At the Flyers really that good with their draft picks?

[Lord Defect]

Since Giroux in 2006, the flyers have drafted JVR in 2007, Coots/Cousins in 2011, and Laughton in 2012, are the Flyers actually any good at drafting in the first two rounds let alone the late rounds?
Are our scouts actually any good? Before G, in 2003 we drafted Richards and Carter in the first round.
Until recently outside the first round we have had zero success in our drafting.
I know Holmgren traded off a ton of picks but shouldn't we have had some success outside the first round before Ghost in 2012?

Click to read more...

 

[Striiker]

Are they good at drafting in the first round?

... Yes, obviously.

As for the later rounds, it's tough to find steals when you both trade picks and go for low potential trash like Rinaldo. Lately they've done a fantastic job in the later rounds. Even if they don't pan out, simply looking like solid prospects for this long after getting drafted is a massive improvement. And it's hard to imagine that none of them work out. Fazleev, Leier, Lindblom, etc all look very promising.

 

[Vlad*]

drafting Tyrell Goulbourne and admitting they did it just because he's tough like Rinaldo is one of the lowest moments in franchise history

 

[Appleyard]

Pretty much the best in the NHL in the first round statistically... you can take it back to the early 90's and the Flyers are still comfortably the best 1st round drafting team over a ~20+ year span.

 

[Lord Defect]

Pretty much the best in the NHL in the first round statistically... you can take it back to the early 90's and the Flyers are still comfortably the best 1st round drafting team over a ~20+ year span.

But there are third + round steals out there. Looking back it seems like until recently we were only good in the first.
Have they changed scouts or anything?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Pretty much the best in the NHL in the first round statistically... you can take it back to the early 90's and the Flyers are still comfortably the best 1st round drafting team over a ~20+ year span.

What makes that even more amazing is that it will include some of the massive flops we had in there. I mean MASSIVE flops. To still be top, and without the black magic and/or blatant tanking that allowed the Oilers and Penguins to pick first repeatedly, is pretty impressive.

 

[McNasty]

Maroon and Wellwood are two names that come to mind.

 

[FLYguy3911]

The odds of finding an NHL regular fall off a cliff outside of the first round so if you trade away picks in those rounds it becomes increasingly harder to hit on those players.

In 2012 they hit a homerun with Gostisbehere. Stolarz is a pretty good goalie. Leier should be an NHLer in some capacity. 2013 doesn't look great outside of Morin. Every guy from that 2014 class should be signed which is rare. Sanheim and Lindblom were great picks. Aube-Kubel is a really solid pick. Fazleev is really good value. Friedman is an underrated player too. The 2015 class is off to a great start with the exception of the injuries to Tomek and Dove-McFalls.

 

[Appleyard]

But there are third + round steals out there. Looking back it seems like until recently we were only good in the first.
Have they changed scouts or anything?

A few since Hextall joined the organisation again.

New Euro amateur scouts (Nordic countries, both I believe mainly scout both Sweden & Finland, they changed all of our Nordic amateur scouting team I believe during ~2012-13 season and then 'officially' hired them after the draft... Flyers had no real success in that region since Inge Hammarström (excellent, proven scout) left in 2008 to join the Canucks):

Joakim Grundberg (officially employed from summer 2013, but was 'freelancing' for the Flyers beforehand and was almost certainly responsible for Hagg. (he was working for Modo before the Flyers!)

Antero Niittymaki (officially employed from 2013, but was ofc liaising with Flyers beforehand.)

New North American amateur scouts:

Rick Pracey (hired in 2014)... was Colorado's director of scouting, had a great record with the Av's as a scout, very, very highly regarded. Generally an Eastern Canada guy, OHL mainly.

Nick Pryor (hired in 2013, but was already effectively scouting for them before), responsible for USHL scouting.




The amateur scouting team was also kind of turned over in the late 2000's (besides a few key guys with good records.) with Greig, Hoodikoff, Hearty, McIlhargey added.


I believe the only 'amateur' (draft guys generally) scouts we have left from before ~2007 are Simon Nolet (QMJHL), Dennis Paterson (OHL) & Vaclav Slansky (Eastern Europe). They let several go or moved them into different roles in organisation.

 

[achdumeingute]

But there are third + round steals out there. Looking back it seems like until recently we were only good in the first.
Have they changed scouts or anything?

nobody routinely hits in round 3+. I wouldn't worry about it.

 

[BillDineen]

Others include Ghost, Sharpe, Seidenberg. Probability of hitting big outside the first round is low and is lower when you draft guys like Goul, Mathers and Klotz.

Lindblom and Fazleev have potential.

