ATD #10, Bob Cole Quarterfinals. Toronto Maple Leafs (6) vs Togliatti Lada (3)

MXD

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The center of the universe vs. The outer edge of the universe


Toronto Maple Leafs
GM: Leaf Lander
Coaches: Ron Wilson, Pat Quinn

Bobby Hull (C) - Mats Sundin (A) - Alex Mogilny
Gary Roberts - Dave Keon - Jari Kurri
Bob Davidson - Mike Modano - Bob Nevin (A)
Brenden Morrow- Murray Oliver - Bill Ezinicki
extra: Evgeni Malkin

Babe Pratt - Allan Stanley
Barclay Plager - Stefan Persson
Mathieu Schneider - Ted Harris
extra: Tomas Kaberle

Turk Broda
Curtis Joseph

Power play units:
PP1: Hull - Modano - Kurri - Pratt - Stanley
PP2: Roberts - Sundin - Mogilny - Schneider - Kaberle

Penalty killing units:
PK1: Keon - Nevin - Pratt - Stanley
PK2: Oliver - Ezinicki - Plager - Perrson

VS

Lada Togliatti
GM: nik jr
Coach: Fred Shero

Michel Goulet - Bobby Clarke (C) - Jarome Iginla
Baldy Northcott - Sidney Crosby - Rick Middleton
Steve Vickers - Phil Goyette - Bernie Morris
Gerard Gallant - Ken Mosdell - Nick Metz
extras: Pavel Datsyuk, Bobby Schmautz

Brad Park (A) - Terry Harper
Bill Quakenbush - Lionel Hitchman (A)
James Patrick - Dave Burrows
extra: Brian Engblom

Bernie Parent
Tom Barrasso

Power play units:
PP1: Goulet - Clarke - Iginla - Park - Quackenbush
PP2: Middleton - Crosby - Morris - Patrick - Goyette

Penalty killing units:
PK1: Clarke - Metz - Hitchman - Park
PK2: Mosdell - Northcott - Burrows - Harper
 
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Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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Why Toronto Will Win

[1] Goaltending. Parent arguably had the best two-year peak of any goalie, but I think a lot of people ignore his inconsistency. Yes, he was unbeatable in the ’74 and ’75 playoffs. However few remember that those seasons were surrounded by three years where he went 5-10 with a 3.40 GAA in the PO. Conversely, Broda was a model of consistency in the PO; it looks like the only really bad year he had was his final season at age 37. Parent and Broda are pretty similar at their peaks; but historical evidence suggests Parent will be inconsistent and will be outshined once or twice during the series. That may be the difference.

[2] Discipline. The Leafs will spend very little time in the penalty box. Although they do have some aggressive grinders (Roberts, Morrow, Davidson), all of their key players are level-headed and will ensure that Lada has few chances to use their dangerous PP. Their three most dangerous scorers (Hull, Kurri, Keon) have combined for exactly one 70-PIM season; their key defensive forwards (Nevin, Modano and the aforementioned Keon) have also exactly one 70-PIM season. (That’s an arbitrary statistic, obviously, but it does highlight how effectively the Leafs avoid the penalty box). Will Toronto’s advantage in discipline be amplified since they’re up against a Shero-coached team?

Why Lada Will Win

[1] Top two defensemen. I’d argue that Lada has the two best defensemen in this series. I won’t re-hash my position on Brad Park argument yet again (unless requested) but I consider him a top-ten defensemen in NHL history and only Orr stopped him from winning 3-5 Norris trophies. Bill Quackenbush is one of the most underrated defensemen ever; he was a five-time all-star, played disciplined positional defense (a weak imitation of Lidstrom) and, during his career, was second only to Red Kelly in defensemen scoring.

In contrast, Allan Stanley is a solid #2 defenseman but at best is an even match with Quackenbush (and even that may be a stretch—Quackenbush has a better trophy case, was better offensively, and Stanley’s slow-footedness puts him at a disadvantage against the speedy Togiliattas (sp?)). Frankly I’m skeptical of Babe Pratt. This defenseman never topped 28 pts in a season and never earned any major awards. Then during WWII he starts eclipsing his former career high by 50% and earns a Hart and a couple of all-star berths. After the war’s over, Pratt is back to being a solid defensive defenseman. This isn't the WWII-depleted NHL and I think that Pratt is a lower-end #2 defenseman here.

