ATD 2014 Jim Coleman Conference Final - Guelph Platers vs Chicago Shamrocks

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Guelph Platers
1986 Memorial Cup Champions

Home Rink: Guelph Memorial Gardens (1948)
GM: BraveCanadian

Coaches: Al Arbour
Captain: Syl Apps
Alternates: Ron Francis, Zdeno Chara

Michel Goulet - Syl Apps - Mark Recchi
Kevin Stevens - Ron Francis - Zigmund Palffy
Dave Balon - Joel Otto - Ed Westfall
Bob Davidson - Ryan Getzlaf - Rick Vaive

Zdeno Chara - Bobby Orr
Duncan Keith - Ted Green
Rod Seiling - Pat Egan

Johnny Bower
Roberto Luongo


Reserves

D Al Arbour - C Jason Spezza - RW Andy Hebenton - RW/LW Al MacAdam


Powerplay:
PP1: Michel Goulet - Syl Apps - Mark Recchi - Pat Egan - Bobby Orr

PP2: Kevin Stevens - Ron Francis - Zigmund Palffy - Duncan Keith - Zdeno Chara / Bobby Orr


Penalty Kill:
PK1: Joel Otto - Ed Westfall - Zdeno Chara - Bobby Orr

PK2: Ron Francis - Bob Davidson - Duncan Keith - Rod Seiling

VS

Chicago Shamrocks

Head Coach: Cecil Hart
Captain: Mario Lemieux
Alternate Captains: Ebbie Goodfellow, Brian Sutter

Busher Jackson - Mario Lemieux - Ace Bailey
Henrik Zetterberg - Milan Novy - Charlie Conacher
Brian Sutter - Walt Tkaczuk - Bob Nevin
Brendan Morrow - Bill Thoms - Tony Amonte
Craig Conroy, Alf Skinner

Vladimir Lutchenko - Bill Gadsby
Ebbie Goodfellow - Bob Goldham
Brian Campbell - Jiri Bubla
Bob Dailey, Jerry Korab

Charlie Gardiner
Percy LeSueur

PP1
Busher Jackson - Mario Lemieux - Charlie Conacher
Ebbie Goodfellow - Bill Gadsby

PP2
Milan Novy - Lemieux/Zetterberg - Tony Amonte
Jiri Bubla - Vladimir Lutchenko

PK1
Walt Tkaczuk - Bob Nevin
Ebbie Goodfellow - Bob Goldham

PK2
Henrik Zetterberg - Ace Bailey
Vladimir Lutchenko - Bill Gadsby

Extra PK F: Bill Thoms​

Click to read more...

 

[BraveCanadian]

Geesh.. stop one offensive oriented team and our reward is to play Mario Lemieux with a couple dynamite wingers!

Can someone page Adam Graves?

Gonna be a good one!

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Orr vs. Lemieux...a match for the ages! Here's to a good series BC. With 3 game 7's tonight I doubt I will have time to post anything, so look for my opening thoughts tomorrow.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Lineup Changes for Chicago
Same as last round, and for the same reason. Guelph has the best D pairing in the draft this year, a balanced two-line attack is clearly the way to go. Also leaving Brian Campbell in for quick transition/puck-moving.


Scoring Lines 7yr VS.X

First Lines
Mario Lemieux: 120.4
Syl Apps: 93.0
Busher Jackson: 90.0
Mark Recchi: 88.6
Michel Goulet: 79.3
Ace Bailey: 68.1

Avg Chicago: 92.8
Avg Guelph: 87.0

Notes:
- Chicago has the best defensive player on either line in Ace Bailey

- Chicago has the most physical on either line in Busher Jackson


Second Lines
Charlie Conacher: 97.1
Ron Francis: 87.6 (82.7)
Ziggy Palffy: 80.6
Milan Novy: ? 80 ?
Henrik Zetterberg: 71.3
Kevin Stevens: 67.8

Avg Chicago: 82.8
Avg Guelph: 78.7 (77.0)

Notes:
- You will see 2 numbers next to Ron Francis' VS.X score. The first is his score if he gets tallied the same as everyone else. The second tries to account for the clear boost he received from playing with Jaromir Jagr (and to a lesser extent Lemieux) for 4 seasons from 1995-1998. This technique came about in the Top Centers project and replaces the score Francis earned on those 4 years with his best 4 scores from his "non-Jagr" years.

- Francis and Zetterberg are close defensively, but since Francis is playing Center, I will say Guelph has the best defensive player on either line

- Chicago has the most physical player on either line in Charlie Conacher, although Kevin Stevens was very physical himself

- Kevin Stevens' had many (all?) of his best years playing alongside Mario Lemieux. His score should probably be discounted some because he is not in that type of situation here. Don't think it's worth it to figure out how much, it's up to each individual voter.