 

[PALE PWNR]

In the Paul Holmgren era, we did not have many picks to play with, so its extremely difficult to judge them for that time. And prior to that scouting/drafting etc was way different.

The 2003 draft we were pretty good in the 3rd round, Colin Fraser, Ryan Potulny, Alexandre Picard, and Stefan Ruzicka, were 4 of our 5 picks in the 3rd that year, all played a significant amount of time in the NHL before having decent careers elsewhere. In 2001, they found Sharp, Jussi Timonen, and Dennis Seidenberg beyond the 1st round. 2000 they picked Justin Williams with the 28th pick and found Roman Cechmanek in the 6th round. Nittymaki was another 6th round pick, Fedoruk was a 7th and had almost 600 games in the NHL. Vinny Prospal was a 3rd in 93 and Niinimaa was picked a round ahead of him. 91 had 4 NHLers play over 100 NHL games 2 over 700, 1 was Forsberg the other Yushkevich in the 6th. The year prior we picked Mike Ricci in the 1st, Renberg in the 2nd, Therien in the 3rd, Kordic in the 5th, Butsayev in the 6th, and Soderstrom in the 11th, all had over 100 games.

Beyond the 1st round its a crap shoot, and there is definitely a significant difference 1 draft year to another in terms of talent. There are a myriad of issues you could complain about with this team. Drafting might be the #1 thing you cannot complain about.

 

[Appleyard]

Looking at it from a timeline perspective it does really seem like they have, on merit and record, adjusted the scouting staff accordingly:

Hextall & Chris Pryor (Director of scouting since 2006) will pretty much be 'in charge' of the draft and have last say etc.

OHL & QMJHL

Patterson & Nolet are the longest tenured draft guys. They are the OHL & QMJHL (though cover the east) scouts. Flyers have been very, very good at drafting from these areas for 25 years.

Todd Hearty was hired in 2008 for QMJHL (and eastern) scouting, and have continued to draft well from such areas.

Andre Beaulieu had been with the team since 2008, was with the Rags beforehand... but retired in 2014.

Flyers hired Rick Pracey, a guy with an excellent record in Colorado, to round out the 'eastern Canada' team.

WHL

John Chapman was the main WHL guy I believe from the mid-90's to late 2000's (took over from Jerry Melnyk seemingly)... the WHL draft record in that time lagged behind eastern Canada. The WHL/amateur Western scouting team was seemingly gutted in the late 2000's/early 10's and rebuilt.

Mark Greig seemingly took over as main WHL guy in around ~2009.

Jack McIlhargey also scouts the West, he has done since 2011.

Europe

Slansky is also there as long tenured. Since early 90's as Euro scout, used to be all of Europe, now seemingly just Eastern. He was Hammarström's 'assistant' in effect. The Flyers had great success from early 90's until mid 00's in europe, especially Nordic countries and Czech/Central Europe. The record is not as good since mid 00's and Hammarström leaving for Vancouver... but seems like he was key in a lot of the great picks in the 90's and 00's. (as well as some 'none picks' they would like to 'do over' one we know being Havlat...)

Flyers were lights out in Europe (especially Nordic and Central) for ~15 years with Hammarström & Slansky... when Hammarström left Flyers (he fell out with them over their drafting and development of Euro players) took on Matti Kautto in the Nordic region as a primarily amateur scout. From ~2008 to 2012-2013 the record was pretty poor there.

Ken Hoodikoff was hired in 2009 after having a good record with Minny in Europe... he was primarily responsible for Bobrovsky being signed.

Evgeny Zimin, who had been with the Flyers since 1992, left in 2012-13, and Kautto left in 2012-2013 too.

They were effectively replaced with Grundberg & Niittymaki.

College/USHL/NAHL

Wade Clarke was hired in 2007 as a USHL scout. He moved to being college scout in ~2013. Now head college guy.

Ross Fitzpatrick was lead college scout from 2007-2015, but has been moved to pro scouting role now.

Nick Pryor is the USHL/NAHL scout now. He was brought in in 2013.

Goalies

Neil Little was the goalie scout from 2009-2015. He was let go after draft... but agreement he would leave was known well before.

Flyers now don't seemingly have a specialist goalie scout... I believe Dillabaugh & Robinson will have some scouting duties though in addition to coaching.



Though in addition to this the 'pro' scouts like Sinisalo, Al Hill etc will chime in... I know Sinisalo is at the WJC watching the tourney with Pryor and Hextall.


Though not entirely sure all this is 100% correct, but it is as close a summary as I can put together... if anyone knows any-more or if things are incorrect feel free to chime in!

