GDT: Around the League 2021-22 v11

[McDoused]

Let's go ducks!

 

[Cloned]

Welp.

 

[Anemia]

Does that Leaf have a glass jaw? Hall barely touched him.

 

[Oilhawks]

Stop worrying about the WC spot lol

 

[Mr Positive]

realistically, with Heiskanen back and the Stars' easy schedule, and games in hand, the odds of Dallas getting knocked out of a playoff spot weren't good anyway.

 

[Oilhawks]

It was probably always going to come down to the Oilers winning more than one of the Kings or the Golden Knights and grabbing a Pacific spot. The WC spot was just a bonus. Central teams taking up both spots seemed the most likely situation, it only seemed like an option when some of the teams in the race faltered a bit,

 

[Mez]

wow Vegas and LA have extremely easy schedules...not good. We gotta win 9 or 10 of our remaining games i think

 

[Mav3rick07]

wow Vegas and LA have extremely easy schedules...not good. We gotta win 9 or 10 of our remaining games i think

The Kings are without Doughty and Brown for the foreseeable future and Lehner got hurt again in practice today.

Yes they have softer schedules but I don't think it's a guarantee either team goes on a roll.

 

[yukoner88]

The Kings are without Doughty and Brown for the foreseeable future and Lehner got hurt again in practice today.

Yes they have softer schedules but I don't think it's a guarantee either team goes on a roll.

If Lehner would use a proper chest protector, instead of a highway billboard sign, he wouldnt have suffered that lower body injury

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

So I know this isn't new, but this is the first time I noticed the time on the clock, lol so brutal

 

[nafrelio]

I'm really uncomfortable with media and the boards here talking like playoffs are a foregone conclusion. We could easily miss the playoffs. Vegas is slumping but they will awaken soon. Like Mez said, LAK and VGN have much easier schedules than us. Vegas is only 3 points back. We need to win tonight badly to use our game in hand on them. 5 points up on a team like that isn't much when you compare the team's schedules over the next 15 games.

We might as well throw in the towel if we face COL in the first round. Facing LA is doable though. Hopefully the standings stay the same and we face LAK in the first round.

 

[booyakasha]

Leafs fans losing it LOL
What a whiney bunch...comparing Halls unfortunate tug to Matthews two handed cross check to Dahlins face.
Delusional fan base

 

[trick91]

I'm really uncomfortable with media and the boards here talking like playoffs are a foregone conclusion. We could easily miss the playoffs. Vegas is slumping but they will awaken soon. Like Mez said, LAK and VGN have much easier schedules than us. Vegas is only 3 points back. We need to win tonight badly to use our game in hand on them. 5 points up on a team like that isn't much when you compare the team's schedules over the next 15 games.

We might as well throw in the towel if we face COL in the first round. Facing LA is doable though. Hopefully the standings stay the same and we face LAK in the first round.

Agree, we got a much tougher schedule remaining than LA, or especially Vegas.

 

[iCanada]

I'm really uncomfortable with media and the boards here talking like playoffs are a foregone conclusion. We could easily miss the playoffs. Vegas is slumping but they will awaken soon. Like Mez said, LAK and VGN have much easier schedules than us. Vegas is only 3 points back. We need to win tonight badly to use our game in hand on them. 5 points up on a team like that isn't much when you compare the team's schedules over the next 15 games.

We might as well throw in the towel if we face COL in the first round. Facing LA is doable though. Hopefully the standings stay the same and we face LAK in the first round.

It is pretty much a given.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Us failing to make the playoffs after the last stretch of 10 games or so is monumentally unlikely.

Keep in mind this factors in strength of schedule and quality of play, derived from advanced stats.

 

[McCombo]

It is pretty much a given.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Us failing to make the playoffs after the last stretch of 10 games or so is monumentally unlikely.

Keep in mind this factors in strength of schedule and quality of play, derived from advanced stats.

Every model has their weaknesses, but some are clearly better than others. As a person who plays with my own model and frequently compare my numbers to public models, Moneypuck would be the one of the least I personally would trust. There are some twitter accounts that compare public models projection to betting market, if you would have invested your money with MPs projections you would have lost money. That is probably the best method to see how accurate models are.

The best model for at least two years in a row (could be longer) is The Athletics model. Their projections have been EV+ for couple of years. But in this case the projections are quite similar.

To make playoffs

Edmonton 89%
LA 80%
Vegas 38%
Vancouver 10%

 

[Lemonlimey]

We could do it maybe without even spending much more. If Smith goes to LTIR, and we go with Kuemper-Skinner, it might be maybe a million more (?). That assumes he would sign the Markstrom deal. That could be a bit risky with injuries, but the insurance there would be that if injuries become a major issue he himself could get on the LTIR.

The chance to get Kuemper was in the summer, but Arizona was asking for an overpay.

 

[iCanada]

Every model has their weaknesses, but some are clearly better than others. As a person who plays with my own model and frequently compare my numbers to public models, Moneypuck would be the one of the least I personally would trust. There are some twitter accounts that compare public models projection to betting market, if you would have invested your money with MPs projections you would have lost money. That is probably the best method to see how accurate models are.