- I have made a conservative guess for Milan Novy's score. 80 puts him a little under Jeremy Roenick (81.5), which I think is more than fair considering how great his CSSR domestic league Top-10 point finishes are: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Chicago General Strategy

When you're playing against Bobby Orr your gameplan needs to revolve around him. It is well known that the Flyers and Rangers used a strategy of dumping the puck into Orr's corner and aggressively checking him with 2 players. This both wore Orr down and forced him to move the puck to lesser skilled teammates who were not skilled enough to lead the rush/transition. While Chicago will be playing physical against Orr with guys like Charlie Conacher, Busher Jackson, Brian Sutter, Walt Tkaczuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Brendan Morrow, their strategy will be more along the lines of the 1971 Montreal Canadiens, which beat Orr with a skilled forwards on a quick counter-attack. Here is a description of the Habs strategy by a poster on the History of Hockey board:

----

For Orr, the plan the 73 Rangers and 74 Flyers used was dumping into his corner and physically wearing him down if he kept the puck or passed and got it back. If he dished and didn't get it back, then Boston was apparently unprepared to move the puck without Orr and this was much easier to contain (they were more unprepared in 1973 than 1974.) The 73 Bruins had trouble moving the puck out of its own zone whether he kept it or dished it. Both opponents forechecked the Bruins with two forwards. Orr could breeze by any one guy, but with two in his way he had to slow down and he was easier to check. Bobby Clarke was the most persistent forechecker. Clarke also dominated the faceoff circle to minimize Boston's possessions and pestered Orr and Esposito.

The Canadiens just seemed content to play more passively and counter attack. They were a pretty poor defensive team by Habs standards in 1971 (5th of the Original 6) and persistently counter attacked to catch Orr out of position, because they were probably the only team with enough skilled offensive players to attempt this, and this was not the year for them to try a defensive game. Henri Richard helped slow down Phil Esposito, which indirectly reduced Orr's space in the offensive zone, and also scored on a famous breakaway by stealing the puck from #4. (Espo got injured in the 1973 series too, but the Bruins had trouble exiting their zone when he did play anyways.) Jean Beliveau often used his size in front of the net which Boston defenders struggled with. I believe Ken Dryden gets too much credit for this series. He was much better later in the playoffs, but for all the big saves, he let in plenty of seemingly soft goals against Boston and is probably the reason Montreal lost the first two playoff games an O6 team lost to an E6 team the following round vs the Stars as much as he's the reason they survived 7 games against Chicago in the Finals.

Frank Mahovlich also had the idea of skating fast and putting his knee in front of Orr's knee. That wasn't a playoff series, but it worked okay too...

----

Chicago possesses exactly the type of highly skilled forwards mentioned above. Chicago is also riddled with speed up front, so Orr will not be able to catch up to the play when he joins the offense. Conacher, Lemieux, Jackson, Amonte, Thoms, and Bailey are all extremely fast skaters.

Chicago also has a highly skilled puckmover on each pairing to start the counter attack in Bill Gadsby, Ebbie Goodfellow, and Brian Campbell

What else is convenient: It is well known that speed to the outside is Zdeno Chara's biggest weakness.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Lineup Changes for Chicago
Same as last round, and for the same reason. Guelph has the best D pairing in the draft this year, a balanced two-line attack is clearly the way to go. Also leaving Brian Campbell in for quick transition/puck-moving.


Scoring Lines 7yr VS.X

First Lines
Mario Lemieux: 120.4
Syl Apps: 93.0
Busher Jackson: 90.0
Mark Recchi: 88.6
Michel Goulet: 79.3
Ace Bailey: 68.1

Avg Chicago: 92.8
Avg Guelph: 87.0

Oh its on!

Similar to last series we give up a bit on the first line but keep it close. Also similar to last series, if we keep the offense close, our defensive strength will tip the series in our favour.

If you go strictly by VsX your first line is 6.6% better offensively which is probably less than you'd assume when you have Mario Lemieux and I don't.

Then voters will have to factor in the minutes that the players on my first line will be playing with:

Bobby Orr - 7 yr VsX: 109.3 and consider how that might affect how extra productive those minutes will be.

Notes:
- Chicago has the best defensive player on either line in Ace Bailey

Bailey is also the worst offensive player by a substantial margin and has to cover up a bit for the weakest defensive player on the first lines, Lemieux. (imo)

- Chicago has the most physical on either line in Busher Jackson

That may be true but Goulet and Recchi give us plenty of sandpaper for a first line as well so I'm not sure it is a factor.

Second Lines
Charlie Conacher: 97.1
Ron Francis: 87.6 (82.7)
Ziggy Palffy: 80.6
Milan Novy: ? 80 ?
Henrik Zetterberg: 71.3
Kevin Stevens: 67.8

Avg Chicago: 82.8
Avg Guelph: 78.7 (77.0)

Again here we're talking about a small offensive gap between these two lines depending on how harshly people want to judge Francis, what score they reasonably assign Novy, and how much they favour longevity on Stevens because he is an all short peak player. Something like 4-7%.

As far as I am concerned we're keeping it close enough considering this is your team strength.

Notes:
- You will see 2 numbers next to Ron Francis' VS.X score. The first is his score if he gets tallied the same as everyone else. The second tries to account for the clear boost he received from playing with Jaromir Jagr (and to a lesser extent Lemieux) for 4 seasons from 1995-1998. This technique came about in the Top Centers project and replaces the score Francis earned on those 4 years with his best 4 scores from his "non-Jagr" years.

Fair enough for those people that want to do so.. although I really have to question why it happens for Francis and doesn't happen for other players.

- Francis and Zetterberg are close defensively, but since Francis is playing Center, I will say Guelph has the best defensive player on either line

I agree that Francis is the better defensive player, especially considering he is playing center here and adds extra value through his great faceoff ability there as well.

- Chicago has the most physical player on either line in Charlie Conacher, although Kevin Stevens was very physical himself

Stevens wasn't a fighter but he was a bull out there until his terrible injury.