[2] Toronto’s top line. I have no issues with this line from a talent perspective, but I just don’t see them clicking in real life. All three players are primarily goal-scorers and, while they’re all good playmakers, I could see them getting frustrated and shooting too early. Additionally, Hull and Sundin both prefer to carry the puck up the ice themselves, which could cause further chemistry problems. Finally, I’m skeptical about Mogilny; nobody questions his talent but the bottom line is he’s only had three seasons as an elite scorer. Repeated nagging injuries and (presumably) indifference have kept him from being a HOF player in the NHL – which Mogilny will decide to show up in the ATD playoffs?
 
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Leaf Lander

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babe pratt-- Hart Memorial Trophy Winner (1944)
1998, he was ranked number 96 on The Hockey News' list of the 100 Greatest Hockey Players

Allan Stanley
2nd All-Star Team Defense (1960, 1961, 1966) 433 points to "Quackenbush

Pratt has 2 cups
Stanley has 4 cups
Barclay Plager -0 -3 final appearances
Stefan Persson -4 cups
Mathieu Schneider - 1 cup
Ted Harris- 5 cups
extra: Tomas Kaberle no cups haha


Quackenbush has none
Park has no cups
Both are stellar regular season players only

broda 5 cups

Terry Harper-4
- Lionel Hitchman (A) 2 cups
James Patrick - 0 cups
Dave Burrows-0 cups
extra: Brian Engblom- 3 cups
 
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God Bless Canada

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Last analysis of the night. Will try to get the other six series done tomorrow...

I don't see an elite playmaker anywhere in Toronto's line-up. A lot of good playmakers. But not somebody who is elite. I believe the best finish in the assists race for a player on the Leafs was Modano, who finished fourth once. That's not to say there aren't good playmakers. Hull, Sundin, Kurri, Modano and Mogilny are all good playmakers. But nobody who is at the elite level.

Incidentally, I think Mogilny had the potential to be an elite playmaker - his skill level was incredible - but lacked the determination and the mentality to be an elite offensive player at the NHL level on a year-to-year basis.

I don't think lada's first line is as talented as Toronto's, but I think it's a better assembled unit. It's the prototypical ATD first line - a skilled playmaker (Clarke), a crash and bang goal scorer (Iginla) and a dual offensive threat (Goulet) who can beat you with goal scoring and playmaking.

As I said before, I'd pay to watch Lada's second line. That will be a very tough line for Toronto to defend. They'll want to avoid having Stanley out there against Crosby and Middleton. Stanley's solid and smart, but his lack of footspeed will be an issue.

I look forward to seeing a lot of shifts between Lada's second line and Toronto's second line, and I think the team that wins that match-up will likely win the series.

HO, I don't agree with this statement about Toronto's first line:

"Additionally, Hull and Sundin both prefer to carry the puck up the ice themselves, which could cause further chemistry problems."

Part of the key to winning this thing is getting guys to buy into their roles. It's about attitude. Sundin has a great attitude. (The last few months not withstanding). He hates to lose. He'll buy into carrying the puck less. If his attitude sucked, I'd be worried. Mogilny's the one I'd be concerned about. His attitude sucks.

I don't think either team has an overwhelming third line. I think Toronto would have one if Keon was on the third line. The x-Keon-Nevin line would be one of the best third lines in the draft.

But I love the fourth lines for both teams. Two of the best in the draft. Morrow and Ezinicki will be very tough to play against with their tremendous grit and aggressiveness. Lada's fourth line might be the most difficult to score against in the draft. I'm expecting that line to log a lot of ice time against the Sundin line.

The big edge on the blue line goes to Lada. Both teams have a lot of defensively responsible forwards, but Lada has the top two defencemen in the series. I do think Pratt is good enough to be a No. 2 - 28 points was pretty good for a defenceman before the war. But Park and Quackenbush are the clear cut top two defencemen in the series.

Toronto has good depth on the blue-line, but they lack a guy who can be counted on for more than 23 minutes a game.