The best model for at least two years in a row (could be longer) is The Athletics model. Their projections have been EV+ for couple of years. But in this case the projections are quite similar.

To make playoffs

Edmonton 89%
LA 80%
Vegas 38%
Vancouver 10%

Thing is at this stage of the game the model almost doesn't matter.

We have an over 80% chance of making it if every game is 5050.

Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 50/50 - Sports Club Stats

Edmonton Oilers playoff odds, and who you should root for today. (50/50)

www.sportsclubstats.com

Just not enough games for a team like Vegas to make up a large amount of points reliably.

 

[Mr Positive]

How the LTIR has played out with Vegas has pretty much guaranteed it was circumvention

They tried to trade Dadonov so that they could dress Stone. That didn't work, so they had less space, so with that they could activate Martinez?

So what if that Dadonov trade went through and Stone was activated? Doesnt that mean that Martinez would still have to be on LTIR right now? This is brazen

 

[iCanada]

How the LTIR has played out with Vegas has pretty much guaranteed it was circumvention

They tried to trade Dadonov so that they could dress Stone. That didn't work, so they had less space, so with that they could activate Martinez?

So what if that Dadonov trade went through and Stone was activated? Doesnt that mean that Martinez would still have to be on LTIR right now? This is brazen

No no no. God works in mysterious ways.

All I can say is that they'll all be healthy if Vegas makes the playoffs. Have faith.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Every model has their weaknesses, but some are clearly better than others. As a person who plays with my own model and frequently compare my numbers to public models, Moneypuck would be the one of the least I personally would trust. There are some twitter accounts that compare public models projection to betting market, if you would have invested your money with MPs projections you would have lost money. That is probably the best method to see how accurate models are.

The best model for at least two years in a row (could be longer) is The Athletics model. Their projections have been EV+ for couple of years. But in this case the projections are quite similar.

To make playoffs

Edmonton 89%
LA 80%
Vegas 38%
Vancouver 10%

Just a comment, but at this point with Doughty still out, Brown out, and a Kings rebuild team basically bereft of experience or longevity theres no way they're 80% at this point. Would bet against that at this point anytime. I would put LA/Vegas at about even odds of making playoffs at this point.

 

[joestevens29]

Winnipeg just took a huge blow with Connor and Schmidt going into covid protocol.

Leading scorer up front, as well Schmidt tied for lead on back end.

Somehow they have 10 games against the East late in the season. The only real game that can impact us is them playing LA Saturday. Other west games are against COL, CGY and Seattle.

 

[McCombo]

Just a comment, but at this point with Doughty still out, Brown out, and a Kings rebuild team basically bereft of experience or longevity theres no way they're 80% at this point. Would bet against that at this point anytime. I would put LA/Vegas at about even odds of making playoffs at this point.

I think everyone knows LA has a depleted blueline at the moment. That model takes injury timelines into consideration. You are just seeing the other side of the coin. If they would be battling against a healthy Vegas team the model would probably agree with you. But Vegas has much larger injury issues themselves.

Stone, Pacioretty, R.Smith are all key forwards. Lehner is a massive loss, rigth now even Brossoit is injured. You trust Logan Thompson & Jiri Patera tandem? And even if the Brossoit injury is short, Brossoit & Thompson is a lot most likely worse than Quick & Petersen.

4 point gap with 14 games remaining is also quite a lot. If LA loses to EDM & CGY wihtout getting a single point it dramatically changes things, but the games need to be played first.

 

[joestevens29]

I think everyone knows LA has a depleted blueline at the moment. That model takes injury timelines into consideration. You are just seeing the other side of the coin. If they would be battling against a healthy Vegas team the model would probably agree with you. But Vegas has much larger injury issues themselves.

Stone, Pacioretty, R.Smith are all key forwards. Lehner is a massive loss, rigth now even Brossoit is injured. You trust Logan Thompson & Jiri Patera tandem? And even if the Brossoit injury is short, Brossoit & Thompson is a lot most likely worse than Quick & Petersen.

4 point gap with 14 games remaining is also quite a lot. If LA loses to EDM & CGY wihtout getting a single point it dramatically changes things, but the games need to be played first.

The way Thompson is playing he could end up the starter over Brossoit, lol

 

[GrinningBuddha]

I was very confused for a moment.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

I think everyone knows LA has a depleted blueline at the moment. That model takes injury timelines into consideration. You are just seeing the other side of the coin. If they would be battling against a healthy Vegas team the model would probably agree with you. But Vegas has much larger injury issues themselves.

Stone, Pacioretty, R.Smith are all key forwards. Lehner is a massive loss, rigth now even Brossoit is injured. You trust Logan Thompson & Jiri Patera tandem? And even if the Brossoit injury is short, Brossoit & Thompson is a lot most likely worse than Quick & Petersen.

4 point gap with 14 games remaining is also quite a lot. If LA loses to EDM & CGY wihtout getting a single point it dramatically changes things, but the games need to be played first.

I thought I read somewhere Brossoit is on personal leave...either way, he's absent from the team.