Speculation: Armchair GM - Offseason Thread (Summer Edition)

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BB88

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In a vacuum an $8 million wing is fine. But when you have a $9.8 million wing and an $8.8 million wing (if the Laine center experiment doesn’t work), then you have a huge percentage of your cap tied up in wings. That is where you get yourself in trouble.

You really wouldn’t.

This is a league where top guys are getting paid 12-13M today and in few years 14-15M.
The top player for Columbus is making under 10M so it’s tough to say too much money would be tied into wings.

If Fantilli becomes the franchise 1C then you pay him ( they’ll have the money) and you don’t need a superstar 2C. Because you’d have franchise C at 1C position and mix of Laine/Gaudreau/Johnson to play with that 2C.
 

koteka

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You really wouldn’t.

This is a league where top guys are getting paid 12-13M today and in few years 14-15M.
The top player for Columbus is making under 10M so it’s tough to say too much money would be tied into wings.

If Fantilli becomes the franchise 1C then you pay him ( they’ll have the money) and you don’t need a superstar 2C. Because you’d have franchise C at 1C position and mix of Laine/Gaudreau/Johnson to play with that 2C.

I’d rather have a solid 2C than 3 great wings and mediocrity beyond Fantilli up the middle. Especially when we structure the defense around moving the puck more than stopping the other team.
 

BB88

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I’d rather have a solid 2C than 3 great wings and mediocrity beyond Fantilli up the middle. Especially when we structure the defense around moving the puck more than stopping the other team.

Who said anything about not having a solid 2C?

But if you’re not willing to pay 8M in the future for quality players you won’t have too many quality players on the roster.

& they’ll have lot of quality options for bottom6 C going forward so again not having a superstar 2C isn’t necessary if it means keeping more talent everywhere else
 

koteka

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Who said anything about not having a solid 2C?

But if you’re not willing to pay 8M in the future for quality players you won’t have too many quality players on the roster.

& they’ll have lot of quality options for bottom6 C going forward so again not having a superstar 2C isn’t necessary if it means keeping more talent everywhere else

I am just saying why is everyone in a rush to sign these guys. Let’s see how it plays out. I am not opposed to offering a guy like KJ $8 million, but I am not doing it today.

If you want to talk about contracts that we need to be thinking about, Danforth is the only UFA I think we keep. (Robinson, Roslovic, Sweezy, Guance, and Spencer Martin are the other UFAs). So, do we try to get a couple more years of Danforth now or see how it plays out. He is 30. He might take the security of 2 x $1 million now rather than seeing how the year plays out and deciding on testing free agency.

Then I would say Tex is the next contract to think about.
 

Double-Shift Lasse

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I am just saying why is everyone in a rush to sign these guys. Let’s see how it plays out. I am not opposed to offering a guy like KJ $8 million, but I am not doing it today.
I don't disagree in principle, but keep in mind that after we see how it plays out, we might not be talking about 8 mil per for KJ, allowing that he could earn a center spot and really excel.
 

CBJx614

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I don't disagree in principle, but keep in mind that after we see how it plays out, we might not be talking about 8 mil per for KJ, allowing that he could earn a center spot and really excel.
Not to mention I'm sure their agents know the cap is about to rise and will push for more as well. If he has a 70pt+ season 8M might not get it done.
 
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squashmaple

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I’d rather have a solid 2C than 3 great wings and mediocrity beyond Fantilli up the middle. Especially when we structure the defense around moving the puck more than stopping the other team.
You're arguing a strawman here, to take a leaf out of Viqsi's logical fallacy handbook. No one said anything about not having a solid 2C. All BB88 said was "If Fantilli becomes the franchise 1C then you pay him ( they’ll have the money) and you don’t need a superstar 2C. Because you’d have franchise C at 1C position and mix of Laine/Gaudreau/Johnson to play with that 2C." You decided that must mean that any non-superstar 2C must be no more than mediocre, which is explicitly not what they said. There is an ocean of difference between "superstar 2C" and "mediocrity beyond Fantilli up the middle."
 
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koteka

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I don't disagree in principle, but keep in mind that after we see how it plays out, we might not be talking about 8 mil per for KJ, allowing that he could earn a center spot and really excel.