It'll be worth watching the Harper vs. Hull match-up. Hull has acknowledged how tough it was playing against Harper, despite Hull's edge in speed.

I'm guessing the Hull line will be out there against the Park or Quackenbush tandems almost every shift.

I agree that Toronto has an edge in net. Especially in the playoffs. Le Rocket's initial plan was to get Broda in the second round. Then we got Morenz, and decided to go with Geoffrion. Broda's one of the best playoff performers of all-time. His GAA plummeted in the playoffs. A plummeting investment is bad. A plummeting GAA is good.

Give an edge to Lada behind the bench. Shero's better than Wilson or Quinn (by a big margin) and The Fog is reunited with Bobby Clarke, too.

This series will likely come down to which team wins the war of the second lines (I think they'll be out there against each other a lot, with the skill of Crosby's line and the two-way play of Keon's line); how well Harper fares against Hull; and whether Toronto can overcome the edge that Lada has with their top two defencemen.
 

Hockey Outsider

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babe pratt-- Hart Memorial Trophy Winner (1944)
1998, he was ranked number 96 on The Hockey News' list of the 100 Greatest Hockey Players

As I mentioned in my initial post, Pratt accomplished nothing of note when the NHL was at full strength. Before WWII, Pratt had no personal awards and a career high of 28 pts (good for the era). Then he scores at a phenomenal rate (39, 57 and 41 pts), wins the Hart, and is a two-time all-star during the war-depleted years. Once the NHL returns to normal in 1946, Pratt is back to being a solid defenseman, but nothing more. Pratt is the perfect example of player who took advantage of the WWII weakened league.

Allan Stanley
2nd All-Star Team Defense (1960, 1961, 1966) 433 points to "Quackenbush

Quackenbush (1st team in 1948, 1949 and 1951; 2nd team in 1947 and 1953) has a better trophy case.

You're comparing statics from two different eras. When Quackenbush played ('43 to '56) he was the second-highest scoring defenseman in the league (only Red Kelly was better). During Stanley's best 14 years ('51 to '64) he was 4th behind Kelly, Harvey and Gadsby. Granted, it's not a huge advantage, but if anything it further supports my position that Quackenbush was somewhat better than Stanley.

Quackenbush has none
Park has no cups
Both are stellar regular season players only

The "counting Cups" argument doesn't take into account the context.

- Park was the MVP at the 1972 Summit Series, which clearly shows that he was a big-game performer. Incredibly, Park was 5th in scoring during the playoffs in the 1970s (90 pts!). His greatest moment was 1978 when he dragged the Bruins to the Stanley Cup finals... he was actually just 1 point behind playoff scoring leader Guy Lafleur that spring. He was top three in defensemen PO scoring in '74, '76, '77 and '78, and, obviously, was a great defensive player. Park was consistently a great PO performer, it's not his fault he played on good (though never great) teams.
- I don't pretend to have any great insights about Quackenbush but it's worth mentioning that his offense (points-per-game) nearly doubles in the PO. Beyond that, I don't have any info (good or bad). I'm not saying he's a Smythe candidate but how is he a regular season player only?
 
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nik jr

Registered User
Sep 25, 2005
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congratulations to LL for another strong team. good luck.

HO:

togliatti is the city. lada is the team name.

::

some thoughts:

goaltending is a slight advantage to TML, b/c of parent's short (though very high) peak.

hull is the best player and biggest (only?) gamebreaker.

i think my advantages are team D, special teams and brad park and quackenbush.

::

i tried to form a tight-checking team similar to shero's and clarke's flyers and to park's bruins.
none of my d-men are weak defensively, and many of my fowards were good defensive players who played for defensive teams.
all of my C's, except crosby, were very good defensively, while still providing scoring punch. crosby is weaker defensively, but he's flanked by very good 2 way wingers.

pitseleh posted a 1935 newspaper clipping in which bill cook gives his opinion on the best players in certain areas.
http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=16227508&postcount=68

cook thought baldy northcott was the toughest defensive forward to beat.
northcott is the "glue guy" on the line, but he is also a scorer, finishing as high as 3rd in scoring and was playoff scoring leader for the champion maroons in '35.


hull will face my top 2 pairings as much as possible.


i think the difference between kurri and middleton is much smaller than their draft position indicates. kurri is better, but i think kurri without 99 would be around 55-110, while middleton was around 45-100 (in a more defensive environment).


i want to say a few things about bernie morris, who is not very well-known.

morris was among the elite players of the PCHA. a couple of times he trailed only cyclone taylor in scoring.