 

[Lord Defect]

Looking at it from a timeline perspective it does really seem like they have, on merit and record, adjusted the scouting staff accordingly:

Hextall & Chris Pryor (Director of scouting since 2006) will pretty much be 'in charge' of the draft and have last say etc.

OHL & QMJHL

Patterson & Nolet are the longest tenured draft guys. They are the OHL & QMJHL (though cover the east) scouts. Flyers have been very, very good at drafting from these areas for 25 years.

Todd Hearty was hired in 2008 for QMJHL (and eastern) scouting, and have continued to draft well from such areas.

Andre Beaulieu had been with the team since 2008, was with the Rags beforehand... but retired in 2014.

Flyers hired Rick Pracey, a guy with an excellent record in Colorado, to round out the 'eastern Canada' team.

WHL

John Chapman was the main WHL guy I believe from the mid-90's to late 2000's (took over from Jerry Melnyk seemingly)... the WHL draft record in that time lagged behind eastern Canada. The WHL/amateur Western scouting team was seemingly gutted in the late 2000's/early 10's and rebuilt.

Mark Greig seemingly took over as main WHL guy in around ~2009.

Jack McIlhargey also scouts the West, he has done since 2011.

Europe

Slansky is also there as long tenured. Since early 90's as Euro scout, used to be all of Europe, now seemingly just Eastern. He was Hammarström's 'assistant' in effect. The Flyers had great success from early 90's until mid 00's in europe, especially Nordic countries and Czech/Central Europe. The record is not as good since mid 00's and Hammarström leaving for Vancouver... but seems like he was key in a lot of the great picks in the 90's and 00's. (as well as some 'none picks' they would like to 'do over' one we know being Havlat...)

Flyers were lights out in Europe (especially Nordic and Central) for ~15 years with Hammarström & Slansky... when Hammarström left Flyers (he fell out with them over their drafting and development of Euro players) took on Matti Kautto in the Nordic region as a primarily amateur scout. From ~2008 to 2012-2013 the record was pretty poor there.

Ken Hoodikoff was hired in 2009 after having a good record with Minny in Europe... he was primarily responsible for Bobrovsky being signed.

Evgeny Zimin, who had been with the Flyers since 1992, left in 2012-13, and Kautto left in 2012-2013 too.

They were effectively replaced with Grundberg & Niittymaki.

College/USHL/NAHL

Wade Clarke was hired in 2007 as a USHL scout. He moved to being college scout in ~2013. Now head college guy.

Ross Fitzpatrick was lead college scout from 2007-2015, but has been moved to pro scouting role now.

Nick Pryor is the USHL/NAHL scout now. He was brought in in 2013.

Goalies

Neil Little was the goalie scout from 2009-2015. He was let go after draft... but agreement he would leave was known well before.

Flyers now don't seemingly have a specialist goalie scout... I believe Dillabaugh & Robinson will have some scouting duties though in addition to coaching.



Though in addition to this the 'pro' scouts like Sinisalo, Al Hill etc will chime in... I know Sinisalo is at the WJC watching the tourney with Pryor and Hextall.


Though not entirely sure all this is 100% correct, but it is as close a summary as I can put together... if anyone knows any-more or if things are incorrect feel free to chime in!

Thanks Apple

 

[deadhead]

The scouting definitely has ticked up in quality the last few years.
The difference with Hextall is he values draft picks, not just obtaining and retaining them, but drafting for upside (since the odds are against you in any case, go for ceiling players, since floors are relatively low).

The first rd picks are almost always solid:
Couts (8), Laughton (20), Morin (11), Sanheim (17), Provorov (7), Konecny (24).
The change has been 3rd to 6th rds (7th rd is almost always an afterthought)

I'd make the case that the weakest picks last year were Dove-FcFalls and Vorobyov, both 4th line higher floor types drafted last year - but that was after they had 2 1st rd picks and two goalies.
Kase, Marody and Fedotov were all high ceiling, late round picks

in 2014 they seemed to have hit a grand slam, making solid picks in every round but the 7th, AK (48), Friedman (86), Lindblom (138), Fazleev (168)

Before that the record is a bit more shaky:
2013: Hagg (41) may have been an overdraft, Goul (72) similar to what they took in the 4th rd in 2015, Amorosa (132) meh but Madsen (162) upside gamble looks like it might pay off
2012: Stolarz (45), Ghost (78) great picks, Larsson (111), Wilcox (141) meh
2011: Cousins (68) but Sullentrop (116), Noebels (118), Placek (176)
2010: Chaput (89), McGinn (119), Parks (149), Luuko (179)
2009: Morrison (81), Bertilsson (87),

As the drafting in the middle round improves, the value of those picks to the Flyers becomes much higher, and Hextall has recognized that, and that those picks are often under valued by teams that don't draft well.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I wouldn't label Vorobyov a 4th liner just yet. He's got pretty good skill.