- Kevin Stevens' had many (all?) of his best years playing alongside Mario Lemieux. His score should probably be discounted some because he is not in that type of situation here. Don't think it's worth it to figure out how much, it's up to each individual voter.

It isn't really worth it since he is already the worst player here but as for him having many of his best years playing alongside Lemieux.. he didn't have many best years due to his injury but the peak seasons he does have were 1/2 Lemieux 1/2 without. The two highest were obviously with Lemieux but Stevens was legit.

- I have made a conservative guess for Milan Novy's score. 80 puts him a little under Jeremy Roenick (81.5), which I think is more than fair considering how great his CSSR domestic league Top-10 point finishes are: 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th

I'll take your word for it because I have no idea how you would estimate them!

 

[BraveCanadian]

Chicago General Strategy

Chicago possesses exactly the type of highly skilled forwards mentioned above. Chicago is also riddled with speed up front, so Orr will not be able to catch up to the play when he joins the offense. Conacher, Lemieux, Jackson, Amonte, Thoms, and Bailey are all extremely fast skaters.

To be honest I think you're missing a key ingredient for that strategy.

The Henri Richard type player or Pavel Datsyuk type player in the center.

Also Lemieux is obviously a great transitional player due to his anticipation but he was a lazy back checker most of the time and not an "extremely fast skater". Like Lindros he was a very good skater for his size but I wouldn't go too far.

Thoms and Amonte are fourth liners, play them against us as much as possible please.

Not to mention I don't know why people think these mid-to-late 70s strategies of stopping Bobby Orr on a depleted Bruins team that was over-reliant on him will work on a ATD team featuring Bobby Orr. Obviously you have to plan for him but you can't just plan for him on our team.

What else is convenient: It is well known that speed to the outside is Zdeno Chara's biggest weakness.

That is the nice thing about being paired with Bobby Orr. Big Z can play conservatively and keep positioning, use his wingspan and size to physically dominate the boards and slot.

Bobby Orr is the one with the incredible skating who can be aggressive attacking the puck carrier.

They are perfect complements.

 

[BraveCanadian]

While we're talking strategy, we're going to continue to rely on two of our strategic advantages here: Al Arbour and home ice.

Obviously we're going to try and get the Otto line out against Lemieux line at times and free up our Apps line at times against weaker lines on Chicago.

Otto has the wingspan and size to fight Lemieux for pucks and is physically punishing which Lemieux doesn't like at all.

Having Westfall on the right side is a top notch checker for defending Jackson.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Chicago has an impressive Top 6 led by Mario Lemieux but their team strength only gives them a
4-7% advantage offensively over Guelph's very effective but less flashy (outside Apps) Top 6.

That is before considering the impact Bobby Orr will have.


So lets look at the defense:

Orr vs Gadsby


HOH Ranking
O: 1
G: 21

Hart
O: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6
G: 6, 6

Norris
O: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3
G: 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11

Post Season All Stars
O: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4
G: 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 7


Comments:

This is an obvious landslide for Orr. Gadsby is great but at 21 he would be below average
as a number 1 in a 28 team league if you go strictly by rankings.

Meanwhile, Orr is among the hockey immortals.

Bobby Orr is going to play half the game in all situations and he is going to dominate.



Chara vs. Goodfellow

HOH Ranking:
C: 42 (before adding another 3+ & 5th in Norris and another SC Finals to his resume)
G: 43

Hart
C: 8, 12, 13, and more we don't care about
G: 1, 3, 4

Norris
C: 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3+, 4, 5, 7, 8
G: N/A - wasn't introduced

Post Season All Stars
C: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2 (+1 for this season as a Norris Finalist)
G: 1, 1, 2


Comments:

This one was close when the HOH project was completed but Chara is well
ahead with another 5th in Norris last year, a Norris finalist season this year, and a SC Finals last playoffs.



Keith vs. Lutchenko

Tough to compare these two.

Norris:
K: 1, 3+ ,6, 6, 9, 11
L: N/A


Keith
1st Team All Star 2010, +1 This year as Norris Finalist
2010, 2014 Olympic Gold
2010 & 2013 Stanley Cup Champion logging huge minutes.

Lutchenko
1st Team Soviet League All Star (1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977)
Never named to a WC All Star team


Comments:

I'll let someone more informed chime in. I like both these guys but I am not very good at pegging international to NHL accomplishments.

Lutchenko didn't play in the NHL and was up for voting in the HOH in the last round
but didn't make it in the top 60.

Meanwhile Keith is still adding to his career. Where would a guy like Keith slot into the HOH project now?

Doug Wilson was #55 with a somewhat comparable playing style to Keith (more a puck mover type than defensive defenseman)

Wilson's Norris Record:
1, 3, 4, 4, 8

Keith's Norris Record:
1, 3+ ,6, 6, 9, 11

Surely Keith has to slot in around the same range now as Wilson, especially with his playoffs, so I think this is an advantage: Keith.


Green vs. Goldham

Norris
Gr: 3, 7, 9, 13
Go: 4, 5


Post Season All Star
Gr: 3, 6, 6, 10
Go: 3, 5, 7, 8


Comments:

Very close between these two. Both 2nd team all stars once.

Very slight edge in Norris voting for Green with a couple extra seasons, but these guys are practically equal for records despite different styles.



