs to drop some more. Simply not productive enough for this spot.
7th round: Mike Gartner - not as good as a number of scoring line RWs taken later.
8th round: Clark Gillies - if Gillies hadn't played for a dynasty team, he would be a 4th liner.
9th round: n/a - nothing stands out as especially egregious to me in this round. No, not even Drew Doughty.
10th round: Bill Mosienko - an unspectacular scorer who brings nothing else to the table. Probably not as good as Mogilny, who was taken three rounds later by the same team.
11th round: Derian Hatcher - people who claim there is bias against modern players in the ATD need to take a long look at Hatcher's placement in the draft relative to some older defensemen like Colville, Duncan, Wentworth, etc.
12nd round: Tommy Ivan - I'm not sure there's ever a good reason to draft Ivan before Blake.
13th round: Brian Rafalski - doesn't belong on an ATD 2nd pairing, yet is consistently drafted like a 2nd pairing defenseman.
14th round: Ulf Samuelsson - also not a 2nd pairing defenseman at this level, imo.
15th round: Danny Gare - persistently overrated.
16th round: Dustin Byfuglien - really?
17th round: Wendel Clark - grinder who couldn't stay healthy. Yay.
18th round: the coaches - waiting until super-late to draft a coach almost never works out. These guys are an example of why that is.
19th round: Mel Bridgman - a forgettable player from a memorable team. Center is so deep...this guy should probably be in the MLD.
20th round: Kris Draper - why take Draper when guys like Bill Thoms, Troy Murray and Brent Sutter are still on the board?
21st round: Viktor Tikhonov - certainly worth the pick at this point if you have the right team for him, but Atlantic City is not the right team.
22nd round: Larry Robinson/Ken Hitchcock - there are very few scenarios in which assistant coaches matter. I don't think either Miami or Guelph will get anything out of these picks.
23th round: Andrew Ladd - why?
24th round: meh
25th round: meh
 
Last edited:

monster_bertuzzi

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May 26, 2003
32,733
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Vancouver
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Biggest Steal(s) of the draft: Terry Sawchuk
Biggest Reach(es) of the draft: I do think Keith is a pretty big reach at 77, or Larry Murphy/Rod Gilbert/Mike Gartner
Smartest/best strategic pick in the draft:
Biggest blunder selection of the draft:
A Player finally getting respect in the draft: Sweeney Schriner
A player always taken too high, finally getting picked where he should in the draft: Yeah, Neely
A player you've discovered in this draft: Bullet Joe Simpson
Most underrated player taken: Eric Lindros
Most overrated player taken: Alexei Kasatonov
Favorite scoring line of the draft: Schriner - Crosby - Howe
Favorite checking line of the draft: Gainey - Carbonneau - Toppazzini
Best assembled line of the draft: Maybe Blake - Abel - Cook, excellent combo of hockey elements.
Worst assembled line of the draft: Sedin - Lemieux - Starsh
Favorite pairing of defensemen: Johnson - Orr, Lapointe - Horton
Most puzzling pairing of defensemen: Id agree that the Rockies Top four is puzzling, though not lacking talent.
Team in the other conference it'd be interesting to meet in the finals: Couchiching
Team in the other conference you wouldn't want to meet in the finals: Montreal
A funny/dramatic story (related to the ATD) you've learned about since the start of the draft:

---

Best selection: You cannot vote for players you own
1st round:
2nd round:
3rd round:
4th round:
5th round:
6th round:
7th round:
8th round:
9th round:
10th round:
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25th round:

'Worst' Selection
1st round:
2nd round:
3rd round:
4th round:
5th round:
6th round:
7th round:
8th round:
9th round:
10th round:
11th round:
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21st round:
22nd round:
23th round:
24th round:
25th round:


Also, feel free to add any other comments or reflections about your experience/team this year.[/QUOTE]
 

Sturminator

Love is a duel
Feb 27, 2002
9,894
1,070
West Egg, New York
I'm always curious are these guys drafted for career value?

Peak, prime or what exactly is the criteria?

Every GM uses his own criteria for evaluating players. There is general agreement that performance during a player's "extended peak" (generally 7-10 years, depending on era) is the best measure of overall value, but there is not a consensus, and serious differences of opinion remain regarding the valuation of players whose careers don't fit neatly into this schema, including current players, wartime players, etc.

tl;dr - there are some widely-used conventions, but no set rules.
 

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
10,004
238
Sturm, where do you get the idea that Hlinka is on a Frederickson/Sundin level? I'd need to look at the numbers vs. Martinec again but this seems like a pretty large leap.
 

Iceman

Registered User
Jun 9, 2014
10,640
2,024
Not to jump on anyone, because if we do, nobody will ever do the summaries.

But.. Sturm, regarding Samuelsson - Did you mean that there were better dmen available, even playstyle wise at that point or that he is not a #4? If you mean not a #4 then yeah, probably not, but he is playing on the third pairing here at least if we are to trust the roster post by the GM. ;-)

Otherwise I tend to agree for the most part.

