Armchair GM...Lose one player

[JacketsDavid]

Unfortunately the problem is not just one player. It appears we have two major problems.
1. The guys we gave big contracts to (Elvis, ZW, JG, Laine, Severson) are pretty bad. These players were supposed to be the cornerstones of the rebuild.
2. The prospects aren't as good as many hoped. We've had 6 first round draft picks in the last three drafts. We have maybe one or two top of the line up players to show for it. While this sounds bad, it's actually about average. History shows at least 60% of first round picks fail live up to expectations.

So what do we do now? Double down on the rebuild or admit it was a failure and start over?

There is no good or obvious choice here. We have a last place team, a lame duck GM, and multiple unmovable contracts.

I've never been more pessimistic as a CBJ fan.

You're not going to buy your way out of a rebuild. First of all we don't have a ton of cap room and as importantly neither does many other teams - so it's not like we can sell off expensive peices to free up cash
Simply put the only way out of it is to move forward.

 

[majormajor]

Unfortunately the problem is not just one player. It appears we have two major problems.
1. The guys we gave big contracts to (Elvis, ZW, JG, Laine, Severson) are pretty bad. These players were supposed to be the cornerstones of the rebuild.
2. The prospects aren't as good as many hoped. We've had 6 first round draft picks in the last three drafts. We have maybe one or two top of the line up players to show for it. While this sounds bad, it's actually about average. History shows at least 60% of first round picks fail live up to expectations.

So what do we do now? Double down on the rebuild or admit it was a failure and start over?

There is no good or obvious choice here. We have a last place team, a lame duck GM, and multiple unmovable contracts.

I've never been more pessimistic as a CBJ fan.

So you're considering starting another rebuild because the prospects we just drafted (who are 18, 19, and 20) aren't as good as you hoped?

Most NHLers aren't even in the NHL at those ages. Marchenko couldn't even get playing time in the KHL at that age. Look at how much he's improved just from last year, when he was 22.

I don't think we really know what we have yet.

It certainly doesn't justify starting a fresh rebuild. We have to let the players we have grow up. We're already the youngest, let's try not being the youngest anymore and grow up.

 

[tunnelvision]

I've never been more pessimistic as a CBJ fan.

As long as there's hope Jarmo and JD will soon be replaced by smarter leaders, I'm not going to be too depressed about how this season has gone. We have potential long-term 1C and 1D in Fantilli and Jiricek, and plenty of other exciting core/complementary pieces to build around.

Next GM just has to decide on which veterans and prospects to get rid of when the time is right. Then patiently develop young players they've decide to keep, and acquire new players that bring something to the team they currently lack/new management's vision calls for, such as a bottom-pair defensive D with a solid first pass, a middle-6 C that wins faceoffs and plays an interior game or a big fast winger who is strong on the cycle.

For me, the end of Howson era were much darker times.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

The problem with this team is not the kids. That's why I can't even bring myself to be on the tank train again like last year. The kids are the ones driving the bus.

The issues are the veterans. Laine, Gaudreau, and until recently Severson, have given us nothing. Werenski has struggled out of the gate at different areas (it was everything at the start, now it switches from D to offensive issues). Elvis and Martin have been relatively good but Elvis still sneaks in a softy almost every game. I also don't think Jenner has been as good recently, nor has Provorov.

The ones who consistently show up and bring the juice are Fantilli, Marchenko, Voronkov, Kuraly, Texier, and Danforth. The "kid" line and the fourth line. It's a problem when our most consistent defenseman is Gudbranson. The only young players who have struggled to bring something to the table have been KJ, Chinakhov, and Sillinger. Jiricek hasn't been great but he's not been bad either.

And that's why we suck. Our vets are no showing and the kids who don't know how to win or hold a lead in the NHL are driving the bus. On one end, its exciting that our young players are looking this good so early. But the vets issue is a major issue and I think the time has come (when they settle in and start playing better) to trade one of Gaudreau and Laine. Spoiler alert, it should be Laine.

 

[Ice9]

No to a rebuild. Yes to adding a few new tools to the box. Find a way to add 2 hard working vet forwards (dont have to be stars, blue collar guys) to this lineup.

I like Jenner but the man with the C needs to be a force in the room right now. ( he may be trying I dont know)

 

[We Want Ten]

If I woke up as GM I would fire myself and the whole management crew.

Players though? Gotta start with Elvis. He's played tough, but not at the pay level he is at. He's better than Martin I guess, but not by as much as he should be IMO.

 

[majormajor]

The problem with this team is not the kids. That's why I can't even bring myself to be on the tank train again like last year. The kids are the ones driving the bus.

The issues are the veterans. Laine, Gaudreau, and until recently Severson, have given us nothing. Werenski has struggled out of the gate at different areas (it was everything at the start, now it switches from D to offensive issues). Elvis and Martin have been relatively good but Elvis still sneaks in a softy almost every game. I also don't think Jenner has been as good recently, nor has Provorov.

The ones who consistently show up and bring the juice are Fantilli, Marchenko, Voronkov, Kuraly, Texier, and Danforth. The "kid" line and the fourth line. It's a problem when our most consistent defenseman is Gudbranson. The only young players who have struggled to bring something to the table have been KJ, Chinakhov, and Sillinger. Jiricek hasn't been great but he's not been bad either.