Top 4 Summary

In my opinion we have a strong advantage in our defense core, which we should with Orr leading the way:

Orr >> Gadsby
Chara > Goodfellow
Keith >= Lutchenko
Green = Goldham


I'll have to come back to the bottom pairings when I have more time but I don't think they matter as much.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

I want to see Chicago roll out a Jackson-Lemieux-Conacher line. Thats a ****in' handful even for Chara-Orr.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I want to see Chicago roll out a Jackson-Lemieux-Conacher line. Thats a ****in' handful even for Chara-Orr.

It is a nightmare of a line to handle but if they are together it really kills his depth.

 

[monster_bertuzzi]

It is a nightmare of a line to handle but if they are together it really kills his depth.

It does, but Zetterberg-Novy-Bailey isn't even a terrible 2nd line is it?

 

[BraveCanadian]

It does, but Zetterberg-Novy-Bailey isn't even a terrible 2nd line is it?

I don't think it is terrible, and they would be good defensively on the wings too, but they would be behind our 2nd line offensively to the same degree they are ahead at the moment.

So they would be basically putting all their eggs in one scary basket. But one line only plays 1/3 of the game.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Fair enough for those people that want to do so.. although I really have to question why it happens for Francis and doesn't happen for other players.

Every player who played with superstar linemates has it mentioned, or at least should have it mentioned. Stats are nothing more than how a player did in a certain context, so the context is important.

The effect is easier to quantify for Francis than most, since his time with superstars is well known, and because Francis has a large sample of prime play outside this time, so we have a pretty good idea how good he was on his own. It's much harder for a player like Kevin Stevens, whose prime was so short, we don't really have a good idea of how good he would have been in his prime without Lemieux.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

If you go strictly by VsX your first line is 6.6% better offensively which is probably less than you'd assume when you have Mario Lemieux and I don't.

6.6% is more than you think. Going by individuals, that's Jagr's offense instead of Mikita's, or Mike Bossy's instead of Syd Howe's or Adam Oates' instead of Markus Naslund's. And that's across an entire line, in other words that's like a line of Bossy - Oates - Jagr against Syd Howe - Mikita - Markus Naslund (I know the positions don't match up, but you get the idea).

Then voters will have to factor in the minutes that the players on my first line will be playing with:

Bobby Orr - 7 yr VsX: 109.3 and consider how that might affect how extra productive those minutes will be.

Both of our teams have freakshow offensive talents that are able to boost their teammates' scoring to levels they never could reach alone. Orr's effect on your forwards is not factored in, but neither is Lemieux's effect on his linemates and defensemen.

I agree that Francis is the better defensive player, especially considering he is playing center here and adds extra value through his great faceoff ability there as well.

Not sure if this is even worth mentioning since we're in agreement here, but Zetterberg can easily play LW and still take faceoffs, pretty sure he does that often in real life when he plays LW.

I'll take your word for it because I have no idea how you would estimate them!

Well think of it this way...Novy was the #1 center on those 70's CSSR teams that were very competitive with the Soviets and even won 2 WC Gold Medals. We know that the Soviet team was competitive with the NHL's best. So ask yourself if you think the #1 center on a team that was capable of beating the Soviets was at least as good as Jeremy Roenick offesnively? He also has the domestic scoring stats to back up his case.

To be honest I think you're missing a key ingredient for that strategy.

The Henri Richard type player or Pavel Datsyuk type player in the center.

The comment says Richard was used to slow down Esposito. You do not have a Phil Espoito or even close on your team. IMO we do have one of the stronger 3rd line centers in the draft with Walt Tkazcuk, which will be explored further when 3rd lines are analyzed.

Thoms and Amonte are fourth liners, play them against us as much as possible please.

Yes, 4th liners won't be out there a ton in the playoffs (Amonte also plays on the 2nd PP unit), but that's just another situation where a quick counter-attack will be a threat

That is the nice thing about being paired with Bobby Orr. Big Z can play conservatively and keep positioning, use his wingspan and size to physically dominate the boards and slot.

Bobby Orr is the one with the incredible skating who can be aggressive attacking the puck carrier.

They are perfect complements.

I don't see how this is relevant regarding Chara...he isn't getting beat with speed to the outside in real life because he's caught up ice/out of position.

They do compliment each other well in that one likes to rush and one does not. I think everyone agrees this is the best D pairing in the draft.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I want to see Chicago roll out a Jackson-Lemieux-Conacher line. Thats a ****in' handful even for Chara-Orr.

We will mostly go with the lines in the OP, and sometimes the original lines used in the regular season. The above is more of a situational line for end of periods and when trailing late in games. Any good coach is going to shake up the lines if things aren't working...lineup versatility is probably something we don't focus enough when analyzing ATD teams.

 

[BraveCanadian]

We will mostly go with the lines in the OP, and sometimes the original lines used in the regular season. The above is more of a situational line for end of periods and when trailing late in games. Any good coach is going to shake up the lines if things aren't working...lineup versatility is probably something we don't focus enough when analyzing ATD teams.

That is a good point.

Both teams here have strong coaches and they will juggle things as need be in reaction to situations.

I think we don't give coaches enough credit outside the few that are considered really top ones in the ATD.

Yay for us having home ice.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Chicago has an impressive Top 6 led by Mario Lemieux but their team strength only gives them a
4-7% advantage offensively over Guelph's very effective but less flashy (outside Apps) Top 6.

