Good luck Chaos. I had your team ranked higher than 7th; it’s unfortunate we have to meet in the first round. There are a lot of similarities between our teams. Both teams boast fast, skilled, disciplined forwards, punishing bluelines, and elite, proven goalies. (Tretiak continues to be a polarizing figure and it will be interest to see how this affects the series).
Why Thunder Bay Will Win
- Advantage: Offense from the blueline.
- Details: VanIslander and I had a consistent vision when creating this team. We wanted our top six forwards to be fast and highly skilled; equally important was the need to have a fast blueline who could join the rush and/or make breakout passes. I think we’ve largely succeeded with this strategy – Conacher, Maltsev, Kariya and Modano were all outstanding skaters and they’re supported by Lidstrom and Zubov (two very fast playmakers, both willing to join the rush). Pronger is not quite an elite skater but has the proven ability to make brilliant breakout passes. Even Suter was a solid (probably underrated) skater who was able to join the rush. In short, the Twins have a highly skilled, speedy group of forwards that are appropriately supported by a fast, mobile blueline, who can generate significant transitional offense.
- In contrast, for all the speed and skill that Team Soviet Union’s forwards have, I don’t think their blueline suitable. I’m a big fan of Vasiliev and believe his combination of speed and playmaking ability is a huge asset to TSU; but the rest of the blueline does not fit the team. Konstantinov was a limited offensive contributor. Lutchenko had a great slapshot and is dangerous on the PP (I believe VanIslander underrated him in this regard) but was not a great playmaker or rushing defenseman I don’t expect him to make any significant scoring contributions at even strength. Griffis is interesting – he was a fast, skilled rover but I would expect his offensive contributions to decrease considerably as he’s forced to play more conservatively as a defenseman. Overall, Vasiliev will have to step up considerably if Team Soviet Union wants any chance to maximize their forwards’ speed and skill. (Clearly, though, this has a cost as the more time Vasiliev spends rushing, the less he can focus on checking).
- Advantage: The Twins have superior penalty killing.
- Details: among our bottom six forwards, the Twins have quick three-time Selke finalist Madden, three-time retro Selke winner Berlinquette, speedy two-way threat St. Louis, and two forwards who thrived in their role of killing penalties on strong teams (Goyette and Rousseau). TSU’s best defensive forwards appear to be Fedorov, Apps and Dumart, which is problematic. Will Team Soviet Union over-work and exhaust Fedorov, Apps and Dumart by giving them extensive ES, PP and PK duty? If so, the less-overworked Cowley, Conacher and Maltsev should prove to be the difference. The alternative is also problematic – Russel, Steen, Gustafsson and Berenson are all solid defensive players but if they are underwhelming as #1 and #2 penalty killers.
- It is also worth mentioning that three of our best penalty killing defensemen (Lidstrom, Hajt and Zubov) are highly disciplined; they are they unlikely to take penalties and should be available for most penalty kills. The same cannot be said for the relatively heavily penalized Konstantinov and Lutchenko (and, in fairness, Pronger).
How Thunder Bay Can Lose
- Disadvantage: Our top six forwards are fairly small, though only two of them (Maltsev and Kariya) should be considered soft.
- How to counter this disadvantage: although TSU has an aggressive, hard-hitting blueline, there’s only one of the top four defenseman combines toughness with sufficient speed to consistently hit the Twins’ speedy forwards. Vasiliev’s devastating hitting and superb skating ability makes him a significant threat; however I question whether Konstantinov and Lutchenko are fast enough to hit Maltsev or Kariya on a consistent basis.
- This matchup is favourable in the sense that Team Soviet Union also has fairly small, non-aggressive top six forwards. Ciccarelli is the only forward on either team who relies heavily on strength and toughness. However, he is at a clear disadvantage in this series for two reasons. First, Ciccarelli was notorious for taking dumb penalties; Samuelsson will play around 10 minutes per game, most of that matched up against Ciccarelli. Samuelsson should be able to agitate Ciccarelli into taking a few stupid penalties in the series; at the very lease Samuelsson will be more than willing to drop the gloves as having our #6 defenseman and their top six forward go to the box at the same time is a good deal. Furthermore, Ciccarelli’s poor skating ability puts him at a distinct disadvantage against the Twins’ very fast forwards and defensemen.
- Disadvantage: As VanIslander mentioned, Hap Day is clearly a superior coach to Bill Reay.
- How to counter this disadvantage: Reay, who is best known for coaching the Hull/Mikita Blackhawks, is in a familiar environment. The Twins are a fast, skilled team. One of Reay’s strengths was his ability to stand back and let his players use their considerable skills without excess interference. Additionally, having home ice advantage in this series will allow us to obtain more favorable matchups.