PCHA goal leader: 1916
PCHA assist leader: 1918
PCHA scoring leader: 1917
PCHA first team all-star: 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1922
PCHA second team all-star: 1921, 1923

2nd in PCHA scoring: 1916, 1918

seattle metropolitans scoring leader '16, '17, '18, '19 and '22.

i know some GMs are skeptical of PCHA accomplishments, but morris proved he could score against the NHA when he scored 14g in the 4 games of the '17 metropolitans cup victory over the powerful lalonde/vezina/pitre canadiens.

morris is an important source of secondary scoring.


i think special teams will be an important advantage for me. according to the voters, lada has the strongest PK in the division and the 2nd strongest PP.

i think the faceoff prowess of clarke, goyette and mosdell are especially important for special teams.
 

seventieslord

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Unfortunately, this series won't provide the entertainment that LL's last first round series provided. nik jr is too.... diplomatic.
 
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Sturminator

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A few comments on a series I find quite interesting:

- Brad Park is not only a regular season player. In fact, he is one of the greatest postseason blueliners in history. Park's performance in 1978 is arguably as good as any single-season playoffs from a defenseman not named Orr, and he was the rock of a Rangers team that didn't always bring its best game in the playoffs. I know you were just sort of throwing that one out there, Paul, but it's not true. Brad Park was a tremendous money player who simply never played for the best team in the league. Counting Cups is about my least favorite argument in the ATD.

- I don't know how Toronto's forwards should be lined up. It doesn't really matter much who you line up next to Bobby Hull, so that's not an issue. This is why I liked the original Hull - Keon - Kurri line so much. Keon - Kurri is a great fit in terms of two-way play and both were unselfish enough to get Hull the puck and let him do his thing. Bobby Hull's linemates may not matter much, but they do matter in the sense that they should at least be worthy of pulling 1st line minutes in an ATD. I'm not entirely sure that Sundin - Mogilny really are. Sundin can hold it down for you as a lower-end 1st liner, but Almo does not belong anywhere near an ATD top unit. These are the lines I'd like to see:

Hull - Modano - Kurri
Roberts - Sundin - Mogilny
Davidson - Keon - Nevin
etc.

Kurri is like Lehtinen on steroids and we all know how well Modano and Lehtinen played together. Although Mo is low-end for a 1st line center, this would give you a very nasty 1st line, IMO: tremendous size, speed and talent and excellent two-way ability, as well. Sundin could skate on the 1st line, as well, but I think Modano is the better fit because he'll probably work better with Kurri and gives the line a defensive presence that it wouldn't have with Sundin.

You can then employ the dreaded Keon - Nevin combination in what would surely be a ridiculous two-way 3rd line. Minutes for the Sundin and Keon lines needn't be standard 2nd/3rd line minutes, as really any line centered by Dave Keon shouldn't get bottom-6 minutes. It's all about having your best players on the ice with the best possible fits for as long as possible. With Sundin - Mogilny on your top line, I don't think that's happening.

- Bernie Morris is a player I've discovered (but not drafted) this time around while researching Frank Foyston. I believe he was taken well below his true value. The guy could flat-out score, and seems to have a worthy Hall of Fame resume if not for the whole draft-dodging thing. I think he's probably in the category of solid late-pick 2nd line wingers, or a very strong scoring 3rd liner. Morris and Goyette are the core of a very strong scoring 3rd line.

- how many games before Bobby Clarke slaps Barrasso around in the lockerroom?
 

pappyline

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Jul 3, 2005
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I really like this Leafs team & actually picked them first in the division. As others have mentioned they have a great group of forwards but it is hard to fit the pieces together. You can pretty much put anybody with Hull & he will still score his goals. The big question is who do you put with Hull to maximize his effectiveness. I personally like Hull-Sundin-Mogilny. Can see them playing a similiar style to Hull-Nilsson-Hedberg except more physical. Hull & Sundin are going to create a lot of room for each other & for Mogilny. I think Keon would be wasted on a checking line & like Roberts-Keon-Kurri line. One of the best 2 way lines in the draft.