That is before considering the impact Bobby Orr will have.


So lets look at the defense:

Orr vs Gadsby


HOH Ranking
O: 1
G: 21

Hart
O: 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6
G: 6, 6

Norris
O: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3
G: 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11

Post Season All Stars
O: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4
G: 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 7


Comments:

This is an obvious landslide for Orr. Gadsby is great but at 21 he would be below average
as a number 1 in a 28 team league if you go strictly by rankings.

Meanwhile, Orr is among the hockey immortals.

Bobby Orr is going to play half the game in all situations and he is going to dominate.



Chara vs. Goodfellow

HOH Ranking:
C: 42 (before adding another 3+ & 5th in Norris and another SC Finals to his resume)
G: 43

Hart
C: 8, 12, 13, and more we don't care about
G: 1, 3, 4

Norris
C: 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3+, 4, 5, 7, 8
G: N/A - wasn't introduced

Post Season All Stars
C: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2 (+1 for this season as a Norris Finalist)
G: 1, 1, 2


Comments:

This one was close when the HOH project was completed but Chara is well
ahead with another 5th in Norris last year, a Norris finalist season this year, and a SC Finals last playoffs.



Keith vs. Lutchenko

Tough to compare these two.

Norris:
K: 1, 3+ ,6, 6, 9, 11
L: N/A


Keith
1st Team All Star 2010, +1 This year as Norris Finalist
2010, 2014 Olympic Gold
2010 & 2013 Stanley Cup Champion logging huge minutes.

Lutchenko
1st Team Soviet League All Star (1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977)
Never named to a WC All Star team


Comments:

I'll let someone more informed chime in. I like both these guys but I am not very good at pegging international to NHL accomplishments.

Lutchenko didn't play in the NHL and was up for voting in the HOH in the last round
but didn't make it in the top 60.

Meanwhile Keith is still adding to his career. Where would a guy like Keith slot into the HOH project now?

Doug Wilson was #55 with a somewhat comparable playing style to Keith (more a puck mover type than defensive defenseman)

Wilson's Norris Record:
1, 3, 4, 4, 8

Keith's Norris Record:
1, 3+ ,6, 6, 9, 11

Surely Keith has to slot in around the same range now as Wilson, especially with his playoffs, so I think this is an advantage: Keith.


Green vs. Goldham

Norris
Gr: 3, 7, 9, 13
Go: 4, 5


Post Season All Star
Gr: 3, 6, 6, 10
Go: 3, 5, 7, 8


Comments:

Very close between these two. Both 2nd team all stars once.

Very slight edge in Norris voting for Green with a couple extra seasons, but these guys are practically equal for records despite different styles.



Top 4 Summary

In my opinion we have a strong advantage in our defense core, which we should with Orr leading the way:

Orr >> Gadsby
Chara > Goodfellow
Keith >= Lutchenko
Green = Goldham


I'll have to come back to the bottom pairings when I have more time but I don't think they matter as much.

Agree with most of this in terms of player by player matchup. Here are some comments and some areas where I disagree...

You are missing some of Goodfellow's AS finishes. Should be: 2, 2, 3, 5, 7.
No doubt you got your numbers from hockey-reference. We really all do need to be careful when using that site, as there is plenty of missing data. I think it should just be used to get a quick glance at a player, not for analysis.

Keith vs. Lutchenko is a very difficult comparison. I am a large fan of Duncan Keith, and I do give him the slight edge here. I think Lutchenko has an advantage in number of prime years and Keith has an advantage in terms of peak.

Bob Goldham vs. Ted Green: I disagree on this one, I think Goldham is the better player here. Coincidentally, one year I had both of these guys on my ATD team and Green was on the bottom unit, while Goldham was on the 2nd pairing. Goldham was a stay-at-home solid guy that blocked a lot of shots, but not much flash to his game. Green was offense-first and very aggressive, the type that stood out. Goldham also had much more team success than Green did.

I also don't think Guelph's 2nd pairing works very well from a chemistry perspective. I would rather see Duncan Keith with a less reckless partner who was better defensivel. That could get them into trouble against a high octane offense like Chicago's.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Goaltending

It has been shown and agreed that Guelph has a clear advantage on the blueline, well Chicago has a clear advantage in net, which is a very kep component to a team's defense.

Charlie Gardiner vs. Johnny Bower

Gardiner is a borderline top-10 goalie, while Bower is a below average goalie.

HOH Top Goalies Project:
Gardiner: 11
Bower: 19

AS Finishes:
Gardiner: 1, 1, 1, 2 (the only 4 yrs AS teams existed during his career)
Bower: 1, 3, 3, 3, 3

Most people know that Bower was a clutch playoff performer, but Gardiner was as well, with 2 LEGENDARY performances. One in 1931, while he lost in the Cup Final, he played so well that his opponents carried him off the ice! The other in 1934 when he played through Tuberculosis and carried his team to a Cup win (both with his play and his leadership as team Captain)...eventually paying the ultimate price for his efforts a short time later...talk about a fierce competitor!



++++
I was hoping to get to analyze the 3rd lines today, but it turns out I don't have the adjusted pts spreadsheet on this computer (not at home), so I will have to get to that later. If anyone wants to email it to me, please send me a PM. I have to go through the numbers, but I believe Chicago will end up having a large offensive advantage at ES when comparing 3rd lines. I will also have some comments regarding Joel Otto.