 

[Tripod]

The key for us is that we don't have any misses in the 1st round. That is so important.

People talk about Edmonton's rebuild...but look at 2007, the year before Eberle was taken.

Gagner at #6
Plante at #15
Nash at #21

Could of had Voracek, MaxP, etc..

Philly is lucky that we rarely miss on our 1st rounders and even have drafted some impact guys in the 20's.

But after that, our drafting has been bad until recently. Not surprising since we alsawys traded away 2nd and 3rd rounders then drafted guys with 4th line upside.

But we have gotten better and are drafting more skill than before . It will pay off.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Early returns from the last 2 scouting seasons are pretty good especially when you factor in free agent signings like Myers and Martel (Bardreau could be a role player, Marti too if he can ever stay on the ice).

 

[Curufinwe]

If this injury Marti has is to the same shoulder he had surgery on in the summer, I'd be worried. But the Phantoms give out less injury information than the Flyers do.

 

[CodyTheHuman]

The scouting definitely has ticked up in quality the last few years.
The difference with Hextall is he values draft picks, not just obtaining and retaining them, but drafting for upside (since the odds are against you in any case, go for ceiling players, since floors are relatively low).

The first rd picks are almost always solid:
Couts (8), Laughton (20), Morin (11), Sanheim (17), Provorov (7), Konecny (24).
The change has been 3rd to 6th rds (7th rd is almost always an afterthought)

I'd make the case that the weakest picks last year were Dove-FcFalls and Vorobyov, both 4th line higher floor types drafted last year - but that was after they had 2 1st rd picks and two goalies.
Kase, Marody and Fedotov were all high ceiling, late round picks

in 2014 they seemed to have hit a grand slam, making solid picks in every round but the 7th, AK (48), Friedman (86), Lindblom (138), Fazleev (168)

Before that the record is a bit more shaky:
2013: Hagg (41) may have been an overdraft, Goul (72) similar to what they took in the 4th rd in 2015, Amorosa (132) meh but Madsen (162) upside gamble looks like it might pay off
2012: Stolarz (45), Ghost (78) great picks, Larsson (111), Wilcox (141) meh
2011: Cousins (68) but Sullentrop (116), Noebels (118), Placek (176)
2010: Chaput (89), McGinn (119), Parks (149), Luuko (179)
2009: Morrison (81), Bertilsson (87),

As the drafting in the middle round improves, the value of those picks to the Flyers becomes much higher, and Hextall has recognized that, and that those picks are often under valued by teams that don't draft well.

If I remember correctly, they see Vorobyov as having 2C upside.

 

[Curufinwe]

Marti is apparently going to play this weekend.

 

[Rebels57]

All that matters is if Hextall is good at drafting, since he is our current GM.

I never judge the current regime of any sports organization based on the performance of the previous regime. I wouldn't want my employer to judge me based off of who held my position prior to me either.

Since it is so early into Hextall's tenure, we can't definitely say if he is good or not because of none of his picks have had the chance to proven themselves yet. But the fact that we are tied for the most prospects representing us in the WJC, and all SEVEN of them have been drafted by Hextall in just 2 years time, is a GREAT sign.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

If this injury Marti has is to the same shoulder he had surgery on in the summer, I'd be worried. But the Phantoms give out less injury information than the Flyers do.

It's not apparently.

 

[Tripod]

All that matters is if Hextall is good at drafting, since he is our current GM.

I never judge the current regime of any sports organization based on the performance of the previous regime. I wouldn't want my employer to judge me based off of who held my position prior to me either.

Since it is so early into Hextall's tenure, we can't definitely say if he is good or not because of none of his picks have had the chance to proven themselves yet. But the fact that we are tied for the most prospects representing us in the WJC, and all SEVEN of them have been drafted by Hextall in just 2 years time, is a GREAT sign.

In fairness, 5 of the 7 guys Holmgren drafted in 2012 made the WJC and 2 of 6 from 2013.

Our drafting as a whole has gotten better over the last few years.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

In fairness, 5 of the 7 guys Holmgren drafted in 2012 made the WJC and 2 of 6 from 2013.

Our drafting as a whole has gotten better over the last few years.

Well it is essentially the same scouting staff in place. At the end of the day they are the ones doing the bulk of the work based off guild lines set forth by the GM.

I still think the issue was the lack of picks over the years more so than anything else. They pretty much played the percentages over the years (hit on the most likely ones & missed on a lot of the least likely ones).