The risk of waiting a few months is he so awesome for the first half of the season is that he won’t sign an 8 x $8 million later in the season. Doesn’t seem too bad of a situation to me.

The risk of signing now is sophomore slump, injuries, bad fit for coach’s system, no chemistry with other top players, …
 

Double-Shift Lasse

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The risk of waiting a few months is he so awesome for the first half of the season is that he won’t sign an 8 x $8 million later in the season. Doesn’t seem too bad of a situation to me.

The risk of signing now is sophomore slump, injuries, bad fit for coach’s system, no chemistry with other top players, …
Yes of course there is risk reward. It just seemed like we were only discussing the "whew" part of that, not the "whoa" part.
 

majormajor

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The risk of waiting a few months is he so awesome for the first half of the season is that he won’t sign an 8 x $8 million later in the season. Doesn’t seem too bad of a situation to me.

The risk of signing now is sophomore slump, injuries, bad fit for coach’s system, no chemistry with other top players, …

I like this argument more. A sophomore slump could happen. I'd still err on the side of making the deal, but there's risk on both sides of it.

The center vs wing arguments are misguided in my opinion. KJ is going to be doing basically the same thing from either position, minus faceoffs.
 

koteka

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You're arguing a strawman here, to take a leaf out of Viqsi's logical fallacy handbook. No one said anything about not having a solid 2C. All BB88 said was "If Fantilli becomes the franchise 1C then you pay him ( they’ll have the money) and you don’t need a superstar 2C. Because you’d have franchise C at 1C position and mix of Laine/Gaudreau/Johnson to play with that 2C." You decided that must mean that any non-superstar 2C must be no more than mediocre, which is explicitly not what they said. There is an ocean of difference between "superstar 2C" and "mediocrity beyond Fantilli up the middle."

I am really only arguing that it is premature to have the KJ contract discussion. If we want to discuss contracts, the guy to be strategic about right now is Danforth because he is 30 and he hasn’t made a bunch of money in his career and is UFA after this season. He might go ahead and sign an extension now to lock in guaranteed money that will be cheaper than later in the season if he plays well and stays healthy.

CBJ fans - counting their chickens before they hatch since 2000.
 

Bobcat205

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You're arguing a strawman here, to take a leaf out of Viqsi's logical fallacy handbook. No one said anything about not having a solid 2C. All BB88 said was "If Fantilli becomes the franchise 1C then you pay him ( they’ll have the money) and you don’t need a superstar 2C. Because you’d have franchise C at 1C position and mix of Laine/Gaudreau/Johnson to play with that 2C." You decided that must mean that any non-superstar 2C must be no more than mediocre, which is explicitly not what they said. There is an ocean of difference between "superstar 2C" and "mediocrity beyond Fantilli up the middle."
i would like a copy of "Viqsi's Logical Fallacy Handbook", sounds like an interesting read
 

NotCommitted

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CBJ fans - counting their chickens before they hatch since 2000.

Nah it's the same everywhere and there's always "risk" relating to contracts, whether you lock the young player ASAP or wait for them to show more. KJ seems the kind of player I'd usually be inclined to lock up sooner rather than later, mainly because 1) he seems a smart player who's not been reliant on any single "elite" physical attribute or skill and 2) because he already put up 40 points with under 15min ice time in a very poor team. So I think the floor is probably high enough to make it worth it to try to get him locked up before his value goes up in the hopes he reaches his potential or at least close enough to it.

Sure, there is some risk involved but if it pays off, then you save nice chunk of cap money you can then use to give horrible contracts to useless players :laugh:
 

Marioesque

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Oct 7, 2021
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Marchenko is another one that will quite possibly explode in value over the next two seasons so extending him becomes a priority too. He might be starting with Laine and Gaudreau and play PP1, already has a 20+ goal season.
 

Halberdier

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May 14, 2016
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Nah it's the same everywhere and there's always "risk" relating to contracts, whether you lock the young player ASAP or wait for them to show more. KJ seems the kind of player I'd usually be inclined to lock up sooner rather than later, mainly because 1) he seems a smart player who's not been reliant on any single "elite" physical attribute or skill and 2) because he already put up 40 points with under 15min ice time in a very poor team. So I think the floor is probably high enough to make it worth it to try to get him locked up before his value goes up in the hopes he reaches his potential or at least close enough to it.

