Around the NHL 2023-2024

[BadgersandBlues]

I agree, it does make it tough, but Winnipeg led in 4 of the 5 games and got it to tied in the other. And yeah, Colorado is a really good team. Winnipeg was a really good team, too. Had swept Colorado in the season series, including a 7-0 undressing back on the 13th in Colorado. Got outshot in all 3 of those games, too.

No, I don't necessarily expect him to win all 4 of those games when the team scores 2, 2, 1 and 3, but when you give up 2 in 18 seconds, 3 in 5:37, 3 in 6:00, your team stakes you to an early lead and you give it up a couple minutes later, ... you're supposedly an elite goalie, at some point you have to step up and make saves to keep your team in the game. When you don't, you increase the pressure on everyone in front of you because they start thinking we can't give up chances or they'll end up in the back of the net and that inevitably leads to even more pressure because trying to play perfect leads to more mistakes.

Yes, we call this phenomenon the Jake Allen corollary in these parts.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I know I'm a broken record about goalie workload, but I'm not remotely surprised that a guy consistently asked to play 60+ games a year doesn't look fully dialed in by the time playoffs roll around.

Brossoit was excellent this year and somehow the Jets decided to still give Helly 60 starts, which was 3rd most in the league. Helly started 11 of their last 15 down the stretch and 5 of the final 7 games, so they barely even dialed the workload back down the stretch in order to get rested for the postseason. I understand riding your elite goalie into the ground when you don't have another option, but this is a team that had a .927 backup who went 15-5-2.

I think there is very much a mental aspect to Helly's struggles in the playoffs beyond fatigue, but mental issues never get easier to handle when your body is also a step behind it's peak physical condition.

This brings up a fair (IMO) question: in today's NHL, should you just run a goalie out for every start of the playoffs?

I've thought for a while there are advantages to running a tandem in the postseason, especially if you have two goalies with styles that are different enough to keep the opposition off-balance. But, I'd also held on to "... but absent that, if you've got a #1 goalie, you've gotta ride him until he breaks." I think I'm willing to change that view. If one is of the mindset that "I don't want to run a guy out for 60 games in the regular season, that will start to wear on him both physically and mentally" it seems a bit inconsistent to follow that with "... but I'm OK running him out there for 2 months straight, potentially playing 22-27 playoff games where the stakes are higher and he never gets a break unless it's an utter blowout or I'm forced to pull him."

I'm not saying give your backup some nearly 50/50 split, I'm not even saying split it 65/35 or 75/25, but I think if you don't trust your backup in the playoffs, you probably weren't trusting him a lot in the regular season and you have a different problem. Unless you're in a do-or-die situation where you look at your #1 and say "you're the guy I trust to come through" you find spots to get the backup in, trust he can do the job for a night, and spell your main guy so he's more ready when you really need him.

 

[The Note]

I agree, it does make it tough, but Winnipeg led in 4 of the 5 games and got it to tied in the other. And yeah, Colorado is a really good team. Winnipeg was a really good team, too. Had swept Colorado in the season series, including a 7-0 undressing back on the 13th in Colorado. Got outshot in all 3 of those games, too.

No, I don't necessarily expect him to win all 4 of those games when the team scores 2, 2, 1 and 3, but when you give up 2 in 18 seconds, 3 in 5:37, 3 in 6:00, your team stakes you to an early lead and you give it up a couple minutes later, ... you're supposedly an elite goalie, at some point you have to step up and make saves to keep your team in the game. When you don't, you increase the pressure on everyone in front of you because they start thinking we can't give up chances or they'll end up in the back of the net and that inevitably leads to even more pressure because trying to play perfect leads to more mistakes.

I agree that when you’ve got a Vezina winner in net you’re hoping for a series of saves where he keeps you in it or even steals a game. Again, I certainly think Hellebuyck wears some of the loss. I just think that if Hellebuyck is going to get pilloried for the Jets crashing and burning (no pun intended) it’s letting the rest of the team off the hook.

