Please Read, and do so with an open-mind! This post is basically my "summary of arguments", so it's the most important one to read.
I'll make several more posts to defend and establish my arguments after this, you don't have to read those unless you're interested in those particular arguments, but at least read this one!
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First off, let me start by saying that I think the dynamic of this matchup is very similar to when my team fought against the St. Pats in the division finals. NJ is a tougher opponent for sure, and a few things are different, but overall, my arguments will echo a lot of the ones I made in that series.
I think that this series is in many ways similar to that one because the big challenge for Vancouver will be containing the New Jersey 1st line as much as we can. Any line with Gordie Howe won't be shutdown for an entire series, but a lot can be done to make a line less effective and less productive. Call it damage control, if you will, and I don't think there is a better team than the Vancouver Maroons at slowing the pace of the game, taking minutes off the clock, grinding a line down, and limiting scoring opportunities. Not to mention, Vancouver has a monster of a fail-safe between the pipes in Patrick Roy. Beating Vancouver's goalie is a whole other challenge in itself.
Once you look past the 1st line challenge though, Vancouver has all the assets and capabilities to come out on top through the course of the series. Vancouver plays a style of game that has proven to be incredibly effective, and Vancouver is a team that is very well suited to this style.
I think that Vancouver can come out on top because:
- Vancouver is completely committed to the defensive aspect of the game and a much better defensive team
- Vancouver's forward group is more versatile and multi-dimensional, and boasts 2 incredible two-way players on each line
- Vancouver has a stronger 2nd line, and a stronger checking line.
- NJ is going to be almost entirely dependent on their first line to win the series. Vancouver wins 2/3s of the line matchup (60% of the ES game) and has more balanced scoring, and better secondary scoring.
- Vancouver will most likely own the neutral-zone because of their style of play.
- Vancouver has a superior goalie, Patrick Roy vs Charlie Gardiner
- Vancouver has a clearly stronger penalty kill, whereas the PPs of both teams are very comparable in terms of effectiveness. The PP's conversion rate is largely dependent on the strength of the opposing penalty kill though, and because Vancouver has such a better penalty kill, Vancouver has a special teams advantage.
As for the bluelines, I don't think either team boasts a significant advantage on the blue line. Both Vancouver and NJ's bluelines are very solid and can get the job done in every aspect, and very close in terms of quality. I can't see either blue line making a difference in this series over the other. I know TDMM made a post comparing the bluelines, and I'm definitely going to address that post later.
Coach Lemaire has decided that Vancouver will be more likely to win this series if we cut our losses against the first line, and rather than try to battle against them, just throw up an air-tight defensive barricade against the NJ top line, and then control the rest of the game against two weaker opposing lines that will be out-matched in every sense.
So, ultimately, the game plan is to play an extremely tight, cautious, mistake-free defensive game as usual, and make sure that we make it as difficult as possible for the other team to get any quality scoring chances. Vancouver will do the best it can to contain the NJ 1st line, and then let the other 2 lines (Schmidt's and Gilmour's) win their matchups offensively and defensively. Vancouver will also look to get that extra scoring boost in close, tight games by capitalizing on turnovers (zoom zoom Bure) and PP opportunities that will arise as a result of the trap frustrating and aggravating New Jersey.
That's why I think Bure's speed and ability to beat defensemen 1-on-1, and Vancouver's special teams advantage in this series can be so crucial. That extra little bit can make a huge difference late in the game. All it takes is 1 bad turnover in the neutral zone with Bure out there to make THE difference in these kinds of games.
In the next set of posts, I'm going to do some in-depth discussions about the major points I've made...
1.
Vancouver's defensive play / the neutral zone trap
2.
The 3 main forward line matchups
3.
Comparing the blues lines (
Howell = underrated)
4.
Vancouver's special team's advantage (PK/PP)
5.
Vancouver's extremely clutch players, and a couple notable NJ chokers.
6.
What a difference Patrick Roy can make!