Sure, there is some risk involved but if it pays off, then you save nice chunk of cap money you can then use to give horrible contracts to useless players :laugh:

Agree on all points. Also if Kotekas example, Cole Sillinger was promising as 18-year-old, he was exactly promising for an 18-year-old. Nothing more, nothing less. And the skating for example was a visible problem on his game. There were major ifs and buts on his game, unlike KJs, and therefore locking Silly for eg. 8x8M or 8x7 after the rookie season would have been rather silly.
 

Farmboy Patty

Senior Hockey Analyst
Nov 2, 2017
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In a vacuum an $8 million wing is fine. But when you have a $9.8 million wing and an $8.8 million wing (if the Laine center experiment doesn’t work), then you have a huge percentage of your cap tied up in wings. That is where you get yourself in trouble.
And if if if… something works out great? Or even good? Those are the questions. You can can fear failure all your life if you want, but GM’s with their staff try to take all things in consideration without fear of losing, because the goal is to be calculatingly aggressive and win.
 

Farmboy Patty

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Nov 2, 2017
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I am just saying why is everyone in a rush to sign these guys. Let’s see how it plays out. I am not opposed to offering a guy like KJ $8 million, but I am not doing it today.

If you want to talk about contracts that we need to be thinking about, Danforth is the only UFA I think we keep. (Robinson, Roslovic, Sweezy, Guance, and Spencer Martin are the other UFAs). So, do we try to get a couple more years of Danforth now or see how it plays out. He is 30. He might take the security of 2 x $1 million now rather than seeing how the year plays out and deciding on testing free agency.

Then I would say Tex is the next contract to think about.
Who’s in a rush? I may have missed some postings, but AFAIK no one has said that KJ should be offered that extension today. This coming season is the time to do it if he keeps progressing and showing those good traits that he has this far in his career. In that case he’s a homerun for 8m for multiple years.
 

koteka

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Who’s in a rush? I may have missed some postings, but AFAIK no one has said that KJ should be offered that extension today. This coming season is the time to do it if he keeps progressing and showing those good traits that he has this far in his career. In that case he’s a homerun for 8m for multiple years.

So, you are saying if our really high draft pick who has already outplayed his draft position has another really good year then next summer we should try to give him a long contract? That is so obvious that it doesn’t need to be said. But it looks to me like people want to lock him up now or very soon. He is eligible to sign an extension today. I say let it play out. Sounds like you agree.
 

CBJx614

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So, you are saying if our really high draft pick who has already outplayed his draft position has another really good year then next summer we should try to give him a long contract? That is so obvious that it doesn’t need to be said. But it looks to me like people want to lock him up now or very soon. He is eligible to sign an extension today. I say let it play out. Sounds like you agree.
As others have mentioned it is very risky reward type move. I understand not wanting to be risk adverse but by locking up KJ and others now those savings of a couple million dollars in the future could be the difference of keeping or enticing high quality depth players. It could be a huge competitive advantage over the course of the next decade to get a few core or if we're REALLY lucky a franchise player on a long term team friendly deals like that.
 

majormajor

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So, you are saying if our really high draft pick who has already outplayed his draft position has another really good year then next summer we should try to give him a long contract? That is so obvious that it doesn’t need to be said. But it looks to me like people want to lock him up now or very soon. He is eligible to sign an extension today. I say let it play out. Sounds like you agree.

I would have a standing offer of $7m x 8 right now, yes. In a few months if he keeps progressing I would offer $8m x 8.
 

Farmboy Patty

Senior Hockey Analyst
Nov 2, 2017
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So, you are saying if our really high draft pick who has already outplayed his draft position has another really good year then next summer we should try to give him a long contract? That is so obvious that it doesn’t need to be said. But it looks to me like people want to lock him up now or very soon. He is eligible to sign an extension today. I say let it play out. Sounds like you agree.
How many have suggested that we lock him up now? What is very soon? What are we arguing about? The sooner we sign him, the better. Hopefully before the end of season.
 
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