To my eye it wasn’t just the Jets getting outshot but badly outplayed for large portions of the series. I decided to look it up, and Natural Stattrick has the Jets at an xGF% per 60 of 41.86 at 5 on 5. For reference, the Sharks put up a 41.81 for the season. They weren’t just losing the possession battle slightly they were getting caved in while the Avs carried the play to a large degree. Could some of that be due to the Jets players worried about Hellebuyck? Maybe, I guess. I think what it boils down to is one team is a recent Stanley Cup champ with high end talent and the Jets are a solid, deep team that couldn’t match the Avs level aside from when Georgiev was giving up every other shot he faced. Hellebuyck not standing on his head exacerbated the issue, but I have a hard time laying this all, or even mostly, at Hellebuyck’s feet.

 

[Xerloris]

I agree that when you’ve got a Vezina winner in net you’re hoping for a series of saves where he keeps you in it or even steals a game. Again, I certainly think Hellebuyck wears some of the loss. I just think that if Hellebuyck is going to get pilloried for the Jets crashing and burning (no pun intended) it’s letting the rest of the team off the hook.

To my eye it wasn’t just the Jets getting outshot but badly outplayed for large portions of the series. I decided to look it up, and Natural Stattrick has the Jets at an xGF% per 60 of 41.86 at 5 on 5. For reference, the Sharks put up a 41.81 for the season. They weren’t just losing the possession battle slightly they were getting caved in while the Avs carried the play to a large degree. Could some of that be due to the Jets players worried about Hellebuyck? Maybe, I guess. I think what it boils down to is one team is a recent Stanley Cup champ with high end talent and the Jets are a solid, deep team that couldn’t match the Avs level aside from when Georgiev was giving up every other shot he faced. Hellebuyck not standing on his head exacerbated the issue, but I have a hard time laying this all, or even mostly, at Hellebuyck’s feet.

It's not all being laid at his feet but his performance was especially bad for a guy making 8.5 mill a year to make saves. I mean remember when people thought 6 was to much for Binnington? At least Binny got paid for a cup, Helle got paid for nothing.

 

[Brian39]

This brings up a fair (IMO) question: in today's NHL, should you just run a goalie out for every start of the playoffs?

I've thought for a while there are advantages to running a tandem in the postseason, especially if you have two goalies with styles that are different enough to keep the opposition off-balance. But, I'd also held on to "... but absent that, if you've got a #1 goalie, you've gotta ride him until he breaks." I think I'm willing to change that view. If one is of the mindset that "I don't want to run a guy out for 60 games in the regular season, that will start to wear on him both physically and mentally" it seems a bit inconsistent to follow that with "... but I'm OK running him out there for 2 months straight, potentially playing 22-27 playoff games where the stakes are higher and he never gets a break unless it's an utter blowout or I'm forced to pull him."

I'm not saying give your backup some nearly 50/50 split, I'm not even saying split it 65/35 or 75/25, but I think if you don't trust your backup in the playoffs, you probably weren't trusting him a lot in the regular season and you have a different problem. Unless you're in a do-or-die situation where you look at your #1 and say "you're the guy I trust to come through" you find spots to get the backup in, trust he can do the job for a night, and spell your main guy so he's more ready when you really need him.

I think that for teams with a clearly defined #1, every playoff game is simply too important to not play the starter every night unless/until things go sideways. Which is why making sure they are as rested as possible entering game 1 is so important.

I think that a true starting goalie can give you 2 months of starting every game in the playoffs, especially if you can win one round fairly quickly and get them a 3-5 day break at some point in the first 3 rounds. The schedule in the Final is always super spread out, so it is realistically 3 rounds of consistent game-day off-game-day off with the occasional extra day off thrown in there. That is a grind for sure, but it is a for a short enough timeline that a genuinely starting-caliber guy should be able to manage if they aren't starting the grind already behind the fatigue 8 ball.