Regarding Heatley, I guess he is a bit similar to Naslund - not comparing them specifically but in terms of how their career played out (Heatley peaked earlier ofc) and should perhaps be looked at similarly. I wouldn't have either guy on a first line in the ATD and shouldn't be THE best player on the second line either. They contribute very good offense though.
 

ResilientBeast

Proud Member of the TTSAOA
Jul 1, 2012
13,903
3,558
Edmonton
I'm still toying with the idea of moving Wentworth up and Blake down. But I'd be pretty worried about Wentworth being on the top pairing getting ripped apart.

I appreciate the love for my top line MB
 

Hardyvan123

tweet@HardyintheWack
Jul 4, 2010
17,552
24
Vancouver
Every GM uses his own criteria for evaluating players. There is general agreement that performance during a player's "extended peak" (generally 7-10 years, depending on era) is the best measure of overall value, but there is not a consensus, and serious differences of opinion remain regarding the valuation of players whose careers don't fit neatly into this schema, including current players, wartime players, etc.

tl;dr - there are some widely-used conventions, but no set rules.

Okay thanks.

The part in bold is what I was thinking as well, it's just hard to know with some of the picks (and comments)really.
 

Iceman

Registered User
Jun 9, 2014
10,640
2,024
I'm still toying with the idea of moving Wentworth up and Blake down. But I'd be pretty worried about Wentworth being on the top pairing getting ripped apart.

I appreciate the love for my top line MB

Depends on the matchup I'd say. Are you up against a stacked first line (i.e. Hawkey's first line if he had kept Apps on the top line) then I would keep Blake there.
 

Sturminator

Love is a duel
Feb 27, 2002
9,894
1,070
West Egg, New York
Sturm, where do you get the idea that Hlinka is on a Frederickson/Sundin level? I'd need to look at the numbers vs. Martinec again but this seems like a pretty large leap.

He was a better scorer than Martinec in the Czech league, and he played for a worse team. Do you think Martinec was a weaker offensive player than Sundin/Frederickson? I realize they're centers and Martinec is a wing, but do you really think he was below that level? I don't. Martinec was clearly the best Czech forward on international ice, but Hlinka was also very good; his record with the national team is quite similar to Novy's.

It appears that the Golden Stick voting was strongly affected by team performance, much like Hart voting in the NHL. Here are the Golden Stick winners and their team's placements in the standings from the award's inception to the end of Novy's prime.

Season|Winner|Team|League Finish
1968-69|Suchy|Jihlava|1st
1969-70|Suchy|Jihlava|1st
1970-71|Pospisil|Kladno|3rd
1971-72|Pospisil|Kladno|3rd
1972-73|Martinec|Pardubice|1st
1973-74|Holecek|Sparta|2nd
1974-75|Martinec|Pardubice|2nd
1975-76|Martinec|Pardubice|2nd
1976-77|Novy|Kladno|1st
1977-78|Hlinka|Litvinov|2nd
1978-79|Martinec|Jihlava|2nd
1979-80|P. Stastny|Bratislava|3rd
1980-81|Novy|Kladno|3rd
1981-82|Novy|Kladno|2nd

Hlinka's Litvinov teams finished in the top-3 of the league table exactly once during his career: the year he won the Golden Stick. I seriously doubt this is a coincidence. He seems to have been the Andy Bathgate of the Czech league.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
6,982
Brooklyn
I don't know if I have a problem with Fetisov-Blake. Blake can be the physical crease clearer Kasatonov was.

I realize Blake wasn't the best defensively at even strength, but I think that was more due to dumb mistakes, rather than trying to rush the puck up ice.

____

As for what makes Sakic and Trottier better than Frank Boucher, I would start with goal scoring and Hart voting.
 

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
10,004
238
He was a better scorer than Martinec in the Czech league, and he played for a worse team. Do you think Martinec was a weaker offensive player than Sundin/Frederickson? I realize they're centers and Martinec is a wing, but do you really think he was below that level? I don't. Martinec was clearly the best Czech forward on international ice, but Hlinka was also very good; his record with the national team is quite similar to Novy's.

It appears that the Golden Stick voting was strongly affected by team performance, much like Hart voting in the NHL. Here are the Golden Stick winners and their team's placements in the standings from the award's inception to the end of Novy's prime.

Season|Winner|Team|League Finish
1968-69|Suchy|Jihlava|1st
1969-70|Suchy|Jihlava|1st
1970-71|Pospisil|Kladno|3rd
1971-72|Pospisil|Kladno|3rd
1972-73|Martinec|Pardubice|1st
1973-74|Holecek|Sparta|2nd
1974-75|Martinec|Pardubice|2nd
1975-76|Martinec|Pardubice|2nd
1976-77|Novy|Kladno|1st
1977-78|Hlinka|Litvinov|2nd
1978-79|Martinec|Jihlava|2nd
1979-80|P. Stastny|Bratislava|3rd
1980-81|Novy|Kladno|3rd
1981-82|Novy|Kladno|2nd

Hlinka's Litvinov teams finished in the top-3 of the league table exactly once during his career: the year he won the Golden Stick. I seriously doubt this is a coincidence. He seems to have been the Andy Bathgate of the Czech league.