Also, pretty cool that between our two teams 3 of our 3rd liners were a real-life line at one point: Balon - Tkaczuk - Nevin
++++

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

No doubt you got your numbers from hockey-reference. We really all do need to be careful when using that site, as there is plenty of missing data. I think it should just be used to get a quick glance at a player, not for analysis.

.

This times 1000. Way too many holes in hockey reference's awards voting for it to be used as the end point in an analysis. It seems to be less complete the farther back in time we go

 

[BraveCanadian]

Agree with most of this in terms of player by player matchup. Here are some comments and some areas where I disagree...

You are missing some of Goodfellow's AS finishes. Should be: 2, 2, 3, 5, 7.
No doubt you got your numbers from hockey-reference. We really all do need to be careful when using that site, as there is plenty of missing data. I think it should just be used to get a quick glance at a player, not for analysis.

I agree about hockey-reference.

I was copying from the linked profiles for the most part but I must have goofed somewhere copying and pasting and mixed something up.

In any case it doesn't matter.

At this point, with a couple more years of high level accomplishment, Chara is comfortably ahead of Goodfellow.

Keith vs. Lutchenko is a very difficult comparison. I am a large fan of Duncan Keith, and I do give him the slight edge here. I think Lutchenko has an advantage in number of prime years and Keith has an advantage in terms of peak.

Bob Goldham vs. Ted Green: I disagree on this one, I think Goldham is the better player here. Coincidentally, one year I had both of these guys on my ATD team and Green was on the bottom unit, while Goldham was on the 2nd pairing. Goldham was a stay-at-home solid guy that blocked a lot of shots, but not much flash to his game. Green was offense-first and very aggressive, the type that stood out. Goldham also had much more team success than Green did.

I also don't think Guelph's 2nd pairing works very well from a chemistry perspective. I would rather see Duncan Keith with a less reckless partner who was better defensivel. That could get them into trouble against a high octane offense like Chicago's.

Even if we quibble about the #4, they are close.

1-3 are better on Guelph: the first one especially is by a large margin, the second a comfortable margin and the third slightly.

Obviously you guys have a more offensive oriented team but we are very solidly the better defensive team. On transition, with Orr and Keith being able to skate or pass it out of the zone, we will be awesome.

As for the chemistry I needed an aggressive guy with Keith and Green fills that quite well.

 

[BraveCanadian]

It has been shown and agreed that Guelph has a clear advantage on the blueline, well Chicago has a clear advantage in net, which is a very kep component to a team's defense.

Charlie Gardiner vs. Johnny Bower

Gardiner is a borderline top-10 goalie, while Bower is a below average goalie.

HOH Top Goalies Project:
Gardiner: 11
Bower: 19

AS Finishes:
Gardiner: 1, 1, 1, 2 (the only 4 yrs AS teams existed during his career)
Bower: 1

AS Finishes:
Bower: 1, 3, 3, 3, 3 -- after only breaking into the league full time at 34.


As for how good Bower was once he broke in for good (pro and con caveats at the bottom):

I wanted to add a bit more information on just how outstanding Johnny Bower's save percentage numbers were in the 1960s, because that would essentially be the case for him to be considered for a top four spot here.

I already gave his year-by-year rankings, but here's a simple list of overall save percentage from 1958-59 to 1967-68, both regular season and playoffs, among goalies with 150 or more regular season games played:

Rank|Goalie|Reg GP|Reg Sv%|Reg SA/60|PO GP|PO Sv%
1| Johnny Bower |451| .922 |32.2|70| .924
2|Glenn Hall|595|.916|30.6|87|.914
3|Jacques Plante|400|.914|31.2|36|.915
4|Gump Worsley|428|.910|33.3|38|.929
5|Charlie Hodge|269|.910|28.6|12|.922
6|Ed Giacomin|168|.909|30.2|10|.904
7|Terry Sawchuk|435|.904|30.1|56|.908
8|Bruce Gamble|156|.904|34.8|0|N/A
9|Roger Crozier|241|.902|29.6|22|.897
10|Ed Johnston|262|.898|33.9|0|N/A
11|Don Simmons|180|.897|30.3|3|.889

There are very few goalies who have ever been that far ahead of the rest of the league over a decade span. This isn't really a cherry-picked period either, as it includes all of Bower's seasons with more than 20 games played with the exception of his one-off year as a starter in New York in 1953-54. It should be noted that this period was mostly a down time for Plante and Sawchuk, that there was a lot of goalie turnover and platooning around the league near the end of the O6 era, and that the Leafs were a strong defensive team during this period, but even taking all that into account Bower's performance was still pretty impressive.

Gardiner is better but also had a very short career even in relation to Bower. Since everyone is quick to point out how strong TML were defensively during Bower's time, it is worth noting that Chicago was still the best defensive team in the NHL the year after Gardiner left as well and 2nd the year after that -- with two different goalies.

Bower won 1 less Cup as a starter than Gardiner had playoff seasons total.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'll let someone more informed chime in. I like both these guys but I am not very good at pegging international to NHL accomplishments.

Lutchenko didn't play in the NHL and was up for voting in the HOH in the last round
but didn't make it in the top 60.

Meanwhile Keith is still adding to his career. Where would a guy like Keith slot into the HOH project now?