Lada has a nice set of forwards too but not of the scoring potentil that the Leafs have. On D I give Lada the advantage. As has been said Park & Quackenbush are the two best in the series.

Goaltending is close. Both Broda & Parent are clutch with Broda having the longer peak.

Should be a great series,.
 

nik jr

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1. Guy Lafleur 120
1. Jacques Lemaire 120
3. Phil Esposito 102
4. Jean Ratelle 93
5. Brad Park 90
6. Yvon Cournoyer 88
7. Bobby Clarke 83
8. Bobby Orr 82
9. Rick MacLeish 80
10. Johnny Bucyk 77
10. Wayne Cashman 77

brad park is the only d-man in history to make the top 5 in playoff scoring for a decade. (harvey, pilote, orr and coffey were 6th-8th in their decades)

park is also the only d-man to have led a cup finalist in both goals and points. 9g and 20p in 15 games in '78.

park was only a minus player twice in his career, in his last 2 seasons with the terrible "dead wings" in 84 and '85. he was twice above +60.



some things about clarke:

A few years I found the results of a 1976 NHL coaches poll from the Toronto Star which I printed here http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=190951

The poll asked head coaches to rate the best players in various categories. Just to give an idea of how highly regarded Clarke was:

Best Penalty Killer: Bobby Clarke
Best Checker: Bobby Clarke
Best on Faceoffs: Bobby Clarke
Hardest Worker: Bobby Clarke
Best Playmaker: Bobby Clarke
Most Valuable Player: Bobby Clarke
First Player You`d Choose Starting a Team From Scratch: Bobby Clarke

I can't think of any other forward I've ever seen who's complete game was that far reaching.


clarke's even strength goals for and against:

year - ESGF - ESGA

1974-- 71 -- 36
1975-- 98 --19
1976-- 105 -- 22
1977-- 85 -- 46
1978-- 80 --33

that is incredible. during his 2 best seasons, only 20g were scored on clarke at even strength in an entire 80 game season.

i believe the only post-expansion player with similar ESGF and ESGA is bobby orr.
 

seventieslord

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1. Guy Lafleur 120
1. Jacques Lemaire 120
3. Phil Esposito 102
4. Jean Ratelle 93
5. Brad Park 90
6. Yvon Cournoyer 88
7. Bobby Clarke 83
8. Bobby Orr 82
9. Rick MacLeish 80
10. Johnny Bucyk 77
10. Wayne Cashman 77

brad park is the only d-man in history to make the top 5 in playoff scoring for a decade. (harvey, pilote, orr and coffey were 6th-8th in their decades)

park is also the only d-man to have led a cup finalist in both goals and points. 9g and 20p in 15 games in '78.

park was only a minus player twice in his career, in his last 2 seasons with the terrible "dead wings" in 84 and '85. he was twice above +60.



some things about clarke:




clarke's even strength goals for and against:

year - ESGF - ESGA

1974-- 71 -- 36
1975-- 98 --19
1976-- 105 -- 22
1977-- 85 -- 46
1978-- 80 --33

that is incredible. during his 2 best seasons, only 20g were scored on clarke at even strength in an entire 80 game season.

i believe the only post-expansion player with similar ESGF and ESGA is bobby orr.

I am pretty sure you are right. I think the all-time leaders in career +/- per game are Bobby Orr, Bobby Clarke, and Jimmy Watson, in that order.
 

Leaf Lander

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believe me I am beyond caring

i ake getting voted out of this thing early as a badge

last yr i had a great defense and was voted out because someone had a b team Russian team that had great players in it. There were great newfoundland players too who played senior hockey but they arent east enough to count;)

Good luck to you nik I like your team:)

I do however vote in every rnd....
 