All that said, I do think that teams are (correctly) going to the backup (or 1B) quicker than they used to in the past and I think that this is a good strategy. I think the stigma around sitting the starter for a couple games and/or running the hot hand is less severe than it used to be. The Hawks don't win in 2015 without putting in Darling to let Crawford get his head straight.

Adin Hill only got 11 of the 16 wins for Vegas last year.

Kuemper only got 10 of the 16 wins for Colorado in 2022.

Fleury and Murray split the wins 9-7 for the Pens in 2017.

Injuries were the root cause of those last 3 examples, but there is growing proof of concept to the notion that you can win with a hot hand and don't need to trot out 1 guy at all costs. But I'm not at the point where I think that teams with a defined #1 should be giving their guy games off just for workload purposes. I think the much better strategy is to properly manage workload in the regular season to ensure that your guy enters game 1 of the playoffs with his battery as close to 100% as possible.

Lets say we make the playoffs next year and the goalies play at about the levels they each did this yea., I'm not going to Hofer while Binner is playing well just to keep Binner fresh. Instead, I'm making sure that Hofer starts 30-35 games in the regular season so that Binner is fresh for game 1 of the playoffs. I'd be ready to go to Hofer if Binner loses himself in the middle of a series, but I'm not keeping that split up in the playoffs when every game is huge.

A team that has 2 quality goalies running as a true tandem all year? I'm in favor of keeping the tandem going in the playoffs. I'd have gotten Ullmark into a 2nd game by now if I were coaching the Bruins.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

In case anyone needs a reminder:

When they put the statue of him in front of the arena, this should be the pose.

 

[ezcreepin]

I know I'm a broken record about goalie workload, but I'm not remotely surprised that a guy consistently asked to play 60+ games a year doesn't look fully dialed in by the time playoffs roll around.

Brossoit was excellent this year and somehow the Jets decided to still give Helly 60 starts, which was 3rd most in the league. Helly started 11 of their last 15 down the stretch and 5 of the final 7 games, so they barely even dialed the workload back down the stretch in order to get rested for the postseason. I understand riding your elite goalie into the ground when you don't have another option, but this is a team that had a .927 backup who went 15-5-2.

I think there is very much a mental aspect to Helly's struggles in the playoffs beyond fatigue, but mental issues never get easier to handle when your body is also a step behind it's peak physical condition.

All that said, Helly wasn't at his best (or even close to it) in these playoffs, but I think his numbers are much uglier than his actual play was. The Avs thoroughly outplayed the Jets and had way too many grade A chances coming off the blade of elite players with a knack for finishing grade A chances at a high rate. You need a good chunk better from your $8.5M guy in net, but his play wasn't at the top of my list of problems for the Jets. I think that the gaudy goal totals for Colorado is much more reflective of the Avs blowing the doors of the Jets team than Helly specifically.

The Avs averaged 37 shots per game in this series. That's 3.2 shots per game more than the 2nd-best Hurricanes who completely dismantled the Isles AND had a game go to double OT to help boost the shot total. It was a shooting gallery out there.

And down the stretch, they were never in any trouble to not make the playoffs. Why they didn't rest Hellebuyck I'll never understand. EVEN IF you have a goalie who can play 60-65 games in this current format of the sport, There are almost none who can do it over the course of the year and into the playoffs. Vasi might be the only one who can play an insane amount of games and remain stone cold in the postseason. Shesterkin didn't play to the level he did in the regular season when he won the Vezina. Maybe Saros or Sorokin but even they struggle a bit.

This brings up a fair (IMO) question: in today's NHL, should you just run a goalie out for every start of the playoffs?