Doug Wilson was #55 with a somewhat comparable playing style to Keith (more a puck mover type than defensive defenseman)

Wilson's Norris Record:
1, 3, 4, 4, 8

Keith's Norris Record:
1, 3+ ,6, 6, 9, 11

Surely Keith has to slot in around the same range now as Wilson, especially with his playoffs, so I think this is an advantage: Keith.

I think it's fair to say that Keith is now only a little bit behind Wilson in terms of regular season prime, and the playoffs probably bridge whatever gap is left in terms of prime. If there's still as case for Wilson, it's that he played quite a few seasons after his prime as a #1 defenseman in the NHL - and playing a number of seasons as a #1 defenseman, even one no longer good enough to get Norris consideration isn't meaningless.

Lutchenko is really hard to rate. We know he's well behind Valeri Vasiliev but well ahead of Gennady Tsygankov and the other Soviet defensemen of the 70s. But that's a very wide range. We also know, based on international play, that he's well behind Frantisek Pospisil at least.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

3rd Lines

Going to begin my comparison of 3rd lines. I think 3rd lines are very important in this series.

We will begin by looking at 7yr weighted adjusted ES pts...

EDIT: Calculated full career adjusted ES pts for both Nevin and Balon, weighted 7yr adjusted ES pts for those two added to the below

Walt Tkaczuk: 50.4
Bob Nevin: 45.2
Dave Balon: 41.0
Brian Sutter: 40.7
Ed Westfall: 36.0
Joel Otto: 30.5

Average Chicago: 45.43
Average Guelph: 35.83

Overall, Chicago has a very big edge offensively, scoring about 27% more at ES


Defensively, here's how I see these guys...

Westfall/Tkaczuk: elite defensively, among the very best in the league while they were playing.

Nevin/Otto: very good defensive players, but not quite elite

Balon: often played in a checking role, but not much evidence as to him really excelling in that role (in his bio all I see is a quote from his old coach that came right after Balon's death)

Sutter: didn't play in a pure checking role as much as these other guys, more of a two-way guy with a lot of grit, hard work, and leadership. Did well in a checking line role later in his career.

An edge to Guelph here, but not nearly enough to overcome the very large offensive discrepancy between the two lines


Something else to consider
As a checking line these guys will be out against the top lines for Chicago, as will their top pairing of Bobby Orr and Zdeno Chara. With this line being so poor offensively, much of Orr's offense will be wasted when out with this group. Orr will always generate offense on his own, but he needs teammates that can finish as well. It appears as if he will be spending a lot of time on the ice with a forward line that is well below average in that regard.


Joel Otto
I do not believe he is up to the task of effectively checking this team. For one, Chicago's speed will be a problem for him.

He had decent skating skills but lacked great speed or agility. He also lacked great hand and puck skills to develop into a great scorer.

Two, I don't think he is the elite kind of defensive player that can effectively check Mario Lemieux. Otto is effective against a Mark Messier type who bowls right through his opposition, but Lemieux is a much more finesse player than that. I do not think Otto has the skill or the hockey IQ to keep up with Lemieux.

Three, he does not have great puck skills and is a black-hole offensively...when he does get the puck, he will likely turn it right back over for a quick Chicago counter-attack.

For those thinking Lemieux will be bullied by Otto...for one, Otto has to catch him first. Two, Lemieux has teammates capable of taking on Otto if need be, particularly Charlie Conacher and Ebbie Goodfellow. If it is warranted, Chicago already has a lineup that puts Conacher on Lemieux's wing.



Overall I see this 3rd line comparison as a large advantage to Chicago and a real weak point for Guelph.

 

[BraveCanadian]

Going to begin my comparison of 3rd lines. I think 3rd lines are very important in this series.

We will begin by looking at 7yr weighted adjusted ES pts...

Walt Tkaczuk: 50.4
Brian Sutter: 40.7
Ed Westfall: 36.0
Joel Otto: 30.5

We only have adjusted ES data from expansion on, and both Dave Balon and Bob Nevin have significant seasons before expansion. Here is how their pre-expansion raw ES numbers look:

Dave Balon
1962: 15
1963: 23
1964: 28
1965: 37
1966: 10
1967: 19

Bob Nevin
1961: 46
1962: 33
1963: 28
1964: 16
1965: 18
1966: 42
1967: 35

Highest to lowest:
Dave Balon: 37, 28, 23, 19, 15, 10
Bob Nevin: 46, 42, 35, 33, 28, 18, 16

Here are their post-expansion adjusted ES pts totals from highest to lowest:

Dave Balon: 66, 47, 41, 32, 26, 24, 8, 3
Bob Nevin: 54, 49, 38, 37, 36, 32, 29, 29, 14

Looking at both the pre and post expansion numbers there appears to be a fairly clear edge for Nevin, the size of that edge is more difficult to determine. I am hoping to hear back from overpass on his formula for determining adjusted ES pts so that can be calculated.

Overall, Chicago appears to have a very big edge offensively


Defensively, here's how I see these guys...

Westfall/Tkaczuk: elite defensively, among the very best in the league while they were playing.

Nevin/Otto: very good defensive players, but not quite elite

Balon: often played in a checking role, but not much evidence as to him really excelling in that role (in his bio all I see is a quote from his old coach that came right after Balon's death)

Sutter: didn't play in a pure checking role as much as these other guys, more of a two-way guy with a lot of grit, hard work, and leadership. Did well in a checking line role later in his career.