Rick Middleton

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May 14, 2002
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You're in a bit of a sticky wicket here, LL. You have 3 legitimate 1st line centers, each of which brings a different skill set to the table. Keon would bring more defense, Modano more speed and playmaking, and Sundin more offense and puckhandling. I honestly think Sturm's proposed lineup gives you the best chance of winning. It optimizes the talents of all three, and gives you 3 very capable ATD lines.

And just as an aside, holding your breath and stating that getting voted out in the first round is a badge of honor for you wont endear you to too many GM's. It makes you seem like a grown child. This is in my opinion the best ATD team you've fielded to date. Run with that, not with the 'everyone votes against me' whine.
 

Nalyd Psycho

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Offence: We've all heard the debates about whether or not LL's lines will click. But, one thing is clear, he has a lot of raw talent up front. Lada's 1st line is very well built, but not a mind blowing collection of talent. Offense from the blueline is a slight edge to Lada though.

Defence: Really like that both teams have scoring lines that can check. I prefer the Leafs defensive forwards, but, I prefer Lada's defensive d-men.

Goaltending: I absolutly agree with H.O. on this issue. Parent has a great peak, but Broda has a great career.

Coaching: Huge edge for Lada, not to take away from Quinn, but Shero is a clear edge.

Intangibles: No real details jump out at me.
 

Transplanted Caper

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After ten drafts it shocks me the number of people who take some of LL's posts siriusly. His tongue is firmly in his cheek half the time.
 
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I can't help but laugh at Sturm's line-up. Not because it's bad, but because I think it's the exact same line-up as LL originally had(maybe with Davidson on the third instead of Morrow). I haven't seen so many people having different preferences with a group of forwards.
 

nik jr

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Sep 25, 2005
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its crazy to say that my lines wouldn't click
great players are great for a reason

You just cant stop genrational talents like bobby orr gretzky howe lemieux richard or hull. They will beat you always unles they are playing each other;)

superior D has often overcome talent, especially when the greater offensive team has suspect D.
there are many examples of more talented teams, often led by generational talents losing to teams with better D.

for example, the clarke/parent flyers defeated the orr/esposito bruins (which had the top 4 scorers in the NHL) in the '74 finals.
 

MXD

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Oct 27, 2005
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I'm not particularily a fan of Lada (and even less a fan of Harper on the first pairing...), but they indeed drafted the perfect wingers to play with Clarkie...
 

MXD

Original #4
Oct 27, 2005
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superior D has often overcome talent, especially when the greater offensive team has suspect D.
there are many examples of more talented teams, often led by generational talents losing to teams with better D.

for example, the clarke/parent flyers defeated the orr/esposito bruins (which had the top 4 scorers in the NHL) in the '74 finals.

That's the problem IMO... Both squads forwards are pretty much equal when it comes to the defensive side of the game (even when taking Clarkie in the equation, as I think Leafs Bot-6 is better on the defensive side ), and while your D is superior to LL's squad, the gap isn't THAT big. I actually prefer LL's 3rd pairing, and I already said what I had to say about Harper. Of course your Top-3 is way superior to his Top-3 (it's basically your top-3 guys, then his top-3 guys...)
 

nik jr

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Sep 25, 2005
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i do agree that TML has better defensive forwards among the bottom 6.
but d-men are the main defensive players.

imo, TML's blueline can be exploited.

pratt made his career during WW2 when the NHL was 1/2 minor leaguers. both before and after WW2, he was not an elite player.

stanley was very good defensively (i was impressed by him when i watched a couple of '60s TML games.), but also slow.

schneider i think is not far above a defensive liability.

::

harper:

harper is certainly not an ideal 1st pairing d-man. but i think he is OK here, b/c he's paired with park, who will be running the offense.

harper was a key member of the late '60s early/'70s habs teams,but he was also #1 d-man on some not great teams.

'74 LAK: +25
'75 LAK: +38
'78 DRW: +19

here's a really funny story from the '71 finals about harper from mcphee:

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2907575&postcount=26

the very next post in the thread corroborates GBC's statement than bobby hull thought harper was difficult to beat.

Bobby Hull has said Harper is the d-man who played him toughest and the Montreal forwards knew from practice that Terry was the best skater going backwards on the entire team, if not the league. You could not get around him.

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=2909511&postcount=27
 
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