How does the Golden Stick voting correlate to these guys' performance in international tournaments?
 

Sturminator

Love is a duel
Feb 27, 2002
9,894
1,070
West Egg, New York
As for what makes Sakic and Trottier better than Frank Boucher, I would start with goal scoring and Hart voting.

Goal scoring is a weak argument considering Boucher was the greatest playmaker of an era when there were about .66 assists awarded for every goal. If anything, his value as an offensive producer is underrated by the numbers, not overrated.

Hart voting is a good point, but what about the fact that Boucher was an excellent defensive center for his entire career, while Trottier only developed into one in the middle of his career (when his scoring dropped), and Sakic was never on that level defensively?

There is not much to separate these three other than ATD canon.
 

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
52,271
6,982
Brooklyn
Goal scoring is a weak argument considering Boucher was the greatest playmaker of an era when there were about .66 assists awarded for every goal. If anything, his value as an offensive producer is underrated by the numbers, not overrated.

Hart voting is a good point, but what about the fact that Boucher was an excellent defensive center for his entire career, while Trottier only developed into one in the middle of his career (when his scoring dropped), and Sakic was never on that level defensively?

There is not much to separate these three other than ATD canon.

Frankly, I think Sakic is on another level from the other two.
 

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
10,004
238
Goal scoring is a weak argument considering Boucher was the greatest playmaker of an era when there were about .66 assists awarded for every goal. If anything, his value as an offensive producer is underrated by the numbers, not overrated.

Hart voting is a good point, but what about the fact that Boucher was an excellent defensive center for his entire career, while Trottier only developed into one in the middle of his career (when his scoring dropped), and Sakic was never on that level defensively?

There is not much to separate these three other than ATD canon.

Well then couldn't you say relative to that era that modern goal scorers are underrated? This applies more to Sakic than Trottier.

Just looking at Boucher's Hart record, it is a lot worse than Trottier's and Sakic's.
 

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
10,004
238
He's the weakest of the three defensively by a healthy margin, and the offensive gap isn't substantial. I'm not sure what makes you think Sakic was so much better. Honestly, I might pick him third out of that group.

Unless he's acting as the defensive conscience for his line, I find that this matters little. Even if he is the defensive conscience of his line, how often is he going to actually be in the defensive zone? He's not going to be used power on power (and quite frankly, Boucher probably won't ever be used that way either), so I find the defensive value a lot less useful than it may appear on the surface.
 

Sturminator

Love is a duel
Feb 27, 2002
9,894
1,070
West Egg, New York
Well then couldn't you say relative to that era that modern goal scorers are underrated?

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, jarek; your statement and mine are not mutually exclusive. Boucher's scoring is relatively understated by the scoring standards of his era, while the relative production of goal-scorers would be somewhat overstated, yes.

The argument you're making might be relevant in comparing, say, Howie Morenz to Joe Sakic, but it is not relevant comparing Sakic to Boucher, who clearly got the short end of the stick at the scorer's table.
 

Sturminator

Love is a duel
Feb 27, 2002
9,894
1,070
West Egg, New York
Unless he's acting as the defensive conscience for his line, I find that this matters little. Even if he is the defensive conscience of his line, how often is he going to actually be in the defensive zone? He's not going to be used power on power (and quite frankly, Boucher probably won't ever be used that way either), so I find the defensive value a lot less useful than it may appear on the surface.

Uh...jarek, Frank Boucher was the defensive conscience of the Bread Line. He was an outstanding defensive center. Have you never read his now three year old profile? He is definitely good enough to use power-on-power in the ATD.
 

jarek

Registered User
Aug 15, 2009
10,004
238
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here, jarek; your statement and mine are not mutually exclusive. Boucher's scoring is relatively understated by the scoring standards of his era, while the relative production of goal-scorers would be somewhat overstated, yes.

The argument you're making might be relevant in comparing, say, Howie Morenz to Joe Sakic, but it is not relevant comparing Sakic to Boucher, who clearly got the short end of the stick at the scorer's table.

All I'm trying to say is, Sakic's abilities as a goal scorer would underrate his overall point production in an era where much more assists are handed out per goal. Maybe not to the extent that it would affect Boucher's point totals, but it's still a thing.

Given that, you can always isolate Boucher's playmaking vs his peers, where he does indeed excel substantially. Looking at Boucher at his very best, 1927-1935, he scored 0.54 assists per game, with Busher Jackson and Howie Morenz being his next best competition at 0.4 and 0.39, respectively (min. 200 games played).

Uh...jarek, Frank Boucher was the defensive conscience of the Bread Line. He was an outstanding defensive center. Have you never read his now three year old profile? He is definitely good enough to use power-on-power in the ATD.

I have never seen him used that way in the ATD. Maybe there's a reason for that.
 

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