And that's why we suck. Our vets are no showing and the kids who don't know how to win or hold a lead in the NHL are driving the bus. On one end, its exciting that our young players are looking this good so early. But the vets issue is a major issue and I think the time has come (when they settle in and start playing better) to trade one of Gaudreau and Laine. Spoiler alert, it should be Laine.

I don't think your final sentences really follow from the rest, in other words I didn't think this was going to lead to "trade Laine". I'd like to hear the argument for that.

I'll say the constant focus on getting Laine going is a distraction and I think the team could benefit from moving on. It's part of why I didn't like the acquisition in the first place, the discussion is always about getting Laine going and the team has to be carefully articulated around him because he is so inconsistent and lacking in versatility.

On the other hand, we probably aren't going to be very good in the near term anyways so why not wait and see if he really can get going. I think obviously it will be a while until he's back to 100%.

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

So you're considering starting another rebuild because the prospects we just drafted (who are 18, 19, and 20) aren't as good as you hoped?

Most NHLers aren't even in the NHL at those ages. Marchenko couldn't even get playing time in the KHL at that age. Look at how much he's improved just from last year, when he was 22.

I don't think we really know what we have yet.

It certainly doesn't justify starting a fresh rebuild. We have to let the players we have grow up. We're already the youngest, let's try not being the youngest anymore and grow up.

I'm not considering anything, I'm not the GM. I'm just pointing out there are no good options for Jarmo or the next GM. We're between a rock and a hard place. The vets aren't worth their contracts and their contracts are unmovable. The kids aren't good enough to come in and take the vets ice time.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I don't think your final sentences really follow from the rest, in other words I didn't think this was going to lead to "trade Laine". I'd like to hear the argument for that.

It’s year, what, 3? Into “trying to get Laine going.” He’s a good guy and I think he can return to his 40 goal form on a team where he can just play a role. He wants to be a star. He’s not, he’s a star shooter only.

Put him on a team where everyone else does the heavy lifting for him and he can just wait for the puck in the offensive zone and I think he’ll thrive. But that clearly won’t be the case here. We have too many soft forwards who turn the puck over a lot. He’s just one of a thousand of them that we have.

 

[Michigan Magic]

It’s year, what, 3? Into “trying to get Laine going.” He’s a good guy and I think he can return to his 40 goal form on a team where he can just play a role. He wants to be a star. He’s not, he’s a star shooter only.

Put him on a team where everyone else does the heavy lifting for him and he can just wait for the puck in the offensive zone and I think he’ll thrive. But that clearly won’t be the case here. We have too many soft forwards who turn the puck over a lot. He’s just one of a thousand of them that we have.

Washington? Once Ovechkin retires he can take his role.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It’s year, what, 3? Into “trying to get Laine going.” He’s a good guy and I think he can return to his 40 goal form on a team where he can just play a role. He wants to be a star. He’s not, he’s a star shooter only.

they had one year of "trying to get him going" and then he got going as evidenced by him being a point-per-game player over the last two years. and he did that as a highly effective playmaker rather than a pure sniper.

they're now four games into "trying to get him going" after a major concussion on a team that is largely fighting the puck lately.

he had the "one-trick pony" label for years. he's not that anymore – he's a well-rounded offensive threat on a team that struggles to generate offense. if they were to send him to a good team, he will be a superstar the second he gets there.

 

[EspenK]

Laine looks like he's still injured and not anywhere close to 100%. He was, when healthy, this team's best player under Larsen. He appears to be trying to hard and he's way too slow right now. It's rough to watch.

Until, and if, he regains his post hit level of play I will continue to be reminded of how Nash was never the same after his concussion issue. Let's hope it won't be the same with Laine.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

they had one year of "trying to get him going" and then he got going as evidenced by him being a point-per-game player over the last two years. and he did that as a highly effective playmaker rather than a pure sniper.

they're now four games into "trying to get him going" after a major concussion on a team that is largely fighting the puck lately.

he had the "one-trick pony" label for years. he's not that anymore – he's a well-rounded offensive threat on a team that struggles to generate offense. if they were to send him to a good team, he will be a superstar the second he gets there.

With the puck in the offensive zone, Laine is mostly fine. It’s everywhere else that’s a problem. Is that worth it? At least with Gaudreau he can get speed and gain the zone to set up the offense. Laine gets going and either tries to toe drag three guys or gets it poked on the entry. Neither one will dump it in and neither will forecheck effectively.

He’s a walking turnover. He’s soft. And he gets injured in the rare occasions when he does try to play physical. Yeah, the Anderson hit was bullshit, dirty, and anyone would have gotten hurt on it. I’m not pinning that on him, but the reputation is there and it is deserved.

 

[majormajor]

With the puck in the offensive zone, Laine is mostly fine. It’s everywhere else that’s a problem. Is that worth it? At least with Gaudreau he can get speed and gain the zone to set up the offense. Laine gets going and either tries to toe drag three guys or gets it poked on the entry. Neither one will dump it in and neither will forecheck effectively.