I've thought for a while there are advantages to running a tandem in the postseason, especially if you have two goalies with styles that are different enough to keep the opposition off-balance. But, I'd also held on to "... but absent that, if you've got a #1 goalie, you've gotta ride him until he breaks." I think I'm willing to change that view. If one is of the mindset that "I don't want to run a guy out for 60 games in the regular season, that will start to wear on him both physically and mentally" it seems a bit inconsistent to follow that with "... but I'm OK running him out there for 2 months straight, potentially playing 22-27 playoff games where the stakes are higher and he never gets a break unless it's an utter blowout or I'm forced to pull him."

I'm not saying give your backup some nearly 50/50 split, I'm not even saying split it 65/35 or 75/25, but I think if you don't trust your backup in the playoffs, you probably weren't trusting him a lot in the regular season and you have a different problem. Unless you're in a do-or-die situation where you look at your #1 and say "you're the guy I trust to come through" you find spots to get the backup in, trust he can do the job for a night, and spell your main guy so he's more ready when you really need him.

At this point, I think using a tandem to win a Stanley Cup might happen more frequently. The goalies are really good nowadays and they aren't playing nearly as much as they used to, so if you can get into a situation that the Isles have where both of their goalies are capable, then I could easily see a team like that win multiple cups. Strategically, I think you'll probably have to play a more sound defensive game a la Trotz hockey instead of run and gun like Toronto or Florida (yes I know they were great this year but they are run and gun).

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

The Rangers made it to the Conference Final in 2022 when Shesterkin won the Vezina. Vegas made it to the semifinals in 2021 when Fleury won the Vezina. So that's 2 trips to the Conference Final and zero trips to the Final for the Vezina winner in the last decade.

Over the same timeframe, the winner of the Hart trophy has zero trips to the Conference Final and substantially more 1st round losses. Vezina winners have been having a much higher rate of success getting their team to round 2 and round 3 than Hart winners.

My bad, had looked at the wrong Rangers year for Shesterkin and misread Fleury’s year as conference semifinal forgetting it was the weird year of the Canadian division.

Good lord, those Hart numbers are awful.

 

[Brian39]

Good lord, those Hart numbers are awful.

Purely going by gut, it makes some sense to me.

Take 2 exactly equal generational talents and put them on different teams. One gets 23 minutes a night carrying the offense of a fast and reckless team with a crap bottom 6 while the other gets 20 minutes a night for a team that focuses on defense first and has a high-end bottom 6. Shouldn't be hard to predict that the first one will outproduce the other to win the Hart while the second one has a better chance of playing in June.

There are obviously exceptions, but by and large a guy from a team with great depth and/or a defense-first commitment is less likely to have the massive offensive success needed to win the Hart even though those things both increase their chances of winning playoff games.

 

[Xerloris]

Time to get hyped??

 

[MissouriMook]

The smoke around the Canes pulling a contract offer for RBA is all the more confusing given the timing and the reports that they low-balled him the last time around.

 

[Stealth JD]

The smoke around the Canes pulling a contract offer for RBA is all the more confusing given the timing and the reports that they low-balled him the last time around.

Maybe they pulled it to replace it with an even bigger offer!!

 

[stl76]

And down the stretch, they were never in any trouble to not make the playoffs. Why they didn't rest Hellebuyck I'll never understand.

Probably a mix of the player wanting to play and contending for a Vezina trophy win. Plus Bowness seems like an old school coach.

Not saying it was the right decision or anything…but I can see how it might’ve happened

 

[ezcreepin]

Probably a mix of the player wanting to play and contending for a Vezina trophy win. Plus Bowness seems like an old school coach.

Not saying it was the right decision or anything…but I can see how it might’ve happened

I can understand how it happens, but the thought process is just wrong with how the game is now. Even the Blues playing Binnington 55+ games is stupid. At maximum, he should play 50 games or so, but we were close to a playoff spot, so that's likely the logic behind playing him that frequently.

 

[Stealth JD]

Great pass from Stankoven to get the Stars back to even after a Mark Stone early power-play goal.

 

[TheDizee]

2 heavyweights going at it, refalanche might be playing a shell of a team next round