An edge to Guelph here, but not nearly enough to overcome the very large offensive discrepancy between the two lines


Something else to consider
As a checking line these guys will be out against the top lines for Chicago, as will their top pairing of Bobby Orr and Zdeno Chara. With this line being so poor offensively, much of Orr's offense will be wasted when out with this group. Orr will always generate offense on his own, but he needs teammates that can finish as well. It appears as if he will be spending a lot of time on the ice with a forward line that is well below average in that regard.


Joel Otto
I do not believe he is up to the task of effectively checking this team. For one, Chicago's speed will be a problem for him.


Two, I don't think he is the elite kind of defensive player that can effectively check Mario Lemieux. Otto is effective against a Mark Messier type who bowls right through his opposition, but Lemieux is a much more finesse player than that. I do not think Otto has the skill or the hockey IQ to keep up with Lemieux.

Three, he does not have great puck skills and is a black-hole offensively...when he does get the puck, he will likely turn it right back over for a quick Chicago counter-attack.

For those thinking Lemieux will be bullied by Otto...for one, Otto has to catch him first. Two, Lemieux has teammates capable of taking on Otto if need be, particularly Charlie Conacher and Ebbie Goodfellow. If it is warranted, Chicago already has a lineup that puts Conacher on Lemieux's wing.



Overall I see this 3rd line comparison as a large advantage to Chicago and a real weak point for Guelph.

I don't think this is true whatsoever.

For one, I don't care about much offensive from this line. I have three other lines to do that. Their job is to waste the time of the line they are facing.

Two, of course players that had opportunities to play on higher lines with more ice time in real life have better scoring numbers than guys who played primarily 3rd line roles in real life and are doing so again here. Which is 2/3rds of me line. On top of that, Westfall also played defense!

You're basically saying the same thing TDMM does every time he brings up Bergeron's offense in comparison to traditional 3rd liners in this.. of course he has more ES offense. Boston is a great ES team and he plays 1a/1b minutes with Krecji not strictly 3rd line ES minutes behind Nieuwendyk and Gilmour. (although I think Bergeron is very good in this draft before he bites my head off! -- it was just an example). Sutter played a lot with Federko, for example.

It is no surprise at all to me.

And yes of course they have to have the talent and/or lack of team depth to get those opportunities but the question is how much would these guys produce in 3rd line minutes like they are playing here.

I am sure the gap would close substantially.


Joel Otto

You say Otto will have trouble keeping up -- but somehow he was a thorn in the side of a much better skater than Lemieux when he was checking Messier all those years.... Otto also has the size, reach, and outstanding eye-hand to compete for loose pucks with Lemieux.

Obviously no one is going to stop Lemieux totally, but Otto is well suited to slowing him down and pestering him which has gotten Lemieux off his game in the past.


As for Otto being very good but not elite, these are when Otto was already in his 30s:

Coaches Poll 1993:

Best Defensive Forward: Doug Gilmour (6), Joel Otto (5), Ron Francis (3), Dirk Graham (2), Brent Sutter (2), Murray Craven (1), Guy Carbonneau (1), Kelly Miller (1)

This in Gilmour's immortal season.

Best Faceoff Man: Joel Otto (4), Peter Stastny (3),Ron Francis (3), Doug Gilmour (2), Adam Oates (2), Peter Zezel (1)

Hardest Worker: Doug Gilmour (6), Jeremy Roenick (5), Craig MacTavish (3), Kirk Muller (3), Kelly Miller (1), Pat Lafontaine (1), Ray Bourque (1), Joel Otto (1)


Coaches Poll 1994

Best Defensive Forward: Sergei Fedorov (6), Doug Gilmour (3), Brian Skrudland (3), Guy Carbonneau (2), Adam Graves (2), Joel Otto (1), Mark Messier (1), Wayne Gretzky (1), Ron Francis (1)

Best Faceoff Man: Ron Francis (10), Joel Otto (7), Doug Gilmour (1), Ron Sutter (1), Adam Oates (1)


1994 St Louis Post-Dispatch Coaches Poll, in conjunction with Beckett Hockey Magazine.

Best Faceoff Man
1. Joel Otto (8) 2. Ron Francis (7) 3. (tie) Doug Gilmour, Eric Lindros, Mark Messier (2).

Best Defensive Forward
1. Sergei Fedorov (5) 2. (tie) Guy Carbonneau, Doug Gilmour, Joel Otto, Brian Skrudland (3).

Best Penalty Killer
1. Guy Carbonneau (6) 2. (tie) Sergei Fedorov, Adam Graves, Joel Otto (3)

Best Shot Blocker
1. Guy Carbonneau (12) 2. Craig Ludwig (4).
Others (1) Garth Butcher, Steve Chaisson, Mike Keane, Craig MacTavish, Craig Muni, Joel Otto

He was good enough to captain Team USA at the 1991 Canada Cup.

He was a good to play for Team USA in the 1996 at the age of 34 World Cup and help beat Canada.

They still wanted him for the Olympics in 1998 in the twilight of his career at 36.

...
"Otto has been one of the NHL's premier two-way centers for the last 10 years. He was one of three finalists for this year's Selke Award which was won by the Penguins' Ron Francis. The trophy goes to the best defensive forward.

Otto would seem the perfect complement to Francis: he has the same kind of defensive skills and commitment and he plays a much more physical game at 6-4 220 pounds.

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