He’s a walking turnover. He’s soft. And he gets injured in the rare occasions when he does try to play physical. Yeah, the Anderson hit was bullshit, dirty, and anyone would have gotten hurt on it. I’m not pinning that on him, but the reputation is there and it is deserved.

I think Laine has some good defensive qualities but the constant turnovers are maddening. Rough player to play with.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Elvis.

2nd is harder. Johnny has a looong contract and has looked bad. Worrying considering his age. -Laine is younger and on a shorter deal but gets injured and rusty way too easily. Half of his games every year seem to be him trying to find form again. Once he does, he then just gets injured again. Frustrating stuff when he is needed to make playoffs. A team that makes the playoff regardless would be in a better position to have him

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Unfortunately the problem is not just one player. It appears we have two major problems.
1. The guys we gave big contracts to (Elvis, ZW, JG, Laine, Severson) are pretty bad. These players were supposed to be the cornerstones of the rebuild.
2. The prospects aren't as good as many hoped. We've had 6 first round draft picks in the last three drafts. We have maybe one or two top of the line up players to show for it. While this sounds bad, it's actually about average. History shows at least 60% of first round picks fail live up to expectations.

So what do we do now? Double down on the rebuild or admit it was a failure and start over?

There is no good or obvious choice here. We have a last place team, a lame duck GM, and multiple unmovable contracts.

I've never been more pessimistic as a CBJ fan.

For me this seems like a bit doom and gloom state of mind, taking the not directly optimal coaching the last few seasons, but it’s easy for me to say when I started rooting for CBJ when Laine was signed.

I’m not saying that this team will pull a Blues turnaround and shock the league this season (which would be a loooooooong shot), but it’s really improbable that our top guys will misfire or be injured like last season.

That’s the beauty of this league that has 82 regular season games. Things even out regardless of injuries, hot/cold streaks. Last season was a n outlier with man games lost, coupled with somewhat clueless coaching with a fresh HC who was treading water.

Our new and fresh current coach had even less time to prepare for getting prepared for his job at the highest level. Our top guys haven’t put up the expected numbers yet (and it’s not on Laine got headhunted), but the probability for guys like them sucking throughout the season is minimal. If this team had an even mediocre PP many of those 1 game losses would have resulted in points in the standings.

Realistically this team is MUCH better than where we stand right now.

 

[thebus88]

they had one year of "trying to get him going" and then he got going as evidenced by him being a point-per-game player over the last two years. and he did that as a highly effective playmaker rather than a pure sniper.

they're now four games into "trying to get him going" after a major concussion on a team that is largely fighting the puck lately.

he had the "one-trick pony" label for years. he's not that anymore – he's a well-rounded offensive threat on a team that struggles to generate offense. if they were to send him to a good team, he will be a superstar the second he gets there.

Good.

Then he should have high trade value then, correct??

 

[VT]

Laine had two PPG season without TOP players but especially with Jenner, Nyquist in the first season, and 8 lines in the second season with our injuries in defense when often played AHL defense. Better PPG than Johnny. He had the best defensive stats. Do you see a real TOP player there?

Mathews has played with Marner, Nylander and even Tavares (PP) is better than our if only about forwards. McDavid has Dreiseitl and see how many goals/assists has in PP. MacKinnon has Rantanen and Makar etc. Kucherov with Point, Stamkos, Sergachev and, especially, Hedman etc, etc.

And now show me, who players from higher written had similar problems. Did you ask what stats the above players would have with just partners like Patrik? Of course, not. It's easier to pile dirt on Patrik, after all, he always has to be the bad guy.

He is playing after concussion in this season and I have feel than he forgot to hold his stick, he is slow etc. Have you thought about whether this could be the result of a blow to the head, if he is still healthy at all?

 

[cbjthrowaway]

And now show me, who players from higher written had similar problems. Did you ask what stats the above players would have with just partners like Patrik? Of course, not. It's easier to pile dirt on Patrik, after all, he always has to be the bad guy.

on that note, here's a fun little thought exercise:

21-22 and 22-23 totals	Player A (RW)	Player B (RW)
Points per game played	1.02	0.97
Even strength points/game	0.66	0.70

player A is william nylander. player B is patrik laine. despite nylander playing on a significantly better team with elite linemates, patrik laine has actually been more productive at even strength on a per-game basis.

obviously nylander's on fire to start this season. everyone views him as a slam-dunk $11m/year player for his next deal. i don't think that's wrong, but by comparison i think a $8.7m aav is a pretty damn good deal.

He is playing after concussion in this season and I have feel than he forgot to hold his stick, he is slow etc. Have you thought about whether this could be the result of a blow to the head, if he is still healthy at all?

imo it has less to do with the injury itself and more to do with the fact that he missed almost a month, and came back to a team in disarray. personally i think it's ridiculous to not have him playing wing at this point just to ease him back into it.

 

[CBJqck]

Watching Laine play reminds me a lot of Jagr. Not prime Jagr but current 50 year old Jagr. The long reach and how slow he is at everything. Whenever he has the puck it looks like its in slow motion